What a second Trump term could mean for SpaceX

Summary

Summary of "What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for SpaceX"

The Indicator from Planet Money dives deep into the potential implications of a second Trump administration on Elon Musk's aerospace giant, SpaceX. Hosted by Weyland Wong and featuring insights from NPR's Science Desk correspondent Jeff Brumfield, this episode explores SpaceX's ambitious launch plans, environmental concerns surrounding their operations in Texas, and the expected shifts in regulatory and financial landscapes under Trump's leadership.

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1. SpaceX's Ambitious 2024 Launches

Weyland Wong introduces the episode by highlighting SpaceX's prolific achievements in 2024:

"Elon Musk's aerospace company SpaceX is capping off a busy 2024. It's launched more than 115 rockets into orbit so far, with plans for even more next year." [00:11]

SpaceX's latest endeavor, the Starship program, aims for rapid reusability with the goal of launching up to three times daily. Despite setbacks, including a recent launch attended by President Elect Donald Trump where a booster landed in the Gulf of Mexico due to launch tower damage, SpaceX remains undeterred.

Jeff Brumfield elaborates on the technical aspirations:

"The idea here is very, very rapid reusability. If you catch the booster, you just lower it back on the launch pad, fill it back up with gas, and then you can go and, you know, Elon Musk says he wants this thing launching as often as three times a day." [00:45]

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2. Environmental Impact in Texas

The conversation shifts to the environmental ramifications of SpaceX's operations in Boca Chica, Texas. Jeff Brumfield describes his firsthand experience visiting the launch site:

"It's really a fascinating place to visit because it sits about a half hour outside of Brownsville along this two-lane highway... home to hundreds of bird species, including many that stop over during migrations to Central and South America." [04:14]

However, the intensive launch activities have disrupted the local ecosystem. The first flight test of Starship in April 2023 caused significant environmental damage:

"The first flight of Starship was particularly damaging to the local environment because the rocket was so powerful. It actually blew a hole in its launch pad." [05:48]

A critical oversight by SpaceX was the absence of a water deluge system, which is essential for suppressing rocket engine power and minimizing debris. Without it, harmful chemicals from the rocket exhaust contaminated wetlands, leading to violations of the Clean Water Act and subsequent fines:

"This is designed to suppress the power of the rocket engines... it does contain some harmful chemicals... it violates the Clean Water Act." [06:16]

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3. Regulatory Landscape Under a Second Trump Term

With Donald Trump potentially steering the administration again, the regulatory environment for SpaceX is poised for transformation. Jeff Brumfield discusses anticipated changes:

"The FAA and the EPA will not be raising flags as they have been these last couple of years." [07:19]

Lori Garver, a former NASA deputy administrator under Barack Obama, opines that regulatory agencies may adopt a more lenient stance, accelerating SpaceX's launch schedule. Nevertheless, ongoing lawsuits from environmental groups against the FAA for inadequate environmental assessments indicate that some barriers will persist.

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4. Financial Implications and Government Contracts

A second Trump term could also influence the financial dynamics of SpaceX, particularly concerning government contracts. Jeff Brumfield explains:

"SpaceX gets billions in government contracts, including money for Starship. But it's not the only player... NASA has spent nearly $100 billion trying to get astronauts back to the moon." [08:56]

Tim Ferrer from TMF Associates suggests that Elon Musk may advocate for reallocating portions of NASA's lunar program funding towards SpaceX's Starship, potentially sidelining other companies involved in the initiative:

"Musk would say, well, do we need all of those? And SpaceX has already surged ahead in the launch market in recent years with its other rockets." [09:38]

This financial maneuvering could consolidate SpaceX's dominance in the aerospace sector, enhancing its capabilities in rapid reusability and space exploration.

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5. Future Projections and Environmental Consequences

Looking ahead, SpaceX's Starship program is expected to make significant strides, with potential increases in launch frequency and advancements in reusable rocket technology. Jeff Brumfield summarizes the trajectory:

"The program will make huge strides with its goal of rapid reusability for space exploration. And it's also going to have big environmental consequences for the grasslands that surround around the launch site." [09:49]

While the technological progress promises to revolutionize space travel and exploration, the accompanying environmental costs pose serious concerns for conservationists and local ecosystems in Texas.

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Conclusion

This episode of The Indicator from Planet Money provides a comprehensive analysis of how a second Trump term could reshape SpaceX's operations, focusing on regulatory easing and financial growth. While SpaceX's advancements in aerospace technology are poised to accelerate, they come with significant environmental challenges that warrant careful consideration and proactive management.

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Notable Quotes:

• Weyland Wong [00:11]: "SpaceX is capping off a busy 2024. It's launched more than 115 rockets into orbit so far, with plans for even more next year."

• Jeff Brumfield [00:45]: "The idea here is very, very rapid reusability... Elon Musk says he wants this thing launching as often as three times a day."

• Jeff Brumfield [07:23]: "SpaceX is committed to minimizing impact and enhancing the surrounding environment where possible."

• Jeff Brumfield [08:56]: "SpaceX gets billions in government contracts... NASA has spent nearly $100 billion trying to get astronauts back to the moon."

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This detailed summary captures the essence of the podcast episode, providing listeners with a thorough understanding of SpaceX's current status, challenges, and future prospects within the political and environmental context of a potential second Trump administration.

Transcript

[Weyland Wong]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Weyland Wong. Elon Musk's aerospace company SpaceX is capping off a busy 2024. It's launched more than 115 rockets into orbit so far, with plans for even more next year. The company's latest flight test of its starship last month was attended by President Elect Donald Trump. At the launch, the rocket booster was supposed to come back to the launch pad so it could be reused quickly, but there was damage to the launch tower and it landed in the Gulf of Mexico instead. Jeff Brumfield covers SpaceX for NPR's Science Desk.

[Jeff Brumfield]

It's a really strange way to do it because, you know, other rockets just drop their boosters or in the case of the space shuttle, sometimes they would go out into the ocean and retreat, retrieve the boosters. The idea here is very, very rapid reusability. If you catch the booster, you just lower it back on the launch pad, fill it back up with gas, and then you can go and, you know, Elon Musk says he wants this thing launching as often as three times a day.

[Weyland Wong]

Jeff spoke to Regina Barber, the co host of NPR science podcast Short Wave. It was a really interesting conversation about the environmental impact of the starship program, which is currently taking place in a vulnerable Texas ecosystem. They also talked what a second Trump administration could mean for the company. That's after the break.

[Regina Barber]

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[Becca Anderson]

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[Justin LeClaire]

SIPC NPR science correspondent Jeff Brumfield. Hello.

[Jeff Brumfield]

Hello, Regina.

[Justin LeClaire]

So, okay, Musk wants to launch these things like three times a day. What does that mean for, like, where they're launching these things?

[Jeff Brumfield]

So in the long Term, Musk has said that he wants these launched from the middle of the ocean because, of course, launching a giant rocket is very disruptive. I don't know if floating platforms will ever be able to launch starships. I mean, I think that might be a little unrealistic. But in the near term, what they're planning to do is launch a lot more from this site in Texas. Now, this year they are authorized to launch five times. Next year they want to go up to as many as 25 times. And recently, Space SpaceX executive Gwen Shotwell said that she would not be surprised if the company launched Starship 400 times in the next four years.

[Justin LeClaire]

What?

[Jeff Brumfield]

And this has gotten environmentalists really worried because SpaceX's launch site in Texas is in the middle of a state and federal wildlife refuge.

[Justin LeClaire]

I mean, how is that even allowed?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Yeah, well, it's a really interesting situation. So basically, this site is near the city of Brownsville. Right next to it is this large area known kind of colloquially as Boca Chica. It's a mix of state land and federal land and little parcels of private land sort of tucked away in there. Oh. So about 10 years ago, SpaceX bought these little patches of private land. And, you know, on one site they have their production facility, and on another site just up the road, they have their launch facility.

[Regina Barber]

Wow.

[Justin LeClaire]

And you actually went there, right? Like, what did you see?

[Jeff Brumfield]

It's really a fascinating place to visit because it sits about a half hour outside of Brownsville along this two lane highway. It's sort of cutting through these native grasslands near the Gulf of Mexico that's home to hundreds of bird species, including many that stop over during migrations to Central and South America. So this is the weird thing about the setup is, you know, because there's public land right next to all of SpaceX's facilities, you could pull right up next to the launch complex and park there. And that's exactly why I did.

[Justin LeClaire]

Wow.

[Jeff Brumfield]

And, you know, it was so weird because you, like, get out of your car, you're just parked on the side of the road next to a sand dune, and there's this, ah, it's just so big. This huge rocket right there.

[Justin LeClaire]

It was just there, like just the rocket.

[Jeff Brumfield]

You could just see it just standing right there on the pad. And, you know, I met Justin LeClaire there. He's a biologist with the nonprofit Coastal Bays, Bends and Estuaries which monitors wildlife in Boca Chica. We nailed it today. Look at this. The whole rocket's here.

[Tim Ferrer]

Indeed. It's always different out here. The Biggest building back at production with all the glass and stuff in the front, that was not anywhere near that close to being done last time I was here, like a month and a half ago. So they just fly through everything.

[Jeff Brumfield]

So Justin and I started climbing back into the dunes next to the launch pad. Wow.

[Tim Ferrer]

So this is all coastal prairie. We're getting kind of into this, the dune habitat here as well.

[Jeff Brumfield]

And as soon as we get back there, we start seeing these enormous chunks of concrete.

[Tim Ferrer]

It was basically a minefield of debris out here after the April 2023, that first flight test.

[Jeff Brumfield]

So the first flight of Starship was particularly damaging to the local environment because the rocket was so powerful. It actually blew a hole in its launch pad. Wow.

[Justin LeClaire]

I mean, when you say there's just debris everywhere, I just imagine like animals walking through there, like, just, like just chunks of debris flying everywhere.

[Jeff Brumfield]

Yeah, I mean, it was a lot. And part of the reason this happened was SpaceX, in their rush to get Starship flying, did not install a standard piece of equipment known as a water deluge system.

[Becca Anderson]

Okay.

[Jeff Brumfield]

Now, this is designed to suppress the power of the rocket engines, and basically it's a giant upside down shower that sprays hundreds of thousands of gallons of water under the rocket as it launches. So they put one of these things in and that solved that problem, but it also created a new problem because the launch pad is completely flat. And so every launch, the water goes everywhere. Now, SpaceX says, Look, this is drinking water used in the system. It's not dangerous. But the fact of the matter is it does contain some harmful chemicals after it comes in contact with the rocket exhaust. And the EPA classifies this water as industrial wastewater. So just letting it spill out into wetlands violates the clean Water Act. SpaceX knew this before two other launches earlier this year, but they launched anyway, and they later got fined by the EPA and local regulators.

[Justin LeClaire]

So what, what does SpaceX say about all this? Like how they're affecting the environment?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Yeah, I mean, SpaceX didn't talk to me directly, but they did put out a lengthy statement on this issue in September. And they said, quote, the narrative that we operate free or in defiance of environmental regulation is demonstrably false. SpaceX is committed to minimizing impact and enhancing the surrounding environment where possible.

[Justin LeClaire]

Okay, Jeff, SpaceX is like racing ahead here, right? But Donald Trump has been reelected and he and Elon are buddies. So, like, what's the impact likely to be?

[Jeff Brumfield]

I think there's likely to be sort of two areas where we're going to see some changes in SpaceX's relationship to the government, the first is regulation. So Starship is regulated by the Federal Aviation Administration in consultation with other agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency. And those regulators have been perceived as slowing down Starship's launches due in part to these environmental concerns. I spoke to Lori Garver, a former deputy administrator of NASA under Barack Obama, and she thinks all that's about to change. The FAA and the EPA will not be raising flags as they have been these last couple years. Now, there may still be barriers. Environmental groups are already suing the FAA for failing to conduct an inadequate environmental Starship's impact on Boca Chica. And those suits are still going to go forward. But in terms of the regulators, that may ease up quite a bit.

[Justin LeClaire]

Okay, so less regulatory oversight. What else might change?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Well, the other thing is money. SpaceX gets billions in government contracts, including money for Starship. But it's not the only player. So, for example, NASA has spent nearly $100 billion trying to get astronauts back to the moon. A sliver of that money has gone to Starship, which is theoretically going to work as a lunar lander. Tim Ferrer is of a consulting firm called TMF Associates, which tracks SpaceX's business. He says it's quite possible Musk is going to try and push more money from other parts of the moon program into Starship. There are many different companies involved in building things, and Musk would say, well, do we need all of those?

[Regina Barber]

You know, why don't you give us.

[Jeff Brumfield]

The money and we'll do all of this with Starship instead? And, you know, SpaceX has already surged ahead in the launch market in recent years with its other rockets.

[Justin LeClaire]

Wow.

[Jeff Brumfield]

And Ferris says its power is going to grow almost inevitably. The most visible sign of all this change is going to be Starship. We'll see if they actually get up to 25 launches next year. But even if they only do a fraction of those, the program will make huge strides with its goal of rapid reusability for space exploration. And it's also going to have big environmental consequences for the grasslands that surround around the launch site.

[Weyland Wong]

This episode was originally produced and edited by Rachel Carlson and Rebecca Ramirez with engineering by Maggie Luthar. Tyler Jones did the fact checking. Additional production by Julia Richie with engineering by Jimmy Keighley. Kay Kincannon is the editor of the Indicator. Shortwave and the Indicator are productions of npr.

[Becca Anderson]

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[Jeff Brumfield]

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[Becca Anderson]

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[Regina Barber]

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