Podcast Summary: The Indicator from Planet Money

Episode: "Tariffs. Consumer Sentiment. Cape Ratio. Pick The Indicator of The Year!"

Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Darian Woods (B), with Kenny Malone (C) and Greg Rosalski (D)
Length: ~10 minutes

Episode Overview

In this festive, fast-paced episode, the Planet Money team gathers to crown the most important "economic indicator" of 2025 through a spirited “family feud”-style debate. Each participant champions a different metric — consumer sentiment, tariffs, and the CAPE ratio — using humor, banter, and economic insight to make their case. At the end, listeners are invited to vote for their favorite.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Consumer Sentiment (Kenny Malone) [02:43–04:24]

• Argument:
  Kenny brings back consumer sentiment as his pick for indicator of the year, noting its enduring relevance despite repeated appearances in previous years.
  • References the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index:
    • Pre-pandemic: ~100 (steady optimism)
    • This year: “It’s been in the 50s this year. Historic lows.” (03:22)
  • Emphasizes the psychological aspect of economics:

    “It’s the economy, stupid. ...No, it’s what people feel about the economy.” (02:46)

• Key Insight:
  Consumer sentiment is described as “the canary in the coal mine … chirping louder and louder over the last three years. Or I guess chirping less and less is how canaries work in the coal mine.” (03:44)
• Notable Moment:
  Kenny humorously admits to reusing old scripts, highlighting the persistent anxiety about the economy.

2. Tariffs (Greg Rosalski) [04:29–05:57]

• Argument:
  Greg asserts that tariffs are 2025’s defining economic story, mentioning unprecedented tariff hikes and their wide-ranging consequences.
  • Recalls “Liberation Day” and President Trump’s imposition of very high tariffs, including on obscure territories.
  • Impact:
    • “Stock market freaked out.”
    • Ongoing drama: “Costco just filed a freaking lawsuit against the Trump administration over them.” (05:12)
    • Suggests a structural change: “We’re talking like a paradigm shift for the economy.”
    • Quantifies the scale: “In 2024, the average effective tariff rate that U.S. consumers faced was 2.5%. That number is now 16.8%. That’s the highest tariffs have been since 1935.” (05:33)
    • Notes unresolved legal questions about the constitutionality of executive-imposed tariffs: “The Supreme Court is expected to rule on this issue soon. Talk about a year-end cliffhanger.” (05:52)
• Notable Moment:
  The group jokes about Costco packaging their lawsuit “in a box that was like previously used for oversized olive oil containers.” (06:04)

3. CAPE Ratio (Darian Woods) [06:19–08:41]

• Argument:
  Darian takes a theatrical approach, donning a cape and Dracula persona to represent the “CAPE ratio” (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio) as the scariest economic signal of the year.
  • “The higher the CAPE ratio, the more expensive stocks are. And this indicator is the highest it’s ever been apart from just before the dot com crash. And that is as frightening as any horror story because when stocks are this expensive, they tend to underperform over time.” (06:56)
  • Links CAPE to:
    • AI-fueled stock market boom
    • Fears of a bubble
    • Economic inequality (“the K-shaped economy”): “The rich, who tend to own a lot of stocks, are getting richer and the poor are struggling.” (07:27)
    • Underlying weakness: “Everyday people are the ones who have to buy things so that companies can get earnings. And at the moment, earnings are not growing fast enough to keep stocks looking cheap.” (08:20)
• Notable Moment:
  Darian’s Dracula impression and the team’s playful debate over whether the “cape” is Superman or Dracula, leading to:

  “The optimists would see Superman. The pessimist might see Dracula sucking the blood out of the rest of the economy.” (08:04)

  • Joking about “propping up the AI economy with multiple subscriptions” to ChatGPT. (08:41)

4. Humor & Team Banter [Throughout]

• The debate is interspersed with running gags about countdowns, script mishaps, and good-natured teasing.
• Kenny, Greg, and Darian riff about each other's presentation styles, costumes, and economic metaphors.
• Notable comedic exchange:

  “You gotta prop up the AI economy with multiple [ChatGPT] subscriptions, Darian.” (08:41, C)

• The team ends with Darian’s Dracula impression, delighting the group and swaying some opinions.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:43] — Kenny’s consumer sentiment pitch
• [04:29] — Greg’s tariffs argument
• [06:56] — Darian’s CAPE ratio case (with Dracula act)
• [08:41] — Team jokes about AI subscriptions and Dracula impressions

Notable Quotes

• On Consumer Sentiment:

  "Consumer sentiment is the canary in the coal mine, and it’s been chirping louder and louder over the last three years. Or I guess chirping less and less is how canaries work."
  — Kenny Malone [03:44]

• On Tariffs:

  “This story, it’s historic. ... The average effective tariff rate that U.S. consumers faced was 2.5%. That number is now 16.8%. That’s the highest tariffs have been since 1935.”
  — Greg Rosalski [05:33]

• On the CAPE Ratio:

  “This indicator is the highest it’s ever been apart from just before the dot com crash. And that is as frightening as any horror story because when stocks are this expensive, they tend to underperform over time.”
  — Darian Woods [06:56]

• On Economic Metaphors:

  "The optimists would see Superman ... The pessimist might see Dracula sucking the blood out of the rest of the economy."
  — Darian Woods [08:04]

Conclusion: Listener Call to Action

Listeners are encouraged to vote for their favorite indicator by emailing or commenting on Instagram.

“So listen, those are your three options... We have consumer sentiment, we have tariffs, and we have... say it again, Darian?”
“The CAPE Fray show!”
— Kenny Malone & Darian Woods [09:24–09:28]

Tone & Style

• Playful, witty, and packed with economic insight.
• The team’s convivial rivalry and banter make serious topics accessible and engaging.

For listeners who missed it:
This episode is a quick, entertaining tour of 2025’s defining economic data points, from the collective mood (consumer sentiment), to sweeping trade policy (tariffs), to looming stock market risks (CAPE ratio)—all delivered with the show’s signature humor and a dash of Dracula.