What the cluck is happening with egg prices?

Summary

Episode Summary: "What the Cluck Is Happening with Egg Prices?"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Indicator from Planet Money
• Host/Author: NPR
• Release Date: February 18, 2025

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Introduction: The Egg Price Conundrum

In the February 18, 2025 episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Darienne Woods and Waylon Wong delve into the sudden surge in egg prices, which have nearly doubled compared to the previous year. This spike has led to empty shelves in supermarkets, sparking concern among consumers nationwide. The episode aims to unravel the economic factors behind this trend and explore potential solutions to stabilize egg prices.

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Investigating Cedar Gate Farm

Darienne Woods sets the stage by recounting her visit to Cedar Gate Farm in New Jersey to meet Farmer Brittany Clenden, hoping to shed light on the dramatic rise in egg prices. Darienne introduces listener Carolyn Burns’ query:

“What's making egg prices so high and when will they come back down?”
[00:39] Darienne Woods

At the farm, she observes the bustling activity and the high demand for Brittany's eggs. Brittany shares her firsthand experience:

“This weekend we had a line of cars in the front of our store. That's never happened before. And we sold out within three minutes.”
[03:20] Brittany Clenden

Despite the soaring demand, Brittany maintains a price of $8 per dozen, which is notably cheaper than the wholesale price for eggs from large-scale producers who often use battery hens. This pricing strategy highlights the strain on smaller farms amid the crisis.

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Causes Behind the Egg Price Surge

The primary driver behind the egg price increase is the bird flu outbreak, a topic extensively analyzed in the episode with insights from Amy Smith, an analyst at Advanced Economic Solutions.

“The big factor is bird flu. The egg-laying hens either died from the disease or were culled because they were part of an infected flock.”
[03:58] Darienne Woods

Key Points:

• Massive Losses: In January alone, nearly 20 million egg-laying hens were lost, compounding with previous losses from late last year. This represents a significant reduction in the total flock, dropping from approximately one laying hen per American to 0.8 per American.

“Everyone needs a hen.”
[04:46] Brittnik

• Global Impact: The bird flu is not confined to the U.S.; it affects other animals such as dairy cows and cats, exacerbating the supply issues.

• Continued Deterioration: Since the outbreak began in 2022, the situation has worsened annually, with fluctuating yet consistently high loss rates of the flock.

“In 2022, we lost somewhere in the neighborhood of 13% of our total flock. In 2023, we lost somewhere around 4.55% of our total flock. In 2024, it was 12 to 13%.”
[05:25] Brittnik

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Economic Implications and Market Responses

The reduction in egg supply coincides with periods of increased demand, particularly between Thanksgiving and Easter, leading to further price hikes. Additionally, consumer behavior such as stockpiling contributes to the scarcity:

“A bit of hoarding behavior going on.”
[06:28] Darienne Woods

Waylon recounts personal experiences of encountering empty egg shelves and witnessing purchase limits imposed by stores, illustrating the panic-driven demand:

“This literally happened to me… I actually have an almost full carton in my fridge at home. So then I was like, waylon, no, because then you are going to be contributing to this problem.”
[06:46] Waylon Wong

Meanwhile, the stock price of Kalmains Food, the nation's largest egg producer, has nearly doubled over the past year, reflecting investor confidence in large-scale egg production amidst the crisis.

“The stock price of the nation's largest egg producer, Kalmains Food, has nearly doubled over the last year.”
[07:20] Darienne Woods

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Policy Responses and Potential Solutions

Addressing the root cause, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has implemented new inspection rules aimed at mitigating the bird flu outbreak. The latest regulations focus on biosecurity audits for farms recovering from infections, intending to prevent future outbreaks by enforcing better practices:

“The Department of Agriculture issued a new rule requiring more biosecurity audits for farms that have previously had bird flu and are restocking.”
[08:06] Darienne Woods

Additionally, the idea of vaccinating chickens is discussed as a potential solution to control the virus. However, Brittany Clenden points out the challenges:

“Even the birds that are vaccinated can still carry and shed that virus. So, you know, I think it just makes it more challenging to detect and then contain.”
[08:42] Brittany Clenden

These measures, while promising, underscore the complexity of completely eradicating the bird flu and stabilizing egg production.

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Looking Ahead: When Will Prices Stabilize?

The episode concludes on an uncertain note regarding the timeline for egg prices to return to normal levels. The stabilization largely hinges on successfully controlling the bird flu outbreak and restoring the egg-laying population. Darienne Woods conveys a poignant sentiment for listener Carolyn Burns and others affected:

“So no good news for our listener Carolyn sadly, or her egg loving baby.”
[08:53] Darienne Woods

Despite the challenges, small farmers like Brittany Clenden remain committed to providing quality eggs without exploiting the situation:

“I'm not out to price gouge anybody and take advantage of a situation that has nothing to do with me.”
[09:15] Brittany Clenden

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Closing Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Darienne Woods shares her personal efforts to navigate the high egg prices responsibly, emphasizing adherence to CDC guidelines amid the ongoing bird flu risks:

“Eggs by the way… I made a beautiful omelette well cooked. To the CDC guidelines given the bird flu outbreak.”
[09:25] Darienne Woods

The discussion leaves listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted economic, agricultural, and behavioral factors contributing to the current egg price surge, while also highlighting the resilience and adaptability required to overcome such disruptions.

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Notable Quotes:

• Darienne Woods [00:39]: “What's making egg prices so high and when will they come back down?”
• Brittany Clenden [03:20]: “This weekend we had a line of cars in the front of our store. That's never happened before. And we sold out within three minutes.”
• Brittnik [04:46]: “Everyone needs a hen.”
• Waylon Wong [06:46]: “…because you are going to be contributing to this problem.”
• Brittany Clenden [08:42]: “Even the birds that are vaccinated can still carry and shed that virus.”
• Darienne Woods [09:15]: “I'm not out to price gouge anybody and take advantage of a situation that has nothing to do with me.”

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This detailed exploration by The Indicator from Planet Money effectively breaks down the complex dynamics influencing egg prices, providing listeners with insightful analysis and real-world examples to comprehend the current economic phenomenon.

Transcript

[Brittnik]

Npr.

[Darienne Woods]

Last week, Waylon, I drove to a farm in New Jersey to investigate an economic problem. At our kitchen table, it was frosty snowshoe leather journalism.

[Waylon Wong]

Is that you crunching on the snow?

[Darienne Woods]

Indeed, yes. Hi, Brittnik.

[Brittnik]

Yes, hi.

[Darienne Woods]

I was at Cedar Gate Farm to meet farmer Brittany Clenden. I hoped Brittany could help me answer a question from an indicator listener, Carolyn Burns.

[Amy Smith]

What's making egg prices so high and when will they come back down?

[Darienne Woods]

Carolyn said her baby daughter eats a.

[Waylon Wong]

Lot of eggs like Paul Newman.

[Darienne Woods]

A baby might be the Paul Newman of egg eaters. And yeah, this is a question that a lot of people have been asking over the last month. It's all over the news. Egg prices are nearly double from a year ago. Some supermarke are empty. So yes, this is not a joke.

[Waylon Wong]

Not a joke. I can confirm. I was at Target recently. They had zero eggs on the shelf.

[Darienne Woods]

So I needed to crack the case.

[Waylon Wong]

You went on an egg cellent adventure, did you?

[Darienne Woods]

I did. This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Darienne Woods.

[Waylon Wong]

And I'm Waylon Wong. Today on the show, egg prices and.

[Darienne Woods]

When will they come down?

[Waylon Wong]

Can we afford to eat an omelet ever again?

[Darienne Woods]

I grill the chickens after the break.

[Waylon Wong]

Poor chickens with a microphone.

[Amy Smith]

This message comes from Charles Schwab. When it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices like full service, wealth management and advice when you need it. You can also invest on your own and trade on Think or swim. Visit schwab.com to learn more.

[Corey Bridges]

This message comes from Capital One with the Venture X card. Earn unlimited double miles on everything you buy, plus get premium benefits at a collection of hotels when booking through Capital One Travel. What's in your wallet? Terms apply [e-mail] this message comes from Charles Schwab.

[Amy Smith]

When it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices like full service, wealth management and advice when you need it. You can also invest on your own and trade on thinkorswim. Visit schwab.com to learn more.

[Corey Bridges]

This message comes from Capital One. Say hello to stress free subscription management. Easily track block or or cancel recurring charges right from the Capital One mobile app. Simple as that. Learn [e-mail] subscriptions terms and conditions apply.

[Brittany Clenden]

So you can come on in.

[Darienne Woods]

Very beautiful little flock of heads. White, black, ochre, speckled, spotted.

[Waylon Wong]

Are those the chickens in the background I'm hearing?

[Darienne Woods]

Yes. We snatched the eggs from under the hens.

[Brittany Clenden]

You can even feel they're really warm after they lay them.

[Waylon Wong]

Is that the chicken squawking in protest, as you say.

[Darienne Woods]

What are you doing?

[Waylon Wong]

You're like manhandling this hen.

[Darienne Woods]

Yeah. So Cedar Gate Farm is relatively small scale, but Brittany says demand for her eggs is huge at the moment.

[Brittany Clenden]

This weekend we had a line of cars in the front of our store. That's never happened before. And we sold out within three minutes.

[Darienne Woods]

Golden eggs.

[Brittany Clenden]

Yes.

[Darienne Woods]

Brittany sells a dozen of her eggs for $8. And that makes sense, you know, they're straight from a small farm with chickens roaming around outside for part of the year. They're indoors right now, but with plenty of space. Usually these eggs would be at a premium. Now they're actually cheaper than the wholesale price for Midwest eggs. And that includes eggs from battery hens, you know, eggs from cages.

[Waylon Wong]

Honestly, that is wild that the bespoke eggs are cheaper than the ones that come out of like, basically factory farms.

[Darienne Woods]

Yeah. I spoke to Amy Smith. She's an analyst at Advanced Economic Solutions, a consulting company. Amy says, as you've probably heard, the big factor is bird flu.

[Brittnik]

It's been pretty rampant through egg layers for sure.

[Darienne Woods]

The egg laying hens either died from the disease or were culled because they were part of an infected flock.

[Brittnik]

We lost nearly 20 million in January.

[Darienne Woods]

And that was on top of tens of millions killed late last year. It is the biggest animal health emergency ever in the US and to put that January loss of around 20 million birds into perspective, before the current outbreak, there was roughly one egg laying chicken per American.

[Brittnik]

And so What? We have 330, 340 million Americans. So you need somewhere around that number of egg laying hens.

[Darienne Woods]

Everyone needs a hen.

[Brittnik]

Everybody needs a hen. And so, you know, when that's happening, it's taking those animals out of the egg laying flock.

[Darienne Woods]

And so now there's about 0.8 of a laying hen per American instead of one laying hen per American before the outbreak.

[Waylon Wong]

This is so interesting. It's like the per capita hen metric I didn't know I needed.

[Darienne Woods]

Yeah. And it is worth noting that bird flu is a global issue. You know, it's also infecting other an like dairy cows and cats.

[Waylon Wong]

But there's still this question of why now. Right. Because I know that this bird flu outbreak has been going on for years now.

[Darienne Woods]

Yeah, the broad outbreak in the US began in 2022. And Amy says really the problem is that it just keeps getting worse.

[Brittnik]

You know, 2022, we lost somewhere in the neighborhood of 13% of our total flock. In 2023, we lost somewhere around 4.55% of our total flock. In 2024, it was 12 to 13%. And so you're continuing to lower your flock numbers, increasing your losses, and that percentage number continues to grow.

[Darienne Woods]

I should say that there are also a few extra other rising costs, certain feeds, energy, wages. Depends on where you are in the country, of course. But none of those give you quite the dramatic jump in egg prices we've seen. Amy says egg demand between Thanksgiving and Easter is also a factor.

[Waylon Wong]

Not to mention maybe a little bit of egg stockpiling from people who go to the grocery store and get really nervous.

[Darienne Woods]

Yes, we talked about that.

[Brittnik]

Somebody at the grocery store saying, oh, they've got eggs in stock. I don't really need eggs, but let me buy another carton.

[Darienne Woods]

A bit of hoarding behavior going on.

[Brittnik]

Maybe a little bit. I hate to say the word panic, but I think it's somebody saying, let me get another thing of eggs.

[Waylon Wong]

This literally happened to me. Cause after, no, after I went to Target, they didn't have any. I went to the next grocery store and they did have lots of egg. Limit two per person. And I thought to myself, I should just buy two. And then I was like, not two.

[Darienne Woods]

Eggs by the way.

[Waylon Wong]

No, no, two cartons. But then I was like, I actually have an almost full carton in my fridge at home. So then I was like, waylon, no, because then you are going to be contributing to this problem that I know happens because I'm an economics reporter. So Darian, I would like a trophy for my self control because I didn't buy any eggs on that shopping trip.

[Darienne Woods]

Well, maybe I could give you an egg.

[Waylon Wong]

Is it so warm? Yeah. So I mean, egg stockpiling behav for egg farmers who don't have bird flu on their farms. Right. Strong demand, higher prices for their eggs.

[Darienne Woods]

Yeah. It is true. The stock price of the nation's largest egg producer, Kalmains Food, has nearly doubled over the last year.

[Waylon Wong]

So to answer a listener's question, is there an end in sight? Like when might egg prices come back down?

[Darienne Woods]

Yeah. So the USDA recently changed its inspection rules, which might help. It was worried that its compensation scheme for farmers who lose chickens to bird flu had unintended cons. If you're going to get money for lost chickens, you might not put as much effort into stopping the disease from reaching the farm in the first place. This is known in economics as moral hazard. So at the end of last year, the Department of Agriculture issued a new rule requiring more biosecurity audits for farms that have previously had bird flu and are restocking.

[Waylon Wong]

Okay. So they're just trying to get these farms to have better practices to prevent bird flu in the first place.

[Darienne Woods]

Cleaning, separating animals, all that kind of good stuff. Vaccinating the chickens is another potential solution to this overall problem.

[Brittnik]

Vaccines are being tested. They've been used in some countries. And based on some of that research, it seems that there may not even be quite a perfect solution. Even the birds that are vaccinated can still carry and shed that virus. So, you know, I think it just makes it more challenging to detect and then contain.

[Darienne Woods]

Oh, that's interesting.

[Brittnik]

So again, you know, not necessarily a hurdle that can't be overcome, but something that definitely needs to be, you know, looked at.

[Darienne Woods]

And so the price of eggs really depends on how the bird flu outbreak goes, which is anyone's guess. So no good news for our listener Carolyn sadly, or her egg loving baby.

[Waylon Wong]

Maybe she could visit a small farm like you did, because I bet you got some eggs.

[Darienne Woods]

I did. And you know, Brittany's keeping her egg prices the same, $8 a dozen, even with the high demand.

[Brittany Clenden]

I'm not out to price gouge anybody and take advantage of a situation that has nothing to do with me.

[Darienne Woods]

So I took my $8 eggs and washed them in soap and water, which is a long standing rule for American producers. And then with those eggs from the farm freshly laid that day, ooh, it's like whisking asmr.

[Waylon Wong]

I like it.

[Darienne Woods]

I made a beautiful omelette well cooked. To the CDC guidelines given the bird flu outbreak.

[Waylon Wong]

Right. Because right now bird flu from consuming eggs is considered a very low risk. But cooking eggs well is recommended. Maybe a souffle is next. Darian, how many more eggs do you have left?

[Darienne Woods]

I've got plenty. I don't want to brag.

[Waylon Wong]

Oh, don't brag.

[Darienne Woods]

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Robert Rodriguez. It was fact checked by Cierra Juarez Cake and Cannon edits the show and the indicator is a production of npr.

[Corey Bridges]

This message comes from Capella University. With Capella's Flex Path learning format, you can set your own deadlines and learn on your schedule. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn [e-mail].

[Amy Smith]

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