In this episode of The Inside Brief, Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, joins host Manus Cranny for a deep dive on how investors should navigate a world shaped increasingly by power, policy, and long term structural forces rather than short term market headlines.

Mr Haefele reflects on the idea that geopolitical shocks often dominate news cycles but tend to have only brief market effects, while slower moving trends such as technology, government spending, and shifts in global power have a far greater influence on long term portfolio outcomes. He explains why investors must focus on how the world actually works today, rather than relying on assumptions rooted in a past era of free markets.

The conversation explores how governments now play a more active role in directing capital and influencing outcomes, effectively picking winners and losers across sectors. Mr Haefele outlines what this means for asset allocation, sovereign debt, and currencies, cautioning investors against assuming that markets will always operate independently of political objectives.

Mr Haefele also addresses the debate around artificial intelligence and whether markets are facing a bubble. He acknowledges that many companies in the AI space do not yet generate profits and rely on continued access to funding, but argues that this alone does not indicate an imminent collapse. In his view, strong earnings from AI adjacent companies, continuing capital investment, and government support suggest the theme still has momentum, even as risks increase and not all participants succeed.

In a personal reflection, Mr Haefele recounts his experience during the events of 9/11 and how witnessing a decisive trading moment reshaped his understanding of his own strengths as an investor. He explains why recognising what you are not good at can be as important as knowing what you are, and why discipline, humility, and asset allocation matter more than trying to catch every market moment.

The episode concludes with insights from Mr Haefele’s book The New Rules of Investing, where he argues that modern investors must rethink diversification, accept uncertainty, and follow the flow of capital shaped by policy, technology, and power rather than nostalgia for past market regimes.

UBS global CIO on the new rules of investing and how markets work now