Why the $250 bill would be good … For criminals!

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Why the $250 Bill Would Be Good ... For Criminals!"

Podcast: The Indicator from Planet Money
Date: June 23, 2026
Hosts: Waylon Wong, Paddy Hirsch
Guests: Ken Rogoff (Harvard Economics Professor), Oliver Bullough (Author/Journalist)

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles the controversial proposal for a new $250 bill, potentially featuring President Donald Trump. The discussion centers on how large-denomination bills are particularly appealing to criminals—especially tax dodgers—and why introducing such a high-value note could have unintended negative consequences for the U.S. economy, despite claims that it would promote patriotism or address inflation. The conversation walks through the mechanics of why big notes exist, who really uses them, and why experts think this proposal is a "gift to criminals."

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Proposal: A $250 Trump Bill

• Background: The plan isn't officially from Donald Trump. Instead, the public proponent is Rep. Joe Wilson (South Carolina) [02:36].
• Justifications given:
  • Celebrate the nation's 250th birthday.
  • "To lionize Mr. Trump"—the suggested image (with Wilson’s quote: "the most valuable bill for the most valuable president") [02:47].
  • Compensate for the $100 bill’s diminished purchasing power [02:52].

2. Legal and Bureaucratic Hurdles

• Agencies involved: Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Secret Service would all need to agree [00:20].
• Legal obstacle: Existing law forbids living presidents on currency; Congressional approval would be required [00:25, 00:35].

3. Who Uses Large Denomination Bills—and Why?

• Domestic use: Most Americans rarely use $100 bills; only 14% of U.S. transactions are in cash [03:27].
• Global context: The majority of $100 bills are held internationally, not by U.S. residents [04:00].
• Criminal appeal:
  • Oliver Bullough: "The only real useful purpose for a high denomination bill is if you want to move a lot of value in a small space at one time. And the only people that want to do that really are criminals." [04:08]
  • High notes minimize physical bulk—favored for drug trafficking, money laundering, tax evasion, etc. [04:08—04:59].

4. Economic Incentives for the U.S. Government

• Seigniorage explained: Issuing physical cash provides an interest-free loan to the government—currently $2.4 trillion is outstanding [06:25].
• Ken Rogoff: "They're good for the treasury because they don't pay interest. Whereas if they borrow on the market, right now the 10 year interest rate is 4.5%. They're not paying any interest." [07:18]

5. Big Bills vs. Tax Evasion

• Expert Take: Both Rogoff and Bullough argue the downside—loss of tax revenue due to cash-facilitated tax dodging—greatly outweighs the upside [07:32].
• Rogoff:
  • “A lot of the people are using the $100 bills aren't paying any taxes or as much taxes, and that's a much bigger number.” [07:38]
  • IRS estimates tax evasion at ~$1 trillion annually [07:54].
  • “The tax evasion swamps what they're getting from printing the notes.” [07:54]
  • “If we took them away, tax collections would go up. Enforcement would be easier.” [08:26]

6. Global Trends: Phasing Out Big Notes

• **Europe stopped printing the €500 note ("the famous bin Laden") by 2019 [05:55].
• Singapore discontinued the 10,000-SGD note in 2014.
• The U.S. considered nixing the $100 in the 1970s but kept it for the economic benefit [06:18].

7. Why Not Just Use Crypto?

• Cash vs. Crypto:
  • “There's no blockchain attached to a $100 bill. Which makes cash even more anonymous than crypto.” —Waylon Wong [05:25]
  • Oliver Bullough: Criminals use both, as each has its own appeal and anonymity advantages [05:39].

8. The $250 Bill: Risks and Conclusion

• Ken Rogoff: “The creation of a $250 note would be a big mistake... if it did, he says the government would end up losing a whole lot of tax money on the deal, and that would be really bad for America.” [09:33]
• Hosts’ wrap-up: This note likely won’t become reality, but if it did, it would make the U.S. government’s efforts against financial crime and tax evasion much harder—and be a boon to those breaking the law [09:33–09:44].

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The only real useful purpose for a high denomination bill is if you want to move a lot of value in a small space at one time. And the only people that want to do that really are criminals."
  — Oliver Bullough [04:08]

• "A lot of the people are using the $100 bills aren't paying any taxes or as much taxes, and that's a much bigger number."
  — Ken Rogoff [07:38]

• "Tax evasion is very large in the United States. The IRS estimated it was around a trillion dollars a year. The tax evasion swamps what they're getting from printing the notes."
  — Ken Rogoff [07:54]

• "If we took them away, tax collections would go up. Enforcement would be easier."
  — Ken Rogoff [08:26]

• "America 250." (Waylon Wong’s tongue-in-cheek closing refrain at every mention of the new bill) [09:44]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:09 — Episode introduction
• 02:36 — Rep. Joe Wilson’s justification (celebration, Trump, inflation)
• 03:13 — Ken Rogoff explains why $100 isn't worth what it used to be
• 03:27 — Americans’ declining use of cash
• 04:08 — Oliver Bullough on why criminals love big bills
• 04:59 — Ken Rogoff on physical convenience for criminals
• 05:55 — Comparisons to big notes in other countries
• 06:25 — Oliver Bullough explains the U.S. incentive to keep big bills
• 07:18 — Ken Rogoff on seigniorage (interest-free loan)
• 07:54 — Rogoff estimates annual scale of tax evasion
• 08:26 — Rogoff on the impact of eliminating big notes on tax enforcement
• 09:33 — Rogoff’s final warning: a $250 note would hurt American tax collection

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Tone and Style

• Conversational and witty: Frequent asides like “Damn tax dodgers” (Paddy Hirsch, recurring motif, e.g., [07:53]) add humor.
• Analytical yet accessible: Complex economic concepts are broken down with analogies (e.g., explaining seigniorage with Federal Reserve notes).
• Candid expert input: Neither guest is shy about the dangers of high-denomination bills.

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Summary Takeaway

Despite its potentially patriotic branding, a $250 bill is a financial tool with enormous benefit to criminals and tax cheats, not everyday Americans. Historical precedent and expert opinion agree: making it easier to hide wealth in cash undermines financial crime enforcement and would cost the U.S. government far more in lost tax revenue than it ever makes from printing new currency.

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Transcript

[Ken Rogoff]

Npr.

[Waylon Wong]

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong.

[Paddy Hirsch]

And I'm Paddy Hirsch. A plan to create a new $250 note adorned with the visage of President Donald Trump has attracted a lot of criticism and opposition, and it's complicated.

[Waylon Wong]

The Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the Secret Service would need to agree for it to happen.

[Paddy Hirsch]

And then there's the idea that the note would depict the president. This would contravene a law that prohibits the likeness of any L from appearing on US Currency, bonds or securities.

[Waylon Wong]

So Congress would need to approve, too. But there's one area of opposition that hasn't received much attention. The idea that a $250 note would be a gift to criminals.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Drug dealers, arms smugglers, people traffickers, money launderers. They all love to use large denomination notes. On today's show, we'll look at how they use them and how minting a $250 note could really, really help one type of criminal in particular.

[Waylon Wong]

Spoiler alert. Tax dodgers.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Damn tax dodgers.

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[Waylon Wong]

idea of creating a $250 note is not President Trump's, at least not officially. He has been notably silent on the matter.

[Oliver Bullough]

Yeah.

[Paddy Hirsch]

The public face of the plan is Representative Joe Wilson of South Carolina. He's given three reasons. First, to celebrate 250 years of American independence. Second, to lionize Mr. Trump.

[Waylon Wong]

Yeah, didn't he say something like the most valuable bill for the most valuable president.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Yes, he. And the third reason he gave for the new note is to compensate for the erosion of value of the hundred dollar bill, the largest bill that we print in America today.

[Waylon Wong]

And he's not wrong about that last part. Ken Rogoff is a professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. He also just wrote a book called Our dollar, your problem 100 is not

[Ken Rogoff]

worth what it used to be. What was a hundred dollar bills probably worth closer to $80 now compared to just six. But nevertheless they're not something most people

[Paddy Hirsch]

use every day, certainly not in the U.S. americans use cash in only about 14% of financial transactions these days. And yet there are more physical dollars in circulation than ever. That's according to Oliver Bulow. He writes about financial crimes. He's the author of the books Moneyland and Everybody loves our Dollars.

[Oliver Bullough]

If you look at the value of US dollars in circulation, it doubled every decade as long as I've been alive. Almost entirety of that doubling has been made up by $100 bills. There were 20 years ago, just over 5 billion of them. Now there's almost 20 billion of them.

[Waylon Wong]

The Federal Reserve estimates that the majority of those hundreds are held outside of the U.S. so if Americans aren't using them, who is?

[Oliver Bullough]

Why is there so much demand for cash money despite the fact that ordinary people aren't using it? Is something that I think is explainable essentially entirely by its use by criminals. The only real useful purpose for a high denomination bill is if you want to move a lot of value in a small space at one time. And the only people that want to do that really are criminals.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Well, the Fed might not agree with him entirely about that. Back in 2017, a Fed economist called Ruth Judson looked at the high number of hundred dollar notes held by foreigners. She said it's hard to assess how much US currency is used exclusively for criminal transactions. I mean, dollars are popular with ordinary people all around the world. You know, people who can't trust their governments or banks. And you know, us hundreds are a bit like gold. People buy them believing they'll hold their value. But Ken Rogoff says criminals do love big notes.

[Ken Rogoff]

So people, they hide it in safes, they hide it in their walls. I'm not making this up. There's tons of police evidence on this. You know, the hundred dollar bills you can fit conveniently in a little corner depending on how many of them you have. And you have $20 bills, even you need five times as much space. They're five times as heavy. I mean that may sound. That's ridiculous. No, it's a big deal. It's why they are so popular.

[Waylon Wong]

And they're popular despite the rise of cryptocurrency. That's because there's no blockchain attached to a $100 bill. Which makes cash even more anonymous than crypto. Oliver Bulow says criminals are using them both in tandem.

[Oliver Bullough]

And it's not an either or. You have a great synergy between the users of cash to commit criminality and the users of crypto. They just swapped one for the other. So you have a real useful degree of acceptance on the street level and convenience on the international level.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Governments have cottoned onto the fact that big notes can help criminals. And with one or two notable exceptions, most are steering clear of size these days. The Europeans stopped printing their €500 note, the famous bin Laden. By 2019. Singapore quit printing its 10,000 Singapore dollar note. That's more than 7,000 U.S. by the way, in 2014 here in the U.S.

[Waylon Wong]

we considered getting rid of the $100 note back in the 70s. But Oliver says there's one big reason we didn't.

[Oliver Bullough]

The 2.4, slightly more than $2.4 trillion outstanding of U.S. dollar banknotes is a $2.4 trillion interest free loan to the United States. If you take that away, then they're going to have to find that money from somewhere else and they're going to have to pay interest on it.

[Paddy Hirsch]

So let me explain how this works. Do you have a hundred dollar bill on you, Wayland? Of course you don't. It's not a problem. All US dollar bills have this written on them. Written on the top there. Federal Reserve note. This means that it is a promissory note, an IOU issued by the Central bank of the United States. You give the government $100 worth of stuff or work and in return the government gives you this note. The government holds your hundred dollars worth of whatever and pays no interest on it while you use the paper as a currency. Which is pretty nifty, right?

[Waylon Wong]

Yes. It's no wonder, as Ken Rogoff says, that printing $100 notes is an irresistible business for the US government.

[Ken Rogoff]

They're good for the treasury because they don't pay interest. Whereas if they borrow on the market, you know, right now the 10 year interest rate is 4.5%. They're not paying any interest. They like that.

[Paddy Hirsch]

But Ken says it's penny wise and pound foolish for the government to keep issuing these large denomination notes.

[Ken Rogoff]

A lot of the people are using the $100 bills aren't paying any taxes or as much taxes, and that's a much bigger number.

[Waylon Wong]

That's right. It's not just drug dealers and money launderers who like big notes. Tax dodgers love them, too.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Damn tax dodgers.

[Ken Rogoff]

Tax evasion is very large in the United States. The IRS estimated it was around a trillion dollars a year. The tax evasion swamps what they're getting from printing the notes.

[Paddy Hirsch]

In other words, we lose way more money from tax evasion each year than we make from printing new currency as a result. If they could, both Ken and Oliver would stop the government printing hundred dollar bills tomorrow. They say it would be the single most effective thing the US government could do to fight financial crime. And Ken says it wouldn't make that much difference to most Americans.

[Ken Rogoff]

The average person, many, many surveys show, doesn't use them that much. And yeah, sometimes somebody says to me, oh, I pay my caretaker in hundred dollar bills, or I pay my trainer with hundred dollar bills. But okay, I'm not trying to be judgy about it, but obviously the point of it is they're not reporting it in taxes. If we took them away, tax collections would go up. Enforcement would be easier. It's not just doing the deal that's hiding the money, putting it into circulation. I mean, all of these things.

[Waylon Wong]

The creation of a $250 note would be a big mistake, Ken says. I mean, sure, it would certainly beat out those Europeans with their €200 note, and it might net the US government more money on the front end.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Yeah, but it would make enforcement of financial and other crimes much more difficult. And tax crimes in particular.

[Waylon Wong]

A $250 note would make it easier to dodge tax simply because cash transactions are easy to make anonymous, and it's a lot easier to transact in cash if you' large notes.

[Paddy Hirsch]

Ken doesn't believe this note will come to pass for a variety of reasons, but if it did, he says the government would end up losing a whole lot of tax money on the deal, and that would be really bad for America.

[Waylon Wong]

America 250. I've just been yelling that indiscriminately at every mention of America. This episode was produced by Angel Carreras with engineering by Kwesi Lee, was fact checked by Cier Juarez. Kicking Cannon is our editor, and the indicator is a production of npr.

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