Summary of "Who's Advising Trump on Trade?"
The Indicator from Planet Money
Release Date: April 24, 2025
Host/Author: NPR

Introduction: The Trade Turmoil and White House Goals

In the April 24, 2025 episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, NPR delves into the intricate dynamics shaping the Trump administration's trade policies. Amidst volatile market swings driven by fluctuating hopes for trade deals and fears over persistent tariffs, the episode seeks to unravel the key influences steering the White House's economic strategies. Hosts Adrienne Ma and Darian Woods explore the pivotal question: What is the White House's end goal for trade?

Schools of Thought: Divergent Advisors Shaping Trade Policy

The episode identifies two primary factions among Trump's trade advisors, each advocating distinct strategies to navigate the global economic landscape:

1. Make America School
2. Weak Dollar School

Make America School: Prioritizing Domestic Manufacturing

Key Figures and Perspectives

• Peter Navarro: Senior Councillor for Trade and Manufacturing, representing the most fervent advocates for bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.

• Scott Besant: Treasury Secretary, positioning himself as the principal voice of this school. A former economic history educator, Besant brings a historical and security-focused lens to trade policy.

Core Arguments

• National Security and Manufacturing Resurgence: Advocates emphasize the necessity of rebuilding domestic manufacturing to ensure national security. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. faced critical shortages in essential goods, highlighting vulnerabilities in relying heavily on foreign production.

  "We couldn't even produce enough medical masks, let alone the semiconductor chips and steel that would help the country ride out an international emergency."
  — Scott Besant [03:34]

• Tariffs as Negotiation Tools: Beyond protecting domestic industries, tariffs are viewed as strategic measures to compel other nations to engage in fair trade practices. Besant has articulated that the elevated tariffs are not permanent but part of a negotiation tactic aimed at encouraging other countries to present favorable trade offers.

  "The tariffs are at a peak and it's now up to countries to come up with offers to begin to bring them down."
  — Simon Rabinovitch, US Economics Editor for The Economist [04:40]

Notable Insights

• Flexibility in Tariff Strategy: Besant acknowledges that the current high tariffs on China (145%) cannot remain indefinitely. He anticipates a prolonged negotiation process, estimating a potential trade deal within the next two to three years.

  "Negotiations with China haven't started yet and will be a slog. Still, he thinks a trade deal may be possible in the next two to three years."
  — Darian Woods [04:53]

Weak Dollar School: Addressing Currency Imbalances

Key Figures and Perspectives

• Stephen Myron: Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, leading the faction that argues the U.S. dollar's strength undermines American exporters by making their goods more expensive internationally.

Core Arguments

• Devaluing the Dollar to Boost Exports: The proponents contend that the dollar's overvaluation hampers U.S. exports, as a strong currency makes American products less competitive abroad. By weakening the dollar, exporters can gain a pricing advantage in global markets.

  "The cost for America in doing this is that you have a dollar that has been distorted... and that has held back American exporters."
  — Simon Rabinovitch [07:02]

• Global Economic Structure Disadvantage: Myron argues that the current global economic framework disproportionately favors the U.S., primarily due to the dollar's reserve currency status. This dominance results in economic imbalances that disadvantage U.S. interests.

  "The structure of the global economy has disadvantaged America."
  — Simon Rabinovitch [06:04]

• The Mar A Lago Accord: Myron proposes an ambitious plan where global leaders convene in South Florida to negotiate a collective agreement aimed at weakening the dollar. This accord aligns with Trump's intuitive sentiment that America has been economically wronged on the global stage.

  "The big idea in Stephen Myron's paper is that leaders of countries from around the world would descend on South Florida, make a grand deal with President Trump to help weaken the dollar. And this would be called the Mar A Lago Accord."
  — Adrienne Ma [07:51]

Notable Insights

• Economic and Political Risks: While a weaker dollar could benefit exporters, it poses significant risks, including increased inflation as imports become more expensive and higher borrowing costs. These trade-offs create a complex policy environment for the administration.

  "A weakening dollar might be good for exporters but it fuels inflation for consumers as imports get more expensive."
  — Adrienne Ma [08:05]

Internal Conflicts and Trump's Decision-Making

Divergent Views Within the Administration

The episode highlights a palpable tension between the two schools of thought, manifesting in conflicting approaches to trade policy. While Scott Besant adheres to a traditional stance favoring a strong dollar, Stephen Myron's proposals challenge this status quo by advocating for a weakened currency.

Discrepancies in Public Statements

This internal discord is exemplified by conflicting narratives presented to the public. When the administration decided to pause global tariffs in early April, Besant maintained that it was a deliberate strategic move, aligning with the negotiation tactic narrative.

"The change was Trump's strategy all along, nothing to do with the crumbling markets."
— Scott Besant [09:41]

Contrarily, President Trump contradicted Besant shortly after, attributing the pause to market conditions rather than a strategic decision.

"The pause was because of the falling bond market."
— President Trump [09:41]

This inconsistency underscores the challenges advisors face in influencing the president, who ultimately relies on instinctual judgments over expert recommendations.

Advisor Limitations

The episode illustrates the difficulties advisors encounter in shaping policy, as Trump's decisions may not always align with economic experts' recommendations. The reliance on gut feelings over structured economic strategies limits the effectiveness of even well-informed advisors.

"What ultimately matters to Trump is his gut."
— Adrienne Ma [09:58]

Current Status and Future Implications

As of the episode's release in April 2025, Scott Besant and his traditional economic perspectives appear to hold more sway within the White House. However, the presence of alternative viewpoints, like those of Stephen Myron, ensures ongoing debates and potential shifts in trade policy direction.

The administration's struggle to reconcile the benefits of a strong dollar against the push for a weaker currency reflects broader global economic tensions. The outcome of these internal debates will significantly influence the U.S.'s position in the global trading system, impacting everything from national security to consumer prices.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Trade Landscape

"Who's Advising Trump on Trade?" provides a nuanced exploration of the competing economic philosophies within the Trump administration. By dissecting the arguments of the Make America and Weak Dollar schools, the episode underscores the complexities of formulating effective trade policies in a rapidly evolving global economy. As advisors continue to "whisper" into the president's ear, the ultimate direction of U.S. trade policy remains a critical watchpoint for economists, businesses, and consumers alike.

Notable Quotes:

• "We couldn't even produce enough medical masks, let alone the semiconductor chips and steel that would help the country ride out an international emergency."
  — Scott Besant [03:34]

• "The tariffs are at a peak and it's now up to countries to come up with offers to begin to bring them down."
  — Simon Rabinovitch [04:40]

• "The cost for America in doing this is that you have a dollar that has been distorted... and that has held back American exporters."
  — Simon Rabinovitch [07:02]

• "What ultimately matters to Trump is his gut."
  — Adrienne Ma [09:58]

Produced by Lily Kiros, engineered by Kwesi Lee, fact-checked by Tyler Jones, and edited by Cake and Cannon. The Indicator is a production of NPR.