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Yo. Welcome back to another episode of the Jack Mallory Show. My name is Jack. And you are listening to yet another edition of Mail Bag Monday. Ladies and gentlemen, let's get this bad boy time stamped. I'm talking to you all to Bitcoin. Price of 65, $290. Putting Bitcoin's market cap at 1.31 trillion. All time high. 126, 160. We are now 48.2% off our all time high that we made on October 6, 2025. Two hundred and eighty seven days ago, the last bitcoin block mined since I hit stream was Bitcoin block height, 958, 933. How are you guys doing? Good to see you. Here's the deal with this episode. I got no Dylan. Last week was a really big week for us. You'll know why soon. This week is going to be another really big week for us. So I got no Dylan, which means I got no Q and A. So today will be unfortunately a little bit of a shorter episode. I thought this episode was going to be the longer one, the Q and A one. It's not going to be. So it'll probably be next week. I'm done guessing it'll be when it be. Tis what it is. Everything happens for a reason. So bear with me. Apologize for that. No Dylan. So I got no one writing questions down. I mean, we could try some Q A, interacting with the chat at the very end if we want, but we got no Dylan today. So today will likely be a bit shorter. But we do got some good topics and grind my gear. So without further ado, try to make these intros shorter. Let's get this show on the road. So the title today is AI Is Changing the World. But at what cost? Just want to talk about. Obviously this is a bitcoin show because I'm a bitcoiner. It is the Jack Maller show. So I guess at times we talk about all sorts of random shit, but I'd consider this a bitcoin show when we get down to brass tacks. So what is my interest in AI? I'd say a few things. One, AI is the effort to turn electricity into intelligence. And so I think broadly speaking, I'm a fan of AI and I'm an AI Bull, because I've talked to you guys before. I think that the story of humanity is commercializing energy from the sun. And that's our ability to eat food and turn that into caloric energy. Bitcoin is energy money. I think that AI is energy intelligence and our ability to harness and commercialize energy from the sun and turn it into intelligence that is accessible to all. I think that that is incredibly valuable, incredibly important. I gave a talk in Prague that bitcoin and AI are bringing about a new human renaissance that is both unlocking our ability to save and exchange wealth and to have access and produce intelligence. I think it's a really exciting time. So that's more just. Personally, I'm a fan of energy meets intelligence. For broadly speaking, when it comes to macroeconomics, financial markets and Bitcoin, AI matters because it has become a too big to fail sector. It's responsible, as we'll talk about in a second, for a ton of GDP growth, for a ton of active investment in the West. It is the new hot war, cold war between the east and the west, between China and the United States of America. And it has great, great, great, great impact on the stock market on the Max 7, on where the marginal speculative capital is going. And there's, I've said before, and I'd say just generally true, that bitcoin won't really start to hum and run until the AI bubble. I don't want to say pops and I'll get into, you know, AI bubble. Are you saying that this technology is invaluable? I'll explain that all in a second. But the reason that all of this is relevant is because I do think that the market has had to really digest what this thing is, what proper capital allocation to it is, what Bitcoin is relative to it. Bitcoin's not an AI competitor. Bitcoin is money and AI is intelligence. Those are not the same thing. But I think the market is starting to finally digest. Okay, what is this thing? What's the proper capital allocation? Who are the winners? Who's actually going to get paid back? And now that there's all this excess sloshing fiat sitting around, where should it go? And I think bitcoin will, on the back half of all of that, catch a bid. And so I like to keep a pulse on how the AI story is doing. I have a very particular opinion on how this story will end. And I think it's really starting to heat up. We're really starting to enter the early innings and into the middle of this game. And it's becoming clearer and clearer and clearer to me what's going to happen. So first, before we get started, the feedback from you guys is to keep this part short. So we will. The four questions. Conflict in Iran. It can't be ignored, obviously, 20% of the oil market being taken offline. A hot war that involves two nations that are bombing each other and building weapons. I mean, this is a big deal. It has impacts on inflation, has impacts on human lives. So we cannot ignore it. But we're not going to waste our time chasing around politicians. So the four questions we always ask, is the Strait of Hormu still closed? Is this conflict still ongoing? Are global supply chains still being disrupted? And. And can the global debt that we have accumulated all over the world survive this level of disruption? The answers remain the same. The Strait's still closed, conflict's still ongoing, global supply chains remain disrupted, and global debt cannot survive this. So just checking in on the Strait, we'll keep it short. The Strait of Hormuz is back to pre MOU levels. MOU Memorandum of understanding that was that we agreed to a deal to agree to a deal to agree to a deal to agree to a deal. And you can see on the far right, for those of you looking on YouTube, you can see the little bump that that gave the traffic and the straight of horn moves. And now we're back to pre MOU levels. So just summarizing what is visually represented on the screen for the podcast listeners out there. I mean, we were doing anywhere between 100 to 160 vessels through the Strait a day. Now we're at four as of yesterday. So is the Straight of Hormuz back inoperative? The answer is unequivocally no. Is the conflict still ongoing? This was from the President of the United States, President Donald J. Trump. Earlier today, on July 20, he said, every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over. This directive has been passed on to the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Daniel Cain, and every leader of the military, President Donald James Trump. So I think it is safe to say that this conflict is still ongoing. In fact, the fact that we call it a conflict is arguably misleading. At what point is this just a war? I mean, we've been in war since last week of February. I don't know the difference between a conflict and a war, but whatever it is, it is obviously still ongoing. So I know that we just got a low inflation print. We saw oil starting to come down. Well, oil is back on the rise. Is inflation going to come back? How long is this conflict, slash war, slash whatever it is going to last? We don't know. We don't know. But we're not going to spend too much time on it because chasing around political headlines and whether they agree to agree to agree to agree or not has, as I've said before, it's just a waste of time. It's a waste of time. Don't let politicians spend the scarcest resource you have, which is your time. We are short politicians, long bitcoin on this channel. Okay, so chapter one, the AI story is, is really starting to heat up in my opinion in regards to. I think the market is really starting to chew through what's going on here. What the pros from AI, what the cons from AI are. So I don't, you know, I'd be curious. Your guys feedback is after this episode because it is largely AI dominant which you know, I'll obviously all roads lead to bitcoin. Everything's good for bitcoin, don't forget that. So I'll bring it all the way back to bitcoin but I would love to hear any feedback. If this is interesting to you guys, if you're learning or if there are better AI shows that meet you at the cross intersection of Bitcoin and you'd rather me spend my time elsewhere, let me know. But I got to admit this has been taking up more and more of my research time and I've really been enjoying it. I'm enjoying watching the market realize that companies have to be profitable. Economics matter. The free market reigns supreme. Bitcoin and AI aren't competitive. You shouldn't think of them as equal capital allocations. You know, one is counterparty risk betting on a company taking a lot of risk into can pre profit businesses actually pay you back versus the other is the best savings, excuse me, the best savings technology in human history. So first and foremost I just want to say AI is real. I use it every day. It's materially benefited my life. And like I said, I'm an AI bull. I do think that the story of humanity is commercializing energy from the sun is our ability to harness energy from the big thing in the sky and generate human prosperity and build society with each other. We have energy money now in Bitcoin. We have energy intelligence now with AI our food caloric energy. And so energy and our ability to commercialize it, harness it and make use of it has a direct correlation to human prosperity and the development of any given civilization. Obviously when politicians tell you that you shouldn't be using all this energy and using energy is bad, they're full of shit. A politician's opinion is a politician's position. That probably means they're short energy, but anyway, that's, that's for a separate Jack Mallers episode. The point here is that I'm an AI fan and I don't want the opinion on record to be anything other than that. That is not my debate. My question to AI is whether everyone financing the build out of this new industry is going to make money. Let me say a different way. Let's take bitcoin. Bitcoin had lots of infrastructure built out, exchanges, mining, all sorts of businesses. Has everyone that's been involved in bitcoin made money or has there been at times a misallocation of capital? People that totally misunderstood bitcoin mining, the difficulty adjustment, how a global energy market is going to work, the fact that bitcoin doesn't need marginal energy, it can work with whatever energy is available. There's been tons of people that have got blown out, tons of bitcoiners, quote unquote, not actual, but I guess proclaimed, that are sitting in jail like Sam Bankman, fried Mt. Gox went down. So the point is bitcoin as an innovation, here to stay. Yes. Now, every single person that's ever been in bitcoin, an entrepreneur in bitcoin, has there been misallocation of capital? Have people been marked to zero? Yes. So I think that there needs to be analysis done at. I mean we're seeing this is the greatest infrastructure buildout at least nominally in the history of mankind. Humans have never gathered to spend more capital on any given effort ever in our history. Fiber optic cables, railroads, the Internet, this is the biggest ever. And so the question is, is everyone going to get paid back? Is there going to be misallocation of capital? And the reason again that this is relevant as bitcoiners is because we are trying to educate the world that if you have capital that needs to be saved, okay, not invested, that implies counterparty risk, that implies a roadmap gets executed, that implies profits grow, that implies a payback schedule saved, no counterparty risk, hard money, enforceable scarcity, self sovereignly held on your own. We are on a mission to monetize the world on hard money. And, and when you have an investment wave that people misunderstand into competing with, that it matters to our mission to. People have said time and time again, AI's taking bitcoins thrown, blah blah blah. It's obviously all bullshit. It's obviously all momentary and temporary. But that's why I think it's interesting because it's all starting to fall apart. So first and foremost, you know this show is about. This is Back to basics. You're not going to get a Harvard PhD listening to this show. I don't even have a college degree. So this is about basics by the common man. For the common man. Bring in finance and Bitcoin and some of these broad world topics to the streets. Okay, let's get to brass tacks. None of these AI companies that you know are profitable. I'm going to say that again. None of these companies are profitable. And I've said this before to you guys, to me, profit is a moral obligation before, a financial obligation, because profit really is. If money is value, which I think we all agree it is, well then by producing more money for your company than you spend, you are literally. It is the financial expression of producing more value than you are consuming. It is the financial expression of making the world a better place. It is. If making the world a better place was to be measured and denominated in value creation, then being profitable is the expression of that. And so this would be like a very libertarian, free market, Austrian economics way of thinking. Is producing profit is the goal because it is the way that the market is telling you you're doing good for the world. You are creating value. So, and obviously Keynesian economics and fiat and this mess that I was born into and that we live in today has greatly complicated this idea. You know, you've got these companies that never plan on making profit, that infinitely raise money. When fiat, when money can just be printed out of thin air, well, then you get the master of all misallocations of capital, all mal investment, because money is easy. If money's as easy as snapping my finger, then why do I give a shit about how it's invested, where it's invested? If I lose it, I'll just get bailed out. If I need more, I'll just print more. And so we've lost sight of just how really simple society should be governed. You need to make money. It's a form of Darwinism almost. If you're a business that is uneconomical, you should fail. Because we want the human energy and human resources and human capital to be focused on places that are productive. We don't want everybody wasting their time building something that's never going to be productive, valuable, and help us. Why would we want that? As sad as it is? Shut your business down. Do something better with your life, brother. Okay, so the first thing for you, you guys understand, none of these companies make money. Supposedly anthropic claims they can be profitable by 2030 open AI has no path to profitability. Zero. I'll get to that in a second. X AI Elon's thing, which is now rolled into SpaceX, is up. They don't make money either. So the first thing to understand which is critically important is that none of these companies can finance themselves. Say that one more time. If you can't produce a profit, you are wholly reliant on somebody else to pay your bills, somebody else to finance the conviction that you have in the future. So these companies are all incredibly indebted to build out. What I just told you guys is the greatest infrastructure build out in the history, history of humanity. But they don't produce any profits. So you now have borrowers. So when I say they're indebted, they're borrowing money, you have people borrowing money that can't pay off their own debt. They can only refinance their debt. Someone else has to keep financing them, they have to keep borrowing and refinancing just to sustain the business or else the whole thing goes kapoof. And by the way, this is actually exactly why these companies keep raising private up rounds is because as long as the equity keeps being revalued at a higher price, you can refinance your whole capital stack. But I dare these businesses to actually go public so that the public markets, which are ruthless, can tell you the truth and mark your equity down. And then the whole thing blows up because you can't actually pay with profit. But we'll get there later. Another reminder for you guys. So for one, none of these businesses produce profits. Critically important to remember that and just why profits are important. If you don't have profits, then you can't finance yourself. You don't get to decide what payroll is, what your salary is, how much debt. It's up to someone else. At the end of the day, I encourage every entrepreneur to immediately try and produce more than you consume. I encourage every individual, every family. You guys listen to this show. Earn more than you spend. Find ways in your life to consume less. Find ways in your life to save more. That is, it's a very honorable thing that, how do I say it? Honors your dignity as a person, as a man, as a woman, by saying my future is valuable. I'm going to consume less. I'm going to say, you know what? I don't need the super Size Me meal or the Uber Black or to fly private this time I'm going to delay gratification, consume less. Which prioritizes my future, lowers my time preference. Okay, now the second lesson that you guys need to understand, brass tacks, very simple, is that AI is not a software business. AI, unfortunately, the markets are just now starting to understand this. We've been talking about on the show, a lot of the things we're going over today, we've been talking about on the show for months. So if you listen to the show, you got some serious alpha. But AI businesses are not like Internet companies because Internet companies were fascinating business models because you had two core expenses. One, you got to plug your servers in somewhere and two, you got to pay your engineers, but that's it. And you can have a fixed amount of engineers and the software scales infinitely. Just to get to, you know, going from a million users to a billion users doesn't require the same amount of scale when it comes to engineers. We've seen now with, with AI and all of the cloud servicing and engineering, we've seen A Group of 10 engineers Scale software to a billion people because of things like the iPhone, because of the cloud. Okay? Now AI is categorically not that business. Those businesses were the greatest businesses of all time. Meta, Microsoft, I mean you have fixed expenses relatively and growing amounts of pure cash flow. These are insanely high margin businesses. You're selling products to billions of people and you're employing thousands of people. You're making tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars a year of pure, pure, pure cash. Okay? AI businesses are not that because they require physical build out. They're the opposite of low cost, high margin. They are extremely high cost because of the things on the screen. You got to build out data centers, you need GPUs, you need chips, you need electricity, you need cooling, you need power infrastructure. So instead of low cost, high margin, they are high cost and so far negative margin. These companies don't make any money. They're uneconomical so far. Now obviously the whatever Silicon Valley guy, if he were arguing with me and debating me at a conference, he would say, well, Amazon was this at one point too. Like eventually though, Amazon was able to grow out of that and became one of the most profitable companies ever. It's a staple in society. That's all true. Fine, fair. But the point is that AI right now is priced as a software business as if they get a multiple. Really, AI is like a real estate business or a physical infrastructure business that, you know, has an app on the App Store as well. But it, there was a very viral blog post that went around. Maybe, you know, I can point you guys to it towards the end of the Episode. It's a really long read, but it's very good. Which says basically the AI bubble is much closer to the 2008 housing crisis than, than the dot com era. The dot com era was just everyone was way too exuberant and excited about these technology equities and gave them far too much multiples, were way too optimistic about the future and the cash they'd be able to produce and gave them the benefit of the doubt that they'd have easy revenue models and easy monetization streams that they'd be able to implement and just got way too exuberant and the equity just had to be marked down. The AI stuff is very different because none of these businesses produce profit and they're building physical literal infrastructure. Like they're building physical data centers taking over land, like needing to invest in. These are. They're spending trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. As an industry. That money is all borrowed, uncollateralized. That's not like buying an equity and having it get marked down and you're like well shit, you know, I'm still bullish. Amazon, I'm going to hodl. I'm going to keep. No, no, no, you're borrowing. This is uncollateralized. This is like what happened in the housing market. This is a physical industry. Okay? So I created this meme. AI has always been a cost intensive business. So the meme is AI is more of a credit driven real estate cycle than a technology cycle. And the guy pointing the gun. It always has been. It always has been guys. It always has been. You're starting to see the MAG7 multiples compress because they're going from software businesses to physical high cost businesses. These, these mag7 hyperscaler businesses are losing profitability. They're now piling on debt, which is leverage. So you've gone from pure cash flow, stock buybacks to highly levered and unprofitable. The market is, at some point the market is going to realize what the fuck am I paying a multiple for? Why would I own that instead of something else? And as we'll get to that, something else at the margin is going to inevitably be Bitcoin. Bitcoin is really like one giant long winded story of fixing capital misallocation throughout the world. Oh, you meant to save money for your future, not to take a highly levered physical infrastructure. AI bet. Oh shoot. You were meant to invest in bitcoin, not in, you know, OpenAI Series E2. Anyway, so what has happened recently which has gotten Me really excited. And listen, I'm cheering for everyone. I, I hope, I hope no one's lives gets ruined or whatever. But the reality is, like, a lot of this money should be focused on bitcoin and saved in bitcoin. And there's a lot of misallocation in capital and AI. A lot of people have been really slow to understand. It's just so hypey, so frothy. So what happened recently is competition changes everything. You've had these businesses that go, they were worth $10 billion two years ago, now they're worth a trillion dollars. You're going to attract global competition, as you should. Competition breeds innovation. We want the free market to govern how resources are allocated, where our focus should be, where to optimize, where to be more efficient. So what has happened? Chinese models as guys for the loyal listeners. You guys got to have my back here. You got to have my back here. Because I've been talking about how these Chinese models are coming for the American model's ass. Because China, China graduates more engineers per year than the US has in some. We know that they have been better at building things than us, especially the physical hardware side. But it's also unclear to me if the software side is also an issue as well. And I've been saying time and time again, don't count out China. Don't count out China. Don't count out China. The story of China over the decades competing against the US is they're relatively on par as far as quality, but the pricing is a fraction, is a fraction of. And it was just as soon as last episode we went over this. So some of these Chinese models are now approaching frontier model quality, like the best you can get from Claude, the best you can get from OpenAI. Now, going back to the first slide, is this a bad thing for you? And I know, is this a bad thing for Strike? No. Is this a bad thing for bitcoin? Absolutely not. This is great. We're getting cheaper, better, higher quality intelligence. The marginal cost of intelligence is driving itself and grinding itself to zero. Not to mention, Chinese models are open source. It's great. So the question is, who loses? Who loses because of this? Well, those that invested poorly. Imagine this. Let's just say I'm using round numbers. Someone invests in an OpenAI investment, assuming that the cost of the marginal cost of AI is going to be a thousand bucks a user, and China comes out with a model that's open source and is a penny a user, well, you know who loses? Well, the guy that was assuming he was going to get paid back on that thousand dollars per user model. Is that a bad thing? No, investments go bad all the time. And it's, you know, this is how humans get better. You learn from it. What went wrong? What did I miss? Read. Oh, I didn't understand the Chinese market that well. I didn't understand how power source technology was. These are really critically important things. It's not a bad thing. But what I'm telling you guys is we have a national security in AI. This is national strategic imperative. We've spent trillions and trillions. Mind you, AI has attracted more capital than the initial Covid print. Like the order of magnitude of investment is extreme. So if you guys think that credit markets aren't going to seize up that like said another way, if all of a sudden all these people that have lent all this money and invested all this money aren't going to get paid back, they're going to have to start selling their Treasuries to make rent, they're going to have to start selling their bitcoin, they're going to have to start selling their equities. It's going to be a serious issue. Now the question and what we all assume is that the government will step in and make everything okay. But this is what happened since I last talked to you guys. So a Chinese model has climbed the ranks. Kimi K3, which is a new model. I'll just read the tweet. Big news Kimmy K3 by Kimmy Moonshot is now the number one front end code arena with 1679 points surpassing Claude's Fable 5. That's a 17 place jump from Kimik 2.6 in front end. Kimik 3 is number one in six of the seven domains. Brand and marketing, reference based design, data and analytics, consumer product simulations and content creation tools. Landing number two and only gaming behind Fable 5. And by the way, it's a fraction of the cost. A fraction of the cost. So what did we talk about last. Last episode? What did we expect? For one, I called it. I hate to, I hate to be the guy that says I told you so, but I told you so. So what else did we say last week? We said, well if you're a business, if you're strike. If you're any business, do you want to use the one that cost 10 times more or 10 times less? Well it's obvious I want to use the one ten times less. And by the way, I'll also use the open source one because I can see are there Any backdoors? What are you doing with my data? So open source. And it costs 10 times less. I mean, you got to be kidding me. So what did we see this week? Just in, US companies reportedly use Chinese AI models more than domestic alternatives. No shit. Why would I? It's just a no brainer. That's the free market at work. So then a headline that followed that today just in, Trump officials are reportedly weighing blocking US access to top Chinese AI models. Okay, well we talked about this last week as well. If you're the government, what are you going to do about it? What are you going to do about it? And this goes, guys, this goes all the way back. You know, this will be long, long winded and repetitive, but I gotta do it. This is because the dollar's the global reserve currency. And I sound like a religious bitcoiner, but bear with me for a second. The reason that's the case is when you are the world reserve currency, your job is to export the currency. You have to structurally run deficits. You can't run a surplus because how's the world gonna get the dollars in the first place? You have to end on net owing dollars. You cannot on net be owed Chinese Yuan or Brazilian real. You have to on net owe dollars. So you're constantly exporting the dollar, which means you're a net importer of stuff. And so over time, globalization is everyone else around the world produces stuff that Americans consume. And what do Americans export? Financialization, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, the dollar. Futures contracts, paper contracts, exchanges. Right. So all of this is because China spent decades building cheap stuff. They're the world's factory. And this is a policy decision. If you want to start to reverse this, very simple. Don't be the world reserve currency. Let the dollar be worth whatever it needs to be worth. It is art because of that world reserve currency status, because it has demand that it otherwise wouldn't if it wasn't the world reserve currency. So if you just remove that from it and you remove all of the artificial demand that comes with that, then the dollar will get significantly weaker, which, that's another way of saying gold. Bitcoin will go up significantly, but then the dollar will be so cheap that it will be affordable to hire people for labor, to produce iPhones here, to produce chips here, to produce whatever you need here in America. But this is all a matter of a policy decision. To be the world reserve currency, to want to own the money printer, to want to utilize the Federal Reserve, to want to bail people out and weaponize money it's all, it all comes down to that choice, point blank. And so how did I know that Chinese AI models were going to show up one day and start kicking our ass? Guys, I ain't like, it's not rocket science. It's all a function of the, of trying to monopolize money. Very simple. It's exactly what happened to the US with blue collar work. Remember when blue collar workers were like, yeah, yeah, Chinese version's cheaper, but it's not, you know, it's not us. It's not the quality of America. It's a shittier version. China's versions are shittier. Sure, if you want cheap, shitty Chinese version. And then over time it was like, oh, is, Is the China version that shitty? It kind of is the same quality. It's a fraction of the cost. Oh, they're also able to build, produce, and scale it far wider and further. And then before you know it, you know, blue collar work has been eviscerated in the United States and China's the world's factory. It's the same thing is happening. What am I seeing on Twitter? Well, I don't, I'm not going to use the Chinese version. I'm American. No, hey, numbnuts, it's not about that. Like, don't politicize everything. It's about, it's an open source AI model that's a tenth of the cost at best. If you're American, it might be a hundredth of the cost. You'd have to be an idiot. You're just sacrificing money. You say, okay, but you know, the China version's not, It's, I mean, it might be cheaper, but it's no open AI. No, it is though. It is. And by the way, people are saying, oh yeah, well, that's because China is, is stealing open. It's, it's downloading ChatGPT and testing it out and then able to kind of reverse engineer. Okay, who gives a fuck? Guess what? I don't give a fuck. I just want the cheapest intelligence I have access to. I don't care. You know, who cares are the people that invested trillions of dollars, assuming ChatGPT had some moat that was defensible and is going to be worth $10 trillion as a company. Yeah, I feel bad for those people. Those people should have stayed humble and stacked sats. They're not going to get their money back, are they? But that's, that's, as the world goes, that's how it works. You invested money into something that didn't work. Sorry. You should have bought Bitcoin. If people want to save money into their future without counterparty risk and without taking on risk, that's what Bitcoin is for. Stop comparing these two. Bitcoin is not going to change. It's not. The consensus rules aren't going to change. You're not going to all of a sudden wake up and there's now 42 million bitcoin. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. Now if you want to take risk, that's fine. You could lose it. Pretty simple. So now from David Sachs, basically admitting to everything that I've been saying, I'll read his tweet verbatim. This is concerning. For the first time, a Chinese model, Kimmy K3, has taken the number one on front end code arena and is scoring at or near the frontier on other benchmarks. Meanwhile, America is tying itself in knots. Politicians and bureaucrats are banning new data centers, piling on state regulations and pushing for new federal agencies to pre approve frontier models. This is how you lose the AI race. The rest of the world won't play by our rules if we bog ourselves down. Permissionless innovation is how America won the Internet and became the technological envy of the world. We can do it again with AI while addressing risks in a targeted way or we'll watch our lead evaporate. So I move on. What is David talking about? Well, what state do you guys think was the first to start banning AI data centers? Ding ding ding ding ding. New York. Of course it was New York, which will be part of my Grind my Gears section. This from cnbc. New York becomes the first US State to impose AI data center ban. The key points highlighting the article are as such New York State Governor Kathy I don't know how to pronounce your last name on Tuesday signed an executive order barring the construction of new hyperscaler data centers using 50 megawatts or more of power for up to one year. It is the first statewide data center ban in the U.S. though similar measures, also referred to as moratoriums, are being considered by other states. Public polling has shown significant increase in opposition opposition to data center construction as voters face soaring electricity bills and fear the jobs impact of AI. And this is from Sophie Cunningham, which is a WNBA player in the United States. She is Caitlin Clark's teammate. I don't know, I mean I've got a ton of non American listeners. So you know, I have a tough time having you guys understand who like Lebron James and Michael Jordan are. There's no way you're going to know who Sophie Cunningham is, but she's a US women's basketball player and she tweeted out, so how do we save our farmland and stop all these dumb data center buildouts? And here's the other problem with the great west is government has gotten big and people are elected to print money and give you free. What do I mean by that? Let me go to the, let me go to this slide. What we're looking at here is GDP is highly dependent on AI spending. So AI spending is now 8% of all GDP and it's contributing to over 25% of GDP's growth. On the right, this from the Economist, the visuals titled the AI crutch. US private non residential fixed investment as a percentage change of previous quarter annualized non AI spending is in the gutter. It's now below zero. AI related is hovering around 20%. And so it's like which way Western man? Okay, fine, AI is causing your electricity bill to go up and AI is going to take your jobs. Okay, well then we go into a deep recession and the economy collapses. And this is the problem with modern society and government getting too big is because you have people that are going to run as prominent politicians that are going to, I mean their, their plan is to listen to what you're sensitive and emotional about. Say they can defy the laws of physics for you. Of course they can't. And it's going to result in a bunch of printed money, it's going to result in inflation and the cycle continues. Society thinks that all we need is the right political leader. That all of the world's problems are solely because we don't have the right person. Have you guys lost your fucking mind? Are you that stupid? There is no human being that can sit as whatever political in whatever political position and fix every problem. It's far more systemic than that. You have to viewing these politicians as anything other than virtue signaling nonsense that just perpetuates and propagates all of the issues even further by making promises that they cannot follow through on. Ridiculous. So yeah, I mean, what is America going to do? Here we are where China is building cheaper on par versions as America and what issue does America, how is America going to compete with that? So Trump's initial reaction was he was going to ban us from using the Chinese models. Okay, that sounds like a terrible idea. I mean that is literally saying the United States is no longer a free market. What's, you know, what is the capital controls but for AI intelligence controls. That sounds Like a very bad idea. But we have this issue where there's far too many politicians, far too much regulation, the government's far too big, nobody can build anything, nobody can. I mean, people are trying to compete in the free market and win the AI race. And you have athletes and politicians in New York banning you from doing so. So of course we're going to lose the AI. I mean, what are we doing? So, like, what are crazy ways that the US can compete with China whilst trying to, you know, figure itself out through Congress and state regulations and all this stuff? Well, if, for example, Trump just subsidized OpenAI tokens, so he said, hey, OpenAI tokens are basically on the house. You can use chat GBT for free. Boom, problem solved. American AI is just as cheap as Chinese AI. But again, that's a bailout. That's money printing. And if I go back to this article I've been referencing the last few weeks, OpenAI reportedly pitches granting US government a 5% stake in the company. And then, by the way, after that, this I think is from Wall Street Journal. OpenAI leans towards waiting until next year for its IPO. This is critically important signpost here because the reason OpenAI would not go public. Listen, if you're a great business and you make money and you want to continue to finance your build out, you should go public. If you're not, then you don't. So it's very simple. They aren't going public because it's a bad idea for them. The other thing is when you're a business that's building out physical, physical projects, you're borrowing money, owing hundreds of billions of dollars and you aren't even profitable on your own. Not only are you not profitable against your expenses, but there's even, there's, there's step one is just like earning more than you spend as a business, step two is earning enough to pay off all the debt you've accumulated. So not only are they not even remotely close, like in the same universe as being able to pay off all the debt they've accumulated, they don't even make more money than payroll. The problem with going public is in order to continue to perpetuate this bubble, you have to keep getting a markup on your equity because they're refinancing all their debt with their equity. So OpenAI was worth 80 billion, then 150 billion, then 300 billion and 500 billion and 800 billion. That number has to keep going up because as soon as someone says, okay, now you're Worth a trillion. Then they get to refinance all of their debt. My spidey senses are that they don't want to IPO because they don't want the public markets to tell them what they're worth. Because if they IPO at 800 billion, like I bet they saw what happened to SpaceX and they said that this is way too scary because SpaceX is tra. I mean SpaceX has lost a trillion dollars of market cap already and if that happened to open AI, they would not be able to survive because you would not be able to refinance and kick the can on all of this indebtedness. None of these businesses make any money. So yeah. Is AI here to stay? Yes. Is all of this good for you and I, by the way? Yeah, hell yeah. Give me the cheapest form of intelligence. Like I get access to open source bitcoin and open source intelligence. I mean I'm living well over here, I'm living great. But you know, there's trillions and trillions of dollars of capital misallocation that, that is going to need to be handled. Either all of it's going to be allowed to fail and that's going to be highly recessionary. I mean people are going to blow up. Stock market's going to get sold off tremendously, assets are going to get sold off tremendously. Right. Or I mean just the, just the like political dogma and how big government has gotten and how, how big government has interfered in all of our lives. What do you mean? You can tell me what, what I get to build business wise in my state. So, so what is the US going to do about that? Just lose the air race? It's an option. We could just say, fog it, whatever, China wins, that's fine. Now the Trump administration has said that that is not an option. So what are you going to do? Go to war with the state of New York? Start to subsidize OpenAI other ways? But you guys see why this is all of a sudden fascinating. The whole AI thing is starting to unwind a little bit because for the longest time it was like all you had to do was throw money at AI and you were a genius and everyone was going to get a return on investment and it's like, yeah, but none of these companies are profitable, so how is anyone going to get paid back? And it's crazy because who am I? I'm not the smartest guy in the room. Why, why does it take me to ask kindergarten level questions? Guys, no one's making money so who, how are you going to get paid back? And this slide I wanted to show you guys, this is the credit spreads for the hyperscalers. So the credit spreads is another way of saying, okay, these companies are now all borrowing money. Now what? How do I simplify this? What rates are they get getting money at? Because if the market is basically, if the rates they're getting market at money at is rising, that means higher credit spreads, widening credit spreads. That means that the market is not really confident in their ability to get paid back. They need to be compensated more. It's not like risk free. Like, oh yeah, all these hyperscalers are good for it. They'll get me back because it's super obvious how they're going to produce a bunch of profits and make me whole. And I'll tell you guys this, it's going to take one of these companies like a Facebook or a Microsoft to come out and say, maybe all this spend isn't a great idea. Maybe we shouldn't just be like degenerately plowing our profits and taking on debt. We might have gone over our skis. We might have gone from incredibly profitable cash flow king to a levered, highly indebted AI and now we didn't realize China is as good as they were. First of all, I don't know how people got blindsided by that. Again, who am I to be calling this before everybody else? Bizarre? Whatever. I don't know. Bitcoiners have a way of, I don't know, our worldview is a superpower. I don't know what it is. Bitcoiners also called Covid first. I don't know. Weird. Anyway, yeah, so I mean these credit spreads widening are telling me that the market is starting to figure out everything I'm saying. They're starting to call bullshit and like, hold on a second, how is everyone going to get paid back? And the reason, again, guys, this is important is when you got trillions and trillions of dollars that are like, well, hold on a second, maybe our money isn't best invested in all of this stuff. There might be better, safer ways for us to preserve capital. Where does it go? And I think bitcoin's going to catch an enormous, enormous bid because there's been so much misallocation of capital into this build out. And I mean again, you got to divorce the two. Does that mean AI is a bubble and it's all a fad and we're all going to have to uninstall ChatGPT? That's not what I'm saying, it's not what I'm saying at all. AI is here to stay, but there's been trillions of dollars that have been misallocated and either need to be bailed out, smoothed over. The US either needs to tip their king and resign the AI race or they need to start subsidizing it and financing it. And doesn't surprise me that the Trump administration's embedded OpenAI is the weakest link, by the way. It's the weakest link. It's the furthest thing from profitability. It's got the most debt, it's got the most promises. And, and, and that's the other thing is the, these, these pools of money are so intertwined that it takes one of these guys to blow up to blow the whole thing up. So it's getting really interesting. It's, it's still far too early. I'm not saying that this new Chinese model is blowing everything up and everyone's going. All I'm saying is I spent months saying the same about AI and a lot of people are like, you're nuts, dude. What do you, you think China is going to be able to compete with Silicon Valley? Like, yeah, dude, I am like, call me crazy, but you cannot just print dollars for decades and do all and then expect to be competitive with the people that have been productive for the world. I'm telling you, it's gonna be a wake up call for us. So I do think the markets in the world is starting to warm up to this idea of like, and I'll tell you what, what about all the foreign capital that's invested in the US stock market just trying to get AI exposure and they realize, hold on, maybe we're overweight on this whole AI trade because like, yeah, it's a good technology trend, but who's going to be the winner? And how are we all going to get paid back? They start pulling money out of the US stock market and stocks start to slip a little bit. The NASDAQ has been incredibly weak recently. I'm just telling you guys is not, the world's not going to work like this giant, like, oh, this is a 2008 financial crisis. We're going to wake up. Lehman Brothers is down. It's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is Bitcoin. Just when everyone's counting out Bitcoin, why would you buy Bitcoin when you can invest in AI? What is like, that question within itself is the most moronic, stupid, dumb, like, you need to go back to kindergarten. All I'm doing is asking very basic questions like, hold on. Why is this. Why is a physical almost like a real estate business, the way that they are borrowing money to build out Physical, like real estate, like land sites, chips. Why is a real estate business trading like a software business? Why is a business that's never, ever produced a profit and is it remotely close to producing profit? Why is everyone assuming that they're going to pay everybody back with what money? How are those groundbreaking questions? It's fascinating that bitcoin has brought about just like very simple common sense logic to the world. It's crazy. Oh, you're a business. Be profitable. Super simple. Crazy, crazy. So we'll see. I continue to believe that this is immensely bullish for bitcoin because this, to me, just, it reminds me of different parts of history. I mean, look up how the railroads were built. Look at how fiber optic was laid. Look at how the dot com infrastructure was built. The point is, all of this stuff was successful. We still have railroads. We still use the fiber optic infrastructure. We obviously still have the Internet. So all the technology was successful. But many, many, many, many investors lost money. And this goes back to the point I was making earlier. I don't consider myself an investor. I own very specific things like equity in my businesses, which I don't necessarily consider an investment. That's just I'm owning the future of my work. I'm owning, like, if I have a claim on the productivity and value that I produce for society. And then outside of that, I own bitcoin and that's it. I don't want to, like, listen, there are great investors out there and investing like, is valuable to society. I'm not saying no one should be an investor, but it's not like, for me. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Like, I need to get to know the leadership team and understand the products and dig into the filings and say, okay, well, you know, they. Their. Their profit could grow to this by the year 2030. Yo, hear me on this. That. What are we doing? No, no, no, no, no, no. Earn more than I spend. Save it in bitcoin. Enjoy life. That's what I do. You got me fucked up. I'm spending my football Sundays trying to understand what cash flow for a business will be in the year 2035. And by the way, everybody thinks that that's what all these investors are doing. They're like, yeah. And that's why my hedge fund's returning 8% CAGR. It's like, no, dude, your stock portfolio is up because they keep printing money. Your stock portfolio, measured in gold or in bitcoin, is down. So you don't actually know what their cash flow will be in the year 2035. You're just justifying this profession. You're just. We're all benefitters of the money printer as long as you can own assets. But you're not outperforming bitcoin. That's the other funny thing about this stuff is all I do is try and do valuable shit for other people, ensure that I'm consuming less than I'm earning and I save it in bitcoin and somehow I'm the best performing hedge fund in this fucking world. How is that possible? Over the last 14 years, nobody's out earned my hedge fund, which has just been staying humble and stacking stats. Keep it simple, guys. Keep it simple. So the end of my AI section. Can AI change the world? While becoming one of the largest episodes of capital misallocation in human history, I keep a close eye on this. And again, bitcoin's an exit door. Things like bitcoin gold are everyone runs towards the exits. And so I think it's all. Everything's bullish for bitcoin because now bitcoin will. There'll be so much bitcoin education of like, wait a second, AI equities and bitcoin weren't competing this whole time? No, of course not. On what planet were they competitive? One is money with an enforceable fixed supply. And the other. I tried to tell you guys. You're taking risk on Sam Altman. Like, at what point was that not implied and understood? Have you lost your fucking mind? The guy has no plans of producing a profit. Nobody knows his backstory. He's launching worldcoin that's scanning your retina. They're talking about how open source is bad. The lead strategist of OpenAI said China is communist for having open source AI. What? You're taking counterparty risk with these guys? Sorry, you should have just bought bitcoin. And I think over time, the world will learn that. And they'll have to be money printing, they'll have to be bailouts, they'll have to be yield curve control. And I think all of the people gloating and showboating that they were AI equity investors and they're not buying bitcoin. We'll see who's on the right side of history on that one. Good luck getting paid back by people that don't make any money. Again, it's a kindergarten level of understanding here. And don't get me wrong, there are people that have made money in all the AI investing, but you make money by buying low and selling high. So you're a perpetual bag seller. All these junkies, all these VCs and these bag selling junkies, they're itching themselves like they buy a bag. When's the next up round? When's the next up round? I needed to mark up my investment and tell my LPs in there itching themselves like, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. Are you providing liquidity? Can I get some secondary? Hey, hey, hey. It's like these bag junkies. So it's a game of hot potato. It's who can sell the last bag, who's caught holding the bag. Again, you guys want to play that game? You could go do whatever the you want. I. But for me, I'm not playing. I don't want to play that game. What type of sane human being wants to play? Heroin addict, vc, bad junkie, hot potato. I want to watch football, watch the World Cup. I want to get married. I just officiated my buddy's wedding over the weekend. Like, I don't want to be stressed out. Like, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. OpenAI turned off. Remember when OpenAI turned off the secondary markets guys? Why do you think they did that? They don't want the market actually valuing their company. They want their valuation to come from SoftBank or from all of their buddies so that they can refinance their debt. It's. It's a very carefully crafted game of sell the next bag to the junkie. Stay humble and stack stats, man. I'm trying to tell you. All right, let me get through chapter two. Just checking on the markets. Don't want to do an episode without it. The biggest headline from last week is this Philly Fed Manufacturing index. So here's a quick TLDR on this because I don't want this episode to drag too much. This thing Never prints above 40. So as you can see, and I'll voiceover for everybody that is listening through the podcast waves. The tweet reads, july Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index is up to plus 41.4 versus the plus 12 and a half estimate and 10.3 prior. Highest headline reading since November 2021. We all knew back then what that was. That was the top tick of the bitcoin market, with new orders surging to plus 37 shipments up to plus 33.7 in employment up to plus 10. So the point is this thing's never above 40. Last time was during that peak Covid bonanza. And usually when this thing is at these levels, the Fed has to hike rates. And so this chart was posted by Luke. This is the US 10 year yield charted over this Philly Fed manufacturing index. And when this thing goes up, so do yields. Because it's presumably highly, highly, highly inflationary. Well, the indicator is assuming lots and lots and lots of inflation, lots of growth, lots of hot, hot, hot. And the Fed has to cool it down and raise rates. And mind you, that's what Jerome Powell did. November 2021, this thing printed above 40, we got the fastest rate hike that we've ever seen. And that was during times of extremely hot inflation prints, right? And so what did the markets look like today? Number go up yield addition, 10 year yield up, 30 year yield up, 2 year yield up. And this is all on the back of what was a miracle, inflation slowing print in June, remember the last episode was like inflation is down all of a sudden. Which I told you guys, Wash is not going to hike rates over my dead body. You got to be fucking kidding me. And the point, it remains the same. People say, oh but Jack, what about the 1970s? Or what about no, guys, guys, guys, guys. There's one thing that matters. The debt levels. The debt levels matter. That's not just like a random thing that you can decide to ignore if you want. When you're that indebted. You cannot raise the interest expense on that debt level. The 10 year cannot. Look at the 10 year at 4.6. You cannot have it that way. Because by the way, guess who else this impacts besides the United States? People that want a mortgage, AI, hyperscalers that want to borrow trillions of dollars to go build out data centers only to get their ass kicked by China. That impacts everybody that wants to borrow money and build and live have a credit card. So the fact that we got a plus 40 print on the manufacturing index from the Philly Fed and yields continue to go up even after a slow inflation print because you assume, oh, slow inflation print yields are going to come back down. The market's going to realize, you know, we're not in this, you know, hyperinflationary time. No yields don't give a fuck. The gig is up. In my opinion, the gig is up. If they want to raise rates, they can, of course they can do whatever they want. But that will, that will cause a debt spiral and send us into austerity level of depression, recession. They are going to have to do. Do what? What are they going to have to do? Well, yield curve control. Like what, what have I tried to explain to you guys before? You can have the Fed print money out of thin air to buy the 10 year, which drives yields down. But that's, I mean you're literally printing money to subsidize the government. That's, I mean that's the end game of Fiat. It's like, well then what are we doing here? Why would anyone hold die? Like you'll, you'll start to see, you know, not overnight, but you'll start to see a repricing of things like gold, a repricing of things like Bitcoin, of like why am I even materially interested in this dollar thing anymore? So we're getting to that point where the Fed and the US treasury are going to have to start choosing the bond market over everything else. But I mean I thought this was awesome. Cool. Philadelphia Fed printed 41.4. Never gets this high. Okay, surely it's time to hike rates, right? Yeah. Good luck. $40 trillion in debt. Good luck. Good luck. I call bullshit. And this could be what bitcoin is smelling. Why is Bitcoin at 65K? I don't know. Could it be that all of the AI capital is starting to realize no one's getting paid back and China is a legitimate competitor that no one factored in? If China's going to be open sourcing all this, how's anyone going to get paid back? Whoops. And that also the Fed is caught in a pickle and is going to have to address all the, all the yields that continue to rise. Now is it going to be deliberate yield curve control or are they going to do a round slide out way they're going to launch the ABCDEFG program or whatever, all these acronyms, I don't know. And by the way, could bitcoin obviously go down? Listen, if the stock market sells off 20%, if we do get some institution that goes under because of a private credit crisis or something like that, you know, Bitcoin could easily wick down in 50s, 40s, whatever, right? I'm not calling bonds, but what bitcoin is probably, I told you guys, Bitcoin will lead you down because it's the only free market. It's telling you the truth. It was the first down. Bitcoin was feeling the pain that everyone else is starting to feel now in February. Tells you the truth. First mover, actual smoke alarm indicator. And I can't tell yet, so don't hold me to it. But we'll keep checking on bitcoin. I mean, it's healthily grinding its way higher amidst all of the problems that AI and equities and the Fed is starting to run into. It's really interesting. It really, really is. It really, really is. Okay, grab my gears. Try and make this one quick. It's kind of related to earlier, but I saw this from New York. The mayor, Madame, he hosted a. I forget what it was called, like a housing. A housing speech or something. But basically, I mean, this headline to me says it all. Madani plan would force landlords to pay for credit checks. As activists rails that eviction is violence. And on the back half of what happened in Illinois where there was a proposal to just say, oh, you have bitcoin in cold storage. Yeah, we're just going to start taking that shit. And now evicting someone from your property that isn't paying rent is violence. I mean, guys, property rights in America is starting to be undermined is maybe the polite way of saying it, but just threatened. Why would I own real estate in New York? It's violent for me to say, hey, you gotta leave if you're not paying rent and you're gonna start burdening me with cost. To say, is this person actually going to pay me or are they going to run to the government and say, fuck me and fuck my property rights? It's just bizarre. It's bizarre. It's really, really concerning. It's really concerning. And I think we're going to continue to see. I mean, I know the UK is losing millionaires like no one's business. I know Chicago is, I know New York is. I know California is. I think Texas, I mean, Texas, Texas is going to be running like a $50 billion surplus as a state. I know Miami real estate is like the best performing real estate in the world. It's really concerning if we don't have property rights was foundational in the foundings of America. This is. It's terrifying. It's bizarre. I can't wrap my head around how anyone can reasonably say that evicting someone for not paying rent is violent. And the reason I wanted to put it in this show as grabbed my gears is this is another bull case for bitcoin. Because at the margins, are you going to buy real estate as an investment or as a form of savings or buy bitcoin? Because I tell you what, Mondani can't do shit about my SATs and cold storage. He could go fuck himself. The problem is Real estate, you're a sitting duck. They're going to raise real estate taxes. They're going to just slowly take that shit from you. You're going to provide housing for people and if those people don't pay you, tough shit. Deal with it. What? Why would anybody buy real estate? So, guys, it is very concerning California, Illinois, New York, the undermining of property rights, the attack on wealthy people is bizarre. Or property owners. Like, if you own property, you're an asshole. If you produce profit, you're an asshole. It's really bizarre. I just, I don't know, like, to be honest with you. And I might be preaching just at a wall here because all my listeners probably agree with me. Maybe some don't. I don't. I don't know. Well, I'll. Sure, we'll learn. She'll check the comment section. And if it's angry in a riot that, you know, rent, rent needs to be subsidized and free. If you own property, it's your job to subsidize and pay for other people to live in it. I mean, I can't even say that out loud without just mincing. Have people lost their fucking mind? But again, if, listen, property rights. If you need the government to enforce your property rights, then they're not. Then it was always a rented right. It was always a rented right. And when push comes to shove, if you're going to get enough political infighting and political violence and you've got rise in socialism and you're so indebted. The reason Illinois needs my bitcoin is because they need. They can't pay their bills any other way. They're just going to start taking your shit. Pensions are underwater. Things need to get funded. Here's a proposal. Oh, those people have stuff. Yeah, we're just going to take it from them. And so if property rights needs to be enforced physically as opposed to politically, there's no better asset than bitcoin. Bitcoin is like the only pure form of property rights. I've said this before, but listen to how good bitcoin is it enforcing property rights If I have a house. So this house I'm sitting in right now and someone wants to take my house, they can walk in here, put a bullet or put a gun to my head and put a bullet through my brain. And they get the house because I'm dead. And now it's their house. Same with gold. If I have a vault of gold and someone wants my gold, they can physically harm me, get me out of the way and physically take my gold. Now, If I have 12 words that represent bitcoin in my brain, the only way to guarantee that you don't get the bitcoin is by killing me. Because then, I mean, I'm dead. I can't tell you the 12 words you strategically have to keep me alive if you actually want the bitcoin someday. So it is. The property rights that bitcoin allows for all of us is so severe and it is protected physically. You're incentivized to take care of me. You harm me, the bitcoin is gone. So I just think that this is another thing to keep an eye on one. I mean, this is a disgrace. It's disgusting. If we don't have property rights in America, what do we have? But it's another bull bitcoin. I mean, the combination of AI is concerning. How's everyone going to get paid back? Is this the right place to be placing all this investment? Should we take a look at bitcoin? Is the marginal investor or speculator going to start taking a look at bitcoin? Because the math isn't mathing with AI and the combination of that and property rights being violated throughout the United States in certain states, I mean, I think that's bullish. Bitcoin. I think it's really, really bullish Bitcoin. The next time someone decides between bitcoin and real estate in New York, I mean, that decision was just made for them. Real estate in New York is not yours. Why would you buy it? I'd rather rent. I'd rather rent. Miss my rent and then not be able to get evicted. Honestly, I might move to New York and just not pay rent. Fuck it. I mean, this is ridiculous. What a clown world. Stay humble and stack stats. Okay, strike updates. We're about to hopefully start testing our interest on cash. Our giving you guys some interest on your idle cash on the platform. So we're really excited about that. Amongst a bunch of other things, we're launching Inheritance this month, which is really exciting. So like I said, we should have some next episode. Should be a bit bigger. I got no Dylan today, so no real Q and A this week. I'm gonna check the chat. I don't want to leave you guys super hanging, but it's just too hard. Obviously I can't be writing down questions while I'm speaking. So no Dylan is tough. Shorter episode, but a lot going on in a good way. But strike. Strike continues to come along. We're launching feature or two a week. Continuing to grow despite the bear market, really proud of the business. And the next really big few things are beneficiaries that you can add to your account. Inheritance, all that good stuff. And we will give you some interest on your idle cash on the platform, which I know you guys are really excited about. Okay, let's check the chat. The Chicago Bears still suck. That's true. That's true. All right, I'll tell you what. I'm just gonna make this one a shorter episode. The chat is ruthless, you guys. It's a danger zone to go in there and it'll. It'll make the end of this a little too messy. I gotta wait. There's a lag. It's just not gonna be worth it. So we'll make sure we do Q A next week. I have a feeling next week will be. Will be a big episode. So with that, I'm out of here. Thanks for listening. Give me feedback on the AI stuff. Do you guys find it interesting? Do you find it relevant? Are you learning? If not, it'd be good to know. And we'll keep an eye on markets. I mean, summers are usually boring. Don't expect the world to change tomorrow. But with the World cup over, and that matters, actually, the World cup is over. People are back at their desks. Markets are starting to move. Things are starting to shake and happen. And we're already halfway through summer, at least how we counted in Chicago. So before you know it, capital might. Might start rotating a little bit. We got midterms coming up, so it might be time to start paying attention. Keep those DCAs on. Stay humble. Stack SATs. Love.
Episode Title: AI Is Changing the World. But At What Cost?
Host: Jack Mallers
Date: July 21, 2026
In this episode, Jack Mallers dives deep into the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI), Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and the state of global markets. The primary focus is on the rapid development and deployment of AI technologies, their economic realities, potential national security implications, and, crucially, what the "AI bubble" might mean for investors, the economy, and especially Bitcoin.
AI and Bitcoin Serve Different Purposes (11:40):
Jack emphasizes that Bitcoin is money (a savings technology), while AI is intelligence, not direct competitors for capital.
Capital Misallocation (14:30):
The wave of investment into AI is compared to past speculative booms, with Jack highlighting the risk of misunderstanding the nature of “savings” (Bitcoin) versus “investment” (AI companies).
None of the Major AI Companies Are Profitable (21:50):
OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, and others are largely built on debt and continuous fundraising.
AI is Not a Software Business (32:00):
Unlike classic software companies, AI requires substantial physical infrastructure (data centers, GPUs, electricity), making it more akin to a real estate or utility business—high cost, negative margin, and massive capital requirements.
Bubble Similarities: 2008 Housing Crisis vs. Dot-com (37:40):
The AI boom is compared to the 2008 housing bubble due to uncollateralized, debt-driven build-outs, rather than just overvalued equities.
China Overtaking American AI? (45:00):
Chinese open-source AI models like “Kimi K3” are now matching or surpassing top US models and are much more cost-competitive.
“Some of these Chinese models are now approaching frontier model quality… and it’s a fraction of the cost.” (46:10)
“US companies reportedly use Chinese AI models more than domestic alternatives. No shit. Why would I? It’s just a no-brainer. That’s the free market at work.” (48:12)
Government Response: Regulation and Potential Ban (50:20):
The US government is considering restricting access to Chinese AI models—a move Jack sees as both likely and problematic.
Roots in Reserve Currency Dynamics (53:20):
Jack draws a line from US economic policy, reserve currency status, and dependence on imports to today’s AI vulnerabilities.
Capital Misallocation and Repricing (68:00):
As competition intensifies and credit spreads widen, Jack predicts many AI investments will go bust, leading capital to seek safer stores—like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin as the Exit Door (88:30):
When AI-related credit markets tighten or misallocation becomes apparent, Bitcoin stands as the exit for capital seeking safety and freedom from counterparty risk.
AI Success ≠ AI Investors Succeed (89:22):
Historical analogies to infrastructure booms: tech endures, but the money is often lost.
AI Data Center Bans in the US (61:15):
Government Overreach, Inflation, and the Broken Social Contract (64:00):
Jack critiques the growing government intervention in both economic and technology spheres, fueling misallocation and stifling innovation.
Property Rights Erosion (98:00):
Expands on recent New York legislation framing landlord practices as “violence,” further undermining property rights and increasing the appeal of Bitcoin as unseizable property:
On Bitcoin vs. AI as Investments:
“If you have capital that needs to be saved, not invested… We are on a mission to monetize the world on hard money.” (17:10)
On Profits as Moral Obligation:
“Profit really is… the financial expression of making the world a better place.” (25:10)
On the AI Credit Bubble:
“AI is more of a credit-driven real estate cycle than a technology cycle.” (36:25)
On Geopolitical Competition:
“Don’t count out China. The story of China over decades competing with the US is: they're relatively on par as far as quality, but the pricing is a fraction.” (46:30)
On the Free Market (regarding Chinese AI):
“It’s an open-source AI model that’s a tenth of the cost at best… You’d have to be an idiot. You’re just sacrificing money.” (49:10)
On the “Pump and Dump” VC Dynamic:
“It’s a game of hot potato. It’s who can sell the last bag, who’s caught holding the bag.” (95:40)
On Real Estate and Property Rights:
“If you need the government to enforce your property rights, then… it was always a rented right.” (103:00)
Manufacturing Snapshot:
Unusually high Philly Fed Manufacturing Index signals potential inflationary pressure, challenging the Fed's capacity to hike rates given historic debt levels.
Bitcoin as a Signal:
Bitcoin continues to grind upward as broader markets wobble, potentially reflecting anticipation of broader reallocations out of AI and into Bitcoin.
Property Rights Under Attack:
Critique of increasing government intervention in landlord-tenant disputes, taxes, and property confiscation threats (New York, Illinois, etc.).
Bullish for Bitcoin:
As ordinary assets and businesses become harder to defend, the appeal of Bitcoin as sovereign, cryptographic property increases.
Strike Updates:
New features (cash interest, inheritance), business growth amid tough markets.
Listener Call-to-Action:
Jack asks for feedback about the AI focus and reassures that these themes will continue to tie back to the Bitcoin-centric mission.
Final Advice:
“Stay humble and stack sats.”
| Topic | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------------|--------------| | AI as the electricity-to-intelligence revolution | 07:15 | | Bitcoin vs. AI capital allocation | 11:57 | | No major AI companies are profitable | 23:12 | | AI is not a software business | 33:48 | | The AI bubble analogy | 37:40 | | Chinese AI models compete on price/quality | 46:10 | | US considers restricting access to Chinese AI | 50:44, 76:45 | | Market misallocation & Bitcoin opportunity | 85:50, 88:30 | | Real estate/property rights & Bitcoin contrast | 101:40, 103:00| | Market update (Philly Fed, rates, debt) | 107:00 | | Final advice: Stack sats | 122:00 |
Jack Mallers highlights the intensifying AI boom—underscored by unsustainable finance, global competition from China, and increasing state intervention. He warns of vast capital misallocation in AI, points to the rising importance (and safety) of Bitcoin, and crescendos with a warning about eroding property rights in America. Main message: Stay humble, stack sats, and never confuse risky AI investment with Bitcoin’s reliable store-of-value properties.