Alexander Stubb, President of Finland: We live in a world of disorder

Summary

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The Interview: Alexander Stubb, President of Finland – "We live in a world of disorder"

Podcast: The Interview (BBC World Service)
Date: March 18, 2026
Host: Matt Chorley
Guest: Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

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OVERVIEW

In this episode, Matt Chorley speaks with Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, about the shifting global order amid ongoing conflicts, especially in the wake of Russia's war in Ukraine and recent moves by the Trump administration in the US. Stubb discusses NATO’s role, the transatlantic relationship, the pressures facing European countries, and how Finland is navigating a world marked by uncertainty and conflict. Throughout the conversation, Stubb offers insights into balancing pragmatism and optimism, Finland’s pragmatic defense stance, and the importance of cooperation over confrontation.

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KEY DISCUSSION POINTS & INSIGHTS

The State of Global Disorder and Realignment

• Transitioning World Order: Stubb situates the current moment as a historical inflection point, akin to the aftermaths of WWI, WWII, and the Cold War (03:17).

  “We are right now in a transition. So it's a little bit from a Western perspective, the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment, when the order is changing and we don't know where it's going to settle.” (03:17 – Stubb)

• Complacency of the West: After the Cold War, there was overconfidence that Western liberal democracy was the inevitable world end state, which changed after Ukraine’s invasion (03:17).
• Fragmentation of Alliances: Current US foreign policy is more ideological and self-oriented compared to the collaborative approach of previous decades (04:20).

  “The US has a very different foreign policy right now. It's quite ideological. It's quite interest driven. It acts as a hegemon.” (04:20 – Stubb)

NATO, the US, and the War in Iran

• NATO’s Nature & Limits: Stubb insists NATO is fundamentally defensive and not designed for “wars of choice” initiated by single members (02:23, 07:04).

  “NATO is a defense alliance. It's a military alliance. It's not an alliance that attacks. That's the basic idea.” (02:23 – Stubb)

  • Finnish support is grounded in defending its own territory, especially given its long border with Russia (05:07).
• America’s Changing Role: US attacks on Iran were a surprise to allies; Stubb calls for de-escalation and negotiation, saying Finland’s main contribution is regional security (05:07).

  “The US... used to consult allies and international institutions before something happened... So this was a surprise attack. So none of us knew about it.” (05:07 – Stubb)

• Collective Defense Still Strong: Despite tensions, Stubb asserts the core principle of NATO’s Article 5 remains intact for Finland and others (06:16).

  “Of course, we are part of Article 5, collective defense. One for all, all for one, out of the question that we wouldn't support the U.S.” (06:16 – Stubb)

• On Trump’s NATO Critique: Stubb sees President Trump’s demands as a test of alliance loyalty, but maintains NATO solidarity (06:02).

Relationship with Donald Trump

• Maintaining Dialogue: Stubb downplays the “Trump whisperer” label, emphasizing the importance of open communication with global leaders (08:57).

  "If I can throw out one idea on the war of Ukraine out of 10 that he might hook onto, I'll be very happy. But he makes very much his own decisions." (08:57 – Stubb)

• Personal Diplomacy: Stubb recalls playing golf with Trump, noting that such activities reveal personality and help build rapport (11:29).

  “You see the personality of a human being kind of on the first hole. You see how they react to bad shots and good shots. We had a very pleasant round.” (11:49 – Stubb)

• Difficult Conversations: Trust allows for candid exchanges, but it's vital to choose battles wisely (13:21).

  “Once you reach a certain point of trust, then you can be a little bit tougher on things that you disagree, but you kind of have to pick your battles.” (13:21 – Stubb)

Finland’s Defense Posture & Perspective on Russia

• Preparedness and Calm: Finland maintains a unique defense structure (conscription, strong artillery, advanced aircraft) due to its proximity to Russia—not out of fear, but out of pragmatism (14:20, 15:09).

  “We have over 1 million men and women who've been trained in the military service... We have the biggest artillery together in Europe, together with Poland.” (14:20 – Stubb) “I sleep my nights actually quite, quite calmly. We've always had a good relationship with Russia as well. You know, we are trustworthy.” (15:09 – Stubb)

• No Imminent Threat from Russia: Stubb clarifies that Finland doesn’t see an immediate risk of invasion, though long-term caution remains due to the conflict in Ukraine (16:02).

  “We don't see an imminent security threat from Russia, but we do see a long term threat, depending of course on how the war in Ukraine ends.” (16:02 – Stubb)

• Lessons for Allies: Other countries, especially some in Central Asia, have more acute fears over Russian imperialism (16:02).

The Economics & Political Ramifications of War

• Rising Oil Prices & Sanctions Policy: Stubb critiques the recent US decision to lift some sanctions on Russian oil, which indirectly aids Russia’s war effort in Ukraine (17:39).

  “We actually should put more pressure on the Russian economy...I am worried about [lifting sanctions].” (17:49 – Stubb)

• Ukraine’s Progress and Finland’s Solidarity: Stubb describes Ukraine’s battlefield successes and frames their struggle as shared by Finland and the West (18:57).

  “Ukraine's fight is our fight.” (19:53 – Stubb)

• US “Mediator” Role: He notes the shift in US posture from clear support of Ukraine to attempting mediation between Russia and Ukraine due to its new foreign policy priorities (18:57).
• National Security Priorities: Stubb outlines the MAGA/“America First” principles guiding US foreign policy, with Europe further down the list than previously, forcing allies to adapt (21:29).

  "Live in a world or do your foreign policy in a world that exists, not [the one] that you wish would exist." (21:29 – Stubb)

Advice for UK-US Relations and the Cost of Living

• Navigating Relationships: Stubb's advice for UK PM Keir Starmer (and others) is to not take Trump’s personal remarks too seriously and accept the oscillating nature of bilateral relations (22:56).

  “Don’t take everything so personally... relationships with President Trump do oscillate.” (22:56 – Stubb)

• Coping with Instability: Stubb recognizes the increasing burden of defense spending and cost-of-living pressures due to global turmoil (23:31).
• Optimism Amid Uncertainty: He draws hope from history’s “San Francisco moment” (post-WWII UN founding), suggesting new forms of global cooperation are possible, even under challenging leadership (24:15).

  “Why can't we do that again? In a world where AI is predominant, technological revolution in general, where there are conflicts, and where we're not even talking about the climate crisis. So let's get back to the drawing board and try to solve these things together rather than going our separate ways.” (24:15 – Stubb)

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NOTABLE QUOTES & MEMORABLE MOMENTS

• On the current global situation:
  • “If you're not a little bit afraid, then you're not paying attention. We have never seen a people so united.” (01:31 – Stubb)
  • “We live a little bit in a world of disorder.” (03:17 – Stubb)
• On NATO’s mission:
  • “NATO is not an alliance that attacks. That's the basic idea.” (07:04 – Stubb)
• On building rapport with Trump:
  • “We were on the winning team, but we had a lot of fun... You see the personality of a human being kind of on the first hole.” (11:49 – Stubb)
  • “You can invite anyone to a sauna because it's a very soothing place.” (12:51 – Stubb)
• On Finnish defense:
  • “We have the biggest artillery together in Europe, together with Poland. We don't have them because we are worried about Sweden.” (14:20 – Stubb)
• On resilience and relationships:
  • “Once you reach a certain point of trust, then you can be a little bit tougher on things that you disagree, but you kind of have to pick your battles.” (13:21 – Stubb)
• On global outlook:
  • “Live in a world or do your foreign policy in a world that exists, not [the one] that you wish would exist.” (21:29 – Stubb)

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TIMESTAMPS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEGMENTS

• [03:17] – Stubb on the historical transition and world disorder.
• [04:20] – The US’s new foreign policy approach.
• [05:07] – Finland’s response to US action in Iran and NATO’s defensive nature.
• [06:16] – Commitment to NATO collective defense.
• [08:57] – Stubb on cultivating a relationship with Trump.
• [11:29] – Golf diplomacy and building personal rapport.
• [13:21] – On trust and frank conversations with world leaders.
• [15:09] – Finnish defense preparedness and view of Russia.
• [17:49] – Concerns over US lifting oil sanctions on Russia.
• [19:53] – Ukraine’s fight and European defense spending.
• [21:29] – America’s new “pecking order” in foreign policy.
• [22:56] – Advice for UK leadership and managing difficult relationships.
• [24:15] – Hope for a new “San Francisco moment” and international cooperation.

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SUMMARY

This episode of The Interview offers a candid, nuanced conversation with President Alexander Stubb, who navigates the complex realities of contemporary geopolitics with a blend of pragmatism and optimism. He underscores the recalibration of world power structures, the evolving role of the US and NATO, and Finland’s steadfast but cool-headed defense strategy. Stubb’s relationship with President Trump is explored as a case study in the power of personal diplomacy and maintaining dialogue, even amid substantive disagreements. The overall tone is realistic yet constructive, encouraging Western allies to adapt to new circumstances and seek cooperative solutions in a world “in disorder.”

Transcript

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[Megan McCardell]

Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic, and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.

[Alexander Stubb]

It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

You know, I am a believer in America and that's worth fighting for.

[Megan McCardell]

Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Hello, I'm Matt Chorley, BBC presenter, and this is the interview from the BBC World Service. The best conversations coming out of the BBC People shaping our world from all over the world.

[Alexander Stubb]

If you're not a little bit afraid, then you're not paying attention. We have never seen a people so united.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Do not make that boat crossing. Do not make that journey.

[Alexander Stubb]

Being born in America, feeling American, having

[Megan McCardell]

people treat me like I'm not.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

We're more popular than populism. For this interview, I met Finland's president, Alexander Stube, while he was on a visit to London. He believes the world is at a point of transition, with political priorities and allegiances shifting, a process of change that started with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has continued apace under the second Trump administration. We are currently living, he tells me, in a world of disorder. Alexander Stoop is also believed to have the ear of the US leader. They share a love of golf. But does he agree that NATO should be doing more to support America in its ongoing war with Iran?

[Alexander Stubb]

It's not Article 3, Article 4 or Article 5 of NATO, because that for us, is about protecting ourselves in a situation so What? I've always said that NATO is a defense alliance. It's a military alliance. It's not an alliance that attacks. That's the basic idea. When NATO 2.0 was sort of founded after the end of the Cold War, we went a lot into crisis management or peacekeeping. Right. We did that in Kosovo, we did it in Afghanistan. And then there was always a UN Mandate to do that. So that's fine. But this is not, you know, NATO per definition. This is very much the US And Israel.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Welcome to the interview from the World Service with Alexander Stubborn. We meet at a moment where it feels like the world order is being redrawn. How do you see the world falling into different groups, different blocks right now?

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, we are right now in a transition. So it's a little bit from a Western perspective, the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment, when the order is changing and we don't know where it's going to settle. So after World War I, the League of nations wasn't strong enough. We end up in World War II. After World War II, the United nations is strong enough to keep world peace for 40 years or four decades. And then after the Cold War, we kind of get intellectually lazy and we think that everyone wants to be like us, all 200 nation states of the world. History is over. Let's do liberal democracy, social market economy, and globalization. And then something started happening early on, and for me, the changing date was the war in Ukraine on February 2022, and then probably the new American administration. So we don't know where the world is going to land, so we live a little bit in a world of disorder. Right now, unfortunately, one of the blocks

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

you talk about is the global west of liberal democracies led by America. But right now, we find America at odds with lots of the liberal democracies you're talking about.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, probably. We have to be realistic. And don't get me wrong, I'm pro American and an avid transatlanticist, but the US Has a very different foreign policy right now. It's quite ideological. It's quite interest driven. It's. It acts as a hegemon. So in that sense, it's quite different from what I envisage. It was one of the scenarios, but

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

nevertheless, these things move quickly. Let's focus on some of what President Trump has been saying, literally in the last few hours, the last few days, in the wake of his decision to launch an attack on Iran, he's been very critical of allies who didn't join him and who haven't in his view, anyway, been supportive enough, and now he's saying it will be very bad for the future of NATO if allies don't work with him to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. What's your take on that? Should NATO allies, including Finland, join the

[Alexander Stubb]

US The US when it was more or less a benign hegemon, it used to consult allies and international institutions before something happened. This was the case in Kosovo, this was the case in Libya, this was the case in Iraq, and this was the case in Afghanistan. So it sort of went with the allies. So this was a surprise attack. So none of us knew about it. And that's why probably there's been reluctance and a little bit of a pushback then for a country like Finland. You know, we are up there in the northeastern corner of Europe, so we have our own backyard to take care of 1340km or border with Russia. So that's the part that we do for the alliance. We wouldn't have much to give. You know, we don't have basis, these kinds of things to give. What I think I'd like to see now is more peace mediation. You know, we need to find a way out negotiation. So that's what I'd probably be flagging for right now.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

But it feels like President Trump is turning this into a sort of virility test of NATO allies. He said today, just this afternoon, talking about NATO again, he says, I know we'll protect them because I'll say if we ever needed help, they won't be there for us.

[Alexander Stubb]

They. They will be. You have to remember that the Arctic, especially northern Finland, northern Sweden, and northern Norway, is the key for protecting the United States. Why? Because most of Russia's nuclear weapons are up there in Murmansk and the Kola Peninsula. So, you know, if push comes to shove, of course, we are part of Article 5, collective defense. One for all, all for one, out of the question. That we wouldn't support the U.S. and I think actually it's very much in the interests of the US as well to have allies and have NATO, because the biggest security threat that we have in Europe, unfortunately, is Russia. And that's what we're trying to contain inside the alliance.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

German Chancellor Mertz has said that this is not a matter for NATO.

[Alexander Stubb]

It's not Article 3, Article 4, or Article 5 of NATO, because that for us is about protecting ourselves in a situation. So what I've always said that NATO is a defense alliance. It's a military alliance. It's not an alliance that attacks. That's the basic idea. When NATO 2.0 was sort of founded after the end of the Cold War, we went a lot into crisis management or peacekeeping. Right. We did that in Kosovo, we did it in Afghanistan, and then there was always a UN mandate to do that. So that's fine. But this is not, you know, NATO per definition. This is very much the US And Israel.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Actually. It's a point that was made by the General. Sir Nick Carter, a former chief of the defense staff here in the uk, talks to the BBC, said that NATO is a defensive alliance. He says it wasn't designed for one of the allies to go on a war of choice and then oblige everyone else to follow. Is it that Donald Trump doesn't understand what NATO is?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, I think what the President of the United States wants right now is support in a complicated situation. I don't think many expected Iran to counterattack the Gulf states, which are, of course, close allies of the United States. But right now, I feel that Iran is obviously fighting for its existence. That's why it's trying to, A, maximize the destruction in the region and B, maximize the destruction for the global economy and the oil price. And this puts, I think, everyone involved in a difficult situation. That's why I think the best thing to do right now, instead of escalating, is to de. Escalate, and then that would perhaps open the Hormuth Straits, which are what. What. What President Trump is looking for.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

You're often described as a Trump whisperer. You seem to be closer to him than lots of leaders. How often do you speak to him? Is he on the phone? Is he texting? Whatsapping voice noting I think my job

[Alexander Stubb]

as President of Finland is to have good relations with leaders around the world. And, of course, to have a relationship with the most powerful leader in the world is useful. Having said that, I don't want to inflate my role at all as any kind of a whisperer. If I can throw out one idea on the war of Ukraine out of 10 that he might hook onto, I'll be very happy. But he makes very much his own decisions.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

You're listening to the interview from the BBC World Service.

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[Megan McCardell]

Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic. And it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday, I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.

[Alexander Stubb]

It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.

[Megan McCardell]

Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Alexander Stubb as president of Finland is one of those world leaders who is interesting because he's managed to secure the thing that so many other world leaders have tried and failed. And that's a rapport with President Donald Trump. Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, of course, is another one. Alexander Stu bonded with Donald Trump on the golf course, but I was interested to know how far that relationship went, how they communicate and his ability to have difficult conversations without cutting off that relationship altogether. So, okay, let's return to my conversation with Alexander Stube. You play golf together, though, don't you?

[Alexander Stubb]

We did, yes.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

And how did you beat him? Were you allowed to beat him?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, he played on the same team.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Oh, okay.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah. One of the few players that shoots under his own age. Quite impressive.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

So you think he's a good player?

[Alexander Stubb]

I do. I, I do.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

I wondered is, do you, did you get see any evidence of this idea that people have to let him win? Were you on the winning team when you played for him?

[Alexander Stubb]

We were on the winning team, but we had a lot of fun. I remember that. I mean, those, for those of you who play golf, I mean, I used to play seriously, but I kind of quit cold turkey after college golf 35 years ago. And you see the personality of a human being kind of on the first hole. You see how they react to bad shots and good shots. We had a very pleasant round.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

And how does Donald Trump react to a bad shot?

[Alexander Stubb]

Very calm. Much calmer than I am. You know what?

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

About a few months ago, I went to the Finnish embassy here in London to experience sauna diplomacy. The sauna that you have in the embassy, is that something that you've tried out with Donald Trump?

[Alexander Stubb]

Not with Donald Trump, but, you know, I've had, like, a foreign policy sauna. We have this feature, Kul Taranta talks at my summer residents, and I invite people to have a chat. But, yeah, sauna is. I mean, it's the only international word that comes out of the Finnish language. So very, very proud of it. You know, we have 2.2 million saunas in Finland for 5.6 million people. That's quite a lot.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Would you invite Donald Trump to join you in one of them?

[Alexander Stubb]

You can invite anyone to a sauna because it's a very soothing place. I believe in taking a sauna and then an ice bath. It kind of clears the mind.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Maybe that's what he needs. Cool heads all around.

[Alexander Stubb]

You never know.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Do you have difficult conversations with President Trump?

[Alexander Stubb]

I would say I do, yeah. I think in any relationship, obviously, we're very different in public than we are in private as human beings. Right. I mean, you as a journalist, behave at home differently than you do in front of the camera, right?

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

That's true.

[Alexander Stubb]

And then also, you build a relationship of trust, and once you reach a certain point of trust, then you can be a little bit tougher on things that you disagree, but you kind of have to pick your battles. I think that's the key. But I feel that I've been able to be quite frank with the president, among others.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Earlier this year, Trump said that NATO sent some troops, but stayed a little back, a little off the front lines in Afghanistan. Of course, two Finnish soldiers were among those who were killed in Afghanistan. Was that one of the difficult conversations you had to have?

[Alexander Stubb]

I think that conversation has been more difficult with the Danes, who had over 40 soldiers dying. Denmark has been a very close ally of the United States over the years, and of course, many of us, we weren't even NATO members, but we had troops in Afghanistan for many years in rotation. Of course, it's good training, but they were certainly in Mar El Sharif. I visited the place myself. Very much in the front lines. I would not have had the courage myself to be there for too long, but our soldiers did.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

And is that something you spoke to President Trump about?

[Alexander Stubb]

We speak about alliance, but I think my value added is to tell the strength of the Finnish military for the alliance. And, you know, I know that even the viewers of BBC don't always look at the intricacies of the Finnish military, but we still have Conscription, so obligatory military service for men and men and then voluntary for women. We have over 1 million men and women who've been trained in the military service. We have over 60 F18s. We just bought 64 F35s. We have long range missiles, air, land and sea. We have the biggest artillery together in Europe, together with Poland. And as I always say, we don't have them because we are worried about Sweden.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

It's because you're worried about Russia and this scale of the border you're talking about. Is that as president of Finland what keeps you up at night?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, I think we're quite actually cool, calm and collected when it comes to it because our whole defence posture has been created in a post World War II World and then in the post Cold War period we kept our military up. So we have the capabilities and you know, I look at our overall comprehensive security. As President, I'm the one who probably has most information about our security of supply, our capacity in cyber, our capacity in space, land, air and sea, our border capacity. And I sleep my nights actually quite, quite calmly. We've always had a good relationship with Russia as well. You know, we are trustworthy. So in that sense, even if we join NATO, I don't think Russia sees us as a target.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

It's not something. I mean, clearly other countries who share borders with Russia aren't concerned about a Russian invasion. Bluntly. Is that something that concerns you in Finland?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, I think no, no, we don't. I mean, we don't see an imminent security threat from Russia, but we do see a long term threat, depending of course on how the war in Ukraine ends. But I think having spoken to many colleagues over the years, I think the bigger worries are not so much of NATO states, because Article 5 is solid, but there are countries who are bordering Russia, say in Central Asia, who are worried about, you know, Russian expansion and imperialism. But what I keep on stressing is that once we are able to settle the war of aggression in Ukraine, we need to bring down the temperature and see how we kind of get to discuss again, because right now we basically don't have diplomatic or political relations with Russia.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

You talk about the ongoing investment in the Finnish military and both in terms of equipment, but also people and conscription, so on. Not every country has done that, including the uk, but others too. You know, cashed in the peace dividend after the end of the Cold War, dialed down on defence spending, moved away from having conscription. Do you think that was a mistake?

[Alexander Stubb]

The UK military obviously has its own strength, its capability in intelligence, its nuclear weapons, its defense posture is different because you're an island, whereas our defense posture is basically the landline with Russia. But what I've seen now is that a lot of countries are increasing their defense expenditure and capabilities. And part of it is obviously President Trump putting pressure on NATO allies, but part of his reality and understanding that the world is a much colder place than what it was after the Cold War.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

One of the things we've seen in recent days, America lifting some oil sanctions on Russia, which will ultimately put money into coffers which will end up on the battlefields in Ukraine.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, that's, again, one of the spillover effects of. Of the war in Iran is that the oil price goes up, and that, of course, means an oil price going up in the US as well. Therefore, a lifting of sanctions, with which I disagree, we actually should put more pressure on the Russian economy and now, of course, a focus more on Iran than on Ukraine. So that's why we keep on working with our American friends and of course, with our Ukrainians to. To try to bring things back on track. Because, as a matter of fact, when it comes to the battlefield, Ukraine is doing much better than it has been in these past four years. It's actually acquiring back more territory than Russia is able to gain. And if you look at the damage on the battlefield in the past three months, it's over 90,000 Russian soldiers dead. They're not even able to recruit, but now they're able to feed their war machine because of the increase in oil price. And I am worried about that.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

But that's as a direct result of a decision taken by the American president, who, if we're picking sides, is supposed to be on the side of Ukraine and not Russia.

[Alexander Stubb]

I think the United States has set out publicly as well as they see themselves very much as mediators between Russia and Ukraine. And of course, for me, as a Finn and as a European who has gone through the same predicament that Ukraine is going through right now, we, as a nation in the Winter War and the War of Continuation, when the Soviet Union attacked us, we have very much picked our side, and that is to try to help Ukraine to defend itself. And, of course, it is a little bit of a miracle that we are where we are in the sense that, you know, President Putin and Russia has failed in all of its strategic aims. It tried to make Ukraine Russian. It's going to become European. It tried to prevent NATO from enlarging. It doubled its border with Finland coming in and Sweden, and it tried to keep European defense expenditure and capabilities down, and we're up to 5% soon. So in that sense, I think, you know, Ukraine's fight is our fight.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

And yet against that backdrop, the US President has given a shot in the arm to the, to the Russian economy, which will end up being used to fund its war in Ukraine. I mean, what's your message been to Donald Trump on that specifically?

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, you know, I haven't had a message on that specifically, but what I kept on saying is that, as a matter of fact, the Russian economy, before the oil price started to go up, wasn't doing well. They had zero growth, they had zero reserves. They had interest rates at 16%, inflation at double digits. They had a budget deficit which went from 83 billion euros to potentially 130 billion this year. Now, that's going to come down. And why do I stress this so much? Because Russia needs money for the war machinery to work. They need to pay the soldiers. They need to pay the families of the dead soldiers. And if we had been in a situation where they can't do that, perhaps that would have been an incentive for, for Russia to end the war.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

But. But the opposite is happening that Donald Trump is given at this crucial moment.

[Alexander Stubb]

As you paint, the opposite is happening. In these past two weeks, we've, we've seen a shift. You know, the idea that the Russian economy is down this year is not looking likely right now, unfortunately, and that has changed the game. But on the battlefield, again, the Ukrainians are doing extremely well.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

But what does that tell us, I suppose, about President Trump's attitude towards Ukraine and to Russia? Many people, they'll look at that and think, well, Donald Trump is siding with the leader of Russia over Ukraine.

[Alexander Stubb]

I think the foreign policy of the current administration is basically based on two pillars that we see in the national security strategy from November 2025. One is MAGA, and that's very ideological. So there's this resentment of global institutions, of international rules, and also of the European Union, as a matter of fact. And in general, this international cooperation, the idea is that let's park that aside. And then the other strand on this national security strategy, which is obviously the strategy of the administration is America first, and that has a pecking order in the strategy. Number one is the Western Hemisphere. Number two is the Indo Pacific, and only number three is Europe. Number four is the Middle east, which is now changing, I guess. And then number five is Africa. And that's the reality that we have to live with with the current administration. So I always say that. And Again, as a pro American, pro transatlanticist, you know, live in a world or do your foreign policy in a world that exists, not world that you wish would exist.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

You're here in London. Clearly a lot of focus on Keir Starmer's relationship with Donald Trump. It had been despite their political and, you know, personality differences, they have been getting on very well. Now in a situation we've got the US President describing Kestar was no Winston Churchill criticizing the UK for not becoming more involved early on. What's your advice to Keir Starmer on how to, how to deal with that relationship?

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, you have to understand that the relationship that many of us have with President Trump does oscillate. You know, you have good days, you have bad days. So don't take everything so personally, I think is my message. I don't give any advice.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

There's clearly a lot of concern in the UK as there is in Finland and across the world, really about the impact on the cost of living, the immediate impact, rising oil prices and the longer term cost of investing in defense as you're talking about, people often ask, you know, when is the cost of living crisis going to end? When are we going to get through all this? Those days over where we didn't have to worry about those things, actually life is going to be harder.

[Alexander Stubb]

Foreign policy or the economy is never an end state. It keeps on oscillating all the time. And right now, you know, we are in a worse place than we were, say 10 years ago. There's no denying that. And we're seeing in this world of disorder an increase in conflicts. And these conflicts then have an impact on oil prices. They might have inflation on interest rates and the rest of it. So we need to figure out whether we have security pressure coming from the east and Russia and a transition from the west with the US Administration. How do we best work together so that we can get over this cost of living crisis?

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

So to return to where we began and the idea of rebalancing the New World Order, is it possible to get to that while you still have Donald Trump in the White House?

[Alexander Stubb]

I think it's possible to work towards that. And the example that I give, I'm still, I'm a realistic optimist, right. So, and I try not to over rationalize the past or history. But there was something called the San Francisco moment right after World War II where they created the United nations and nations came together and agreed on a certain set of rules and norms and charters. Why can't we do that again? In a world where AI is predominant, technological revolution in general, where there are conflicts, and where we're not even talking about the climate crisis. So let's get back to the drawing board and try to solve these things together rather than going our separate ways.

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

Thank you for listening to the interview. You'll find more in depth conversations on the interview where every you get your BBC podcasts, including episodes with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the UN plus many others. Until next time. Bye for now. The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here, and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.

[Megan McCardell]

Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.

[Alexander Stubb]

It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are to. I am a believer in America and

[BBC Interviewer / Matt Chorley]

it's worth fighting for.

[Megan McCardell]

Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.