Podcast Summary:

The Indicator from Planet Money – "When Will the Iran War Hit Food Prices?"
Date: May 6, 2026
Hosts: Adrian Ma & Darren Woods
Guest: David Ortega, Food Economist, Michigan State University
Duration: ~9 minutes of content

Episode Overview

This episode explores the ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war—particularly its indirect impact on U.S. grocery prices. The hosts unpack why, despite soaring gas prices, groceries haven’t risen in tandem, and when (and by how much) consumers might start feeling the pain at the supermarket. Food economist David Ortega joins to unravel the connections between conflict, diesel and fertilizer markets, and the food system, and to forecast which food items are most vulnerable.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Current State: Gas vs. Grocery Prices

• [00:29] Gas prices have “soared in the past couple of months,” while grocery prices have remained “relatively flat,” with a slight decrease in March.
• Insight: “In fact, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report, the cost of groceries actually went down a little in March.” – Adrian Ma, [00:33]

2. Warning Signs: War's Effect May Be Coming

• [00:50] The hosts warn that effects on gas prices may hit groceries next, and it's unclear whether the impact will be large or small.

3. Expert Perspective: Fuel & Fertilizer as Core Risks

• Introduction of Guest:

  • [02:29] David Ortega, food economist at Michigan State, specializes in tracking the journey of food “from farm to table” and all factors influencing that journey.
  • Memorable: “A trip to the grocery store for me is never quick. I’m always talking to people... call the produce manager, ask him what’s happening, where costs are building up.” – David Ortega, [02:52]

• Major Economic Vectors:

  • Diesel Prices:
    • “Food literally moves on diesel.” – David Ortega, [03:41]
    • Diesel operates farm equipment and trucks transporting food. Since the war began, diesel prices rose ~50% in the U.S.
  • Fertilizer Disruption:
    • Many Gulf states produce nitrogen fertilizer and LNG, both essential for crop production.
    • “When fertilizer prices go up… that can lead to lower fertilizer application rates, which could turn potentially into lower yields come harvest time, and then that would mean less food being produced, which would put upward pressure on prices.” – David Ortega, [04:21]

4. Timing & Scale of Price Increases

• When Will It Hit?
  • Input cost increases typically appear in store prices after a 6+ month lag (first signs could appear late 2026 or in 2027).
    • “There’s usually a lag of at least six months for increased input costs to actually show up on store shelves.” – Adrian Ma, [04:37]
• How Much Could Prices Rise?
  • “About 10 cents of every dollar you spend at the grocery store can be tied to energy, transportation, and fertilizer.” – David Ortega, [05:01]
  • Estimated increase: 2 to 5 percentage points—contingent on war’s duration.

5. Severity & Lasting Effects

• Compounding Factors:
  • Even a few percentage points matter as these increases stack on existing pressures: bad weather, labor, tariffs.
  • “Once they increase, [food prices] very rarely come down. And when they do, it’s very short lived.” – David Ortega, [05:34]
• Equity Warning:
  • Grocery prices are already up 30% since 2020.
  • For low-income households: “A few dollars could mean the difference between like putting the chicken in the cart or taking it out.” – Adrian Ma, [06:10]
  • “Families and households are really having to make adjustments in order to be able to keep food on the table.” – David Ortega, [06:03]

6. Which Foods Will Get Expensive First?

• Perishables in the Hot Seat:
  • “[The rise will hit] around the perimeter of the store... produce aisle, fresh fruits and vegetables, items that have to be transported fairly quickly. These are perishable items and they often have to travel long distances to get to the grocery store.” – David Ortega, [06:31]
  • Dairy (needs refrigerated transport)
  • Meat & Seafood (some seafood is air freighted, and “the price of jet fuel has really skyrocketed.” – David Ortega, [07:08])
  • “If higher prices are coming, we’ll see them there first.” – Adrian Ma, [07:19]

7. Global Perspective

• Developing Countries at Greater Risk:
  • Many African and Asian countries depend heavily on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The U.N. warns of a potential global food crisis if flows remain disrupted.
  • Key insight: Global food insecurity is more about access and affordability than production.
  • “It’s because of issues of access and affordability... food not being where it needs to be and at prices that individuals can afford.” – David Ortega, [07:58]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• David Ortega [02:52]:
  “A trip to the grocery store for me is never quick. I’m always talking to people...”
• [03:41]:
  “Food literally moves on diesel here in this country, all the way from the farm…”
• [04:21]:
  “When fertilizer prices go up… that can lead to lower fertilizer application rates, which could turn potentially into lower yields… and then that would mean less food being produced, which would put upward pressure on prices.”
• [05:34]:
  “The reason why shocks like this are so concerning is because of the nature of prices and in particular, food prices. Once they increase, they very rarely come down.”
• [06:10]:
  “A few dollars could mean the difference between like putting the chicken in the cart or taking it out.”
• [06:31]:
  “I think where we’re going to see this show up first is sort of around the perimeter of the store… produce aisle, fresh fruits and vegetables...”
• [07:58]:
  “Issues of food insecurity in the US and I think globally don’t arise because we don’t produce enough food… it’s because of issues of access and affordability...”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:29] – Current snapshot of gas vs grocery prices
• [02:29] – Introduction of economist David Ortega
• [03:41] – How diesel and fertilizer impact food prices
• [04:37] – Timeline for food price increases (6+ month lag)
• [05:01] – Possible grocery price increase estimate (2–5%)
• [05:34] – Why food price increases are ‘sticky’
• [06:10] – Impact on lower-income households
• [06:31] – Which food items will get more expensive first
• [07:31] – Potential for a global food crisis; access vs. production

Tone and Final Thoughts

The conversation is brisk, practical, and laced with relatable moments—a hallmark of Planet Money’s down-to-earth, insightful style. Rather than alarmism, the hosts and expert demystify complex supply chain connections, offering listeners a grounded, actionable sense of what may come in the evolving landscape of food economics.

For listeners and non-listeners alike:
This episode delivers clear, actionable wisdom for consumers keeping an eye on supermarket prices, and it underscores the interconnectedness of geopolitics, fuel, fertilizer, and the everyday act of putting food on the table.