Waylon Wong (1:50)

And I'm Waylon Wong. Today on the show the Jobs Crystal Ball, we answer your questions about what the future of work looks like and how accurate the government's guesses actually are.

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Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (3:29)

The other day we heard from a

Asa Hess Matsumoto (3:30)

listener, my name is Asa Hess Matsumoto and I work as an application security engineer.

Waylon Wong (3:36)

That means ASA keeps our apps safe from hackers and viruses. And he also moonlights as a teaching assistant at Georgia. He's used to fielding questions about job prospects Fair.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (3:46)

In this new AI vibe, coding world,

Asa Hess Matsumoto (3:49)

you have career changers, students, new graduates, and you know, I try as best as I'm able to to provide like, sort of empirically backed guidance.

Waylon Wong (4:02)

Asa says he finds one section of the BLS website quite useful for those hard numbers. It's the BLS's Occupational Outlook Handbook. There he can look up jobs like the one he does, Information security analyst.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (4:16)

He sees things like its median wage, $125,000.

Waylon Wong (4:20)

And he can see where these jobs are most plentiful.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (4:22)

Virginia and California.

Waylon Wong (4:24)

He can also see the projected job growth to the year 2034, 29% growth. That's a lot of analysts. Yes, his job is safe.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (4:34)

Well, this lodged a question in Ace's mind.

Asa Hess Matsumoto (4:37)

How is that done? How is that estimate made? And has there been any follow up to determine how accurate these estimations and projections have aligned with the real world data once time catches up?

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (4:49)

So at the top of the BLS's list for future job growth is nurse practitioner, solar photovoltaic installer, and wind turbine service technician.

Waylon Wong (4:59)

Ooh, you did that once for a day, for an episode. Remember you put on your steel toed boots, you climbed up a windmill.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (5:06)

It was the height of the Statue of Liberty.

Waylon Wong (5:08)

Oh my gosh.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (5:09)

And where I didn't go was the bottom of the BLS list, which is roles like teller or desktop publisher, bill and account collectors. Those jobs are projected to decrease.

Waylon Wong (5:19)

Sarah Mattson is an economist at the bls. Sarah does the work looking at trends in the labor market. But, you know, she's not like a psychic.

Sarah Mattson (5:27)

If I could make every exact prediction in a crystal ball, I would not be working here. I would have won the lottery by now.

Waylon Wong (5:33)

Sarah says the way the Bureau calculates job growth starts at looking at overall Trends in the U.S. factors such as

Sarah Mattson (5:40)

the general aging of the population and general population change and stuff like that.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (5:45)

Then Sarah's colleagues extrapolate the historical trends for jobs within the different industries, like maybe Home health and personal care aides are growing at a faster rate than, say, physicians and surgeons.

Sarah Mattson (5:56)

But there's no amount of historical data that can project trends that don't yet exist in the historical data. AI, of course, is a great example of that. So that's where my team comes in and we apply our research to those initial estimates to kind of move them as we see appropriate for the emerging trends.

Waylon Wong (6:17)

So for our listener, asa's job, information security analyst, that's expected to grow. The BLS writes cyber attacks have grown in frequency and these analysts will be needed.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (6:28)

Bad for the world, but good for ASA's cybersecurity students.

Waylon Wong (6:32)

Yeah, the BLS is bullish on both scams and cybersecurity students.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (6:36)

Yes.

Waylon Wong (6:37)

But that gets us to ace's second question. How reliable have the BLS projections been? Economist Maxime Masinkoff has written a paper answering this very question. Maxim recently moved from academia to AI. He now works for Anthropic.

Darren Woods (6:52)

With all the developments in AI, I got really curious about will this job still be around? And how good would advice be based on these kinds of job forecasts?

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (7:03)

Maxime's research began by looking just after World War II. That's when millions of young veterans had returned home from Europe in the Pacific. The US Government wanted to help them decide what careers to pursue. So it made the first Occupational outlook report in 1946.

Darren Woods (7:20)

It had a really wide circulation. The circulation in the US approached that of like a New York Times bestseller.

Waylon Wong (7:26)

And that popularity remains. It's the most visited section of the BLS website today.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (7:32)

The report has been updated every few years since, and it highlights trends that might affect jobs, like when the US highway system was being built out from the 1950s.

Darren Woods (7:42)

These huge construction projects would unearth a lot of artifacts. And so the BLS predicted that demand for archaeologists would go up in the 50s and 60s.

Waylon Wong (7:56)

The handbook predicted more veterinarians as more people moved to the suburbs.

Darren Woods (8:01)

They'd have a lot more space and they'd be more likely to have a pet dog.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (8:05)

Even trends for men having longer hair

Darren Woods (8:07)

in the 1970s, the prediction for decreased demand for barbers. People didn't need to get their hair cut as often.

Waylon Wong (8:13)

Some assessments haven't aged as well, like in the 1940s. The report offered a fairly benign outlook for telegraph operators. It said the downward trend of employment expected in the occupation over the long run will probably, probably not be sharp enough to cause heavy, prolonged layoffs.

Darren Woods (8:31)

That sounds like a missed prediction for me.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (8:33)

So Maxime tallied up the overall scoreboard. He looked at all of the projections from the 1940s through to the 1990s, and then he checked them against how the jobs actually did down the line.

Darren Woods (8:45)

These predictions are really strongly correlated with the employment trajectories. If you choose a job that the outlook was really optimistic about, there would be much higher growth in that occupation in the next 10 or 20 years.

Waylon Wong (8:57)

What Maxime found was that the top third of jobs that were projected to grow the fastest did grow a lot. They rose by 57% over two decades. The bottom third of projected jobs actually grew by only 12%.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (9:11)

How much of this accurate record could have just been done by looking at how fast jobs are growing now and then assuming that they'll continue growing at the same rate? Maxime found that existing job trends did account for a lot of that forecasting power.

Waylon Wong (9:25)

Right. So if warehousing jobs are growing a lot last decade, they're likely to continue growing next decade. That might be due to the continued rise of online shopping.

Darren Woods (9:35)

These things, at least historically, have just unfolded slowly.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (9:39)

That said, Maxime says the BLS did add value.

Darren Woods (9:42)

When you compare them head to head, the occupational outlook wins out a little bit. So if you had to just choose one source, you would still go with the bls.

Waylon Wong (9:50)

The BLS does its own backwards looking assessments of how accurate its projections have been. And Sarah Mattson from the agency says that the most recent evaluation shows that the BLS correctly projected whether an occupational group would grow or shrink almost 70% of the time.

Sarah Mattson (10:07)

And that's all available on our website for anyone to take a look at.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (10:11)

People like our listener, Asa Hess Matsumoto. As we heard, he was wondering if he could rely on the BLS projections when talking to the next generation of cybersecurity analysts. Well, you can rest assured the BLS has a pretty good track record.

Waylon Wong (10:26)

We told ASA what we learned and

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (10:29)

I actually have an answer for you.

Asa Hess Matsumoto (10:30)

Great.

Waylon Wong (10:31)

Yeah, we explained that the BLS takes long term job trends and extends them. Then it boosts these up and down depending on new technological or social changes. And evaluations afterwards show they're reasonably accurate.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (10:45)

What are your thoughts?

Asa Hess Matsumoto (10:48)

I mean, I'm pretty impressed that it's that accurate given how far out that they cast and how even looking back at the last few years, things have changed. That's incredible. That's really incredible.

Co-host (possibly Corey Bridges or another main host) (11:03)

Do you want us to take your question? Email us indicatorpr.org this episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Jimmy Keeley. It was fact checked by Sarah Juarez Cake and Kaden Edits the show and the indicator is a production of npr.

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Waylon Wong (11:45)

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