What do farmers do in a trade war?

Summary

**Summary of "What Do Farmers Do in a Trade War?"
**The Indicator from Planet Money
**Hosted by NPR
**Release Date: May 6, 2025

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Introduction to Farmers' Lives

In the episode titled "What Do Farmers Do in a Trade War?" The Indicator from Planet Money delves into the profound impacts of international trade tensions on American agriculture. The show opens by introducing Anthony Bland, a third-generation rice and soybean farmer from Tunica County, Mississippi. Anthony emphasizes the intrinsic connection his family has with farming, highlighting the love for independence and the challenges that come with cultivating the land.

Anthony Bland [00:55]: “I like the independence. Once you grow up farming, it's kind of something that stays in your blood. We have that enjoyment of living off the land and raising crops.”

Brad Smith, a soybean farmer from Milledgeville, Illinois, is also featured. He underscores the dual nature of farming—balancing the unpredictability of nature with the complexities of market dynamics.

Brad Smith [04:10]: “It's kind of cold and windy and crappy here.”

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Impact of the Trade War with China

The core of the episode examines how the ongoing trade war between the United States and China has severely affected farmers like Anthony and Brad. Initiated by the Trump administration, the trade war introduced significant tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, with soybeans being a primary target.

Darian Woods [01:42]: "The Trump administration has said that the trade war would cause some shock, short term economic pain. Well, a lot of farmers like Anthony are feeling it."

China's Retaliatory Tariffs

China's retaliation manifested in hefty tariffs on U.S. soybeans, escalating to at least 125%, which drastically reduced American soybean exports to China by nearly 30% compared to the previous year.

Darian Woods [05:05]: "Because of that sudden price hike, sales of U.S. soybeans to China have plummeted. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, soybean sales to China are almost 30% lower than they were a year ago."

Farmers' Financial Struggles

The reduction in Chinese demand has plunged farmers into financial distress. With diminished sales, farmers face increased costs for inputs like potash fertilizer from Canada and parts from China, which are also subject to tariffs.

Anthony Bland [10:23]: "So our input costs are going up, whereas our commodity prices or the price we get paid for our product are going down. So that's a lose, lose situation in any business."

Farmers rely heavily on operating lines of credit to manage expenses such as fertilizer, seeds, machinery, and land payments. The unpredictability introduced by the trade war has made financial negotiations with bankers more tense and uncertain.

Brad Smith [06:32]: "Most every farmer has an operating line of credit... When you have several hundred thousand dollars borrowed, you know, the banker likes to know he has a good chance of getting paid back."

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Promises vs. Reality: Farmers' Perspectives

President Trump has maintained that the trade war's short-term pain will lead to long-term gains, including the resurgence of manufacturing and job creation in the U.S. However, farmers express skepticism regarding these promises.

Brad Smith [07:17]: "Yeah, that's probably a pretty accurate way to put it. And so, like I said, I think most farmers are willing to do that for the short term, as long as you don't go broke in the process."

Anthony Bland [08:16]: "Start of the show, farmers have been bailed out. But you know, we can't keep getting bailed out, especially once you lose a market like that. You can lose a market in one month and it may take you five to 10 years to recover that same market share."

Historical Context and Repeated Challenges

This is not the first time U.S. farmers have been adversely affected by trade wars with China. During the initial phase of the Trump administration, the Agriculture Department issued a bailout of approximately $23 billion to compensate for lost revenue. Despite these efforts, the long-term recovery remains uncertain as China has shifted its soybean imports to other countries like Brazil.

Anthony Bland [08:40]: "So it's going to shift that market and the American soybean farmer is going to be the loser in all of this."

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Market Dynamics and Uncertainty

The episode highlights the struggle to find alternative markets for U.S. soybeans. Brad Smith points out the difficulty in replacing the Chinese market due to the sheer volume of soybeans produced in the U.S. compared to domestic demand.

Brad Smith [06:18]: "Everybody's trying to figure out other places to go with their beans... and so we're just in an oversupply and under demand sort of market dynamic in soybeans right now."

Farmers are also contending with inflationary pressures as the cost of essential inputs rises amidst declining commodity prices, exacerbating their financial strain.

Brad Smith [07:45]: "We have to have faith that, you know, things will work out in the end. And most times they do. But it still kind of stinks right now today."

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Looking Ahead: Uncertain Prospects

As of the episode's release, a resolution to the trade war remains elusive. Chinese officials have hinted at the possibility of resuming trade talks contingent on U.S. sincerity and tariff cancellations. However, President Trump has signaled a willingness to lower, but not eliminate, the tariffs.

Host [10:07]: "As of today, a truce in this trade war seems pretty far away."

The uncertainty continues to loom over the agricultural sector, with no clear path to recovery in sight. Farmers like Anthony and Brad remain hopeful but cautious, navigating a volatile market landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions.

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Conclusion

"What Do Farmers Do in a Trade War?" offers a poignant exploration of how international politics and economic policies directly impact individual farmers and the broader agricultural industry. Through the voices of Anthony Bland and Brad Smith, the episode underscores the resilience required to weather such economic storms and the pressing need for sustainable solutions to support America's farming communities.

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Produced by Angel Carreras and engineered by Robert Rodriguez. Music and production by Cake and Cannon. Fact-checked by Sierra Juarez.

Transcript

[Host]

A quick note before we start today's show. You might have heard that President Trump has issued an executive order seeking to block all federal funding to npr. This is the latest in a series of threats to media organizations across the country. And whatever changes this action brings, NPR's commitment to reporting the news will never change. Even as paywalls go up elsewhere, we offer this vital resource to everyone. Support the news and programming you and millions rely on by visiting donate.npr.org and and if you already support us via NPR or other means, thank you. Your support means so much to us, now more than ever.

[NPR]

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[Host]

For pretty much his whole life, Anthony Bland has worked the land.

[Anthony Bland]

I am a third generation farmer in Tunica County, Mississippi. I'm a rice and soybean farmer and I have two sons who one helps me on the farm and another one works with the usda.

[Host]

The whole family is in the agriculture business. What is it about farming that you like?

[Anthony Bland]

Basically, I like the independence. Once you grow up farming, it's kind of something that stays in your blood. You know, we have that enjoyment of living off the land and raising crops. And you know, the challenges can be a little overwhelming sometimes. But, you know, we're kind of, we're kind of used to it.

[Darian Woods]

A lot of those challenges have to do with nature. You know, a drought, a hurricane, a crop disease.

[Host]

Other challenges, though, are more man made, like a trade war with China. This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Adrian Ma.

[Darian Woods]

And I'm Darian Woods. The Trump administration has said that the trade war would cause some shock, short term economic pain. Well, a lot of farmers like Anthony are feeling it.

[Anthony Bland]

I think it's crazy. I mean, short term pain for a farmer means going out of business permanently.

[Host]

Today on the show, Anthony and another soybean farmer tell us how they're feeling about a trade war that targets their biggest customer.

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[Host]

The thing about growing crops for a living is so much depends on the weather. Brad Smith knows this firsthand.

[Brad Smith]

Hey, how are we doing?

[Host]

I know you said that like, schedule is weather dependent. So have you already kind of like been outside today and.

[Brad Smith]

Oh yeah, it's kind of cold and windy and crappy here.

[Host]

But Brad lives in Milledgeville, Illinois, and when the weather is not cold and crappy, he's out in the field growing corn and soybeans.

[Darian Woods]

The first time we spoke to him was back in January. So to understand how the trade war that Trump started was affecting farmers, we called him back and just asked, how's it been?

[Brad Smith]

We had a good, a real good January and February, price wise. And so we were all feeling pretty good and confident of ourselves. And so we kind of fooled ourselves into thinking that it was no big deal, that everything would work itself out.

[Host]

Then trade tensions escalated. China retaliated with tariffs on US agricultural products, including soybeans. And then as the US and China went back and forth raising tariffs again and again, China's tariffs on U.S. imports have gotten to at least 125%.

[Darian Woods]

Because of that sudden price hike, sales of U.S. soybeans to China have plummeted. According to data from the U.S. department of Agricult, soybean sales to China are almost 30% lower than they were a year ago.

[Brad Smith]

Now, again, that can come back quick, too, with a stroke of a pen. But, you know, that's kind of, you know, kind of punches you in the gut a little bit when you weren't expecting it.

[Host]

And from China's perspective, this is the strategy to hit the US where it hurts. After all, the US's most valuable export to China in terms of goods is not blue jeans or bourbon. Any guesses?

[Darian Woods]

Hamburgers? I don't know. Probably that'd go bad on the show.

[Host]

No, in fact, it is the humble soybean.

[Darian Woods]

Okay.

[Host]

Last year, over 50% of US soybean exports were bound for China, where they were used for animal feed and cooking oil and to make things like tofu. But this year, because of the trade war, things are not looking good.

[Brad Smith]

Everybody's trying to figure out other places to go with their beans other than China. And right now, there's no great answers to that. And so we're just in a. And oversupply and under demand sort of market dynamic in soybeans right now.

[Darian Woods]

Yeah. And unless the US Population suddenly quadruples in size and Americans start eating a lot more tofu. A lot more tofu, Chinese customers will be hard to replace. And Brad says this puts farmers in a financial bind.

[Brad Smith]

Most every farmer has an operating line of credit, you know, the money they need to pay their bills, you know, to buy your fertilizer, buy your seed, you know, make your machinery payments and land pay and things like that. When you have several hundred thousand dollars borrowed, you know, the banker likes to know he has a good chance of getting paid back.

[Darian Woods]

And with the trade war dragging on, Brad says those banker conversations have gotten a little bit uncomfortable lately.

[Host]

You know, one of the things that Trump has said about his tariffs is that there will be short term pain, but long term gain, and that jobs and manufacturing will come back to the United States as a result. But for now, I mean, does it feel like that farmers are sort of being asked to take one for the team?

[Brad Smith]

Yeah, that's probably a pretty accurate way to put it. And so, like I said, I think most farmers are willing to do that for the short term, as long as you don't go broke in the process. You know, if you're sick, sometimes you have to take medicine that doesn't taste very good right now, but you'll get better in the long term. So we'll see. I mean, we have to have faith that, you know, things will work out in the end. And most times they do. But it still kind of stinks right now today.

[Darian Woods]

This isn't the first time US Farmers have been hurt by a trade war between the US And China. Last time was during the first Trump administration. Back then, the Agriculture Department cut checks to farmers to make up for their lost revenue. It was a bailout that cost about $23 billion. And recently Trump's Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rowlands, said a bailout could be on the table again, although that's not really comforting for farmers like Brad or Anthony Bland, the Mississippi farmer we met at the.

[Anthony Bland]

Start of the show, farmers have been bailed out. But you know, we can't keep getting bailed out, especially once you lose a market like that. You can lose a market in one month and it may take you five to 10 years to recover that same market share.

[Host]

And in fact, US Soybean growers still haven't recovered the business they lost during that last trade war when China started buying more of its soybeans from Brazil.

[Anthony Bland]

So it's going to shift that market and the American soybean farmer is going to be the loser in all of this.

[Darian Woods]

One of Trump's stated goals is to bring manufacturing back to the US So Americans can buy more American made stuff. But Anthony says compared to countries in Asia, there just isn't much demand here for rice and soybeans. That's why he relies on the global marketplace.

[Anthony Bland]

Americans cannot keep up with all the crops that we raise. There's no way they could consume it all. And, you know, bringing manufacturing jobs back is kind of a fallacy in any industry, including the farm industry, because today, me and my son, the two of us can do the work that previously it took 10 to 15 people to do on the farm. So we have a larger tractors, larger equipment, and of course, you know, there's automation. And that's going to be the same way with any manufacturing jobs. So those jobs that they're talking about will never come back, not to the extent that they're telling people that they're going to come back at.

[Host]

So you can hear that. While Brad was a little hopeful that the medicine will work, Anthony is a lot more skeptical about the Trump administration's promises. But for both of them, the biggest challenge right now seems to be how the trade war is creating all this uncertainty for their businesses, not only from the loss of revenue, but also increased costs.

[Darian Woods]

For example, most potash fertiliser comes from Canada. And because of tariffs, farmers are looking at higher prices on that. Anthony says a lot of the parts and equipment he uses come from China, and of course there are tariffs on those too.

[Anthony Bland]

So our input costs are going up, whereas our commodity prices or the price we get paid for our product are going down. So that's a lose, lose situation in any business.

[Host]

As of today, a truce in this trade war seems pretty far away. On Friday, Chinese officials said they would consider beginning trade talks with the US if it showed, quote, sincerity and it cancels tariffs on its goods. When Trump was asked about this statement on an NBC interview, he said he wouldn't cancel the tariffs, but he would lower them. Quote at some point tomorrow we'll be.

[Darian Woods]

Looking at one industry that's embracing the tariffs. US Shrimpers are applauding Trump's strategy. Do economists agree?

[Host]

This episode was produced by Angel Carreras and engineered by Robert Rodriguez. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Cake and Cannon edits the show and the indicators of production of NPR.

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