The anxiety rattling China’s youth

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Anxiety Rattling China’s Youth
The Indicator from Planet Money (NPR) | March 4, 2026
Host: Waylon Wong
Guest: Jennifer Pak (NPR’s China Correspondent)
Duration: ~8 minutes (non-content sections and ads omitted)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the current economic mood in China, focusing on the anxieties and challenges facing its youth. Jennifer Pak, NPR’s China correspondent, unpacks the sluggish domestic consumption, high youth unemployment, and evolving growth strategies against the backdrop of the National People's Congress and the announcement of China’s 2026 GDP growth target. The discussion also addresses the broader structural shifts in China’s economy, the push for self-sufficiency, and the tensions arising from the country's industrial policies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Blind Boxes as a Metaphor for Uncertainty

• [00:11] Waylon Wong introduces the episode with a discussion about “blind boxes”—small, inexpensive collectibles popular with Chinese youth.
  • Jennifer Pak: “Those are really kind of quick things that you can buy that doesn't cost a lot but makes you feel really satisfied for a bit until you know the next fixing is needed.” ([00:35])
• These boxes reflect the immediate, fleeting satisfactions sought by young consumers with limited spending power, illustrating the undercurrent of economic unease.

2. Shift in Economic Mood Among Chinese Youth

• [02:39] Jennifer Pak contrasts today’s atmosphere with the optimism of 20 years ago, when China’s middle class was booming.
  • Jennifer Pak: “Consumers are a bit more reserved, deflated. I mean, one economist even described them as depressed because youth unemployment is very high… and homeowners, and that's the majority of households, they're feeling a lot poorer because probably property prices have been dropping for four years plus.” ([02:46])

3. Purpose & Impact of China’s GDP Target

• [03:36] Pak explains the origins of China's annual GDP target system and its enduring influence.
  • Jennifer Pak: “These GDP targets…are really signals for entrepreneurs and investors to know where to put their money at…It's also a signal for normal people to know what to expect next.” ([03:36])

4. Comparison with U.S. Economic Policy

• [04:11] Wong notes the contrast with the U.S., which lacks a set GDP growth target, emphasizing full employment and price stability instead.

5. Reliability of Economic Data

• [04:29] China almost always hits its GDP target, except for rare disruptions (e.g., 2022 COVID lockdowns), but Pak and others question the methods and authenticity.
  • Jennifer Pak: “There is, of course, a lot of debate about the reliability of Chinese data and also whether GDP is really a good measure of economic activity…” ([04:49])
  • Memorable anecdote: Pak recounts an economist’s joke about local officials repeatedly building and redoing roads, all of which counts toward GDP but "doesn’t necessarily add value." ([04:58])

6. Two-Track Economy: Domestic Weakness vs. Export Strength

• [05:51] While domestic consumption stalls, exports (including high-tech products) are booming.
  • Jennifer Pak: “China's trade surplus still hit a record $1.2 trillion last year.” ([06:13])
• The IMF urges China to shift toward consumption-led growth, but demographic and social challenges impede this transition.
  • Young Chinese, preoccupied with job insecurities, are postponing major life milestones like marriage, home-buying, and starting families, all of which constrain internal consumption.

7. Growth Targets and Political Legitimacy

• [07:25] Recent growth rates have slowed to around 5% from historic double digits.
  • Jennifer Pak: “That's when President Xi Jinping says China needs to achieve socialist modernization. It sounds super vague, but state media have actually put a number to it. They're going to have to grow on average over 4% a year. So this is something that China has to fulfill because that's how they gain their legitimacy from the populace without elections.” ([07:37])

8. China’s Strategic Economic Blueprint

• [08:15] The five-year plan doubles down on industrial manufacturing and tech innovation, especially self-sufficiency in response to U.S. tech restrictions.
  • Jennifer Pak: “Now that's very good for the national security part of China. But the big question that I have is what does that mean for jobs? Because those two industries are not creating human jobs. And honestly, when I talk to people on the street, job anxiety is, you know, at the top of their list of anxiety.” ([08:25])
• Record numbers of graduates (>12 million) are entering a labor market with high double-digit youth unemployment and increasingly limited options for well-paying work.

9. Social Phenomena: "Lying Flat" (Tangping)

• [09:31] The “lying flat” (tangping) movement is discussed as a symbol of youth disillusionment.
  • Jennifer Pak: “While people say they are tang pining or laying flat, really it might mean I'm not gonna do 12 hours a day. I might do 10 hours a day.” ([09:31])

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the change in consumer psyche:
  “Consumers are a bit more reserved, deflated. I mean, one economist even described them as depressed because youth unemployment is very high…”
  — Jennifer Pak ([02:46])

• On the function of GDP targets:
  “Now, these days, China's economy is much more mixed, but the state still plays a very big role in it. So these GDP targets, as well as the key sectors it lists, are really signals for entrepreneurs and investors to know where to put their money at.”
  — Jennifer Pak ([03:36])

• On the reliability of economic growth numbers:
  “There is, of course, a lot of debate about the reliability of Chinese data and also whether GDP is really a good measure of economic activity, because...there's a classic joke…the next official comes along and says, no, I don't like it...let's redo it. And every step of the way that counts towards GDP, but it doesn't necessarily add value.”
  — Jennifer Pak ([04:49])

• On youth despair and consumption:
  “They're either not thinking about marriage or, or they don't want to get married or have a family. And that by extension means that they're not going to be looking for the apartments near the good school...They might not even get a car.”
  — Jennifer Pak ([06:25])

• On “lying flat”:
  “While people say they are tang pining or laying flat, really it might mean I'm not gonna do 12 hours a day. I might do 10 hours a day.”
  — Jennifer Pak ([09:31])

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Key Timestamps

• 00:11 Blind boxes and their popularity among Chinese youth
• 02:39 Shift in consumer mood compared to 20 years ago
• 03:36 Purpose and significance of GDP targets
• 04:29 Questioning the reliability and methods behind GDP achievement
• 05:51 China's dual economy: sluggish domestic consumption vs. booming exports
• 07:25 Explaining China’s current and required growth rates for legitimacy
• 08:15 Five-year economic blueprint: industrial and technological self-sufficiency
• 09:31 The “lying flat” (tangping) movement among youth

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Summary of Tone

The episode combines reflective, first-person reporting from Jennifer Pak with a conversational tone led by Waylon Wong. It balances clarity with nuanced, sometimes wry skepticism about headline economic figures, while maintaining empathy for the anxieties of China’s younger generation. The discussion is accessible, insightful, and brisk, designed for a general audience seeking context on current Chinese economic and social dynamics.

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For additional reporting on China’s economic outlook and youth sentiment, follow Jennifer Pak on NPR throughout the National People’s Congress.

Transcript

[Jennifer Pak]

Npr.

[Waylon Wong]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong. So my teenage daughter and her friends are really into blind boxes these days. They're small collectibles, often vinyl figurines, and they come packaged so that you don't know exactly which one you'll get. The fun is in the unboxing. And these blind boxes are also really popular in China. That's what NPR correspondent Jennifer Pack tells us.

[Jennifer Pak]

So those are really kind of quick things that you can buy that doesn't cost a lot but makes you feel really satisfied for a bit until you know the next fixing is needed.

[Waylon Wong]

Jennifer says one reason that blind boxes are hot in China is that people, especially young people, don't have a lot of money to spend. Consumption's been sluggish. The this is the backdrop this week as the Chinese government unveils its 2026 target for economic growth. Thousands of representatives are gathering for the National People's Congress. The government will announce its gross domestic product target for the year and outline a plan for how to get there. It's like its own kind of blind box reveal, but with much higher stakes for both China and the U.S. given the ongoing trade war and race for technological dominance. Today on the show, Jennifer Pack tells us about the challenges facing China's economic policymakers.

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[Waylon Wong]

Jennifer Pak, NPR's China correspondent, you have been roaming the streets of Beijing recently. What's the economic mood like?

[Jennifer Pak]

I would say it's very different from 20 years ago when I first came to Beijing to work. You know, back then we were Talking about what our Chinese consumers buying. It's the new middle class, you know, what kind of cars are they buying for the first time? What kind of luxury goods are they binging on? We even went to training schools for butlers because there's so many wealthy people now. I would say consumers are a bit more reserved, deflated. I mean, one economist even described them as depressed because youth unemployment is very high and even those people who have a job, wages aren't rising, and homeowners, and that's the majority of households, they're feeling a lot poorer because probably property prices have been dropping for four years plus.

[Waylon Wong]

So it's against this backdrop that the Chinese government will be releasing its GDP target, which will be a range, Right, for this year. Can you talk a little bit about why the Chinese government releases the GDP target? Sure.

[Jennifer Pak]

This system was adopted from the Soviet Union when China's economy was planned, and this was a goal for everyone to work towards. Now, these days, China's economy is much more mixed, but the state still plays a very big role in it. So these GDP targets, as well as the key sectors it lists, are really signals for entrepreneurs and investors to know where to put their money at. Because guess what, if China's government says, hey, we're into green energy, if you bring a project on oil and gas, maybe you're not going to get speedy approvals. Same time. It's also a signal for normal people to know what to expect next.

[Waylon Wong]

In the US of course, it's a really different approach. Right. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and full employment. And it has an inflation target, but not a target for overall economic activity like China does. So how often does China hit the GDP goal that it announces?

[Jennifer Pak]

Almost always. I mean, except for 2022. Yeah, except for 2022, when there was a. There were really severe lockdowns during COVID But usually when China sets a target, it hits it. Now, how it does this is once it announces this goal, everyone moves in lockstep to try to achieve this goal. And let's say it's fall short. The government will then come up with something to juice the economy. Like when consumption was faltering, they came up with a program that's sort of like the cash for clunkers, which is essentially like 15, 20% discount subsidized by the government to upgrade your old fridges or your cell phones. There is, of course, a lot of debate about the reliability of Chinese data and also whether GDP is really a good measure of economic activity, because an Economics professor David Lee from Tsinghua University once told me, there's a classic joke in where a local official will come and say, let's build a road. The next official comes along and says, no, I don't like it. I don't like how it's built. Like, let's redo it. And every step of the way that counts towards gdp, but it doesn't necessarily add value.

[Waylon Wong]

GDP shows us how the economy is doing on average. It's a very broad measure and some sectors do better than others. And so what does the economy look like for China right now as you're drilling down into certain sectors?

[Jennifer Pak]

It's very much a two track economy. So domestically, like I mentioned, consumption is a bit sluggish, but exports, they're booming. China's not just manufacturing small goods, it's also manufacturing, you know, very high tech products, drones, cars. So somehow, despite all of the tit for tat tariffs with the US, China's trade surplus still hit a record $1.2 trillion last year. Now the International Monetary Fund says China cannot keep relying on exports to drive economy because it says its trading partners, they're really being hurt by this. We've seen the US and Europe for example, really hammering hard at Chinese exporters. The IMF though has very much encouraged China recently to prioritize consumption led growth. But like we said, it's very difficult because, you know, when I was speaking to young people, whether they're in Beijing or Shanghai, without prompting, they bring up the fact that they're either not thinking about marriage or, or they don't want to get married or have a family. And that by extension means that they're not going to be looking for the apartments near the good school. It means they're not going to furnish that apartment with household appliances and furniture. They might not even get a car.

[Waylon Wong]

Right. And this is a challenge because as you mentioned, the IMF wants more of China's economic growth to be led by consumption. In other words, an increase in gross domestic product should come more from people buying fridges and couches and not from say exports or investment. So what is a typical growth rate for China?

[Jennifer Pak]

Yeah, I mean, in the past, like decades ago we were looking at double digit growth, but in the last five years, I'd say it's more about 5%.

[Waylon Wong]

What's that number in context for China? 5% growth rate.

[Jennifer Pak]

Well, okay, so remember we go back to how the economy is mixed and they need to set a goal. So this goal kind of works towards a target of 2035. That's when President Xi Jinping says China needs to achieve socialist modernization. It sounds super vague, but state media have actually put a number to it. They're going to have to grow on average over 4% a year. So this is something that China has to fulfill because that's how they gain their legitimacy from the populace without elections.

[Waylon Wong]

And Beijing also has a five year economic plan. What does that look like?

[Jennifer Pak]

This is going to be an economic blueprint for China's economy until 2030. It comes down to two things. China is going to double down on industrial manufacturing and also tech innovation, especially when it comes to self sufficiency, because tensions with the US has shown that, you know, the US wants to cut off the semiconductors and high end technology from it, so it needs to rely on its own. Now that's very good for the national security part of China. But the big question that I have is what does that mean for jobs? Because those two industries are not creating human jobs. And honestly, when I talk to people on the street, job anxiety is, you know, at the top of their list of anxiety. And by the way, it's not, it's not a lack of jobs in China. It's really the jobs that pay well. Okay, that's lacking. So this year we're looking at another record 12 million graduates. That's going to be very tough. They're looking at double digit unemployment rates and they're being now told, hey, you should be happy with a mediocre job and maybe you can even go back to the factories.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah. What is the term for lying flat? Is that the phrase that's used for kind of this, this middle age or this ennui that the younger generation gets accused of having?

[Jennifer Pak]

Sure. In Chinese it's called tangping, which literally means laying flat. But I have to say I think it's a mischaracterization because the average work week in China is still, I think, what is that, like 48 hours a week? That's well above, I think in the US it's like 34 hours. Okay, so while people say they are tang pining or laying flat, really it might mean I'm not gonna do 12 hours a day. I might do 10 hours a day.

[Waylon Wong]

Yes. Stick it to the man. Well, thanks very much and hope to have you you back on the show soon.

[Jennifer Pak]

Oh, absolutely. Thank you so much. This is fun.

[Waylon Wong]

That is Jennifer Pack, NPR's China correspondent. The National People's Congress starts today and you can follow Jennifer's coverage here on NPR. This episode was produced by Cooper, Katz, McKim and engineered by Jimmy Keeley. It was fact checked by Angel Carreras. Kate Concannon is our editor, and the Indicator is a production of npr.