Podcast Summary: The Indicator from Planet Money

Episode: We resolve to watch these 2026 indicators
Air Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Waylon Wong, Stephen Pisaha, Cooper Katz McKim

Overview:

In this kickoff episode for 2026, the Indicator team picks three key economic data points—or “indicators”—to keep a close eye on throughout the year. Building on the prior episode’s lively debate about which indicator best captured 2025, the hosts look forward, each selecting what they believe will most shape the economic story in the months ahead. Their choices reflect ongoing shifts in interest rates, affordability issues (especially electricity costs), and the evolving nature of consumer spending.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap of "Indicator of the Year 2025"

• The team humorously recalls a recent episode where Darian Woods, Greg Rosalski, and Kenny Malone debated which economic indicator best represented 2025.
  • Darian advocated for the Cape ratio in a Dracula costume, Kenny for consumer sentiment, and Greg for tariffs.
  • Listener votes determined the winner—and “tariffs” edged out by just five votes.
  • Quote: “The indicator of the year chosen by you, the listener, was tariffs by just five votes. Congratulations to one Greg Wazalski…” (Stephen, 01:02)

2. Indicator #1: The Federal Funds Rate & Federal Reserve Decisions

• Selected by: Waylon Wong
• Timestamps: 02:46–04:53
• 2026 will see the end of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair (scheduled for May), with renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve’s independence.
• President Trump has been public about wanting lower interest rates—and suggested on Truth Social that “anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed chairman.” (03:48)
• There are ongoing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts.
• Supreme Court is set to hear arguments about the attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reflecting broader tensions.
• Unemployment and GDP data are sending mixed signals, and high inflation remains a concern.
  • Quote: “The Fed would have a pretty tricky job even without this added pressure from the President.” (Waylon, 04:41)
• Why it matters: “That is why I think interest rates and the Fed will be the economic story to watch in 2026.” (Waylon, 04:53)

3. Indicator #2: Electricity Rates & Affordability

• Selected by: Stephen Pisaha
• Timestamps: 04:56–06:52
• While other affordability metrics (like food and housing) are calming down, electricity prices climbed nearly 7%—outpacing overall inflation, which is under 3%.
  • Quote: “For a long time, electric rates in the US have pretty stable for like, 20ish years, but recently… electric prices have jumped about 7%.” (Stephen, 05:23)
• Primary factor: surging demand from AI and data centers, which need massive amounts of power.
  • Quote: “The data centers that power AI need a lot of, you know, power. And that extra demand is leading to higher electric rates.” (Stephen, 06:12)
• Additional pressures stem from grid infrastructure needs and increased costs from climate-related natural disasters (like wildfires).
• Households that use electricity for heating could see costs jump by about 12% this winter.
• Why it matters: All factors suggest that rising electricity rates will remain a key affordability challenge in 2026.

4. Indicator #3: Consumer Spending & the Resilient “Top 10%”

• Selected by: Cooper Katz McKim
• Timestamps: 07:05–08:56
• 2025 saw consumer spending remain strong despite historically poor consumer sentiment (down 30% year-over-year).
• The “top 10%” of households, earning $200,000 or more, are driving much of this spending, masking the struggles of lower-income groups.
  • Quote: “Just the top 10% of consumers account for a near majority of consumer spending, according to global bank RBC.” (Cooper, 07:41)
  • “Yeah, there is that K shape economy coming on back for us.” (Stephen, 07:56)
• These high earners benefit from both labor income and accruing gains from rising home values and a strong stock market.
• At the same time, “auto loan delinquencies [and] credit card debt…are both at record highs.” (Waylon, 08:09)
• The episode questions whether this spending at the top can “keep the good times rolling,” with the answer hinging on continued stock market strength and favorable tax policy.
  • Quote: “A stock market correction would be bad for consumer spending no matter what. But right now it would have a particularly big impact.” (Cooper, 08:46)
• The metaphor of “trickle-down economics” is discussed wryly as the hosts wonder how sustainable this trend is.
  • Quote: “It’s going to be fine. It’s going to trickle down. It’s going to trickle down.” (Waylon, 09:02)
  • “I’ll have my cup out and ready.” (Stephen, 09:04)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Flying cars, karate kicking robots, guaranteed. Today on the show, we’ll bring you three indicators that could shape 2026.”
  — Waylon Wong (01:38)
• “2025 felt like this really big year for the Fed and feels like 2026 could be even bigger. I mean, it is the end of the Jerome Powell era.”
  — Stephen Pisaha (03:25)
• “Almost certainly, yeah. I mean, for a long time, electric rates in the US have pretty stable for like, 20ish years. But recently…electric prices have jumped about 7%.”
  — Stephen Pisaha (05:23)
• “So just the top 10% of consumers account for a near majority of consumer spending, according to global bank RBC.”
  — Cooper Katz McKim (07:41)
• “Yeah, there is that K shape economy coming on back for us.”
  — Stephen Pisaha (07:56)
• “It’s going to be fine. It’s going to trickle down. It’s going to trickle down.”
  — Waylon Wong (09:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & “Indicator of 2025” Recap: 00:12–01:38
• Indicator #1: Federal Funds Rate: 02:46–04:53
• Indicator #2: Electricity Rates: 04:56–06:52
• Indicator #3: Consumer Spending: 07:05–08:56
• Hosts’ Closing Remarks: 08:56–09:18

Tone & Style

Light-hearted, punchy, and conversational, as is classic for The Indicator. The hosts blend humor (references to flying cars and “New Zealand Dracula”) with clear economic explanations and a focus on the practical impact of these trends for listeners in 2026.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode highlights three major economic signposts for 2026: how the Fed will navigate interest rates under new leadership and political pressure, why electricity bills may keep rising (hint: AI is only part of the story), and how “K-shaped” consumer spending could shape the economy—especially if the top 10% falter. The hosts’ friendly rivalry, memorable quotes, and real-world data make for a lively, quick listen packed with insight.