Southwest surprises, tariff guac shock, and fraud flourishes

Summary

Summary of "Southwest surprises, tariff guac shock, and fraud flourishes" The Indicator from Planet Money
Release Date: March 14, 2025
Hosts: Waylon Wong, Darian Woods, Kenny Malone
Produced by: NPR

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Introduction

In this episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Waylon Wong, Darian Woods, and Kenny Malone delve into three significant economic topics: the alarming rise in fraud losses, Southwest Airlines' surprising policy changes regarding baggage fees, and the intricate dynamics of avocado consumption and related tariffs. The discussion is rich with data, expert insights, and relatable anecdotes, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of these pressing issues.

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Surge in Fraud Losses

Key Statistics and Increase

Waylon Wong opens the discussion by highlighting a staggering rise in fraud-related losses. "My indicator is $12.5 billion. That is how much people lost to fraud in 2020," Wong states at [02:14]. This figure represents a significant 25% increase from the previous year, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current fraud prevention measures.

Types of Scams

Darian Woods references an insightful podcast series by The Economist titled Scam, Inc., emphasizing the issue of underreporting in fraud cases. "An expert that they interviewed there said that you should actually multiply the numbers because of underreporting," Woods explains at [02:34]. This suggests that the actual losses could be considerably higher than official statistics indicate.

Wong elaborates on the most prevalent scam types, particularly imposter scams. "[...] the most commonly reported category is something called an imposter scam. An example of this is when you get a phone call from someone, they say they've detected suspicious activity with your bank account [...]" [03:15]. These scams often involve urgent requests to transfer funds to seemingly secure accounts or to withdraw cash under false pretenses.

Impact on the FTC

The hosts discuss the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) struggle to keep up with the surge in fraud cases. Wong mentions at [03:51], "the FTC later reversed this request. It said, it's fine. So, I don't know. These are confusing times." This indicates potential resource constraints and administrative challenges within the FTC, which could hamper its ability to effectively combat fraud.

Personal Accounts and Advice

Kenny Malone shares a personal sentiment, expressing fear of being defrauded: "Man, I am so scared of getting defrauded. I'll be honest" [04:19]. In response, Wong advises, "Just don't answer your phone" [04:22], noting that interaction over the phone leads to higher financial losses, with a median loss of $1,500 compared to the overall median of $500 [04:26].

Darian Woods reinforces the importance of vigilance by recounting a specific scam attempt: "Once somebody called me and they said, they're from the Department of Homeland Security [...] and then hung up" [04:41]. This example underscores the deceptive tactics scammers employ to gain victims' trust.

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Southwest Airlines' Policy Change

New Baggage Policy

Transitioning to the second major topic, Kenny Malone introduces the change in Southwest Airlines' baggage policy. "My indicator this week is two, because that is the number of suitcases that you will not get to check for free anymore at Southwest Airlines" [04:53]. This marks the end of Southwest's long-standing policy that allowed all passengers to check bags for free.

The Trend of Unbundling

Wong provides context by explaining Southwest's previous stance against unbundling services: "They were saying that, like, we're not the other airlines who are breaking apart the flying experience into all its parts and then asking travelers to pay for things like bags or picking better seats" [06:03]. However, due to financial pressures, including significant layoffs and changes to their open seating policy, Southwest has now joined the industry trend of unbundling services.

Darian Woods aptly summarizes this shift: "So this is the unbundling trend that has taken over airlines and actually a lot of products" [06:16]. The hosts agree that Southwest's policy change signifies the completion of the great unbundling of air travel [06:22].

Implications for Consumers

Kenny Malone points out the immediate implications for travelers: "If you do want to fly for free with a Southwest bag, you do have a chance. Like, the new rules will only apply to flights booked on or after May 28th" [06:43]. This creates a sense of urgency for passengers to adjust their travel plans accordingly, whether by booking early or reconsidering their packing strategies.

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Avocado Consumption and Tariffs

Rise in Avocado Consumption in the US

Darian Woods introduces the topic of avocado consumption with a compelling statistic: "£3 billion of avocados. That's how much avocado Americans are eating each year" [07:05]. The hosts calculate this to mean approximately 20 avocados per person annually, based on an average weight of half a pound per avocado [07:35].

Waylon Wong shares a personal anecdote, reflecting on the cultural shift toward avocados: "I didn't eat an avocado until college. It was probably at a Chipotle or something" [07:39]. Kenny Malone adds that the popularity was bolstered by extensive marketing campaigns, such as "Avocados from Mexico," which significantly increased consumer demand [09:15].

Tariffs and Trade Issues

The conversation shifts to the economic factors influencing avocado prices. Darian Woods explains the current trade tensions: "The US slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. There's been retaliatory tariffs from Canada and the European Union, and the Trump administration is still threatening a 25% tariff on everything from Canada and Mexico, including avocados" [08:40]. Given that approximately 80% of Hass avocados come from Mexico, these tariffs could substantially impact avocado prices and availability.

Wong connects this to historical trade policies, noting that the rise in avocado consumption began when Mexico was permitted to export to the US in 1997 [08:58]. This openness, combined with strategic marketing, laid the foundation for the avocado boom in the United States.

Potential Impact on Prices

Kenny Malone humorously speculates on the consequences: "Avocados from Broward County" [09:56], suggesting that locally grown avocados might not immediately substitute imports. The hosts anticipate that tariffs will likely lead to higher avocado prices, affecting both consumers and the overall market dynamics.

Darian Woods mentions that the widespread tariffs on Mexico are currently on pause until April 2nd, indicating that the situation is still fluid and dependent on ongoing negotiations between the White House and Mexico [09:46].

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Conclusion

The episode adeptly navigates through three distinct yet impactful economic topics:

1. Fraud Losses: The significant uptick in fraud-related losses highlights the growing sophistication of scams and the challenges faced by regulatory bodies like the FTC in combating them. Personal anecdotes and expert insights underscore the necessity for heightened consumer vigilance.

2. Southwest Airlines' Policy Change: The shift away from free checked bags by Southwest Airlines marks a pivotal moment in the airline industry's move toward unbundling services. This change reflects broader economic pressures and has direct implications for travelers' costs and behaviors.

3. Avocado Consumption and Tariffs: The substantial increase in avocado consumption in the US, driven by effective marketing and favorable trade policies, now faces potential setbacks due to rising trade tensions and impending tariffs. This situation exemplifies the delicate interplay between consumer trends and international trade policies.

Overall, the hosts provide a nuanced analysis of each topic, enriched by relevant data, poignant quotes, and engaging dialogue, making the complex economic issues accessible and relatable to listeners.

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Notable Quotes:

• Waylon Wong on fraud losses: "$12.5 billion is how much people lost to fraud in 2020" ([02:14]).
• Darian Woods on underreporting scams: "You should actually multiply the numbers because of underreporting" ([02:34]).
• Kenny Malone describing Southwest's baggage policy change: "My indicator this week is two, because that is the number of suitcases that you will not get to check for free anymore at Southwest Airlines" ([04:53]).
• Darian Woods on avocado tariffs: "The US slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum... including avocados" ([08:40]).
• Waylon Wong reflecting on avocado consumption: "I didn't eat an avocado until college. It was probably at a Chipotle or something" ([07:39]).

Transcript

[NPR Announcer]

Npr.

[Waylon Wong]

This is the Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong here with Darian Woods.

[Darian Woods]

Howdy. And we also have Kenny Malone from Planet Money.

[Waylon Wong]

Kenny.

[Kenny Malone]

Hey, everybody. I'm always happy to be here.

[Darian Woods]

Happy to have you.

[Kenny Malone]

Now, so I'm gonna say Indicators of the Week, right?

[Darian Woods]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Kenny Malone]

Now I've never gotten to say it. Can I just. Can I do the.

[Darian Woods]

Yes.

[Kenny Malone]

I'm here because it's the Indicators of the Week.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, yes, that's right. It is our weekly look at interesting numbers from the news. And this week we have a big jump in losses due to fraud. Uh oh.

[Darian Woods]

I am gonna dive into a bowl of guacamole.

[Kenny Malone]

That sounds horrible. Like Scrooge McDuck.

[Darian Woods]

Awesome and delicious.

[Kenny Malone]

And it's the end of an era. The great unbundling, the paying for bags. No. After the break.

[Commercial Announcer]

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[Kenny Malone]

Indicators of the week. Waylon, would you like to begin?

[Waylon Wong]

I would. My indicator is $12.5 billion. That is how much people lost to fraud in 20, according to data released this week by the Federal Trade Commission. And that's a 25% increase from the previous year. So, I don't know. Do you guys think we're in a golden age of scamming?

[Darian Woods]

I just listened to this amazing podcast series that the Economist did on scams. It's called Scam, Inc. And an expert that they interviewed there said that you should actually multiply the numbers because of underreporting. Like a lot of victims of fraud, don't file a report with an agency like the ftc.

[Waylon Wong]

And I will say this FTC report is Pretty grim throughout the agency. Nancy says more people lost a lot more money last year versus the previous year. The median loss for 2024 was around $500.

[Kenny Malone]

And what are we talking about? Like, stolen credit cards? Like, people getting called and handing over shoeboxes full of money in parks? Like, what are we doing here?

[Waylon Wong]

It's closer to the latter.

[Kenny Malone]

Oh, really?

[Waylon Wong]

Yes. The FTC says the most commonly reported category is something called an imposter scam. An example of this is when you get a phone call from someone, they say they've detected suspicious with your bank account, and they'll say, we're going to help you. Just transfer your money into this other bank account or into this cryptocurrency account, or go to the ATM and get cash out and put it in a shoebox and meet us at the park.

[Darian Woods]

Very normal.

[Kenny Malone]

Is it possible that some of the federal cuts will impede the FTC's ability to, I don't know, like, track these down, stop these? Like, what do we know about that?

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, it looks like the FTC is maybe having staffing issues. I read some news reports this week that there's this one case it's pursuing in federal court against a company, and initially it asked the judge to delay the trial because of an extreme shortfall in money and staff. But then consistent with some of the back and forth and back again we're seeing on so many things these days, the FTC later reversed this request. It said, it's fine. So, I don't know. These are confusing times.

[Kenny Malone]

Man, I am so scared of getting defrauded. I'll be honest.

[Waylon Wong]

Just don't answer your phone. Don't answer your.

[Kenny Malone]

Honestly, I think that's about where I'm at.

[Waylon Wong]

Yes, well, you know, because actually, the FTC says people lose more money when they interact with scammers over the phone versus text or emails. The median loss for a phone scam is $1,500, which is way more than the overall median loss.

[Darian Woods]

Once somebody called me and they said, they're from the Department of Homeland Security. And I said, really? And the guy said, yes, and then hung up.

[Kenny Malone]

Jesus.

[Waylon Wong]

Okay, that's not a very good scammer.

[Darian Woods]

Extremely convincing liar over here, Kenny. Tell us about bag fees.

[Kenny Malone]

My indicator this week is two, because that is the number of suitcases that you will not get to check for free anymore at Southwest Airlines. Now, I flew Southwest with my kids on Monday, literally this week, in part because kids require an annoying amount of luggage, and Southwest has a bags fly free policy. And. And Then literally the next day, on Tuesday, they announce a new policy. Actually, not all bags fly free.

[Waylon Wong]

Uh, yeah, that's a less catchy policy name, I will say.

[Kenny Malone]

Well, that is. Those words are mine, I suppose. But the news here is that Southwest was, like, the last holdout, the last airline letting all passengers check bags for free. But now only passengers with fancy tickets or Southwest credit cards or special status will get free checked bags. And the reason that this is noteworthy is because not doing this kind of stuff was Southwest's identity. They even coined and trademarked a term. Are you ready for it? Transferency transfer.

[Darian Woods]

Yeah. A transparent fare.

[Kenny Malone]

Yes, that's right. Like, basically, they were saying that, like, we're not the other airlines who are breaking apart the flying experience into all its parts and then asking travelers to pay for things like bags or picking better seats or whatever it may be.

[Darian Woods]

Okay, so this is the unbundling trend that has taken over airlines and actually a lot of products.

[Waylon Wong]

A lot of products, exactly. Yeah.

[Kenny Malone]

That is exactly right. But Southwest has been under pressure to increase profits. They announced big layoffs, and last year, they even said that they would stop doing their famous open seating policy. And now with the bags not flying free for everyone, I think you can argue that, like, the great unbundling of air travel is complete. We have reached it.

[Darian Woods]

It's a milestone.

[Kenny Malone]

If you do want to fly for free with a Southwest bag, you do have a chance. Like, the new rules will only apply to flights booked on or after May 28th.

[Darian Woods]

Get planning, get booking, or I guess, get more efficient in your packing or.

[Kenny Malone]

Get rid of your kids. Don't bring the kids as you get their advice. Yes. For our final indicator, Darian woods, what have you brought us?

[Darian Woods]

My indicator is £3 billion of avocados.

[NPR Announcer]

Whoa.

[Darian Woods]

That's how much avocado Americans are eating each year.

[Kenny Malone]

Oh, that's a good amount. What is that? That's like 9 or 10 pound of avocados per American. Is that right? Yeah.

[Waylon Wong]

How many avocados is that? How much does an avocado weigh? They kind of weigh a lot.

[Kenny Malone]

I give it a quarter pound. Half a pound.

[Waylon Wong]

They're half.

[Darian Woods]

That's. I actually looked this up. It's about half a pound. And so if you multiply that nine or ten by two, you get maybe a little less than 20 avocados a year per person.

[Kenny Malone]

I'm doing way more than 20 avocados a year.

[Darian Woods]

Yeah.

[Waylon Wong]

Okay. Some people probably don't eat any avocados.

[Darian Woods]

Who are these people?

[Waylon Wong]

I feel like I didn't eat an avocado until college. It was probably at a Chipotle or something, you know.

[Kenny Malone]

You paid extra for the avocado.

[Waylon Wong]

I paid. Guac is extra. Guac is extra. That's what we call the great bundling.

[Darian Woods]

In you words alone, Waylon. Basically, in the late 1990s and the early 2000s, you had a huge rocketing up of avocado imports into the US that 3 billion pounds of avocado consumption is up from only like 4 or 500 million pounds a year in the 80s and 90s.

[Kenny Malone]

So we are eating more avocados. That is. That's the indicator that you brought us, or is there a news peg to this? Maybe tariff related, I assume.

[Darian Woods]

Well, yes, as you may have guessed, it's a tariff related story. We've had all kinds of trade war news this week. The US slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. There's been retaliatory tariffs from Canada and the European Union, and the Trump administration is still threatening a 25% tariff on everything from Canada and Mexico, including avocados.

[Kenny Malone]

Well, so you're saying that we've become addicted to avocados and now tariffs are going to raise the price of avocados?

[Darian Woods]

Yeah. I read in the Wall Street Journal this week that the whole reason we had that rise of avocado culture in America was that Mexico was only allowed to export to the US in 1997.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, well, that makes sense. Why? You know, I don't even remember seeing them at the grocery store so much. You know, I live in the Midwest. We don't grow avocados here locally, so.

[Kenny Malone]

Not with that attitude you don't. But I also, you will remember there was a huge marketing campaign too. It was avocados from Mexico. It was like a whole thing.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, I don't remember that.

[Kenny Malone]

It was a big, huge campaign on the super bowl, et cetera. It was like a big effort to get Americans into avocados because they're awesome.

[Waylon Wong]

Well, it works socially and working. Gangbusters. Goodness.

[Kenny Malone]

Yeah, it did work very well. And now it appears we are going to pay the price because like 80% of Hassa avocados or something come from Mexico. Is that right?

[Darian Woods]

Yeah, that's correct. And so for now, the widespread tariffs on Mexico are on pause until April 2nd. We will have to see whether the White House and Mexico can make a deal that keeps avocados cheap and plentiful.

[Kenny Malone]

Well, I mean, let me just say there are other avocados. I was in Florida for a long time. Everybody hates the Florida avocado But maybe it's the moment. Maybe it's the Florida avocado moment. They're gigantic.

[Waylon Wong]

They just need a jingle, I think. What do you think?

[Kenny Malone]

Avocados from Broward County.

[Waylon Wong]

Good, good. Very catchy.

[Kenny Malone]

No, not quite.

[Darian Woods]

Avocados from New Jersey or New Jersey. Thank you so much, Kenny. This was indicators of the week.

[Kenny Malone]

Pack your bags full of avocados and check them while you can.

[Darian Woods]

And don't get scammed.

[Waylon Wong]

And don't get scammed.

[Kenny Malone]

Don't get scammed.

[Darian Woods]

This episode was produced by Angel Carreras with engineering by Kwesi Lee. It was fact checked by Cyril Juarez. Cake and Canon edits the show and the Indicators production of npr.

[NPR Announcer]

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