AI, geopolitics, strategy drift - and other takeaways from the Global Summit

Summary

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The Infrastructure Investor Podcast

Episode: AI, Geopolitics, Strategy Drift – and Other Takeaways from the Global Summit

Date: March 30, 2026
Location: Berlin, Infrastructure Investor Global Summit

Host: James Lineker (Editor, PEI Group)
Panel:

• Bruno Alves (Editor-in-Chief, Infrastructure Investor)
• Calliope Qantis (Deputy Editor)
• Daniel Kemp (APAC Editor, PEI Group)
• Natalie Tidman (Editor, Infrastructure Investor Deals)

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Episode Overview

This episode features the editorial team of Infrastructure Investor reflecting on key themes, conversations, and insights from the 2026 Infrastructure Investor Global Summit. The discussion traverses the evolution and “strategy drift” in infrastructure investing, the industry’s sense of geopolitical risk in the face of conflict in the Middle East, renewed appetite for nuclear energy, the dominance of energy transition and digital infrastructure, and the implications for fundraising and dealmaking in the sector.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Strategy Drift and Asset Class Evolution (00:53–03:17)

• Definition and Concerns:

  • Bruno Alves introduced the classic yet urgent debate on "strategy drift"—the phenomenon where infrastructure managers broaden strategies, sometimes edging into private equity or real estate turf, potentially diluting what makes infrastructure unique.
    • Quote [00:53]:
      “The line between evolution and strategy drift is quite thin... if you blur the lines with RE or with PE, then for them [LPs] it's less interesting and their allocation to infrastructure starts getting diluted.” – Bruno Alves

• Divergence in Core Plus Definitions:

  • Daniel Kemp described moderating a panel on Core Plus Infrastructure, highlighting how the definition of “core plus” varies from almost pure-core to almost private equity risk levels. The market appears confused over what actually constitutes “infrastructure” today.
    • Quote [02:21]:
      “It's clear that the definition of what is infrastructure has broadened out massively in the last 10, 20 years.” – Daniel Kemp

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2. Geopolitical Risks, the “Bubble”, and Industry Sentiment (03:17–05:48)

• Complacency Regarding Geopolitics:

  • Calliope Qantis summarized off-stage sentiments that participants might be too sanguine about the risks posed by the Iran war. She noted a “bubble” mentality—public discourse plays down risk, whereas privately, some industry players are worried the sector is not pricing in enough caution.

    • Quote [03:27]:
      “I just think people need to be a little bit more cautious... bubbles do burst.” – Calliope Qantis

  • Bruno Alves reported a similar feeling among delegates:

    • Quote [04:55]:
      “Do you know who was unconcerned in 2007? Real estate managers. Do you know who's unconcerned today? Infrastructure managers.”

• The Long View Isn’t Enough:

  • Calliope warned that while infrastructure is a “long-term asset,” ignoring short-term disruptions (like active conflicts) could have significant impacts down the road.

    • Quote [05:23]:
      “You cannot disregard the short term because what's happening now will affect what the long term is going to look like.” – Calliope Qantis

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3. Nuclear Energy: From Pariah to Prospect (05:48–09:06)

• Revival of Nuclear Investment:

  • Natalie Tidman spotlighted how nuclear, a sector long shunned, is “very much back on the table,” especially after the landmark Sizewell C deal in the UK. Institutional investors (including La Caisse) pioneering private capital into new-build nuclear is seen as groundbreaking.

    • Quote [05:56]:
      “Nuclear was something of a dirty word still then... and now it’s very much back on the table.” – Natalie Tidman

    • Quote [07:53]:
      “You actually have private capital going into what's essentially a new build nuclear project... the interesting thing is how repeatable it's all going to be.” – Bruno Alves

• Blueprint for Future Deals:

  • There’s speculation about whether the regulatory/financial model used (RAB - Regulated Asset Base) can become a template for future nuclear projects, provided governments supply sufficient support and risk mitigation.

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4. Energy Transition, Digital Infrastructure & Data Centers (09:06–11:53)

• Dominant Themes:

  • Daniel Kemp highlighted the overwhelming focus on energy transition and digital infrastructure. Nuclear is now being factored into these strategies, while data centers have become the nexus where these themes converge.

    • Quote [09:20]:
      “The vast majority of the focus is on energy transition and digital infrastructure. The nuclear piece is interesting... the role of governments and their desire to have more control and sovereignty over their infrastructure assets in our volatile world...” – Daniel Kemp

    • Quote [11:17]:
      “Every manager has at least one, if not both, of those elements in their fund strategies... data centers are the hottest topic.”

• Government Influence:

  • Growing desire for national “data sovereignty” in the context of AI, and for energy security, is shaping where and how private capital is deployed.

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5. Industry Outlook: Resilience, Overconfidence, and Market Dynamics (11:53–16:55)

• Mixed Sentiment on Fragility vs. Optimism:

  • The editors observed a disconnect: a mood of relative confidence despite layer-upon-layer of risk (Middle East war, high interest rates, energy shortages). There's a risk the sector’s historic resilience is breeding complacency.

    • Quote [13:05]:
      “Infrastructure has proven its resilience... but maybe has created some kind of overconfidence.” – Calliope Qantis

    • Bruno Alves warned that direct impacts such as attacks on infrastructure assets (e.g., LNG plants, data centers) could create insurance and risk pricing challenges:

      • Quote [14:24]:
        “If this keeps going and these assets keep getting [hit], then, you know, the risk profile of the asset class obviously changes... If you get a multi-gigawatt data center bombed, it's not going to be easy to insure the next one.”

• Fundraising Environment:

  • Daniel Kemp stated that major managers are finding fundraising easier, with large funds being closed and a better investor response than a year ago; smaller or more specialist managers struggle more.
    • Quote [14:58]:
      “They are finding the fundraising environment easier than it has been for the last year or two.”

• Deal Market Mood Lift:

  • Natalie Tidman noted that, although deal flow remains sluggish and auctions tricky, the Summit seemed to inject optimism and strengthen market relationships.
    • Quote [15:55]:
      “People coming to Berlin and actually hearing about the opportunities... I think that is a huge mood boost for many in the market.”

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Bruno Alves:

  • “50% of the investable universe didn’t exist 10 years ago.” (00:53, referencing Scott Peak/Brookfield)
  • “If you blur the lines with RE or with PE, then for them it's less interesting and their allocation to infrastructure starts getting diluted.” (00:53)
  • “Do you know who was unconcerned in 2007? Real estate managers. Do you know who's unconcerned today? Infrastructure managers.” (04:55)
  • “If you get multi-gigawatt data center bombed, it's not going to be easy to insure the next one in that particular region.” (14:24)

• Calliope Qantis:

  • “Bubbles do burst.” (03:27)
  • “You cannot disregard the short term because what's happening now will affect what the long term is going to look like.” (05:23)
  • “Infrastructure has proven its resilience... but maybe has created some kind of overconfidence.” (13:05)

• Daniel Kemp:

  • “The definition of what is infrastructure has broadened out massively in the last 10, 20 years.” (02:21)
  • “The vast majority of the focus is on energy transition and digital infrastructure...” (09:20)
  • “They are finding the fundraising environment easier than it has been for the last year or two.” (14:58)

• Natalie Tidman:

  • “Nuclear was something of a dirty word... and now it’s very much back on the table.” (05:56)
  • “People coming to Berlin and actually hearing about the opportunities...is a huge mood boost for many in the market.” (15:55)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:53 – 03:17: Strategy drift and the evolving definition of infrastructure
• 03:17 – 05:48: Geopolitical risk, industry complacency, and the “bubble” discussion
• 05:48 – 09:06: Nuclear energy dealmaking and policy shifts
• 09:06 – 11:53: Energy transition, digital infrastructure and the data center boom
• 11:53 – end: Risk, fundraising momentum, dealflow, and outlook for 2026

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Conclusion

The editorial team left the Summit highlighting a complex landscape: a sector buoyed by innovation and “resilience,” but facing latent risks—from global conflict to rapid expansion into new asset classes. Renewed interest in nuclear, the convergence of energy and data infrastructure, and changing attitudes among investors signal a pivotal year ahead. Yet, caution underpins the optimism, reminding listeners that short-term volatility and overlooked risks could yet reshape the industry’s fate in 2026.

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Transcript

[A]

Hello and welcome to the Infrastructure Investor Podcast. I'm James Lineker, I'm an editor here at PEI Group and I'm sitting in Berlin towards the end of the Infrastructure Investor Global Summit with Bruno Alves, editor in Chief at Infrastructure Investor, Klapi Qantis, who is the Deputy editor, Daniel Kemp, who is the APAC editor for PEI Group. So that's Infrastructure Investor and other titles, and Natalie Tidman, the editor, Infrastructure Investor Deals. So we've got the dream team of the Infrastructure Investor editorial team here today and we're reflecting on what we've learned in the conference so far. It's been a jam packed session, there's been some great conversations, loads of very interesting takeaways. Bruno, if I start with you, what have you made of a conference and what will you take away from it?

[B]

Yes, I'm going to actually bring a bit of a conference classic to the table, which is strategy drift. Now, before you all go off to sleep, it's actually been quite an interesting journey here because we had Scott Peak from Brookfield on day one commenting on how 50% of the investable universe didn't exist 10 years ago. And then on day two, basically we had Sean Klimchak on stage and he's the global head of infrastructure for Blackstone. And he was basically saying that what keeps him up at night is what he called the private equitification. That's a mouthful of the asset class and it's what he called the like. Every time you see like infrastructure like, then you should start getting worried because it's when the asset class is kind of mudding the waters. And then Today on day three, you have a couple of LPs up on stage actually saying that they understand why managers have to evolve and strategies evolve. But you know that the line between evolution and strategy drift is quite thin and to kind of urging managers to keep the characteristics that make infrastructure the asset class that it is. Otherwise they say if you blur the lines with RE or with pe, then for them it's less interesting and their allocation to infrastructure starts getting diluted and so they divert money away from the asset class. So I thought that was quite interesting. It's a bit of a classic, but I think there's more concern now.

[A]

Absolutely. Dan, you were picking up on this as well actually, weren't you?

[C]

Yeah, so I actually moderated a panel today about Core plus Infrastructure which touched on a lot of similar themes. So it had a range of people on that panel who would all call themselves Core plus infrastructure investors, but there were some playing at the core end of Core plus who had maybe previously core investors and have just moved slightly up the risk spectrum. And there were others who were quite openly talking about the fact that what they do involves a private equity style skill set and we're playing much higher up the risk curve, yet they would still also call themselves a Core plus investor. And we had quite an interesting debate about whether the rise of that Core plus segment, whether the label actually means a lot anymore, and whether it's being the demand for is being driven by investors themselves, or whether it's the manager side perhaps drifting a bit and bringing the market along with them. We didn't really get to a definitive answer, frankly, but it's clear that the definition of what is infrastructure has broadened out massively in the last 10, 20 years.

[A]

And Calliope, I think you were picking up on a lack of concern, weren't you, about how the Iran war might be having impacts, kind of macro impacts, but also infra specific.

[D]

Yes. So that has come up in some of the sessions, at least as a question. But I think the more interesting or perhaps more candid opinions I've gotten in private, where I've had a few people approach me and say they feel that either most people here seem to be in some sort of bubble or that people are just not pricing in the risk that's coming with the Iran war. I mean, obviously nobody knows, you know, how it's going to develop or when it's going to end and so forth, but the people I spoke to said, you know, they just really feel that the industry, at least in terms of what people are saying publicly, is, you know, they're not as concerned as they should be. And that actually last year they seemed to be more in touch and more aware and more worried about the tariffs than they are about what's going on in the Middle east at the moment. And I think that's a mistake. And actually, just shortly before we were going to record this podcast, I ran into someone and, you know, one of the first things he said to me is, do you feel like people here are in a bubble? And, you know, and why is that? I said, perhaps, you know, people publicly, they want to put on, you know, come across more optimistic or put on more of a brave face, and they're not sharing their views publicly or, or it's wishful thinking. But the thing is with bubbles, you know, bubbles do burst. So I just think people need to be a little bit more cautious.

[B]

It's funny you say that, because I Also have gotten some of that strictly in on the sidelines of the event. And one person today I was having a chat with who was also a bit shocked at how unconcerned people seem to be or publicly at least about the whole around conflict. It kind of ended by telling me, you know, who was unconcerned in 2007? Real estate managers. Do you know who's unconcerned today? Infrastructure managers. So I found that quite telling.

[D]

Yes. And sorry, I want to, I just want to add something because one of the things that we hear over and over whenever there's some kind of crisis is, you know, the long term investment horizon of infrastructure investors. But I would say that, yes, okay, there is the long term, but you cannot disregard the short term because what's happening now will affect what the long term is going to look like.

[A]

Natalie, speaking of long term horizons, I know you wanted to pick up on Size Wealth C and that's a long running project.

[E]

Yeah, very much so. And I think what is really interesting this year at Berlin has been the focus on nuclear projects because I think it's fair to say that, you know, as recently as last year, I think nuclear was something of a dirty word still then. And that was, you know, 12 months ago and now it's very much back on the table. I think probably the highlight for me in that vein was my conversation with Alejandro Lopez Delgado from La CAS who led on the equity side of their investment into the Sizewell Sea project. And it was interesting to hear his perspective in terms of, you know, managing to emerge as the preferred equity bidder in a very competitive process. It was a groundbreaking financing in many respects, not least because it was the first time a private infrastructure investor had invested in a nuclear project. Obviously interesting for its ticket size, but also because we found a new way of basically another thing that ties into the energy transition and national security which really hadn't arisen this time last year. And so I kind of took that as a really interesting way of how the industry and the market has evolved quite quickly.

[A]

Yes, interesting. We are obviously here in Berlin. I did hear it said that Germany decommissioning its nuclear was the biggest mistake it had made.

[E]

There's definitely been a reversal in sentiment towards nuclear. So I'm hearing sort of anecdotally that quite a lot of governments that have decommissioned and have historically moved away from nuclear actually thinking again. And so it will be interesting to see how that pans out. It's going to be a slow burn as it was with Sizewell C But I think people are quite excited about the opportunities for investing in nuclear, which wasn't really a realistic prospect, you know, only a few years ago.

[B]

Yeah, I think it's size. Well, see, I mean it's quite something in the sense that you actually have private capital going into what's essentially a new build nuclear project, sizable as they all tend to be, et cetera. I think the interesting thing is how repeatable it's all going to be because it does have a tried and tested regulatory model, the RAB model, which was used in the Thames Tideway super sewer in London. Then it also has kind of government support padding out these kind of low probability high impact events. And they, you know, as Alejandro made the point on stage, they didn't really take development risks so they got it ready to build and it was pretty complex at that. And so all those things make for a very, very secur project. And then where does that pop up next? Or will it pop up next is kind of the interesting question. But no doubt nuclear is back on the table, as he put it.

[E]

I mean, it's true, absolutely. I think it's not a prospect if there isn't this government backed in a very heavily incentivized framework. And so if other nations do use that as almost like a blueprint for their own projects, it will be interesting to see how the private sector has an impact on how those will be structured in the future.

[A]

So Dan, let's turn to you then because one of the things I've always found is where to put nuclear in the energy transition. I think you were picking up on energy, but also digital being huge themes this year. What have you been paying attention to?

[C]

So it's probably not a very original observation to say that the vast majority of the focus is on energy transition and digital infrastructure. I think that's been the case for at least a few years now. The nuclear piece is interesting. There are definitely more fund managers talking about that as being in the mix for their energy strategies. If you walk the floor, every manager has at least one, if not both of those elements in some way in their fund strategies, whether it is a sector specific fund or whether it's part of their global or regional diversified funds. That's not really new, apart from one observation I'd make, is that it has just dominated most of the content we've seen. One thing that has changed, which relates to the point about nuclear I think, is that the focus, particularly on the energy side, but it also applies to digital, is the role of governments and Their desire to have more control and sovereignty over their infrastructure assets in our volatile world and the effect that's having on the opportunity set and where investors might be looking to try and deploy their capital. So we're seeing energy infrastructure is obviously a very hot topic at the moment, given what's happened in the Middle east and has exposed how vulnerable our own supply chains are to that part of the world. Still, particularly in the Asia Pacific region where I'm from, we're talking about fuel shortages in many of our markets, jet fuel being hard to come by in a few months and things like that. And as I said earlier, a lot of the managers that are particularly involved in clean energy energy transition, renewables, storage and I suppose nuclear too, they're seeing this as a positive tailwind for them. And this does apply to digital too because the AI race is very much underway and governments in Creeks England want to have data sovereignty as well. And that's only going to become a bigger theme. I'm not saying that that is driving the market. It's certainly not the particularly in digital, it's a market led phenomenon that is driving all the investment there. But where governments might want to see capital deployed can affect where investors are choosing to deploy.

[A]

No, I think that's interesting because you're right. Energy and digital have been huge things for a while now and they kind of converge on data centers. And every time I talk to people at data centers, they're very quick to tell me this isn't a new development, but it kind of is. It's suddenly data centers are the hottest topic. I think it's been half the panels are dedicated to them and the other half somehow managed to work it in there. So it really is where these two converge, isn't it?

[C]

Yeah, it's been a very prominent thematic this year. And as I say, many of the managers, even if they're not data center specialists, they're certainly looking at that subsector as something they might want to get involved in.

[A]

Okay guys, so there's been a lot to digest this week and as we're now reaching the end of Q1, how has the infrastructure investor Global Summit changed the way you are thinking about the rest of 2026?

[B]

I think one of the things that it's done is to sort of underline this dichotomy. We were just talking about this almost this absence of worry about the volatility of the situation and at the same time people will be required to just build out assets. As Esther Pyner, the head of infrastructure Partners group put it on day one, because we always come to this. We always talk about a crisis, we always talk about how we get through it, and we're always in a crisis. So you have this mix of unproccupied people and then this need of having to build out assets for what's a very volatile world. It's not going to change. High interest rates, conflicts, power shortages, you name it. And so I think that's going to be very interesting to observe. And particularly if the war in Iran keeps going and then the effects start to materialize, how the industry will deal with it and whether they will be able to deal with it. So that to me is something to watch out for.

[D]

I just want to add to that. So I think part of it is that because one of the things you do hear people say is, you know, infrastructure has proven its resilience. We've been through other crises, and I think the fact that the asset class has been able to withstand what's come before maybe has created some kind of overconfidence. And not to be pessimistic, I'm just going to throw out what could happen because I think a lot will depend on how the situation in the Middle east evolves, how long it lasts. But like an example is what's going on now with the Strait of Hormuz and so forth. It's not just energy that's a problem. There's also a problem related to chemicals that have to do with AI chips. So imagine with all the activity and investment and development in data centers, for example, if you have a shortage now, you know, in a very basic component that you can't get, you know, that will lead to project delays and so forth. So there are real impacts that can come out of this. And then, you know, if you think about the macro economy and inflation and so forth and interest rates and what have you, you know, it all can really become a big problem.

[B]

Let's not forget about the obvious thing also, which is, you know, we're in a war situation. A lot of what's getting attacked is infrastructure. You know, LNG plants, Amazon data centers. If this keeps going and these assets keep getting, then, you know, the risk profile of the asset class obviously changes. If you get multi gigawatt data center bombed, it's not going to be easy to insure the next one in that particular region. So I think. I'm not sure that's being appreciated. I know nobody wants to think of that, myself included, but it is a possibility.

[C]

One thing that I'll be watching out for is. So we've talked a bit about the exuberance that some of the managers are displaying. I think it's fair to say, anecdotally, at least from the conversations I've been having, particularly with the bigger managers, that they are finding the fundraising environment easier than it has been for the last year or two. We did see our fundraising figures were very strong last year. Now there are some nuances around timings of fund closes that play a role in that, but still the fact remains that we are seeing some very big funds raised and those guys are getting a good response when you talk to them. The other end of the market, they're finding it a bit harder, I think, and they're having to carve out their specialist niches to try and attract the same investor interest. I think this time last year around Liberation Day and tariffs, there was clearly investors put their pens down and weren't looking to commit capital. And I don't think that's happening at the moment with the current crisis yet. So we'll see how it develops.

[E]

And I think from a deals perspective, I think it's probably fair to say that the deals market has been pretty sluggish as a rule. Auction processes are really tricky. They don't always succeed. They're very expensive and costly. They're sometimes more trouble than they're worth. And so I think in the last, certainly in the run up to the end of 2025, there was, I think people were a bit despondent about the market. And I won't say that that's completely lifted. I think there's still an element of despondency. But I do feel like just in and of itself, people coming to Berlin and actually hearing about the opportunities and reconnecting with sources, clients, you know, you name it. I think that that is a huge mood boost for for many in the market. And so hopefully that's going to, it's going to culminate in a bit more dual activity. Not to say that we're single handedly responsible for it, but you know, just saying.

[A]

Well, I think that's, that's a lovely note to end it on. Bruno, Calliope, Dan and Natalie, thank you so much. I'm looking forward to seeing the rest of the year brings and doing this all again. Iigs2027. For more insights, to listen to more podcasts or to learn more about our conferences, go to infrastructureinvestor. Com.