The Indicator from Planet Money
Episode: Why Beef Prices Are So High
Date: September 15, 2025
Hosts: Robert Smith and Waylon Wong
Notable Guest: Leila Ehsani (Dallas Fed), Jack Berger (Wyoming rancher)
Overview
In this episode, The Indicator dives into the soaring beef prices affecting American wallets. Through the lens of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and the playful “Beiji Awards,” the hosts explore the economic forces behind the spike in beef costs. They tap into regional data, economic analysis, and ranch-level anecdotes to provide a bite-sized yet insightful look at the supply and demand issues currently grilling the beef market.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The Beige Book & The Beiji Awards
- What is the Beige Book: A report from the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, sharing local economic stories and trends across the country.
- Beiji Awards: The show's regular recognition for the best, quirkiest, or most enlightening entries in the Beige Book.
- Main theme: This edition highlights the steep rise in beef prices and regional economic color about why that’s happening now.
The Economic Setup
- Labor Market Stagnation:
- The labor market is “frozen” and there is “inflation sneaking in around the edges.”
“It is a fascinating moment in the economy right now.” — Robert [01:30]
- The labor market is “frozen” and there is “inflation sneaking in around the edges.”
- Grocery Haul Inspired by Beige Book:
- Robert bought groceries (beef, eggs, dairy, corn) tracking recent Beige Book price anecdotes, noting beef is up while dairy and corn are down.
Honorable Mention: Alcohol Sales Slump ([03:06])
- NY Fed Insight:
- “Alcohol sales were slow during the summer.”
- Highlights a broader trend towards less alcohol consumption, also seen in San Francisco’s declining wine sales and even vine removal.
Main Award: Dallas Fed’s Beef Entry
- Winner: Dallas Fed’s story about high beef prices
- Excerpt read aloud:
“Cattle prices remained historically high amid solid demand and a decline in beef production. One factor limiting production was the suspension of cattle imports from Mexico… to protect US livestock from the new world screwworm, a parasitic fly.” — Read by Waylon [04:57]
- Hosts and guest Leila Ehsani break down the many reasons behind this entry’s selection.
- Excerpt read aloud:
Causes Behind High Beef Prices
Sustained Strong Demand
- Americans keep eating beef, even as social media trends like “beef tallow fries” go viral.
“People are still eating a lot of beef, so demand is high.” — Robert [05:20]
- Year-round barbecue culture in Texas keeps beef in demand.
“For Texas, the barbecue season runs all 12 months.” — Leila Ehsani [04:39]
Decreasing Domestic Supply
- Long-Term Herd Decline:
- US cattle inventory has been falling since the mid-1970s, recently accelerated by drought, high feed costs, and other pressures.
“Cattle inventory in the US has been declining since the mid-1970s. But that trend has become more pronounced over the past few years due to persistent droughts, higher feed costs, and other economic pressures.” — Leila Ehsani [05:47]
- Ranchers Liquidate Herds:
- Economic hardship leads some ranchers to send more cattle to market, shrinking long-term supply.
- Beef Imports Disrupted:
- Suspension of cattle imports from Mexico due to “New World Screwworm” parasite further tightens supply.
Rancher Perspective: The Cattle Cycle
- Guest: Jack Berger, Wyoming rancher
- The Cattle Cycle:
- When beef prices are low, some ranchers exit the business, shrinking herds and raising prices later.
“A few years ago cattle prices weren’t very good... That causes some people to leave the business. And those that stay, there’s fewer of us and fewer cattle... and that drives prices up.” — Jack Berger [07:29]
- Growing a herd takes years; today’s decisions affect beef supply many years out.
“It would take five years to increase [the] herd... who knows what the cattle prices will be in five years.” — Robert [07:47]
Rising Rancher Costs
- Higher Profits, But Higher Costs:
- Ranchers like Jack earn more from higher prices, but input costs (fuel, tires, fertilizer) are also rising.
“We got more income. But our costs, our fuel, our tires, our fertilizer have gone up the last few years, and that affects us, too.” — Jack Berger [08:17]
Trade Policy Factors
- Tariffs & Exports:
- Some markets, like Australia, have begun importing US beef after tariff changes.
“Australia’s finally taking some beef... They just didn’t want ours because it’s so much higher quality.” — Jack Berger [08:54]
- Hosts gently joke about rancher pride in American beef quality.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On the eternal relevance of frittata:
“Frittata is always the answer. When you don't know what to make, just throw it all in there.” — Robert [01:07]
-
On Texas stereotypes and the Beige Book:
“I feel like every time the Dallas Fed wins, it’s for an entry about oil or cattle.” — Robert [09:37]
-
On American beef bragging rights:
“I don’t think there’s any country that can claim the quality that we have in the United States.” — Jack Berger [09:16]
“Always be selling the beef.” — Robert [09:20]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [01:17] – Start of Beiji Awards explanation
- [03:06] – NY Fed mention: Alcohol sales slow
- [03:57] – Dallas Fed wins award; Leila Ehsani interview begins
- [04:57] – Cattle prices reading and break down
- [05:47] – Reason for herd decline: Leila Ehsani’s analysis
- [06:44] – Introduction of rancher Jack Berger
- [07:29] – Rancher explains the cattle cycle
- [08:17] – Discussion of rising rancher costs
- [08:54] – Tariffs and international beef trade
- [09:37] – Wrap-up, host reflections, and closing banter
Conclusion
This episode of The Indicator succinctly illustrates why beef prices remain high: it’s a potent mix of strong demand, shrinking domestic supply, international trade complications, and the slow-moving nature of the cattle business. Through data, local anecdotes, and a touch of culinary humor, the show explains both short-term price shocks and the deep-rooted, cyclical patterns in American beef production.
If you’re searching for the reasons behind your expensive cheeseburger or barbecue brisket, this episode provides both the big-picture economics and the on-the-ground realities.