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Yo. Welcome back to another episode of the Jack Maller Show. I am your host, Jack, and you are listening to yet another edition of mail bag Monday, episode 121. The title of today's episode is Bitcoin Sell Off Explained capital rotation and strategy. Strategy being MicroStrategy. MSTR. So we're going to take a look at how the straight of Hormuz is doing in the conflict in Iran, the oil and gas market, the capital rotation that is happening with the expectation of some big IPOs, how that's impacting bitcoin. And then I've traditionally got my butt kicked when I talk about micro strategy, but I don't think that that's a reason not to voice my opinion. I'm not going to be very directional with any bias, just more factual and understanding what their capital stack is, what's going on, what people could potentially be concerned with, how things turn out great, how things turn out not great, so on and so forth. Before we do all of that, let me time stamp this episode. Ladies and gentlemen, it is June 8, 503pm here in Chicago and I'm talking to you all at a Bitcoin price of 63,540. Bitcoin's market cap has fallen to US$1.27 trillion. Our all time high of $126,160 remains that we made on October 6, 2025, 245 days ago. We are 49.6% off our all time high. The last bitcoin block mined since I hit stream was block height 952 899. As always, thank you guys for tuning in. Just a little scheduling note for me. After this episode, I'm off to Prague for the Bitcoin Prague conference. My keynote is Saturday. I'm really excited about it. It's funny, nowadays when I do keynotes, people don't like when I talk about my own companies, which is kind of a. It's kind of funny. It's in a weird way a compliment. So people just like when I talk about bitcoin and the world. And so I'm all for that. Screw it, let's go. So my keynote on Saturday is a deep dive into this idea that I've been hinting at for a while of how bitcoin and AI can create a new renaissance for humanity. And I think that we are already beginning that chapter of our species and of a new form of prosperity. But it's very difficult to articulate these ideas in passing or, or when I see you guys at the grocery store. So I have a keynote slot. I'm really excited about it. Pulled some data understanding how Fiat actually has harmed us in very severe ways and how these new technologies will unlock our flourishing, in particular our artistic nature as humans. So I'm going to be heading to Prague tonight. That'll make this episode a little shorter than usual. Something had to hit the chopping block this week. It was grind my gears. But we'll do some quick market updates. We'll talk a little bit more in depth about strategy than we usually do. I'll do some company updates quickly and I should have time for Q A and then I gotta head to the airport. So without further ado, let's go. First and foremost, as we always start these episodes, instead of trying to follow what every politician is tweeting and what Washington is biased towards saying, we ask the same four questions until the answers change. Before you waste time, answer these first, is the strata Hormuz still closed? Yes, it is. Is the conflict still ongoing? Yes, it. Is our global supply chain still being disrupted? Yes, they are. Can global debt survive this disruption? No, it cannot. None of these answers have changed. All of these answers remain the same. This is increasingly concerning. Just a heads up. I mean, we're one of the rare shows that has said since March that this conflict is probably going to go on for longer than politicians tell you. It's probably more serious than politicians tell you. This is 20 of the world's oil market. We're talking about energy, the currency of the universe, so on and so forth. I don't have time today to go on my rant, but this is beginning to drag on, drag on more than mainstream media, and I think the general public thought it would. And that's going to have an impact on markets and that's going to have an impact on bitcoin. We talked about it on the show. Bitcoin tends to lead because it's the only. It's like the last functioning smoke alarm of fiat liquidity. It's the only functioning free market we have left. And so it's the best at telling us the truth. And so when bitcoin moves so violently, in any direction, up or down, it's probably telling you something. And bitcoin, if it is acting as it usually does, as a functioning smoke alarm for liquidity, is it's telling you things aren't great. It's telling you that there doesn't seem to be enough liquidity to sustain the world around it right now. And the world around it, as we'll talk about, is a conflict in the Middle East. 20% of the world's oil market going entirely offline. Some of the largest IPOs in human history coming to market. All of this requires liquidity. You have Western yields rising, which we know means the bond market continues to underperform and crash. And so bitcoin is screaming. There's just not enough liquidity for the filthy fiat financial system to sustain itself. And if you want to know the truth about the world, you do not have to try and read Twitter, timelines or the press. You could just look at the bitcoin price. So anyways, update on the straight horn moves. There's no update. We're not even going to read politicians tweets. It's still closed. So you can see the sharp decline in February, late February when the conflict started, and it's persisted now through March through April, and we are now through May in the first week of June. And the straight remains closed. And mind you, opening this thing is not just a flip of a switch. It's going to take some time. So the world has to start to consider, well, what's going to happen if this doesn't open anytime soon? What global supply chains are going to be disrupted? What are Western sovereign bond markets going to look like? Our yields going to spike? Are we going to need yield curve control? Should the Fed cut rate? Should the Fed hike rates? It's starting to get a little bit tense. This was from Reuters. Shoot, this is a little small, so I'll read it to you guys. US Gasoline market set for fresh test after near record stock draws. So basically, as we've talked about before on previous weeks, the United States has put a serious dent into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, its spr, its reserves of oil. And the major gasoline companies are starting to say, hey, we're running low too. And so it's kind of interesting, right? Like until we bleed through these reserves, the oil market's not going to show the truth, right? You can think of. I don't want to say that governments are price controlling, but they kind of are, right? Because they're unleashing reserves and they're not letting the free market determine the price of oil because they're padding it with excess reserves. But when you run out of reserves, when oil companies run out of tricks and tactics to blunt the, you know, lack of supply versus an unchanged amount of demand, well, that's not the true price of oil. So what is the true price of oil? It's probably north of $200 a barrel. I'm just speculating but obviously what happens if you. So, okay, price is just a function of supply and demand, right? If supply goes entirely offline and demand doesn't change, then the price is going to go skyrocketing. Now what usually the way supply demand works is if you get the price high enough, demand starts to curtail off. Are you a buyer of oil at $2 a gallon, $3 a gallon, $4 a gallon? Sure. $40 a gallon? No, probably not. That's outrageous. Right? And so at a certain point price curtails demand, but that's what you call a recession. Okay? And so what we're starting to see signs of is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is starting to die off and get to levels where if we bleed into it any further, it would reach record low levels and potentially dangerous. You're starting to see US gas companies signal through the media like, hey, we're gonna have to fresh test the market again. We're starting to reach the end of our tactics. And so just a heads up for my listeners, you guys know what I've said the whole time we are in stay humble stack sats I've kind of hinted at. I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin dipped given the IPOs on the horizon, given the Strait of Hormuz still not open, the conflict in Iran. It just, it would not surprise me if bitcoin. My dad very now famously said markets either scare you out or wear you out. And you're going to get probably both of those. You're going to get a market move that's going to take the bottom from right up under you. You're going to feel your heart drop into your stomach and then you're also going to just get worn out. You're like, God, spare markets last forever. Bitcoin's not doing anything. It's up and down and up and down. It's chopping around. I thought this was the most interesting space with the smartest people and the greatest innovation in the history of mankind. What the hell? This is boring. AI is taking our spotlight and it's just going to grind you down. You can kind of feel that. And so my just advice, as long I assume you guys are here to listen to my opinion. Just turn on your dcas. It's summertime, get outside, eat healthy, lift heavy things, focus on relationship. There's so much I've talked about in life. Don't. There's a form of leverage that is dangerous in bitcoin, which is relying on Bitcoin to be happy. That's not necessarily financial leverage, but it is leverage and it is dangerous. Don't do that either. There's so much to being a good man, a good person, a good woman, a good mother, husband, father, wife, child, brother, sister, blah, blah, blah. Go be productive. That's my, you know, my main message in an economic sense as a business owner, as a contributor to society, or just when it comes to working out, when it comes to nutrition and your body, be productive, work hard. Principled, moral. I think we're in that period where the strong survive, those that hold conviction, the conviction will pay dividends. They always say buying bitcoin is, is easy, people early got lucky. And then you run into times like this. This is hard. And that's been my expectation. It continues to be my expectation. It doesn't look like the straits opening anytime soon. It doesn't look like the oil market is going to ease up. In fact, we might be on the brink of a ratchet higher when a lot of these tactics run dry. And we might have to get to prices where demand starts to tail off because prices are just too high. And that's when you start to see recessionary tendencies. And that's where you'd start to see central planning intervention. So hang in there, Earn more than you spend. Be productive, be happy, be healthy. That's. I mean, at least I. What I tell my employees all the time is I'll never ask you guys to do anything that I don't do ever. So I'm just telling you guys what I'm doing. I'm getting sun, focusing on relationship, experimenting with my diet, lifting, playing pickleball, whatever, right? And just stacking stats, buying bitcoin every single day on the topic of capital outflow. So I just wanted to comment on this. You're probably seeing this said in different forms. I just want to make sure when you come to this show you can truly understand these things. So these are what is happening right now, in my opinion when it comes to bitcoin is what's called a capital rotation. So seeing so much outflows in the Bitcoin ETF. So this tweet reads, Spot Bitcoin ETF, see $1.7 billion in outflows, extending the redemption streak to four weeks, four straight weeks of outflows, which means more people selling and redeeming their IBIT than buying. So more sellers and buyers. Okay. BlackRock's IBIT is leading the exits alongside fidelity and grayscale. Now when we go to this tweet from MacroScope by the way. Unbelievable Twitter follow For those that are looking for a follow, I have him on notifications legend. His tweet reads. Just in case anyone didn't understand that this bitcoin sell off is mostly a capital rotation story and not bitcoin specifically. It's very easy to click sell IBIT in the brokerage account and free up funds for this. In the long term, Bitcoin will continue to greatly benefit from creation of an etf. It also becomes more susceptible to short term capital rotations by mainstream investors. This rotation should slow, may already have started in the past day and then eventually reverse. And he's quote tweeting a quote that's talking about the SpaceX IPO. And when you see these outflows and capital rotation you what people are saying when they mention this is that when you have there's a few things one let's just take the ultimate step back when the US economy is starting to boom again. Money is going into the economy and out of financial assets. The the best example to understand this are the large cap tech companies like Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google. These businesses have gone from taking all their cash flows, billions and billions and billions of dollars in doing stock buybacks, where they're pouring their cash into financial markets and now they're pouring their cash into large capitally intensive AI buildouts. And so that is bearish the equities and bullish the economy. The money is going into the real economy and out of the equities. And you started to see this. It doesn't necessarily mean that their stock price goes down, but it means that the multiple like you've starting to see, you're starting to see the multiple compression and people say oh, that's AI compressing the multiple. At the end of the day everyone's going to come up with their own narrative. But the point is capital cash is going into the main street economy and out of financial markets. This has also been a bit of a drag on Bitcoin. When people need to raise cash, they sell things that were saving their cash, whether that's gold, whether that's Treasuries, whether that's bitcoin. And so you see bitcoin sell off. When people need to raise cash, it's always sell what you can, not what you want. And because bitcoin's so accessible, it's such a free market 24 7, seven days a week, 365 days a year, you can sell bitcoin in any currency at any time. It's the easiest way to raise cash. And so for one, because the economy is starting to boom, you're starting to see this tension between the main street economy and financial markets. And you see this in things like semiconductors, et cetera. The other thing are these IPOs and AI sucking the marginal risk capital away from the financial, other financial assets like Bitcoin. When you have, you've got the SpaceX IPO, then you've got the Anthropic IPO, then you've got the OpenAI IPO and all these capital managers and hedge funds and retail investors want an allocation into these premier equities. This is the new Internet, this is the new wave, the new bubble. And you're clearly seeing a capital rotation out of things like Bitcoin and into these other things, which is fine. It's not the, it's not the end of the world. It doesn't mean that A.I. here's the thing. Bitcoin is money. SpaceX is a company, they're not competitors. You know, at the margins risk capital is going to like in a month or two or three or four, whatever, who cares? The same investors are going to be selling their SpaceX equity because it, it had a successful IPO and they're going to be rotating back into bitcoin. They're not one for one replacements, they're not competitors. SpaceX equity is not money. It doesn't matter. But I just want people to understand what's happening here. What's happening here is capital rotation. It's very, it's clear as day to see when you have these large outflows from the ETF and it coincides with all of the brokerages instructing people on how to get allocations into these blue chip IPOs. It's very simple. And on the back half of all of this, as I said, Bitcoin is a functioning smoke alarm for fiat liquidity. And so when you have a combination of conflict in the Middle east, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil market remains in relative shock and it's bleeding through strategic reserves and is might re enter new price discovery that could threaten recession and really do even more damage that's already been done to western bond markets. On top of that you have some of the biggest technology IPOs, at least in the last 26, 27 years, but probably ever. And what Bitcoin is saying is there isn't enough filthy fiat to support this filthy financial system. All of this debt, all of these bonds, all of this war, all of these tech bubbles. If you want to support this financial system, you're going to have to print more money or else you're going to start to see things fall apart or else you will enter a recession. Or else that's the point that people should be taking away. Because when you look at bitcoin, it just tells you the truth. You know, I've come to like a spiritual peacefulness with bitcoin where I don't get mad at bitcoin. It's not Bitcoin's fault. Bitcoin doesn't have any emotions, it doesn't think, it doesn't have a bias. It's just telling me information, it's telling me the truth. And I should be okay with that information. I shouldn't be too leveraged and that information shouldn't ruin my life. It shouldn't change how I think about myself. It just, it's just information. And the information is there's too much tech bubbleness, there's too much war, there's too much bond market sell off, there's too much oil shock for this filthy Fiat's financial system to handle itself. Because at the end of the day, when you're $40 trillion in debt, you're levered, you're substantially levered and a little bit of gust of wind can blow you over. And that's what bitcoin is telling us. And so what's going to happen, I've been on record and I'll continue to do so. I think they will print the money. I think that they will find ways to inject liquidity into the financial system and they will effectively over time default via dilution. The other thing that can happen is we just enter a recession which turns into a depression, which turns into a severe form of austerity where we go through like the Great Depression times a thousand and we reset human civilization and everything we know about it through violence and war and everything around you is on fire and every institution that you know falls apart. Now bitcoin in my opinion, wins in that world too. But it will sell off along with everything else. Everything we know and love will be gone. And, and now that those are the two kind of options, politicians obviously opt for the first one, which is we're going to sneakily print money and bail out the situation we're in by stealing from the, the common man in, in their purchasing power. So keep that in mind. That's what's happening to Bitcoin. It's telling you the truth. It's one of the rare assets that can, it's not A bad thing. It's a thing. It's okay. It's the state of the world. It's fine. Over the long arc, the dollar has to get debased. They have to print the money. I think bitcoin will win in the free market competition of money. But that is what's happening. One more kind of like just including this in the update. I just needed to make a note that zcash being. So what happened with zcash? Claude? This Claude model that was previously not available to the public because of just how good it was at finding critical security vulnerabilities. Claude Opus 4.8 uncovered a critical Zcash bug and it was an inflation bug. Zcash crashed. I think this tweet was 27% down on the day, but I think it got up to 50% down on the day. So in one day its price dropped in half. I just want to say something about this. Obviously everyone knows I'm not a fan of altcoins. You could call me a bitcoin maximalist. Although I've been around long enough to know that Vitalik Buterin created the term bitcoin maximalism as a Slurpee. And so I don't necessarily like to use it because he created it to imply that there are people that aren't open minded enough to consider other currencies and other projects and other pre mined tokens. And so those people over there, those are bitcoin maximalists. Those are rigid, angry, you don't want to piss them off because they woke up on the wrong side of the bed. And then you have these open minded people that wouldn't mind entertaining the idea of buying my pre mined token. That's why he invented the term, just for those curious. But anyway, I'm not a fan of shitcoins. I think they're all garbage. I don't think they've innovated and solved a real problem. I think they're an arbitrage on the trend. They're both a regulatory arbitrage and an information arbitrage they are taking advantage of. You know, if the securities or equities market tried to do what they do, everyone would go to jail. So it's a new industry that isn't properly regulated. So there's a form of regulatory arbitrage where they get to get away with things that other people like printing tokens out of thin air and paying Justin Bieber to tell a bunch of 18 year olds on Instagram to buy it. If that, if, if someone did that with equity In a company, they'd go to jail. But because it's a crypto, it's. It's legal, I guess. So there's a regulatory arbitrage and then there's an informational arbitrage, which is, how can I make money on this technology trend? Well, most people don't fundamentally understand any of these things. So I could tell them that they're late to bitcoin. And I built the faster bitcoin, the more private bitcoin, the smart contract Bitco, the even more decentralized bitcoin, the lighter bitcoin, the Chinese bitcoin. And I can sell it to them. I can create it and sell it to them, and they don't know the difference. As long as the marketing budget is high enough and the brand is good enough, then that's the best way to monetize this technology trend is I call it an arbitrage on the trend. It's both regulatory and informational arbitrage. And so zcash was marketed recently as the privacy Bitcoin. And the way zcash achieved this is, you know, through to greatly oversimplify it, because that's what this show is about, in my opinion, is by the common man. For the common man, zcash prioritized security. It prioritized privacy at the expense of transparency and auditability. One of the things that's been highly debated in the bitcoin technical community for years. Guys, I've been in the bitcoin space for almost 14 years, okay? This has always been a highly debated and just topic of conversation in the developer community is we can make bitcoin transactions more private, but then it gets a lot harder, in fact, technically impossible in some cases to actually audit the bitcoin supply to bitcoin transactions. Because if you use certain privacy tools, you can't actually tell how many bitcoins there are. What if someone created more than 21 million? And so there's this very natural trade off between simplicity and auditability and privacy. And that's why you've hear people say things like, well, you can actually take great strides with privacy on a second layer, like lightning. You know, you can solve privacy on side chains, you can solve privacy on second layers. But at the very fundamental base blockchain layer, we want to keep it on layer one. We want to keep it as simple as possible. Because bitcoin needs to be auditable, transparent, and it just needs to work. It needs to be money. And what's funny is now that all of these AI models are getting so good. The rate of hacks in defi and the rate of bugs in shitcoins is through the roof. People would say all the time to me, oh, these defi lending markets are so much cheaper than strike lending. Like, aha. And it's like, I, I don't know how long you guys will be laughing because I don't use any of these shitcoin defi things that Claude is going to find a bug in and your money's going to disappear. I also don't encourage people to store money in something that's trying to sell you the private version of bitcoin. Guys, Bitcoin attracts the brightest minds in the world. It's a top 10 asset in the world. It's been around the longest. It's not as if any of us haven't thought of these ideas. Zcash didn't come up with anything that bitcoiners didn't come up with. The bitcoin community decided it was irresponsible and it was dangerous. And it's just these people are arbitraging the trend. Hey, I have the private bitcoin to sell you. I have the faster bitcoin to sell you. I have the slicker bitcoin to sell you. I have the Justin Bieber bitcoin to sell you. I have the gaming bitcoin to sell you. No, you have a version of bitcoin that was deemed irresponsible and dangerous, but you're going to repackage it, put a nice logo on it, print a bunch for yourselves and go sell it. That's what you have. And now the coolest thing about AI is the marginal cost of knowledge work is going very close to zero. The marginal cost of intelligence and knowledge work for me is $200 a month. That's what I pay anthropic. So in order to find bugs in all these shitty software, in order to do models on all my interesting ideas, in order to write software for all the things that I want to build, in order to explore philosophy, for all the ways I view the world, it costs $200 a month. And so the marginal cost for you to access truth is just so cheap nowadays. It's great. So anyway, just be careful, man, like, there's no faster bitcoin. There is no, there is no privacy bitcoin, these things are dangerous. They, the bitcoin community decided not to do these things for a reason and now you have zcash with an inflation bug. Nobody knows how much zcash there is anymore. That's why? It's selling off, it's not safe, it's not a good way to store any of your money. So, and I expect this to happen more. All these AI models are going to find critical vulnerabilities in these projects by the way, in order to have a project that can carry trillions of dollars in market cap and be highly secure. It's not easy. I think there are only like five core zcash contributors in the world. So like there can't be thousands of crypto tokens, do you know? Like that doesn't scale, There are network effects and economies of scale. Like all the MIT professors and all of the open source grants and the Jack Dorsey's and the Michael Saylors of the world, like they're focused on bitcoin. ZCASH doesn't have any of that. They don't have hundreds and hundreds of expert level developers and the best universities, professors studying and teaching courses in classes and public companies starting open source grants like they don't have any of that. None of these projects do. And so they're very vulnerable to critical error. So just be careful. I expect where the marginal cost of all of this white collar expertise gets closer and closer to zero, this is gonna get, I mean it's good for the world. It's very good that shitty things are being called out for being shitty and being caught. But it's very bad that normal people get caught in the middle of that. Like I feel awful. I've been in the space the whole time, I've watched these projects start and convince people that they're buying, that they're early to the better version of Bitcoin or the private version of bitcoin. And I'm now watching them, their wealth just evaporate and it sucks and it's sad. So whatever, if I, if I have some airwaves and some people willing to listen to me, just be careful out there. Just stay humble and stack sats. Buy Bitcoin, keep it simple. This is why bitcoin simplicity matters. This is why whether a block confirms in an average of 10 minutes or 5 minutes or 3 minutes, it doesn't fucking matter. We're going to scale it in layers anyway. It's about being secure, it's about being simple, it's about being sound, it's about being scalable. Okay? There is no like faster, slicker Justin Bieber version of it. Bitcoin isn't the MySpace to who, whatever influencers version, Facebook, that these people don't have your best interest at heart either. My last line, then I gotta move on. They're either incompetent or malicious, but both are as equally dangerous. Some people are just too stupid to be giving you advice and they don't know it, but that's just. That's still just as dangerous. Okay, let's spend a little bit of time talking about microstrategy or strategy, and then we'll get into some Q and A, and then I gotta go to the airport. Okay, first of all, just some quick disclaimers here. When I've talked about strategy in the past, I've gotten my ass kicked. I expect to get my ass kicked again. That's okay. I've come around to it. It's no problem. But you guys should know a few things. One, have nothing but respect for Michael. Have met him, hung out with him a ton of times, Talked to him semi frequently. I have no. I have no problem with Michael. I also do not own any mstr. Never have. I don't own any stretch. Never have. So I'm not talking my book. I'm not also talking against. I don't. I've never shorted the. I've no. Never taken a position. Never owned. Never. None of that. Okay. I also don't consider 21 to be a direct competitor of strategy, at least anymore. And I'll get into that like, none of my companies doing the perpetual preferred thing. And so I. I don't consider this to be, like, benefiting my corporate interests in any way either. This is strictly for informational purposes. This is. People ask me tons of questions. It's a common topic. People are either scared or excited, generally feel uninformed, want my opinion, and so I'm not gonna let you know. People on the Internet make me feel afraid to give you my opinion. It'll be my opinion. But this. I don't feel as if sharing this information biases me in any way. I don't own any of these things. I've never shorted any of these things. I have no financial incentive to say anything in particular. It's just my opinion. Ultimately, at the end of the day, both my financial incentive and my heart is with Bitcoin. And that's what I care about most. And it is what it is. Fair enough. Cool. I got a slack message. Let me make sure it's not Dylan. Okay, cool. Let's do it. All right. So first and foremost, I don't know who listens to me. Actually, like, knows what strategy is. Maybe there's some people here that need to get caught up. So we're going to start just from the basics. Strategy owns about 4% of all the bitcoin that were, that will ever exist. Okay. They have about 845,000 bitcoin. That. Bitcoin is valued at about $57 billion. Now, these things change. So let's pull up the actual data. Okay, so this number needs to come down a bit. The bitcoin, as I'm talking to you, is at $53.4 billion. Their debt, plus preferreds is at about $22 billion. So this is kind of the company in a nutshell. They've got, I think it's about $6 billion of debt. They've got about $16 billion, I believe, of preferred equities that they've issued. So that gets you to this $22 billion number. That's against $53 billion worth of bitcoin and that $53 worth of bitcoins, 845,000 units. And that implies, you know, the price of whatever, 6,63,000. Fair enough. Okay. So for the beginning of strategy's journey, it was a fairly simple idea. They would raise cash via two ways. They would sell equity via what's called an atm, and that is them selling their common equity shares at the market. That's what ATM stands for. And so if a share of strategy costs $127, they would create a new one. So they would inflate the supply by one and they would sell it into the market. And if someone would buy it at the price they were looking for, then the buyer got a new share of MSTR. And MSTR Strategy, the company got $127 worth of cash. And that was one way for them to raise it. Now, that's obviously dilutive to the equity because you're inflating the supply, right, in the same way that when the Fed prints dollars, they create new dollars, they're making all the existing dollars weaker. Same thing with a company. When a company prints new shares, they're making all the existing shares weaker. But the question is, what does the company do with the proceeds of the cash? And so the theory for this company is that they would raise the cash by selling new shares into the market. And they would take the cash and they would buy bitcoin. And they would do it in an accretive way where if, excuse me, if the economics worked out to where they could sell equity and use the cash proceeds to buy bitcoin, and, and it would increase what they call bitcoin per share, then it's, it's accretive in bitcoin terms. The other way that they raised money is with these convertible debt instruments. So they would raise this debt, and they were very famous at the time for the zero coupon, which means zero percent interest they would have to pay so they could raise a convertible bond that converts in five years at a certain premium. Let me give you guys an example. Sorry if this is repetitive to some of you, but again, just trying to keep things simple on the show. So let's say an equity is trading at $10 a share and they raise a convertible bond that is a zero coupon, up 30. What does that mean? That sounds like a bunch of gibberish. That means that zero coupon means zero percent interest. So how much money do you have to pay? And like, this is a convertible bond. So what's the bond, what's the coupon, what's the yield? There's zero percent, so you don't actually have to pay the holder anything. And then the up 30 means that the holder of this bond converts into equity at a 30% premium. So if the stock's at $10, they convert at $13. Now, the reason that this was an interesting instrument is because effectively you are selling these guys equity at $13 a share when your equity is at $10. So you're selling them expensive equity, you're selling them equity at a 30% premium to where the equity is today. So if I sell a billion dollar zero coupon convertible bond at up 30, that means I'm selling my. I'm selling a billion dollars of my equity 30% higher than what it's trading today. And I can take the billion dollars right now and buy bitcoin. So I'm effectively selling $1 billion of my equity at 13 bucks and buying bitcoin with it. And I'm kind of capturing the spread. I. It's creating an arbitrage against, you know, the future. My equity, a premium to my equity and the current value of bitcoin. Does that make sense? And it was very cheap because there was no cash obligation on these instruments. And if there was, you know, MicroStrategy was paying 0% interest or 0.5% interest, 0.75% interest. Very, very, very cheap interest payments for large sums of money that inevitably converted into equity, but at a premium. And so they raised a bunch of these debt instruments and they bought a ton of bitcoin with the combination of selling their common equity at a premium to the asset value on the balance sheet and using these convertible debts to Raise a ton of money. That converted at 30% above, 40% above, 50% above the stock price. In buying bitcoin. The point at the bottom is they, they didn't really have any cash obligations. So the company doesn't make any money. And it's not like a Facebook or a Microsoft or an Amazon. It's not a big company that makes a lot of cash flow, has a lot of customers, produces a lot of new products, its actual operations is fairly small, hasn't displayed tons of growth and doesn't make any money. And so it was important in the beginning they didn't have any cash obligations. So again there was no, there's no interest on selling equity. And when they sold these convertible bonds there was rarely a large coupon, if any coupon at all. Makes sense you guys, I cut out grandma gear so you guys can ask questions. So please write questions in the chat. Dylan can, can jot them down and we'll answer them later. So that was a very simple idea. And in this world, by the way, there was no scenario in my opinion that they'd ever have to sell bitcoin, ever. Just to be clear, I think their need to sell bitcoin came later after the preferreds, which we'll explain in a second. But it should be noted that in this where you're just doing equity and you're just doing convertible debt, that they never had to sell any bitcoin. Now why didn't they just keep doing this? Well, Saylor noted very publicly and he said many a times that they outgrew this market, they outgrew this convertible bond market. And so he could have very easily just said the trade is over, we outgrew this market and we're just going to end it here, whatever. I'm making up a number. We already have 500,000 bitcoin. This debt I can continue to refinance and eventually over time it will convert or I can even retire it if I want. There's all sorts of options. But I don't ever technically have to sell the bitcoin. There's no real scenario to where in which I'll have to sell the bitcoin. And whatever it doesn't, I'm not going to continue to stack. I'm not going to be able to buy bitcoin every Monday. But I, I mean I did a thing I, I put on. I, I would say that these are trades and these are self described trades like they call them, like the company describes itself as financial engineering. So this is clever versions of Arbitrage, right? These are trades. I would describe it less as business in the sense of building a product, having customers. There's no customer support for these products necessarily. Right. So they did a trade. But the problem is trades have a start and an end, right? Like an arbitrage trade. Just so everyone knows. An arbitrage, for example, would be if on one side of town I could buy a banana for $1. Let's say on the east side of town I could buy a banana for a dollar. And on the west side of town, I can sell a banana for $10. So there's an arbitrage opportunity there because the market is inefficiently pricing bananas across town. I could very easily just drive to the east side of town, load up on $1 bananas, and then drive over to the west side of town and sell all of them for $10. And I'm netting $9 for every banana. But eventually I buy enough bananas at $1, I start to drive the price up to $5. And then I sell enough bananas at $10 where I start to drive the price down to $5. And the market finds its true efficient equilibrium of $5 for a banana. And maybe that there's a slight premium on one side of town and a slight discount on the other. But because of weather or because of traffic or because maybe at the margins, but generally speaking, the market finds its efficiency. Now I've monetized. What did I do that was productive? Why did I earn capital? Why was I profitable? Well, because the market was inefficient and I provided efficiency to the marketplace, which is a very productive thing to do. People that. People that were looking to sell bananas on the east side of town were missing out on $4 by selling it for a dollar. And people looking to buy were overpaying at $10. They could have got them for five. And I provided the market efficiency. But then the trade. The point is the trade ends. Like the arbitrage trade doesn't necessarily go forever. Then the trade has an end date and you move on and you look for a new trade or you do no more trading. It's up to you. Now, MicroStrategy did a new trade. So the next chapter was these preferreds, okay? And there's four preferreds that exist. There's one called Strike, okay? It's an 8% convertible preferred, sold about five and a half billion dollars. Of that there's strife, which is a 10% senior preferred. They sold about $2 billion to that. There's stride. That's a 10% junior preferred. They sold about $3 billion of that. And then there's Stretch, which is their flagship, the one that they talk about in market the most. It seems to be the future of the company. According to their earnings calls and their interviews and media appearances. That is an eleven and a half percent perpetual preferred that prefer that eleven and a half percent is variable. So it changes and has historically gone up. If the instrument is below 95, it's supposed to go up 50 basis points. And they've already issued over $10 billion of that. Across all of these preferreds they have issued $15 billion in total. And the blended annual rate of that is about 11% because the majority of it has been stretch. Okay, let me zoom in on this because this is really important. Now we have to understand the capital stack. So after the preferreds, I would say microstrategy got decently more complicated. It was a very simple capital structure to understand when it was just convertible notes. And when you add the preferreds, there's now many different types of people that you have to please involved in the capital structure. So at the very bottom, the safest are these debt holders, the convert holders. If things go kapoof and people need to get their money back, the people that get their money back first are the, are the debt holders. The debt holders get out first, then you have the preferreds and the preferreds are stacked as such. And then at the very bottom, the people that are waiting last in line are the common equity holders. But these are, there are four different, in my opinion, people to please. One are bitcoiners. So they have a bunch of bitcoin, right? And they have like selling bitcoin is not necessarily something that bitcoiners would want. If you just dumped 800,000 bitcoin on the market. So you have bitcoiners, then you have debt holders, then you have preferred holders and then you have common equity holders. Those are the four classes and they each have different bitcoiners. Like no one has rights to this bitcoin. This is just bitcoin owned by the company. I think sometimes it's confusing. People say that the preferreds are backed by the bitcoin. They're not backed by the bitcoin. There's no guarantee, there's no claim to the bitcoin. If you want to get your money back from a preferred, you have to sell the preferred in the secondary market. The company cannot give does not give you anything to guarantee that preferred. So the bitcoin is separate but I do think that this company has a relationship with bitcoiners because of the amount of bitcoin they have. Then there's the debt holders, the preferred holders, and the common equity holders. Okay, let's keep going. Oops. Why is this not working? Come on. There we go. Okay, what is a perpetual preferred? This stretch thing, this, this is like the core of what we need to understand here. A perpetual preferred. It's interesting because there are people on the Internet that say it's not debt because you never have to repay the principal. So, you know, someone buys $100 stretch strategy, never has to pay back the hundred dollars. It's not like a loan. So it's not debt. But then they imply that it's equity. But it's not equity either because it never converts in. It doesn't convert into equity. It's perpetual. It's non callable. It means you owe the money forever. So what I have written on the slide is a subscription that you sign your company up for. You pay a fixed dividend now, twice a month, forever. It never matures. You can never ever cancel it. Now technically, and we'll get into this, technically, the company can cancel it, which I don't know if that makes it better or worse. I guess it's kind of in the eye of the beholder. But the point is, the structure of the instrument is that it's perpetual. It never, ever, ever ends. So you owe the money forever once you die and you hand your, your company to your heirs, like they also then owe the money, and then they die and they hand that, and they also owe the money. It can never be retired. And so let's compare that to the convertible bonds they were doing. The convertible bonds were zero coupons, so there was no cash that was owed. They matured and they converted into equity. And so they didn't last forever. The stock hit $13. Everyone converted. Remember the whole. The stock was at $10. The convertible bond was up 30, which means the premium conversion was 30% higher, which a $10 stock means it's 13. There was zero coupon, so there was no interest payments to make. So it was very cash light, capital light. There was no, I didn't have to make interest payments, which was critical because the company wasn't making any money. So I could take a bunch of money, buy bitcoin and just wait for the bitcoin to go up enough for my stock to go up, and then everyone converts into equity and then the debt is retired and I move on. Now you compare this Preferred, it's kind of the opposite where not only is it not zero percent coupon, it's eleven and a half percent right now, which means you owe eleven and a half percent on ten and a half billion dollars forever. I think right now strategies, cash obligation on an annual basis for the preferreds is $1.7 billion. So even if they never issued another preferred, they would owe $1.7 billion forever, never stopping. These things don't mature and they don't convert. And so that's why when people say, well, it's not debt, they don't know the principal. Yeah, that's fair. I'm not, I mean, sure, but implying its equity is, is equally as misleading because it doesn't convert into equity. It's a, it's a, it's. I don't know how what it should be categorized as not really the point of this, this is just for information, just to try and educate people. Answer as many of the questions as I get at once here. So the point though is how opposite it was from what they did before and how they introduced a brand new class of people to their capital stack. So you have people that own debt now, you have people that own these preferreds which are basically owed cash forever. Then you have the common equity holders which own the actual MSTR equity and, and then you have the bitcoiners that care about all the bitcoin that you hold and whether that's a risk to bitcoin. And I have at the bottom here that they marketed this to everyone like these are direct quotes. So again people are going to say I'm being mean, I'm literally quoting, I'm not being mean at all. The direct quotes, the safest 12% yield on the planet. Another one, it's like a money market fund. Now obviously after the last week, I don't think anyone would say that this is like a money market fund, but that's just how it was initially marketed. And not to say that there was any malicious intent. Maybe they thought that, who knows? Here's the $1.7 billion number. So this is how much, because now we understand how the perpetuals work. This is how much cash the company needs to come up with a year forever. And obviously it's a really, there's a really interesting feedback loop here because as the preferreds are more successful, the burden of cash becomes higher. So if they keep issuing more stretch, then this number just keeps going up and up and up and up and up. And mind you, the company doesn't make $1.7 billion a year. If Google wanted to say, we make $10 billion a year of free cash flow, or let's use Tether, for example. Tether makes something like that. I actually don't know. Call it $10 billion a year of free cash flow. And if they said we want to take on $2 billion of dividend obligations to raise money to do something, buy bitcoin, build something new, I have no idea they could pay that with their cash flow. And so the question of how do they pay that is pretty simple. Their business produces that. Now the risk is that the business stops producing it. Tether becomes a shitty stablecoin. People move to circle and tether can't afford it anymore. And investors would have to like gauge the risk of, okay, well, you know, when buying this thing, I'm taking on the counterparty risk that they can make me whole on it. Right. This is not like buying a real government bond because the government can print the money to make you whole on it. But how does MicroStrategy pay it? Well, they don't make any money. And so that's kind of the natural question that the market has started to ask is they have to raise the cash somehow because they owe this money forever, they can't retire it. So where does the $150 million a month come from? Here are the four options. And these are kind of the four classes of people within the capital structure that we talked about earlier. One is the bitcoin holders. So one way to come up with the cash is you can sell Bitcoin. Two is the mstr, common equity holders. Another way to come up with the cash is, is you can sell common equity so that ATM that at the market you can create new shares so you can inflate the count of shares and sell new shares into the market. And then the other people that you have here are preferred holders and debt holders. And the question that I think the market is asking right now is can all of these people win at the same time when Bitcoin's not going up? I'm going to say that again. There are four. Four people enter the capital structure. I'm going to change my slide here, actually. Four investors. Investors enter the capital structure. Can they all win at the same time? And especially when BTC is in a bear market. That's the fundamental question that we need to be asking. Can all of these people be happy? Because, for example, right now the preferred holders are getting crushed because the preferred is down a bunch. And one way they can help the Preferred people out is raise some cash to give the market confidence that they can afford these bills and increase the dividend. But by raising the cash, if they have to sell bitcoin and sell strategy shares and then by raising the dividend imply that their future expenses are even more expensive, then you are making the bitcoiners and the MSTR common shareholders sad to benefit the preferred holders and the debt holders. Now another option is you can say we're never selling any bitcoin and we're not in. We're not diluting the MSTR shareholders. But that would be making the bitcoiners and the MSTR shareholders happy at the expense of the preferred holders. Because you're Saying, yeah, stretches $93 a share, but we don't give a fuck. We told you it was like a money market fund. I guess we were kind of wrong. So the question that the market is asking today and like why it's such a topic of conversation is before a long time ago, strategy was fairly simple to understand. You had equity, you had these convertible debt instruments and the debt converted into equity. And it was a very simple capital structure. Now with these preferreds, especially the perpetual one, it, it gets a little bit more complicated. The financial engineering is a little bit more complicated. So here's. Sorry, this slide's really shittily designed. I, whatever it's about, hey, it's, it's, it's the point that matters. But here's basically what I just said in a slide for enter will all leave. So the bitcoin holders are saying, well, they'll never have to sell bitcoin. The debt holders are saying, well, assets will always exceed liabilities. The preferred holders will say the dividends will always be paid. And the MSTR common will say bitcoin appreciation will always keep the M nav above 1. Individually. Each of those can be right for a long time. But the question the market has is can they all be right forever? Especially through a bear market because their EBIT. So how much money they make is zero. And obviously if you lay over that $2 billion of expenses a year, it's who, who is burdening that cost? Like which class of people is burdening that cost and are they okay with that is the question. So I write each stakeholder group has a belief about why they're safe. Bitcoin holders think that strategy will never sell. Debt holders look at the balance sheet and say that the assets exceed the liabilities. Preferred holders trust that the dividends will keep flowing. And common shareholders believe Bitcoin's appreciation will always justify an M Nav above one. Individually each can hold for a long time, but collectively it might be impossible for all four to hold forever. You can't pay $2 billion a year with no income without sacrificing one group. When markets get tough, that's pretty much the story. Does that make sense? And there's a. There's another layer in here which I may need to explain. That MNAV is interestingly calculated. Like their true M Nav is actually closer to 1.3 than 1. So having an M nav right now of 1.2 is actually not above 1. I'll have to explain that maybe in Q and A. I wanted to keep this simple. So anyways, what happened over the last few weeks? So if you are casually just like living your life, you're going to the gym, you've got a family, you're eating farm raised food and you're not paying attention to any of this and all of a sudden strategy is all over the news. You're like, what actually happened? Here's my interpretation of what happened earlier this year. Strategy. I think it was this year, right? 2026 had to have been strategy. Raised a US dollar reserve. They raised a 2 billion dollar US dollar reserve by selling 2 billion dollars of newly printed MSTR shares. And it was my interpretation that they raised this cash to tell to basically show the market, hey, bitcoin isn't doing so hot. So you must be asking how we're going to come up with all this money. Well, here's $2 billion worth of cash which should give us a little bit of Runway in case the market bleeds sideways. You guys won't have to panic because basically the market is like, holy, they have to come up with all this cash. Are they going to be sacrificing me? Like the preferred holders are saying, are they going to suspend the dividends? The MSTR holders are saying, are they going to dilute and inflate away the stock? The bitcoiners are saying, oh my God, are they going to dump a bunch of bitcoin on our heads? Right? And so everyone's asking like who are they going to sacrifice to come up with the cash? And they raised the cash at the time and said, this should put everyone at ease. We have enough cash. Okay? Now at the time I think it was two years. Then it became 18 months because they issued more stretch which again, the more successful stretches, the higher the burden becomes on how much cash they need. But the point was everyone can breathe A sigh of relief. Now, this was like at the time, this was painful for MSTR shareholders because they got diluted. But it was helpful for Stretch because it put everyone's mind at ease. But again, I keep highlighting this because there's a tug of war going on. Like every time it's beneficial for one group, it's detrimental to the other group. And unless bitcoin is in a raging bull market, it's unclear to the market. I think what the market is trying to figure out right now is how the entire capital structure can be happy at the same time. So. Oops. So we go on. What happened over the last few weeks is MicroStrategy spent that cash reserve, so they actually paid off a 2029 convertible debt early at 92 cents on the dollar. And the market freaked out because they went from having enough Runway for the market not to have to freak out about how they're going to come up with the cash anytime soon to needing to come up with cash soon. And everyone was like, why did you pay off a debt instrument that converted by 2029, like, that's so far out. Meanwhile, you owe all this cash and you don't make any money. And so now we all have to start panicking and figuring out who you're going to burden to come up with the money. Which again, it, it depends on who you are. And if you think this is a good strategy or bad strategy, I'm just more reporting. But that is when obviously the market started to freak out a bit. And then there was obviously, if you look at the prediction markets of is Sailor going to sell? Bitcoin started to spike because again, you have to come up with the cash. Before the preferreds, you didn't have to come up with the cash. Now that you have these preferreds, which might be the most genius invention in human history, I'm not, you know, I personally don't think so. Obviously I could do this strategy at my company if I wanted to. I don't. So I am personally not a fan. But I'm not saying, you know, Saylor has defied like all the, all the haters before. Who knows if he will again, it's totally possible. But when you introduce this to your capital structure, you owe a lot of money forever. And, and so now the market starts to freak out and say, how are you going to come up with the money? Are you going to just tell all of the stretch holders, like, sorry, this thing's going to sit in the low 90s for a while, like it's Not a money market. And then they start dumping it. MSTR shareholders start to get nervous, like, oh, man, what if he starts issuing a ton and diluting the stock even though it's not above nav? Again, the actual nav is not 1.0. I'll explain that later. And then the bitcoin holders start to freak out, and the bitcoin market starts to freak out, because it's like, okay, this guy owes a ton of money forever, and he seemingly can't pay it without selling something. What if it's the bitcoin? Then you've got Iran, then you've got these IPOs, and Bitcoin starts to sell off. So that, like, that's kind of what happened. So they kind of. They use the word inoculate, which I found weird. It's an interesting word. Look up the meaning. I thought it was interesting. I mean, I don't know if it was on purpose or not, but they sold 32, which is obviously a meaningless. Who cares about that? That's. That's a tiny number in the grand scheme of things. But the point was to warm the market up and to start to change the narrative from. The narrative went from never sell to buy more than you sell, which is fine, but it's. It's. It's a narrative shift because the buy more than you sell. It depends on the duration. Is that buy more than you sell every week, every month? If it's buy more than you sell every five years, then strategy could sell 800,000 bitcoin this year and still have bought more than they sold over the last five years. But I don't think people would be super happy if they dumped 800,000 bitcoin. So it's the narrative. They did this to start to change the narrative a little bit, which, again, is fine. To be clear, they have to. They don't have a choice. They owe the money, so you have to pay the money. It is what it is. And, yeah, obviously, if they end up with millions of bitcoin and they only sold thousands of bitcoin, I would consider that an awesome trade. But the question is, you know, sure, buy more than you sell over what duration, though? Like, are there specifics to that guidance, or is it just general and the market needs to interpret their meaning on their own? But they did this little teaser test sell, and then today they announced that they did two things. One, they bought 1550 Bitcoin for a little over 100 million bucks, and then they also increased their dollar reserve by $100 million to a billion. And if you look on the right, you can see they did this entirely by issuing new stock, by selling common stock, raising the cash and performing what Saylor announced on the left. Now I will say, usually Saylor announces, and again, we're friends, it's not anything I wouldn't say to his face. Usually he announces the BTC yield metric or the BTC per share is a little convenient. He left it out on this one because this was dilutive. So the point, the only reason I'm saying this is because it goes back to the initial point, which is why did he do this? He did this for two reasons. One, he wants to show people he can still buy bitcoin and he can buy more than he sells. It's a signal to the market of telling everyone, shut up, you guys, shut the up. He added a hundred million dollars to the dollar reserve because he's trying to tell the market, I know why you're scared. You're scared because you don't think, I can come up with the money. I can come up with the money. Now how did he come up with the money? MSTR shareholders paid the price. So Stretch got a boost of confidence today because they added to their dollar reserve. Bitcoin got a boost of confidence because Saylor is buying more than he's selling. Who lost? MSTR shareholders lost. So again, you have these four classes of people. You have bitcoin debt, preferreds and common equity. And the question is, with such a complex capital structure, can everybody win in, especially in a bitcoin bear market? Because obviously there's one thing that can solve strategies problems right this second. If bitcoin rips to 200,000 and you see people online saying Saylor must be acting this way because he knows something that we don't. And maybe he does, I have no idea. He definitely knows. He's been in rooms that I've never been in. There's no doubt about that. So maybe he does. But people are saying that because they're trying to rationalize how they're, the company is building their balance sheet and building their capital structure. Because if you're not, if you are not confident bitcoin is going to go up to new all time highs like relatively soon, then you're going to have this overhang of a problem of every single week. You're going to owe money, a lot of money and someone in the capital structure is going to have to pay the price to like fulfill the obligation, obviously. And that's kind of, does that make sense? That's kind of this lay of the land and there's a bull case and a bear case. The bull case is bitcoin's going to rip soon. Who cares? I mean, there are MSTR shareholders that don't mind paying the price. I don't know. I don't know why. I don't know the logic there. Again, I don't own mstr. I mean, this is one of the reasons. I just don't. I don't want to carry this brunt, but people do and that's fine. And now obviously the bear case is what, like, why would you own MSTR has a lot of obligations to fulfill and it seems like it is the vehicle to raise the cash. Now there are people out there that are saying, why would you own bitcoin? If this company needs to raise so much money, they might sell the bitcoin. Now, I'm not worried about that. That's why my DCAs are on. I've survived many bear whales, as they say, many large sellers. Doesn't matter. Why would I own bitcoin? Because someone has to sell. Stupid question for me. And then there are other people saying, why would you own any of these preferreds? Clearly they're not scalable. They're going to fail at some point and you're going to be caught holding the bag. And so there's. It depends on who you ask and who you talk to. There are MSTR bulls, there are bears. Of the certain parts of the capital structure, I would say the best and safest place to be right now is owning the debt because you get, you get paid out first. It's really no way you can lose. But I don't know, it doesn't really yield you much. Zero coupon and you're converting at a premium. So they're way out of the money. So I don't know. Anyway, that's when people say, what's going on? Why are people talking about strategy? Why are. Why is the bitcoin market nervous about strategy? Why is the MSTR price reacting to what they're doing? Why is Stretch trading down? Hopefully that should answer your questions in again, the most unbiased way I possibly could. I'm going to have opinions. The Internet could agree or disagree with them. It is what it is. Now, again, I'll just reiterate. Every option that they have hurts somebody. So you sell more common stock. You're crushing the. You're diluting the shareholders of mstr. If you sell bitcoin, then you're spooking the market and you're creating this like really self defeating recursive loop that you know you're going to have to write cash. By selling bitcoin, you're no longer the never sell, you're selling more than you're, you're buying. And it really defeats this whole idea of bitcoin per share, which is the whole point of owning the equity in the first place. You can cut the dividend or you could just stop paying it, but then the preferreds are going to cut in half. There'll be lawsuits surely, because people were told it was a money market fund and access to the capital markets might shut down, which would be the worst because if you don't, if you can't monetize the equity by allowing people to invest and sell it and, and issue more debt, then the whole thing kind of just stops. So you kind of have to just pick. As long as bitcoin's not ripping. Now I'll say it again, I'm not predicting anything, I'm not saying anything's going to fail. I'm not bearish on anything. None of that. The thing that can fix everyone's problem here is bitcoin rips to 200k tomorrow. That would solve everything. Now if it doesn't, these are the options which, you know, just people should know that. And yeah, the other thing I will say, and I said this, you know, on Q and A before, is that this is all built on a lot of confidence. So if bitcoin goes way higher, everything is solved. You sell a little bit of bitcoin each year to cover the dividends, but as long as bitcoin, you know, goes up a predictable amount every single year, everything's good. But it requires a lot of belief, like, meaning, how much is Tesla worth? Is Tesla worth a thousand times earnings? Well, it is if that's what the market's willing to pay for it. It doesn't matter your opinion, it matters what the market is pricing it at. What is anything worth? What is this hat worth? This hat is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Any other answer is wrong. If someone wires me a billion dollars for this hat, guess what, it's worth a billion. If someone is only willing to pay me a dollar for the hat, guess what, it's only worth a dollar. And so what's Tesla worth? It's worth whatever someone's willing to pay for it. It's worth the last person that bought a share times the outstanding shares. That's what it's worth. And so the problem is it's, this is built on a lot of confidence. Like, does strategy have to trade above 1m NAV? No, it doesn't. Should it? I don't know. It depends on who you ask and how they view the world. But it doesn't have to. And like, does the market have to believe that Stretch should trade at $100? No, it doesn't. You know, so it's, it's an interesting, like, I guess my point is without a business that produces cash flow, you're kind of just relying on, well, you have to sell either bitcoin, you have to sell MSTR or you have to sell more preferreds. And if people right now are saying, well, the straight of hormones is closed or Hormuz is closed and there's an oil shock, so bitcoin's gonna have to sell off. There's a bunch of AI IPOs. So Bitcoin selling off MSTR is not going to trade above 1M NAV and stretch isn't going to be at 100. Well, like, then you're out of options. And that's kind of, that's kind of the issue, I guess, that the market is having. And the last thing I'll say is this idea of path dependence. So I tried to come up with analogy. You guys will let me know if it works. But what I came up with is, can I drive you? So I recently got a car, it's got a normal car. And can I give you a ride to your destination? Of course I can. Even if I had to stop at a gas station a hundred times, of course I'll give you a ride. But what if your destination is across an ocean? Well, then we'll drown. Because the whole point, the whole plan was I assumed that we'd stay on land. I don't have a plane. I have a car. And the point is, I want you guys to get familiar with this idea of path dependence. A path dependent model would assume that bitcoin goes up enough, consistently forever. But the problem is, what if you have to cross an ocean? What if it goes sideways for two years? What if MNAV starts behaving at a discount for whatever reason? What if there's a war? What if there's a liquidity crisis? What if there's three AI IPOs over the summer? Then what? And this is the idea of path dependence. And path dependence, when you're modeling out like I grew up in a house of traders, path dependence is very important because it's, you know, what am I assuming? A reliable path for the Trade. And it's like, can I, can I give you a ride? Yes. But I'm assuming we're on land and that my vehicle can get enough gas to get there. Right. If, if I have to cross an ocean, I have to, have to drive you to Africa, we're going to die. And so the question here is like, yes, bitcoin ripping tomorrow will solve these problems, but if it doesn't rip tomorrow, like, this is what we call path dependency, which is, you know, you hear these things all the time. Oh, bitcoin just has to go up 1% a year. Yeah. But if Bitcoin is flat for 10 years straight and then the 11th year goes up enough to make the average CAGR, in hindsight, 1%, I don't know if it works, you know, and I, again, I'm very bullish. Bitcoin, I don't think bitcoin is going to go sideways for 10 years. I don't think strategy is going to default. None of this. I, I'm not, I'm not making a prediction, but I'm trying to answer. You guys should see my dm, see the comment section here. It's obviously a hot topic in bitcoin. And you know, path dependency is something you need to keep in mind, even with risks that you're pricing in your own life. Should Google it if you want. Last thing I want to say real quick, the whole, like, it's like a money market fund thing, you know, I'm trying to stay as neutral as possible here. I gotta, I gotta say on this one, it's not. And we should stop pretending that we really should because I just think it's slightly dangerous. Listen, let me say something. I'm no stranger to marketing. I've caught myself on the wrong side of marketing too much before. Like, I am no, like, stranger to that. I've learned from it. I've matured through it. So just to be clear, building shit is hard. Building businesses is hard in certain contexts. I get it. You know, you got a public company, you're selling specifically to retail investors. It's not a money market fund. And I think now over the last few weeks, we can, we can move on from that, hopefully. So I pulled up cash and cash equivalents because people have said previously, like, why doesn't tether back there? Why doesn't tether back their stablecoin with these preferreds? Why doesn't Strike integrate these preferreds? Because they're not cash or cash equivalents. Cash, cash equivalents. According to Gap and FASB, like they mature in less than 90 days. Highly liquid, convertible to known amounts of cash, insignificant to risk of value change. So a T bill, commercial paper like the government will print the money. It doesn't matter. It doesn't mean that you're going to get the same purchasing power but you're never not going to get paid. Like it's not going to drop 7% in a week. The preferred equities, there's no maturity trades in an open market. So the price is, the price is what we call floating it. It's not stuck to anything. It floats. It can go down to 90, it can go down to zero. It does again, it doesn't mean it's bad, but we should not. Like for the bitcoin ethos, Bitcoin ethics, I find it similar to kind of the ethical question of if you see a woman on the street, get her purse grabbed by someone, what do you do? And like for me, how I was raised, I go try and help, I chase a guy down. I just find that to be the ethical thing to do. So I don't, I don't want people, you know, people dming me that are truck drivers people dming me, you know, just normal, you know, common man jobs that are like, hey, can you explain this stuff on your show? I personally would not think of it like a money market fund. It is not. The risk free rate is not, it's not to me. You guys want my opinion? That's my opinion. And here's the definition of cash and cash equivalents. And this is why tether doesn't. Can you imagine if tether backed their stablecoin with stretch over the last week? I mean there'd be a run on the bank, it'd be not good. So that's why doesn't mean again, doesn't mean stretch is bad. Just it's not a money market fund. It's definitely not that. Okay, the last thing real quick, I decided not to make a slide out of it but I do want to say something. Real quick. So I here, I have this in my notes. I was writing, I have a whole document and I made slides. I left this out on purpose but I want to include it now because there's one last thing. I see people tweeting at me saying, oh well, strategies at a 1.2 mnav so they can sell as many shares as they want above one and it's accretive. And that's not true. Again, I'm not saying they shouldn't. They should do whatever they want. They have to come up with the money somehow either got to sell mstr, sell Bitcoin, or suspend the dividends and let the stretch holders die off. So whatever, they'll make their decisions. The math that I feel responsible in telling you guys is yes, above 1m nav means that the new shares are accretive on a per share nav today. That's true. However, it ignores that new shares are also inheriting a permanent share of the $2 billion a year of prep dividend payments that they need to make. So what we call that is, we call that a drag. That drag has a cost. So the real accretion line is probably somewhere around 1.25. So said another way, mnav above 1 is accretive on a snapshot basis, but the preferreds charge over 3% of a perpetual tax on every bitcoin in the pile. So the real accretion line is probably 25% or so above the 1.0. Does that make sense? So I just like, I. I would feel irresponsible not answering these questions. So the real accretion versus dilutive number is not 1.0. I mean, the market cap today is 45 billion and the Bitcoin's worth 53 billion. And so obviously just the traditional market cap versus the Bitcoin is trading at a discount. But even if you try and do fancy math, to make the M Nav something besides just market cap over Bitcoin, you have to include the drag that the preferreds have on the stock and that pushes the actual accretive versus dilutive line much higher than 1.0. And so you guys should know that you can ask questions if you want, but when people tweet at me and say, I don't understand what you're saying, Jack, the, the M nav's at 1.2. And I've been told anything above one is, is accretive. Not when you have a drag where every new share is inheriting a bunch of future obligations. Okay, tried my best there. Really, really nervous to log on Twitter after this one. Surely going to get my butt kicked. Hey, I'll say this at least. The thing I got my ass kicked for is I said, sailor used to be raising these convertible debt instruments at zero coupon and now he's paying 11 and a half percent. And the whole, you know, Internet was like, fuck you. You don't understand any of this stuff. Guys, I've raised a half a billion dollar convert. I run the company that has the second largest corporate holdings in the world. I specifically Instructed my business and my board not to do this strategy because I think it's. It's potentially dangerous. So I do know what I'm talking about. Okay? It wasn't my fight to fight on the Internet that day. It is what it is. But now, after this presentation, do you guys understand why I said what I said? Raising a zero coupon convertible bond is very different than an 11.5% perpetual preferred. It just makes things a little more complex. It doesn't mean it can't work. It just makes it a little bit more complex. So we'll see what the Internet has to say. Probably not nice things, but whatever free speech, it is what it is. If I'm wrong, I'll put my hand up and I'll admit it. Strike. What the hell? Damn it. My slides didn't produce correctly. Let me. Hold on, let me pull up some of this stuff here. Okay, so strike what we shipped last week. So we do this thing where every single Monday we tweet what we shipped last week. So one anti phishing code. So a lot of our customers are you. There are phishing attempts on them, especially through email. So when we send you an email now, it will come with a code and you can check your app, on your account, in your settings, and see that the code matches. And so that's how you can verify that the email or the communication came from us. You can also reference this code when you're on the phone with us. So this is a security feature for us to make sure that you're safe. And we're very proud of it. We have a new team internally at Strike called the Trust Team. They've been absolutely killing it. The leaders of that team, I'm so happy they're at the company and we're starting to ship some features that at the end of the day, our top priority is keeping you guys safe and making sure that your bitcoin journey lasts as long as you want it to. And that means that you have access to education, protection, security. So we're going to increasingly launch features that keep you safe. Very happy about this one. If you have questions about it and you have feedback on it, let us know. But huge leap to make sure that you know when we are talking to you and when you're talking to us, you can always confirm with us and say, hey, this is my code, or you tell me what the code is and. And we'll be able to confirm that our dashboard continues to get better. So on the dashboard, you can now check your activity. We now have target orders. So everyone wants to use Strike on desktop. You can dashboard Strike me, go in, log on, see all the features you have access to. We'll continue to make that better. We have our new iOS Quick Action by Bitcoin. So as part of the Strike app and icon and widget, quicker access to buy Bitcoin. And then we continue to lower minimums for states in the United States for lending. So both Wisconsin and Minnesota got lower minimums. That's everything that we shipped just last week. We continue to absolutely ship our cojones off. We also launched something called limits 4.0, that's what we call it internally. So we constantly iterate on limits. I'm not going to share too much detail on that because some of that's proprietary information. But we shipped a new limit system. I think limits are one of the most important features for any bitcoin financial service is, hey, when does my money settle? When can I withdraw my bitcoin? How much can I buy at once? It's unfortunately complicated because the US banking system sucks. When you guys send me dollars, sometimes it doesn't settle immediately. And so one risk I have to engineer against is someone sends me dollars, I let them buy bitcoin and withdraw it and then they reverse the payment and I don't get the money for the bitcoin. They stole my bitcoin and I'm out of money. I let that happen too much. I'm out of business. And so it's very complicated engineering and data science to figure out, well, who's a good user, who's a bad user, what should their limits be? Obviously, if we make your limits, like $1,000 a week, I mean, we can't service bitcoiners all over the world. What if you want to buy one? Bitcoins could take you more than a year to get it off the platform. What the fuck, Buck? And so we work really hard on our limit system. We shipped a brand new version of it, which not only should give you better limits, but also more transparency into how they work in ways so that you can figure out what to expect. It should be really useful. So check that out as well. You're not going to see as much like tweeting about it and stuff because again, it's more proprietary data stuff. Like there's not that much. What, what can I say? We launched new Limits. That's as much as I can tell you. But anyway, I don't know the ride or dies. The people that support me the most are on here. So check that out. And then these are some of the bigger ones that we got coming up real soon. So volatility proof loans, these are the loans you can get that will never liquidate. Now there's a caveat. If you never pay us back, eventually we do have to confiscate the bitcoin. But the point is, whatever we need, maybe better branding, WIC protection, you know, there's no liquidation clause where like if the bitcoin price crashes down, there is no liquidation. You pay a slightly higher cost for this loan and we use that slightly higher cost to put on hedges to make sure that liquidation is not even an option for you. And so I think this would be such a cool thing to get out in the bear market. I think this could launch as soon as next week, hopefully this month. We've been really iterating and testing this one. We're very happy with it. It will be in the app. Everyone that has access to lending will have access to it. Very, very, very exciting. Our interest on cash, you guys have wanted this forever. We're finally getting close to releasing this to you guys so that your cash balance on strike will not only be giving you interest, but interest paid out in bitcoin. And then stacks is another one that's coming in hopefully the second half of this year, which is sub accounts within Strike. So if you want an account designated just for your kids or for your wife or for your savings, a lot of feature requests so that you can organize different piles of money inside of Strike, that's coming as well. So this is gonna be very exciting time for Strike. You know, we as a business, we've been very resilient to the bear market. We continue to grow. I'm very happy with the performance of the company, you guys all supporting us as customers. The performance of my employees, just absolutely knocking it out of the park. And we pride ourselves on proof of work, velocity of shipping, work ethic. I'm just really proud of, I don't know, being part of this thing. It's a special place, man. Like you get to know other companies and not talking shit, but I don't know if anyone ships as much as we do and works as hard as we do. And as ambitious as we are, it's a really special place in a special group. So it's fun to ship you guys software and see the reaction. It's also fun to have you guys tell us what you need. And we just have an uncanny ability to just build it like quick and great and design it beautifully and support staff is so knowledgeable and 247 around the globe to make sure we're getting back to you quickly. So really proud. And then for 21, listen, I think the conversation today will hopefully give you guys some insights into why we are working on what we're working on. I think having productive cash flow as a company is really important to being able to accrue leverage and afford these payments without dilution or afford these payments without selling bitcoin. So now can you imagine if strategy said, hey, we actually have a business that makes $2 billion a year, so we could pay all these dividends without needing to do any of these options. I think their stock would go up 50% in a day. So obviously it's easier said than done. We continue to work on it. I get the frustration, but that's why we want to be different. We don't at the moment. And we're watching strategy, we're watching all these other companies and of course, if they figure out something that I haven't figured out yet, I'm all in on it. And we'll work on the preferreds. We've got a huge stack of bitcoin and really, really deep pocketed partners in tether. But with that being said, it's unclear to me what I just went through, like how this will all shake out. Who knows? Not saying it'll be bad. I'm not saying it'll be good. I'm saying I don't know. And so we're going to continue to stand up these operating businesses with the goal of cash flow and growth and an ability to both acquire a lot of bitcoin with what we would consider healthy leverage and scale. Businesses that have cash flow and the combination of the two, I think would be unique. I think the market would be interested in that. So we'll see. Okay, what questions you guys have for me. I'm sure there's some. And then I'll try and keep it. Not short, but not long because I have to catch a flight. Let's see. Let me blow this up. Let me open Dylan's. Let's see. Dylan, how nervous should I be to log into Twitter after this? I tried to be as neutral as I possibly could, guys. I really, genuinely, from the bottom of my heart, I have no incentive for anyone to blow up. I own bitcoin. I care about bitcoin. I want everyone working on bitcoin to be successful and help bitcoin. Please spare me while I'm on my flight. Doom scrolling. Okay, at what point do you worry about microstrategy having too much bitcoin. Like, is there a point at which they're sort of ruining bitcoin by being overly greedy with it? I don't care about how much bitcoin anyone has strategy, the US Government, Russia, I don't care. Listen, bitcoin finds a home where it's treated best. You know, if someone needs to sell it because they're too levered or something, it's going to find a buyer that wants to put it on ice and hold it forever. So I'm not worried about that. People used to ask me all the time, like, what if Satoshi sold all of his coins tomorrow? What would you do? Buy them? I don't know. What if he crashed the price to 3,000? I would log on to strike and I would buy all the bitcoins I could at 3,000. That's what I would do. And then all, all prices is a function of supply and demand. And so if there's not a lot of demand for Bitcoin at 3,000, well, then the price is going to be 3,000. But if there's a lot more demand than there are people willing to sell Bitcoin at 3000, well then the price is going to go back to 63,000. Super fucking simple. And I have a really low time preference. So do I worry that someone can own a lot of bitcoin and potentially sell it? No, I don't care. I'm a buyer of whoever. I buy bitcoin every day and I work hard to try and produce more cash flow and more productive profit so that buying can increase, so that I try and be more valuable to the world on net, so that I have cash to have more of an influence on the future that I want to see whether that's buying bitcoin, hiring people, getting certain licenses. So it doesn't concern me. And then the other thing that you guys should understand is structurally, the way bitcoin is designed, it doesn't matter how much bitcoin you have, you get the same rules as everybody else. So Michael Saylor's node and my node and your node and Donald Trump's node and the bakery down the streets node all runs the same consensus rules. So no one has an advantage at the protocol level. The protocol doesn't give a. It has no idea how much bitcoin you have. It doesn't give a. How would it know who owns what private keys? Has no idea, doesn't give a. So we all have the same rules. And so from that standpoint, who cares? You can own as much or as little as you want, even playing field for everybody. And then in regards of like can someone sell a bunch and quote unquote crash the price? Sure, sure. And then we'll all buy them and then the price will go back up. I've seen it happen a million times, no problem. And those that benefit from those moments are those that are responsible, earn more than they spend, aren't too levered, cash flow positive liquid when others aren't. No problem. Eventually by the way we call it, the market matures. So things like the ETFs and BlackRock, you're bringing really mature market participants that help stabilize markets and give it the liquidity that it needs. I don't think bitcoin like we saw, I think it was last summer we saw someone sell 80,000 bitcoin in a day and the price didn't move. That would be 10. If Saylor came out and said I'm selling 10% of my stack. I think the world would freak out. But mind you, someone sold 10% of strategy stack in a day and the price didn't move. So I'm just really not, I really just don't think it matters. Will there be self custody bitcoin backed loans in the space at some point? I doubt it because here's the problem. The point of bitcoin backed loans is they're collateralized. Like you give me the best collateral humans have ever come up with. It was liquid property on a Sunday night. I can sell a percentage of it. By the way. Little plug strike, our bitcoin backed loans, we, our liquidation policy is we will only liquidate a little tiny amount to get you back in good standing. Most other companies just sell all your bitcoin and blow the whole thing out. And so the way strike works is you give us the best collateral ever. If the markets go down and we absolutely have to sell a tiny sliver to get you back into good standing. I can do that on a Sunday night. There's no risk. 24, 7, totally liquid in all the currencies we want to support. No problems. But the point is you give it to me so that I feel safe enough to give you a million dollars or $10 million or $100 million or a billion dollars if you say hey Jack, give me a billion dollars and I say cool, give me the bitcoin, you're like nah, I'm gonna keep that too. Well then what the fuck? What if you just never pay me back? You just run away with my money? And so, you know, like, what guarantees do I have now? That's, you know, like, that's just credit. That's uncollateralized lending. I don't, I'm not in that business. That's basically when I have to scan your eyeball, figure out where you went to college, who you're married to, where you live, who your parents were. And then I make a risk based, you know, how much money can I lend this guy because of his credit score? And like, can he pay me back or not? Fuck that shit. That's stupid. Anyone can download my app, deposit the Bitcoin, and we're working on, you put it, we'll put it in an address for you where you can see it. And we will never liquidate it. And now we have proof of reserves that we publish for our lending product. And like, we don't do any. There's no funny business. The whole point is this is a better lending product because there's no credit checks. Anybody can use it any amount. Like, you guys want $1 billion loan, I can get you $1 billion, but you got to give me the collateral. If you don't give me the collateral, then, and my best guess is if someone said, I'll launch a product where you get to keep the collateral and you get all the money, I'm sure they'd get a lot of adoption immediately and then they'd go out of business because no one would give them the money back. And then they'd fail as a company. So that's kind of the problem. It's not that I want to hold your guys Bitcoin, but I have to in order to give you a loan. It's kind of like how it works, unfortunately. It's like, give me a Heloc, but you don't have the the right over my house. It's like, well, I mean, good luck. Okay, strike questions. Wow. Were there really no other strategy questions, you guys? Well, maybe Dylan's acting as a filter, but did I make that much sense? Maybe I did. Who knows? Okay, strike questions. Are we gonna get a debit card for our strike accounts? Twould be nice. Would be nice. We continue to think about it. Not a yes, not a no. Internally, there's a lot of momentum to get some card product because you guys keep asking for it. And we kind of have a culture of we're not right. You're right. We work for you guys. So you want a card, you get a card. The problem has always been, why would we be better at giving you A card than like Amex or Chase. We're a bitcoin company. They're going to probably have better rewards for you. Better card their fiat company. So why would you want a card from us? But you know, we continue to research it and try and, you know, provide answers to ourselves to justify it. So we're looking into it for sure. Hey, Jack, is there any ETA on a bitcoin line of credit for individual retailers being available in the state of Washington? I would really love to start when bitcoin is below 200 EMA. I get that we are very close to getting that license. We need Washington legal. So I'm reading sometimes the team. Not sometimes, most of the time. Manuela, the president of the company who leads our products, she writes in answers to help me answer these as accurate as I can. And she says, we think we're a few weeks away. Take that for what it's worth. Guessing these things is hard. I don't like being wrong there and letting you guys down. But the team thinks we're a few weeks away, which is. That sounds exciting. Hello, Jack. Please give some news about being in Canada, especially Alberta. Thanks. We are working on Canada. We, we have hired a little while ago, actually our head of Canada. We're going through the whole process. It's an intense one. Canada is no joke. The amount of licenses and regulation is legit, but we're actively working on Canada. I was actually in Strike Canada meeting on Friday of last week. I think it was. No, two Fridays ago. Two Fridays ago. I don't know, whatever recently felt like yesterday. Yeah. Manuela wrote here we have a country manager. We're going through all the work to set expectations. It's probably not until 2027, but over my dead body we will be in Canada. I promise you. That is hard. There's not a lot of company bitcoin companies of our size and scale that can operate in Canada. But we are going to do it. We are. Let me say something else. It's hard to just stay focused on bitcoin. Don't get distracted and have the money and the production and the growth to just do the simple things, lower the time preference and let things play out. Because usually people get into altcoins and prediction markets and start selling stocks on the platform and they. Things get complicated and it's distracting. You're like, how is there no simple bitcoin global bank yet? Like, how is that possible? It's like, well, because people get distracted and they start working on all sorts of crazy and they come up with their own blockchain. We one by one just apply for the licenses, hire the right people, talk to our customers. It's not very sexy. It doesn't make all the headlines. We don't have a big enough as big of a TAM as Coinbase. But that's why I started this thing is we're going to do it. We're just going to be a simple, reliable, global bitcoin company. Best user experience, best features, best pricing. So we will every license, hopefully before I die, we will get that so that I can serve all you guys. Can we get a more dynamic way to pay down our line of credit? Something like a smart loc that your model outlined at the launch? Yeah, I love these ideas. If you, if you guys have these use cases, DM me. DM the strike Twitter account. The product team reads the strike Twitter account like is shared with the product team. So we can see you guys and what you want, let us know. Like if you have a use case where you want to split off like a certain percentage of your paycheck or you want my model that I outlined at launch to be specifically implemented. If there's enough demand for something, we build it. That's just how it works. Pretty much everything you guys ask for gets written down somewhere. But the problem is, and the hard part about building is what do you build first? Right? Like, how does priority work? You can't build everything for everyone. And so if there's enough demand and it's clear and makes sense, then we'll build it. Yeah. Okay. Other questions. Spurs are Knicks? I. I don't know. I mean, I will say this. I wouldn't mind either. You know, I used. It used to pain me watching LeBron in the Finals because I did not want to see LeBron win rings. He bothered me. So. I'm just glad that either team. I wouldn't mind Brunson holding up the Larry o', Brien, but I personally would. I want Wemby to get it. Personally, I love the emotion. I love the way that this team plays the game. This New York fans bother all of us. And this team is a little annoying. I don't know. It's. It's hard. It's hard as like a. I grew up playing basketball. I joke all the time that Satoshi made me 5, 8, 150, 160 pounds. Or, or else. I. If I was six' four, I'd be in the NBA. I wouldn't be working on bitcoin. So it's hard. Like Carl Anthony Towns, Mikhail Bridges like these guys, you know, the spurs are much more fundamental, fun basketball. I think Wemby would make for a great face of the league. The way he plays, watching him draw his caricatures in the. In Times Square, whatever the he's. He's going and following, focusing on his mental health with Monks. So on the off season. So I hope the spurs take two back in the Garden and this series goes, you know, five, six, seven. That'd be fun. But hey, at least we're not watching LeBron's Miami Heat teams. Jack, is there a steakhouse that you go to in Vegas? Not really. Manuela wrote here that she likes Golden Steer, and I like Manuela. I trust Manuela. So let's go with Golden Steer. When I'm in Vegas, you guys know how I feel about Vegas. I think Vegas is Fiat capital of the world. I don't like Vegas. I go to Vegas for business if I have to. And so when I'm there, I'm always holed up in my hotel room working on my slides, trying to, like, not, you know, spend time around gambling junkies and strippers and all stupid, disgusting shit. So I haven't really, like, spent time going to different restaurants. Dylan. Dylan gets reservations at really cool places, and they're all good. I mean, there's a ton of money invested in Vegas, so it's all. None of it tastes bad. At least the places Dylan takes me. But off the top of my head, I wouldn't even be able to tell you what. Oh, that's not true. My favorite place in Vegas is Delilah's. That's not true. I like Delilah's, but it's just fun. Like, I got a table next to the live performers. The food was good. I don't know, whatever. Fuck that place. Did I get a Tesla with full self driving? I did. I did do that. So my analogy of I can give you guys a ride as long as my car can get enough gas. My car actually doesn't need gas. That was just for the analogy. I got a Tesla. My. So my fiance. I never wanted a car. My fiance. When she moved in here, we realized we needed a car. She really wanted one. And I get it. I mean, she's whatever needs errands to run. It's cold. I don't want her running around on her own. She needed a car and we looked around like she wanted a classic Jeep. We looked at a few car dealerships, but then the, like, engineer in me, just functional, practical. I was like, there's a car on the market where Because I already know she's going to wake me up on a Sunday morning like, you got to go fill up the tank. Like, fuck this. And I already know I don't want to be short oil like you guys listen to this show. I'm too smart to be short oil. Short oil means I need gas in perpetuity. And so I was like, okay, there's a car where I can install a charger. I plug it in at night like my phone, and it drives itself. So if I need to go. I was just at Lake Geneva this last weekend for family birthday event. That's like a two hour drive. And I pick up Dylan. I didn't have to drive. I'm sitting there as if I'm in the passenger seat. The car drives me two hours, makes a dent in its battery, barely a blip, no problem. So I don't even remember the last time I drove this car. I get in, I put in the address, I hit self drive and I listen to bitcoin podcasts. I have the AI hooked into it. So I talk to Grok about Austrian economics or the market or the latest, whatever. So I'm talking to AI, I'm listening to podcasts. I don't even have to drive it and I don't need oil. So the Tesla, my fiance and I love it. It's great. So yeah, I have self driving. I got, we, we got all the features. I don't know, I didn't have enough time to research all Elon's up to. So we were like, whatever, if Elon built a feature, we'll take it. Hopefully we don't get scammed. And it's a great car. Worked out for me. I hate driving, so I get to just put in like she's gonna take me to the airport after this. I'm just gonna put in o' Hare and hit drive and we'll hang out, chat and listen to some music and no one has to drive. Pretty cool. What is my chess rating? So I haven't played a regulated chess tournament in a long time. So my USCF rating, United States Chess Federation rating, I don't know the top of my head, probably around 2000. But my online rating, I play a lot of bullet and a lot of blitz. I'm. I'm probably like 2500@Chess.com Leechess My leechess rating is a little higher than my Chess.com, but I think on Chess.com I'm 2500. So I'm decent. I'm decent, but I don't I don't study anymore. My opening theory's gotten worse. So, like, when I'm playing bullet against GMS and stuff, like, I'm beating GMS and ims all the time, I'm obviously losing, but I'm playing Knight F3. I'm playing the King's Indian no matter what, because then I don't have to, you know, if I. In a bullet game, I can't get into complex Sicilians anymore because I just don't have the time to spend on opening theory. So I don't know how I would do in a regulated tournament nowadays. If I got to play in, like, the 1500 division, I'm sure I'd mop the floor. But, you know, to say that I'm playing GMs and IMs every day in blitz online, thinking that I can go, people are like, oh, do you think you have a chance against Magnus? Like, no. Magnus would beat me a million out of a million times. If we played a million games, it would never be close. So don't. Don't take my 2500 rating as me that I could compete in, you know, the candidates, but online blitz between meetings. I can hang in there. I can hang in there. All right, well, that's all the questions Dylan gave me. If you guys asked a question and I didn't answer it, don't say I'm avoiding it. Blame it on Dylan. Story of my life. Blame it on Dylan. That's all I got. I got to get to the airport. I'm really excited about my keynote in Prague. Again. It'll be about the art renaissance. I think AI and bitcoin are going to do tremendous things for us. Last year, my speech was a little more. It wasn't sad, it was just real. It was about how Fiat has been destroying us. In my generation, seeing drug overdose rise in metabolic disease, a lowering of life expectancy in certain areas of the country, and it was just real. And there are people crying in the audience. It was a very emotional moment. And now we're at the bottom. We're at the bear market prices down, sentiment, consumer sentiment's never been lower. I'm not going to get up there and make people cry. Not going to do that. I'm going to do the opposite. So I really do think that as humans, we engineer a better world. That's our story. And the combination of AI and Bitcoin is tremendously exciting. And there's some data that I use to draw the world today and just what's wrong with it? And how these technologies relieve us of the problems it's created. And I think an art renaissance is on the other side. So that's Saturday. Really looking forward to. To doing that and seeing a lot of you all out in Prague. If you see me, don't be shy. Come say hi. I love talking to you guys. And with that, I'll take. Talk to you later. Peace and love. Hello. Bitcoin treasury company. Folks, take it easy on me.
Title: Bitcoin Selloff Explained: Capital Rotation & Strategy Deep Dive
Host: Jack Mallers
Date: June 9, 2026
In a packed Mailbag Monday episode, Jack Mallers offers a timely and nuanced breakdown of the recent Bitcoin selloff, focusing on the drivers of capital rotation, macroeconomic context, and a deep dive into MicroStrategy’s controversial financing strategy. Jack also touches on broader market realities (the ongoing conflict in Iran, global oil shocks), comments on recent ETF outflows, explains his outlook on altcoins (with the Zcash incident as a case study), and gives candid insights into how different players in the capital stack are affected when markets stall.
Jack’s tone is direct, occasionally irreverent, mixing trader’s realism with encouragement for long-term conviction, and remains accessible to an audience ranging from retail to more financially literate listeners.
[06:00–19:00]
Strait of Hormuz & Iran conflict:
The ongoing closure has persisted much longer than the public or mainstream expected, creating sustained disruptions in 20% of the global oil market and ripple effects throughout global supply chains.
“Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed? Yes, it is... Conflict still ongoing? Yes. Supply chains still being disrupted? Yes. Can global debt survive this? No. None of these answers have changed.”
(Jack, 07:45)
Strategic Reserves:
US and companies are “bleeding” their oil reserves. This is artificially holding oil prices down, but once those reserves deplete, true price of oil could spike, potentially $200/barrel or more—likely leading to recessionary demand destruction and/or policy intervention.
Bitcoin as "Smoke Alarm" for Liquidity:
Jack argues Bitcoin remains the “last functioning free market,” with price action reliably signaling stress in the financial system, especially during major liquidity events:
“Bitcoin tends to lead because it's the only... last functioning smoke alarm of fiat liquidity. When Bitcoin moves violently, it's probably telling you something.”
(Jack, 10:30)
Advice for Listeners:
[19:00–34:00]
ETF Outflows:
Four consecutive weeks of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs (notably BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity, Grayscale).
“Spot Bitcoin ETF see $1.7 billion in outflows, extending the redemption streak to four weeks. More sellers than buyers.” (Jack, quoting @MacroScope, 21:30)
Driving Factors:
Not Replacement, but Rotation:
These are not permanent reallocations. Once IPO excitement fades or capital needs shift, flows could reverse.
[34:00–42:00]
Compounding Shocks:
A confluence:
Two Policy Paths:
[42:00–52:00]
Zcash Hit by AI-Discovered Bug:
Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 found a severe inflation bug; Zcash plummeted 50% in one day. Jack uses this to reinforce skepticism toward altcoins:
‘Arbitrage on the Trend’:
Many altcoins exploit regulatory and informational arbitrage, offering little real innovation.
[52:00–1:42:00]
[1:42:00–End]
On MicroStrategy’s ‘risk’ to Bitcoin:
“If Satoshi sold all his coins tomorrow and crashed the price to $3,000, I’d just buy them.” (1:45:00)
Self-custodied Bitcoin loans?
Strike product updates:
Company vision:
Lighthearted Q&A:
On capital structure complexity (MicroStrategy):
“A perpetual preferred… is a subscription you sign up for: you pay a fixed dividend twice a month, forever. It never matures. You can never cancel it.” (01:03:00)
Advice for downturns:
“There’s a form of leverage that is dangerous in bitcoin, which is relying on Bitcoin to be happy. That’s not financial leverage, but it is dangerous.” (14:10)
On Zcash & altcoins:
“There is no faster bitcoin. There is no privacy bitcoin. These things are dangerous. The bitcoin community decided not to do these things for a reason.” (49:20)
Cutting through the noise:
“What is anything worth? … It is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Any other answer is wrong.” (1:33:20)
Jack stays accessible without dumbing things down, balancing technical breakdowns (especially in the MicroStrategy segment) with practical, relatable advice (“stack sats, get outside, lift heavy”). His delivery is candid, occasionally spicy (“It’s not a money market fund, stop pretending”), but transparently grounded in personal and professional experience. The episode wraps with gratitude for the Bitcoin community and a preview of his soon-to-be-given keynote: “How Bitcoin and AI can create a new renaissance for humanity.”
“Be productive, stack sats, focus on what you control. Conviction will pay dividends. This is hard, but that’s just Bitcoin.”
(Jack’s recurring advice throughout)
For a tactical education on why Bitcoin is dropping, what’s really driving ETF flows, and what the MicroStrategy drama means for each class of stakeholder, this episode is a must-listen—or else this summary’s your shortcut.