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Yo, welcome back. How are you guys? What's going on? You are listening to the Jack Maller Show. I am your host, Jack, and this is yet another edition of Mail bag Monday, episode 125. Today's episode is titled The Feds Bluff the AI Bubble and the Bitcoin Bottom. I'll follow up on my claim that I think Fed hawkishness is noise and misleading, arguably intentionally. We'll talk about some kinks in the armor of the AI bubble, some recent updates that are giving weakness to things like the NASDAQ, the MAG7, some of the AI narrative, and on top of that, pull on the bitcoin bottom thread a little bit. How are we doing? What are some of the metrics that I typically look at as bitcoin bottoms? We get a little bit of a price pump. Everyone's euphoric online. I mean we're sitting at 64k but we'll take a look at all that. And then obviously I don't have a strategy sailor section in here. I already told you guys. Not really going to make that a mainstay. If you want me to talk about it, obviously they sold some bitcoin today or they did last week and they announced it today. If you have questions about that, if you want some thoughts, leave, leave it in the live chat and Dylan can make sure that I address it. If not though, I don't have anything planned, just an FYI. So it's up to you guys if I talked about it or not. With that being said, let's time stamp this so that we can get into is July 6, 503pm Central Time and I'm talking to you all at a Bitcoin price of 64, 350 US dollars. That puts Bitcoin's market cap at 1.29 trillion US dollars. Our all time high sits at $126,160. We are 49% down from that all time high made on October 6, 2025, 273 days ago. The last bitcoin block mined since I hit stream was block height 950 6952. Okay, without further ado, let's get into this episode. I will have to end it before the World Cup US game kicks off. You all know that I'll get into the World cup later on in this episode, believe it or not, bitcoin show. But is it really? So we've got call it an hour and a half today as always, for the last month or so now, maybe longer, we Kick off every single episode with. Before you waste time, answer these first. In regards to the US Iran conflict, we're not going to chase politicians and their headlines. We are going to try and stick to the facts. So question one, is the straight of Hormuz still closed? Question two, is the conflict still ongoing? Question three, are global supply chains still disrupted? Question four, can global debt survive this disruption? Until these are answered, the political noise is irrelevant. Irrelevant. So is the conflict still ongoing? I found this headline from Axios, Laugh out Loud funny. US in Iran to take a week off from talks. So is the conflict ongoing? Not only is it ongoing, it's on lunch break. It's on lunch break. We'll pick it back up when everyone's full. When everyone's back from the beach. So we're still in this 60 day, mind you, keeping up with hiatus ceasefires. We agreed to hopefully agree on agreeing to agree. It's hard to keep up with. I think we're still in a 60 day ceasefire window. Okay. Between the US and Iran. That hasn't stopped Israel, I guess. I don't know, I'm, I'm telling you guys, I'm not wasting my time here. But is the conflict still ongoing? So seemingly so. But we're on lunch break. It looks like we're taking a week off from talking. Everyone was running their mouth so much and typing so many headlines that we needed a break. In regards to the straight of Hormuz, this chart to me was interesting. So for those listening, what's on the screen is the straight of Hormuz crossings is in white and the two year forward crude oil prices is in yellow and you can see the yellow line coming down. So oil getting cheaper again as the crossings through the straight of Hormuz in white increases. Now we were since the beginning of March at 0, effectively crosses through the Strait of Hormuz. We are now. We got up to 20, but now we're trending back down. The live print as of yesterday was 12, so we went from 0 to 12. We when a normal day was around 60 to 80. Okay, so is the straight or Hormuz back to functioning normally and open? I think it'd be a lie to say it is. Now. Are we in a better spot than we were in March? Sure. Oil, the US and we've talked about this on the show, the US has gone out of its way to try and get oil prices down. Depletion of the strategic Petroleum reserves. Depletion of reserves all over the world. Doesn't matter where you are and who you are, depletion of reserves. I mean, Trump came out today and said he sat down with Walmart and got them to lower their pricing on beef. I mean, the attempt at curbing inflation and the attempt at suppressing oil prices has been immense. And so the two year forward of crude oil is coming down with the expectation that the strait will open. I continue to believe that everything Warsh is saying, everything Trump has been saying, where inflation sits, the overall mathematics of fiscal dominance and the sovereign debt pending crisis. This Iran conflict cannot last much longer. I think the US Is really trying to find a way. I mean, the last rumors we heard is that Trump was willing to settle with Iran a payment number that was far larger than what the Obama administration gave. So the level of concessions that the US Seemingly is okay to make as long as I don't. You know, obviously the latest rhetoric from Trump is no, no nuclear weapon. No nuclear weapon whatever. Now I'm already veering too far into politics. I already can. I can see my YouTube comment section right now. I don't know, but is the Hormuz straight of Hormuz open? Not really more than it was in March, but a lot less than it was before this all started. And is the conflict over? No, in fact, it's on lunch break. So we move on. We're not going to waste any more time. We will check back in next week. But that's enough conflict war politicking for this show. So with that chapter one, stay humble and stack sats. And that's the title, the subtitle of the chapter, don't believe the Fed's bullshit and don't let this market where you down for context. Last episode, and maybe even the episode before that. War. Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair, has come out and has been perceived to be a hawk, which means tightening monetary policy that, you know, for risk assets, for things like Bitcoin that could be perceived to be bearish. It's basically saying, I'm not opposed to hiking rates. I got to fight this inflation thing because the conflict in Iran, because of blah, blah, blah, inflation is here and everyone thinks I'm gonna slash rates. Cause that's what Trump wants and I was Trump's puppet. But I'm not gonna do that. I'm gonna hike rates. And the market started to price in rate hikes. And as I talked about last episode, we've seen some strengthening to the dollar. Now I'm on record calling bullshit. I do not think they will hike rates. In fact, I think they will justify cutting rates. I think the market is weak way too over their skis into pricing in rate hikes. Now that is my opinion. I'm wrong all the time. But I'm on the record. I wanted to follow up this week because I'm even more convinced after seeing more data. So my stay humble and stack sats. The message here is don't let these guys scare you out of your position. Don't let these guys wear you out of your position. Summers for bitcoin typically are grueling and hard in a bear market because a lot of money, I mean a lot of money right now is at the World Cup. A lot of money right now. Trump is focusing on reversing red cards as opposed to reversing the Iran conflict. Iran conflict's taking a week off. Trump is at the World Cup. A lot of money is on vacation right now. So you know that's the sell in May go away rhetoric, right? Is that sell in May come back in the fall. That's when midterms and markets will heat up again. And, and so these summers can feel grueling. They can wear you down. You've got the Fed chair claiming he's a hawk. There's no way. And so stay humble and stack sats continues to be my message. So slide one. I still don't believe this war guy. I I call bullshit on the Fed. I thought this tweet storm from Jeffrey here summed up my thoughts rather eloquently, so I will read it. These are he tweeted a little thread and I patch it together here on the slide. But we've got a lot of podcast listeners that aren't always looking at the YouTube stream. So let me read this aloud. So why is Warsh telling a charade to the market, making people believe he will raise rates while he can't in fiscal dominance Unless he wants more inflation. Remember, higher rates causes higher inflation in fiscal dominance. Follow the logic and bear with me. Do not be fooled. In fiscal dominance, you produce higher inflation via an increased interest burden which needs to be further monetized. Remember the Reserve's management policy in December of 2025, it's fiscal deficit monetization, more interest burden, more monetization which equals more inflation. I'm going to pause for a second. Now we're entering Jack commentary. This is correct. Now people will say, oh well, we raised rates 20 years ago, 30 years ago, 40 years ago, 50 years ago. Yeah, but our debt to GDP wasn't 130%. We didn't have $40 trillion worth of debt. You guys have to remember, the person that eats dust the most when rates are raised is the US government. Because who's the most in debt? Who carries a 40 trillion dollar bill? The US government. So when they raise rates, you know who it hurts the most? The government. And so the only way the government can actually get away with this level of debt burden, we don't have the revenue and the cash flow to pay off not only the debt, but the mere interest. So how do we get away with it? We monetize the debt. Monetization of the debt is highly inflationary. So the whole point, and I've talked about this on the show since I started the show, is we're in an era of fiscal dominance. The Fed matters far less. Unless the Fed is willing to crash Pax Americana. In the Western world as we know it, this Modern Day West Post 1971Fati regime is entirely predicated on money printing debt, borrowing from future generations and war. It is this modern day fiat that I am so grotesquely against and, and that Bitcoin is trying to solve for. And so in this world of fiscal dominance, the Fed doesn't matter unless they are utterly and completely willing to jack rates up in the face of the US government and effectively cause a sovereign debt crisis. Now we all know that that's not a thing. The Fed is highly politicized, has been captured. They don't act independently, and even if they tried, the US government wouldn't let them. And so the notion that raising rates would somehow fight inflation is bullshit. It's bullshit. Why didn't the fastest rate hike in the history of the Federal Reserve get us back down to our 2% inflation target? We still have inflation. So the notion that raising rates will curb inflation and is on its face a lie. When you're, when you have a government that's in this much debt, you cannot analyze macroeconomics monetary policy decisions the Fed makes without incorporating the fact that the world's debt to GDP, not even just the U.S. global debt to GDP, is over 300%. American debt to GDP is approaching 130%. These are untenable levels. The only thing that drives monetary policy and credit and the supply of fiat currency is the sovereigns, is fiscal dominance. Period. Okay, so I continue the thread, but if the market believes that now. So hold on, let me rewind. He says, don't be fooled. In fiscal dominance you produce higher inflation via an increased interest burden which needs to be further monetized. Remember the Reserve's management of December 2025 it's fiscal deficit monetization. If you add more interest burden, you add more monetization which adds to inflation. But if the market believes his charade and forgets for a while that more interest burden will increase monetization, which means higher inflation, they will pump the dollar until the fall of 2026 and then in US dollar terms, oil will drop even lower and then Tada Warsh will have an excuse to lower interest rates and hopefully the treasury consolidates the spending which is the real source of inflation. This is why the US gets the benefit of a more negative RG so much needed for sovereign debt relief. This is, this was a very eloquent way of what I tried to explain to you guys last episode. Warsh coming out and saying the committee is hawkish. We're ready to fight inflation, we're ready to hike rates is such a pile of shit because of the level of debt the US is in, hiking rates would actually add to inflation because we'd have to further monetize the debt because the debt burden would be increased. Because if you raise the interest rate on a pile of debt, on $40 trillion of debt, all these bills that these guys have to roll over, you're just adding gasoline to the fire. The most prudent thing to do, and what I expect them to do for further notice is probably nothing at all. But why would they be giving this rhetoric and this messaging? Well if the market believes this, then everyone will go bullish dollar and bullish dollar will help them tame the price of oil. So what has happened? Traders bullish on the dollar. Speculators held $34.3 billion in bullish USD WA June 23rd. That's the most in over a year. So the speculative market has gone more bullish dollar than any time in the last 12 months. So it seems like this idea, this thesis that I've been holding is starting to play out and remind you when the dollar goes bull, Bitcoin goes bare. Gold goes bare, right? It's, it's, it's an inverse way of saying strong dollar means weaker assets, weaker dollar means stronger assets. Obviously asset inflation is the same way of saying a debasing dollar. Right now, Bitcoin goes up in everything. Bitcoin's bullish against housing, bullish against food, bullish against dollar. But broadly speaking, the most bullish thing for Bitcoin is fiat collapsing, is this whole deck of cards coming apart. And so as you have these little instances where the dollar gets strong, like when the Fed chair comes out and in Huffs and puffs like the big bad wolf, then you're gonna get a sell off in assets in bullish dollar. Now if you look into the actual data though, the wage growth tracker, the three month moving average on medium wage growth is rolling over from post Covid. So this metric is declining. On top of that, the Fed's hawkish narrative is coinciding as inflation is falling. So as we see the straight of Hormuz is starting to see traffic, oil is starting to fall off, inflation is starting to top out. So the Fed's hawkish narrative seems to be coinciding right when inflation tops out. So the data that I'm looking at, inflation is cooling off and so is wage growth. So to the earlier thread, this is a perfect, perfect, perfect. If worse comes out, huffs and puffs at the market, the dollar strengthen, assets weaken, inflation cools off and then he comes back in fall and says look, look at the price of oil. Look at inflation tamed off. Now wage growth is really cooled off, we gotta cut rates. I'm just reiterating my point. Now with a little bit of data backing me, I do not buy the Fed hiking rates for a second. I think it's full of shit. I think it's a charade. I think it's a bunch of acting. There's no way, Well, I mean, listen, what am I, what do I know? There's of course a way, of course they can do whatever they want. Doesn't really matter too much to my life. I mean it's not going to affect my rates really, I don't care. So whatever. But I just don't buy it for a second. All the data I look at says a totally different story. It continues to aid though that this summer is just going to be kind of painful. My dad has always told us. Now this little community that we're building here in this corner of the Internet, my dad's always told us markets either scare you out or wear you out. And this summer feels like a wear you out. It's like, all right, we got every bearish catalyst, all the indicators said we bought them. Can we start moving again? Could we go, let's move here? And you've got the central planners drawing this market out, strengthening the dollar through, through their verbiage and through their words. You've got the administration, hey, we've agreed to agree to agree. Hey, an update. We've agreed to agree to agree to agree. Hey, we're taking a week off. Hey, we're going to focus on the World cup you're like, all right, enough, man. Open the straight, will you please? And it just feels like it's going to wear us down. We're not going to get a lot of action, a lot of clarity, maybe until the full fall. It's going to be a brutal summer where everybody, rich and famous is sitting courtside at all the big sporting events here at Madison Square Garden for the Knicks or Taylor Swift's wedding. They're at the World cup, and we're just sitting here getting headline after headline contradicting after contradiction. Everything this warsh guy is saying flies in the face of mathematics. It just feels like one of those summers. And you just got to stay humble. You just got to stack sats, just got to focus on allowing the bear market to make you a better person, earn more than you spend. All of the same things I say, that's my read on the market. Obviously, every Monday that goes by, if I get an instinct that it changes, then I'll let you guys know. But the data that I looked at week over week just reinforced how I felt about the Fed basically being full of shit with their hawkishness. I don't buy it for a second. And it seems like bitcoin with this little bounce from 58 to 64. Bitcoin's on the same vibe I am. It's not buying it. It's not buying it. So now I want to pivot to AI I see a little kink in the armor, a little crack in the narrative, okay? The bubble might have a hole in it, okay? And the reason that that is so important, who cares if AI turns out not to be the prophecy that they're claiming? You know, the reality is, is AI useless and a failure? No. I use it. I use it to make this show. But is AI going to solve all the problems they claim? Probably not. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle of the extremes, okay? And if that turns out to be the case for AI, who cares? I certainly don't give a it. I mean, I'll make use of whatever tools are at my leisure and build family, build community, build better money. I don't care. What? Why? Why does it matter? Why is it relevant? Well, just to remind you guys, the entire US Economy, and therefore lots of the global economy, have been built around AI narrative. Whether you like it or not, the United States has made AI a national emergency, national imperative, national security. We must win the AI race. It's as clear as day. I could have spent a lot more slides and a lot more time on this but we got the World cup today. We're not going to do that. But right, left and center, this administration has gone all in on AI, on reshoring, on commodities, on industrial production. Like we are basically, how do I say, marking to market, truing up how short we were on physical commodities, physical infrastructure, on energy, on all things art. It's basically taking electrons and turning it into intelligence. Okay? And if this AI bubble starts to crack and starts to show that it's not as promising, then you get a collapse of these cards because there's so much investment. Trillions and trillions of dollars. In all, 96% of the GDP growth over the last year has been tech and AI. And so the rest of the economy has been in like a recession. And so this thing has to work. It has to work. And I think that kinks in the, in the armor of AI is actually a bullish indicator for Bitcoin, because all this money that's plowing into AI will be like, well, hold on a second. This might not be as safe of an investment as I thought, which is what always happens. It was like, oh, there's, it's free money. NFTs were free money. ICOs were free money. Meme coins were free money. Just punting an AI is free money. And then you have to run into things like the, the realities of the universe, Gresham's Law, all sorts of, like, hard realities, and nothing is free money. And then you actually save in hard money. So let me show you guys some of the kinks in the armor that I started to notice. 1. Meta selling excess compute. So hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure has been spent, and now they need to sell excess capacity to. This flies in the face of the narrative that there's infinite amounts of demand for AI. There's just no supply. We're going to spend the next decade, decade building, building, building, building, building. And they could never sell enough. Well, what the fuck is this? They have extra. They have like wholesale extra compute that they're willing to get off and just sell it. It came off as a very bizarre headline. I mean, Zuckerberg took a giant cash flow machine and pivoted from buybacks and excess cash reserves into debt, into capitally intensive investment, only to have a cloud business that sells the scraps after, when there's not enough demand. So the screenshot is Meta is building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute. Summary from Bloomberg. Meta Platforms Inc. Is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models, competing with industry Leaders like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft's Azure and Google Cloud. The company is considering selling access to various AI models hosted on its existing AI infrastructure, as well as raw computing capacity as part of its Meta Compute initiative. Meta's plans to generate revenue from excess computing power are part of its efforts to return on its investment in AI infrastructure, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars spent on data centers and other infrastructure. Okay, so I read this headline and I'm like, whoops, I thought the return on investment was automatic. However much money you needed, just spend it. This is money printing free money. It's the digital gold rush. We're turning electrons into intelligence. There's infinite demand for intelligence. You're everyone's a customer, everyone's got money to pay. In fact, Elon's telling us this is such an outrageous quote, we won't even need money anymore once this build out is done. Who needs money? The world is our oyster. Spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. And now they're running a cloud business to hopefully return all the hundreds of billions of dollars already spent. That screams to me that all of this hasn't totally been figured out yet. Right? I don't know about you guys. Now this tweet from Paulo, shout out Paulo is basically exactly what I'm saying in so many words. He writes, AI, big tech subsidizes compute to increase user count, building expensive infrastructure, slash capex, subject to fast decay three to five years. So they're building all this infrastructure, spending way more than they're earning, taking on debt, mind you. This infrastructure decays every three to five years. Okay, this is not infrastructure that's going to last thousands of years. They're going to have to rebuild this shit and redo this. It is so capitally intensive. We've talked about this. You're going from a business like Facebook, which you build one app and you pay engineers and servers to host it. And it scales to billions of people with hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue. This new business is the exact opposite, very capital intensive. Every single new model, every single new few years, you're going to need new infrastructure, new compute, new energy sourcing. Okay, so Paolo writes, there's a token price mismatch, profitability to timeline mismatch, cost of capital to maturity mismatch and open source AI taking growing chunks of revenues. What could possibly go wrong? Now the word mismatch here. I don't know if he intended on this, but when you have a mismatch, you know, there's assets to liability. Mismatch. How about that? Mismatch that's how shit blows up. Okay, when you borrow so much from your future, what if the profit doesn't meet the timeline? What if you need to raise the token prices which destroys your actual active client base? What if the cost of capital to the maturity is mismatched? What if open source AI or Chinese competing models actually go to take a large chunk of market share? Well then this whole thing kind of blows up a little bit. Now it doesn't mean AI is going to die as an industry and is going to be entirely irrelevant. Clearly artificial intelligence is here to stay. My life is way better off for it. I'm sure you guys feel the same. But the question is all this gdp, all this growth, all this investment, the thing that blows up bubbles is mal investment. That's when you need bailout. When you've borrowed from a ton of your future and you have incapable, you're incapable of paying it back. Someone has to realize that loss, someone then has to lose. Typically it's the people in the form of a bailout. Now, coinciding with all of this, this headline could not be missed. OpenAI proposes a 5% stake to Trump administration to ease Washington's pressure. That is 42 and a half billion dollars worth of equity that they're offering the Trump administration. So this is a CNBC article. The key points read, OpenAI proposed handing the US government a 5% stake in the company. According to the reports from the Financial Times, the potential holding would be worth roughly $42.6 billion at the artificial intelligence startup's recent $852 billion valuation. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly argued that the move was the best way to share the upside of AI with the public. Well, I don't have that short of a memory to remember that. When open AIs CFO Sarah Fryer went to a Silicon Valley event and said that OpenAI would be on board with having an official federal backstop for the investment of all the build out. Do you guys remember this? We covered it on the show. It was less than a year ago where the Open Air CFO went to an event and said the US government should give a backstop to this industry. You know, in the event that we actually can't make whole on this investment and we all are going to need bailouts. We, we can't lose this race to China. The US has made this a national security threat. We certainly don't want to have to act economically responsible and be bound by our own productive activity. We should just throw money at this shit, yeah, there will be some mal investment, but as long as the US government has our back with the, with the ability of money printing, then we have a real chance at winning the AI race. And then there was such backlash to that, by the way. There's no mistakes, right? Putting out that to, to me, that was putting out a feeler of what inevitably, internally, everyone knows to be true. And then there was such backlash where the people were like, hold on a second. There's such a concentration of wealth with this stuff. Elon's getting rich, Zuckerberg's getting rich, Sam Altman's getting rich. The people are getting their jobs taken. And there was such a political backlash that OpenAI CFO, this is what's on the right. Sarah Fryer says company isn't seeking government backstop, just clarifying their prior comment. So came out, gave a teaser, everyone was like, whoa, whoa, whoa, how about you? And then she says, whoa, you guys are misinterpreting my words. I didn't say I wanted any relationship with the government. Only less than a year later, OpenAI say I'm gonna hand Trump 5% stake. What? To share wealth with the, with the public? What the fuck are you talking about? How does that benefit me? No, come on. To me, kinks in the armor. There might be a hole in the bubble. Okay, Meta seemingly has too much compute, not enough demand. That's not how the narrative was being spun. Now, OpenAI getting in bed with the government. I mean, government backstop, government guarantee, bailout, stimulus to support. This is to me as clear as day, mind you, look at this. This is semiconductor concentration in the S&P 500. We've gone from 2% of representation from semi semiconductors in the S&P 500 to 20%. And look at everything else. Everything else, obviously, if you do the reverse math, was at 98% and is now down to 80%. So everything else is getting its ass kicked. This is dot com vibes if I've ever seen it. I mean, the semiconductors being represented in The S&P 500 is just another way of just riding the air wave, which again, I'm not saying AI is dead. I'm not saying there isn't a future. I actually think that most of the value will accrue to people like you and I. Like, we're going to get access to open source, cheap tools. I mean, it's a race to the bottom. There's going to be a lot of spend, probably from governments and effectively nationalized corporations to build out this Physical infrastructure. And we all will be so much more productive for it. I gave a talk in Prague about how we all will be able to pursue arts again and our true interest and passions again. We won't be slaves to just drudged labor like legal and compliance and bullshit accounting and tax reporting. We can do truly inspiring human work once more. But I mean this to me again. Kink in the armor. Okay, it looks like now one of the most bullish things that can happen to bitcoin is that this pops a little bit because this was sucking in so much capital. It was the new infinite money glitch. And as bitcoiners, we've seen this before. Meme coins, ICOs. NFT. NFTs. Oh, Ethereum. These things are perfect. This is where everyone needs to invest. Tell your Grandmother, empty the 401K. AI AI AI. Guys, as we talk about on the show, reality, we're governed by reality, by mother nature. At the end of the day, there's not enough room for everyone to get return on their investment. It was the most irrational, stupid thing. The free market will end up having to handle all this mal investment. Looks like Zuckerberg over invested as he seemingly does from time to time. Remember the metaverse. Well, someone's got to realize that loss. And I have a feeling that the government is not going to be willing to lose the AI race. And so I expect stimulus and I expect what when there's my best guess is, by the way, Bitcoin predicted all of this. Bitcoin started to sniff out that there wasn't enough liquidity and there was malinvestment in the market months ago. Bitcoin topped out in October. Now we're starting to see the kinks now. This is the same exact thing when FTX blew up before Silicon Valley Bank. When you have a truly free market where information is abundant and accessible to everybody, a truly free market tells you the truth, takes no prisoners. Okay, I've said it time and time again. If you want to know the truth, Bitcoin is your mirror. Don't ask Bitcoin to be gentle. Ask Bitcoin to be truthful and become the type of person that can handle the truth. Don't ask bitcoin to change. If you have a problem with Bitcoin and therefore the truth, I recommend you figure it out and you change. So bitcoin's already told me the writing was on the wall. I mean, it's not surprising, okay? But I think it's very bullish because we can. The bubble finally pops. The liquidity is going to have to come and I think this time around investors aren't going to be so blind to toss money into AI. I don't think it's just, I don't think it's so obvious anymore, honestly at this point. Is it, is it obvious that all these AI investors in Anthropic and OpenAI, are they going to get returns on their investment? I mean it depends when you invest it. Of course you're going to hear the stories of the seed investor in Anthropic and how they invested $10,000 and now own a country. Yeah, okay, cool story bro, but I'm talking about more practical people that have been investing in this build out, investing hundreds of billions of dollars, trillions of dollars as an industry. Are they going to get a return on that investment? And I don't mean selling their bags to retail. That's not what I mean. I mean are they going to generate enough profit to pay back the money invested, not are they going to find enough liquidity to sell their bags? Let me, let's look at the SpaceX IPO already underwater from its listing. So. Well, keep a close eye on this one because I do think, I mean listen, like I never, I don't have a speculative opinion on when and calling it the bubble popping is maybe too aggressive of terminology. Again, I'm not calling death to the industry. I'm very excited about. I'm bullish AI, but I'm bullish open source AI. I'm bullish what AI and bitcoin can do as a combination to human renaissance, to a pursuant of arts, to bringing back culture again. That's what I'm bullish on. I, I'm not bullish that there's going to be a return on all this invested capital. I think that there's just been plenty of mal investment, total mismatch assets to liabilities and all sorts of duration mismatch, mismatches that Paolo pointed out. They're all over the place and you're starting to see reality set in a little bit. And bitcoin has been warning us that reality is cometh for many months now. So you know, to a savvy bitcoiner, it's no surprise. Take advantage of these moments. Oh, there's going to be lots of distressed sellers, lots of distressed companies, lots of distressed balance sheets. Buy their dips, you know, be strong when others are weak. That's how you take advantage of of moments. So have cash flow, spend less, earn more, do what you can, stack stats, turn on dcas. And to me, obviously, short term, I could, you could see some pain in risk assets, you can see some volatility. So be careful with things like leverage, right? Don't live exceeding your means, right? But I think medium to long term, this is very, very, very, very bullish. Because, you know, liquid, this story, the notion that AI is going to bail us all out with ungodly amounts of productivity, solve every problem. And you know what's funny? In hindsight, it's always so obvious, right? It's like, did we really think that this technology was going to solve everyone's problem, cure everyone's debt? It was going to be so good that we didn't even need money anymore. We're going to look back at that Elon Musk interview and be like, wow, were we stupid? We thought we wouldn't need money anymore, that this thing would solve the $40 trillion worth of debt and so somehow no one would have a job, but everyone would have a job. We didn't even think to ask, like, how that makes any sense. It was just, it was just gonna solve everything and all the valuations and the headlines and anthropic and this and that and everything. And it reminds you of ftx, right? Like no one thought for a second how, how ft. I mean, I remember telling Dylan, this Sam Bigman Freed guy is so full of. It's painfully obvious. And he was like, come on, man, have you seen these valuations? Sequoia did the diligence and then in hindsight, it's so obvious. Like, no dub meme coins are going to end poorly. No cat picture NFTs were going to end poorly. No, Dogecoin and Shiba unu are not money that is going that society is going to adopt. Like, come on, what were we thinking? It feels very similar. Like you cannot just put. Anyway, I digress. We'll see. We'll keep a close pulse on this as weeks go by. I mean, this is an industry that's too big to fail. So I'm not saying it's going to fail. I do think though that there needs to be liquidity to support it. And maybe, just maybe, that's what bitcoin is already starting to sniff out, going from 58 to 64. We'll keep a close eye. But if there is liquidity that is going to come and save this thing going into midterms. You know what it'll tell you first, Bitcoin will. So chapter three, last chapter of the day. Let's take a look at our old friend Our Tik Tock next block. Don't mind bitcoin. It's just forming a bottom and telling you the truth. All right, let's take a look at some of my metrics here. In identifying a bottom, this is the MV RV ratio score. All this, by the way, Check on Chain. Love that guy's stuff. Really good. He does some really good podcasts as well. So I don't know, I feel like people don't get enough credit for their work. This episode, I used a lot of forward guidance charts. I've shouted those guys out. Check on Chain, the bitcoin layer, Nick Bhatia and his team. So making sure people get credit where it's due. These are his charts. You can see his Check on Chain logo in the middle. Okay. MVRV ratio. Z score. You can see where the prior two bear markets, there were about 10 months between for you to be buying the bottom. We're about six months in. That doesn't mean there's four months left. Could be, though. Could be. Ain't no telling. But now is a great time to turn on those DCAs. And again, this type of timing would imply you've got a long, grueling summer of chop, chop, chop, chop, chop. Different narratives, AI narratives, strategy narratives. This bullshit, that bullshit. Keep your head down, touch grass, lift heavy things, hang out with your family, get some sunlight, work hard, earn more than you spend, stack. Stay humble. But this is the moment. We are in deep value territory. Can it go lower? Yeah. Could this already have been the bottom? Yeah. I don't know. Stay humble and stack sets. But these are the moments when, when you hear stories from, you know, guys like me that have been in Bitcoin for 14 years, you're like, holy, you bought the dip after Mount Gox. What did that feel like? Was it so obvious? No, it wasn't so obvious. It was painful. Everyone thought the industry was over. Everyone thought bitcoin was dead. Everyone had moved on to other things. But these are those moments. These are those moments. I just. I don't know how else to tell you guys. I mean, I've, I. I'm a veteran to the game. I've lived through this so many times. This is it. This is it. Just deep breath, relax. You're. You're. You're never going to get the pico bottom. You're never going to have enough money to invest in bitcoin as you dreamed, right? Not everything's going to go your way, but you have some control over your destiny here. Just appreciate the moment and Try and take advantage of it. So this the Pork Pop. I can never pronounce this guy's name. He also does great podcasts. Pork Apollos Power Law. I think his first name is Matthew. His little metric. The reason I thought this was interesting is it hasn't been this low since the bear market of 2015. And I thought this was interesting because as far as sentiment goes, we might be. The bear market of 2015 was the worst I've ever. And that was my first bear market and is the worst sentiment maybe since then. That was so bad because mind you guys, not only did we have the collapse of Mount Gox, but we had Silk Flag Road. Let me take you back to bitcoin. At over $1,000 a coin, our all time high was around $1,200 back then. And then not only the biggest exchange, the only exchange, there was no other. Like, it wasn't like, well, you have the Black Rock ETF and you also have Coinbase. No, that. I'm saying there was one core exchange back then. Like, and really my dad and I, like, we didn't really start buying until Coinbase came online because Mount Gox was so sketchy. But it was the only core exchange. That thing blows up and blows up. Not like it gets shut down because it didn't have a license. Like, everyone's money's gone. And that was the same chapter when Silk Road blew up and Ross went to jail. And so you had bitcoin is drug trafficking, Ponzi money. And everyone thought bitcoin got hacked because Mount Gox got hacked. There was no bitcoin podcast, bitcoin books, bitcoin influencers. There was no bitcoin standard. There was no Mailbag Monday Jack Mallory show. There was none of this shit. There was no regulatory clarity. There was the President of the United States didn't have bitcoin and cold storage, which I'll talk about in a second. None of that. This was a time of like, oh, maybe the US government is going to overregulate it. This industry is going to be dead. It was a good idea. And Bitcoin went from $1,200 to $250 over years. Multi year bear market. It just grinded lower for years. It was so fucking painful. And the sentiment feels similar of just the level of why are we like, Bitcoin's almost lost its narrative a little bit. Like, why are we here again? Why would I invest in this thing? Is it. It's not even the cool thing anymore. AI is cool and bitcoin faces this. It's not even the cool thing. Ethereum's cool. It's not even the cool thing. NFTs are cool. It's not even the cool thing. AI is cool. And I don't know, sentiment just feels that low to me, which is bizarre. And with at 58k too. So anyway, food for thought. That bear market, I still. I mean, we still. No way. Sentiment is worse now than that bear market. I'm telling you guys, that was. I mean, that and the block size wars are the only few times where I was like, holy, is this thing not gonna work? I mean, we're long past me ever having that passive thought. But yeah, so just some signs of life here and some signs that not only does it feel like true capitulation, like people are in severe pain out there. People are questioning if bitcoin's relevant, if AI is now the cool kid on the block, if bitcoin. Why do we need bitcoin anymore? Isn't China stacking gold? We're going back on a gold standard. What's the point? Peter Schiff might have been right this whole time. Not only are we seeing pure capitulation pain, but we're seeing these classic divergence. So again, I'm not a big chart guy. I don't typically draw lines on charts. But when you see, I mean, this is what usually marks these bottoms is when you get sellers just exhausted. So the cool thing about bitcoin is there's a limited supply. There's only so much to go around to sell. And so eventually, as long as there's a core group that still believes in this thing as money and is continuously monetizing it, then you get seller exhaustion. And the way to measure that is when the price continues to try and go down, but the momentum that's carrying it down gets weaker. That means you're getting less and less enthusiasm of people to dump this shit. And so what we can see is Bitcoin was at $60,000 bottom, and it broke that and got as low as 58. But the momentum that carried it to 58 was a fraction of what carried it to 60. And there's just far less momentum. It seems like the sellers and the people shitting all over bitcoin and the people that have a bunch of bitcoin and are like, fuck this thing. I'm going to. I are getting exhausted. There's barely any left. And I'll get into that in a second of just who really sets the price and who really stands the line. You know, because when Saylor said, you know, without me, bitcoin would be $5,000 in a worthless project, I found that so offensive. So offensive. For someone that's been working in this space for 14 years and I haven't done shit in this industry compared to so many other people, that was so offensive. And I've heard that rhetoric a lot of without the ETFs and without treasury companies, bitcoin wouldn't be shit. That is so offensive. And it couldn't be further from the truth, which I'll get into in a second. But the reason I bring that up is because when you look at a chart like this and you see sellers exhausted, the sellers are exhausted because people like us hold the line and say, we're not selling, we're going to continue to turn on our DCAs and we like again, I've talked about this a million times. All of us normal people, we have the bitcoin supply. Satoshi found a way through proof of work mining to, to distribute the supply of bitcoins to the people. It's not like a few institutions own 60%, 70, 80% of the supply and they're the ones that decide whether they're selling or whether they're holding. It's collective consensus with a growing group of individuals, small businesses, people all over the world that are like, you know what, I go out and I'm net productive, meaning I work hard and I spend less than I earn and I take the excess. And when I decide I have to monetize something because I have to as a human being, use money to optimize for my future. And at the margins, every single time I have to make that choice, I choose bitcoin. We are the ones that hold the line. We are the ones that reduce the momentum of selling because we own the majority of the supply. The people who owns 80, 90% of the Bitcoin supply, not the government and treasury companies, we do. And so we hold the line. Get that disrespect out of here. Okay, towards the end of bottoms, when the market is truly forming a bottom, you see this cross here? If you look at the bottom, the, the green and the red, this is the amount of supply in profit versus the amount of supply in loss. And it's not perfect, it's looking at, on chain metrics. But when you see these touch and cross, that means the amount of supply and profit has gotten decreased so much that it's lower than the amount of supply and loss. And again, this is traditional capitulation. This is where the majority of bitcoin are close to that has been, that has been purchased on chain is at a loss. Everyone's underwater, but still nobody is selling. That means we are staying humble, we're stacking sats. These are not people with too much. Like, let me say it another way, everyone with excess leverage that has borrowed too much and has not been humble and has not been patient, they're getting washed out right now. They're puking their guts out. And it's how many of those people do you need to wash out? How many coins need to go into the hands of people that deserve it where they will be treated best, right? And eventually you get to a point where every one of the a highly levered high time preference get washed out. And where all of that supply and profit turns into much less, less, less, less, less. Where these are really the only coins that are in profit are really old coins, coins that people bought five, six, seven years ago, right? That, you know, people say, oh, bitcoin's about the same price it was four years ago. So in order to have an on chain UTXO in profit, you'd had to have bought a long time ago. And so the people that are holding still at a loss, these are people that aren't levered. These are people low time preference. These are people that have high conviction in bitcoin, that have jobs, that have income, that have profits. These aren't companies wholly reliant on VC for payroll. These are good businesses, convicted businesses, bitcoin businesses. And so when you see this metric, you know, we're close to a bottom now. I want to go back to the idea that without treasury companies in the ETFs, Bitcoin would be at $5,000 in a complete failure. Such offensive bullshit. One metric to look at is the Coinbase premium. So Coinbase is the major US exchange for spot bitcoin, real bitcoin. Okay? When there's a premium to that price, there's obviously people are really eager to get their hands on Bitcoin. When this metric is negative out of 10, so it goes from 10 to negative 10, a negative 7.29. That's yikes territory. Okay, Combine that with the bitcoin held by us, spot ETFs went from 1.347 million to 1.225 million. That means that there's been 120,000 net bitcoin flowing out of the ETFs. That's the amount of sell pressure that we faced over the last two months. Two months Mind you, Treasury companies have stopped buying and are now selling. So who's holding the line? Who's absorbing all of that? Who's buying dips and who are the coins that aren't over levered, that aren't puking their guts out, that don't have liabilities they can't meet, that are just staying humble and stacked? Sats, we the motherfucking people, the plebs. So puts it puts an end to this notion that we need ETFs and we need treasury coming now. They're not bad. I love the ETFs. IT treasury companies could, could be great. Who cares? Anyone can use Bitcoin for whatever they want. I've, I'm in no position, nor am I interested in saying who should or should not be using Bitcoin. Everyone use Bitcoin for whatever you want. That's literally, it's an open utility for the world. It's like a public park. It's no one's place to say you can't barbecue at the park. No. You can't play catch with your son at the park. No. You can't take your baby to the park. No. You can't walk your dog at the park. What the fuck do you mean it's a public utility. Everyone's going to use the park how they want to use the park. But the idea that the people don't hold the line on this asset and that without a couple people on Wall street this thing would be worthless. Get the fuck out of here. I'm sorry. So offensive. So offensive. And mind you, this is an open source project. So before we all march around and take credit for a multi trillion dollar open source project, how about we pay our dues to the early Bitcoin heroes and the open source developers. I mean being around 10, 11, 12, 13 years ago, the Greg Maxwell's of the world, the Peter Woolas of the world, there's so heroic behavior before anyone marches around with their chest out and takes credit for bitcoin. I mean get the out of here please. Respectfully, no. No. But no one entity, no one Wall street vehicle makes Bitcoin what it is. It is a collective movement, period. Enough of that shit. And now we have the data to prove it. ETFs have dumped 120,000 bitcoins on our head in the last two months. And treasury companies are not eating all of that supply. In fact recently they've become sellers. And guess what? Bitcoin bounced off 58k. So who the fuck bought that? Come on, come on, man. Enough of the hat, enough of that. Let's keep the vibes high. What are we doing? That's not bitcoin? What are we doing? And just a little snippet I wanted to add in here. M2 money supply saw the largest monthly increase in the last five years. So again, I'm not one of those. Bitcoin and M2 are paired hand in hand. When M2 goes up, Bitcoin has to go up. We all know that that's been invalidated and not true. But keep in mind, bitcoin is going to smell out liquidity to the downside and the upside. It's going to tell you the truth first. Let's just keep a pulse on this bitcoin thing. These bottom indicators look good. And it doesn't mean we can't draw out for the next two to four months. It doesn't mean it's not going to be a grueling, brutal summer. That requires patience, that requires humility, that requires humble, that requires stacking. That's not what I'm saying. But, guys, appreciate the moment. Know where you stand. Know how valuable you are to the network. Don't let anybody else tell you that you don't matter. I just showed you the data. We're the only thing that matters. Us, the people are the only thing that matters in this asset class. So Satoshi found a way to distribute all the bitcoins, all the sats, to all of us before the rest of the world figured it out. The supply's gone. There's only a million bitcoin left to be mined. It's gone. It's already in the hands of the people. So sellers get exhausted when all the bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of people like you and I that have jobs, that produce cash flow, that earn more than they spend. Don't take on too much leverage and hold the line. I'm not selling anything right now. I'm a buyer. I'm a stay humble and sat stacker. Let's go, guys. We got this. On top of that, the fact that the sitting president of the United States reported owning over $50 million of Bitcoin held in cold storage. I mean, listen, I was arguing. Are arguing with myself whether I should make my grind my gears. Rant. The amount of profit that Trump extracted from this industry, I mean, he made over $1 billion, I think last year. He was the top earner, made more money than Coinbase, made more money than everybody. Just extracting wealth from the people that he governs as the President is crazy. But love him or hate him, agree with his practices or not, the guy is not shy on making money and investing in what is in his best interest. In the fact that you have the sitting President of the United States that not only has over $50 million of Bitcoin, but it's in cold storage. Now, this was, this was December 2025. So we'll have to wait a full another year to see if he had diamond hands. If he hodled right, who knows, maybe he could have sold. Maybe. I have no idea. Right? This, this filing is. We're only seeing it now. Right, right. Six, seven months later. But guys, I mean, if that's not a bullish to me, Trump, Trump reads like the guy that's. I know where this industry is going. I know where the world is going. I make money off of these things. I don't just sit patiently and watch. This is not a charitable effort. I make sure that me and my family get paid for the access that we have. I mean, love them or hate them, that's. That's what he does, seemingly. And this position is crazy. I mean, the fact that a sitting president is, has cold storage bitcoin of this size is crazy to me. And the fact specifically that it's Trump in this administration. I mean, I saw some movement on the strategic bitcoin reserve. Didn't put it in here. Didn't feel like it was quite ready to talk about with you guys. But I'm keeping a close eye here. I'm keeping a close eye. All right, let me get drink some water real quick and we'll do grind my gears. All right. This week, grind my gears is actually not grind my gears at all. I think the bear market is hard enough. If I'm being honest. It's hard enough. I think the vibes on my social medias, from where I can see, have been low. They've been bleak. People are pissed, people are upset. And so I didn't feel like complaining this week. I, I told you guys last week I spent touring and looking at a wedding venues with my fiance, which was, which was awesome experience, very exciting. I got to see my parents, so I got to see Brooke and my dad and spend some time with them. And it's just so good to be with family, to be outside summertime touch grass and I'm stacking sats. Right. I'm enjoying my time, living my life, staying in shape, getting really cool experience. I'm very excited to start my family. So it just felt like maybe instead of grind my Gears and complaining. This week, we spent some time just being positive. And for me, that's the World Cup. I think the World cup, the timing of it and what it has meant to the world right now at such an interesting kind of inflection point that we're living through, has been fascinating to me. I wrote here, the World cup reminds us that underneath all the algorithmic fragmentation, political tribalism and online subcultures, people still desperately want to belong to something real. I think that's true. People want to rally together in a bar. People want to, you know, in Chicago here, as soon as this episode's over, probably going to run outside and find a crowd and watch the game. And people want that, that connection. I've talked before. I think innately as a person, you naturally want two things. As a human, you want to be part of something bigger than yourself, and you want to be part of something that will last longer than you will. Right? And I think family is the most natural expression of something like that for us. You know, you're part of something bigger than you. And that family literally, mathematically, can't be one person. You know, you find a partner, you reproduce, you have kids, and then it also lasts longer than you. And that's the idea of extending your bloodline. You know, the family lasts longer than when you're gone. Hopefully your kids have kids and their kids have kids and so on and so forth. You know, things like bitcoin, I think, are an expression of that being part of something that is definitively bigger than anybody, any company, any government, any person. Bitcoin is bigger. It is the ultimate humbler. It is humility personified, right? And lasts longer than. Than we will. Like, bitcoin will outlive all of us listening to this. All of us. And there's something too, about the World cup being this, like, larger than life event that unites different cultures, different countries, Right? I think for me, the World Cup, I mean, watching Iran play on my TV screen while I host a show that talks about us at war with them, that's impacting energy markets and oil crisis and all this stuff, it was crazy to me because, I don't know, I think the World cup has reminded us that we're not nearly as divided as the Internet and bear markets maybe make us feel we're not as soulless as markets make us feel, in my opinion. And I think it goes to show just how impactful large government and politicians are in our lives. I mean, we're at conflict with guys I was hoping scored a Goal in a soccer game or a football match. We're not as hopeless as politicians sometimes want us to feel. So, I don't know, the World cup to me was super cool. It's just we still know how to gather, we still know how to sing, we still know how to care. I think is a very unique, shining beacon in what is just a grueling, grueling bear market in a slight but meaningful pop in the AI bubble, in conflict in the Middle east, in an oil energy crisis. Inflation is back. I think this has just been a joy. And touring wedding venues with my fiance and being with my family and watching the World cup and getting to know other cultures and other superstars. I've really. And it's been the highlight of my summer so far. I've really, really enjoyed it. I can't pretend like I was a soccer fan before this World cup, but I can't wait to watch tonight's match. Yesterday, I was going nuts when Norway scored those goals. I was in my house jumping. My fiance had to wash our couch. Like, you know, you take apart the couch and put the, whatever the things in the wash. I was jumping and stomping all over our white couch. This guy is my favorite fucking guy. And like this Holland guy, Erling Holland guy, for those that don't know, he's the superstar on Norway. Superstar of the tournament so far. I mean, he's got as many goals as Ronaldo has had in his career. In the World cup, he's tied for the Golden Boot with Mbappe and Messi. He's 25, but this guy is so awesome because I was a fan of him before the World cup, not because I'm a soccer fan, but guess what? He drinks raw milk. He eats raw dairy. He focuses on single ingredient foods. He eats meat, eggs, raw dairy, keeps it simple. And he has this life. He approaches life in a very unique way for a superstar that I just find endearing. It's very aligned with myself in Bitcoiners. Right? He has this approach where he's, you know, life is meant to be lived fully, meant to experience, meant to take risk, meant to work hard. I'm going to take care of my body, but I'm going to enjoy it, because why not? I'm going to be ambitious. I'm surely going to fail. It's the only way to learn, but that's what it's all about. He's been dating the same girl since he was a teenager. So he's family love, wants to have kids healthy, kind of takes A different approach to diet, different approach. He. But he's not all caught up in the bureaucracy and the political infighting and all the. He's just a breath of fresh air. And he kind of comes across on the soccer field like this Viking monster, like, this big. Like, it reminds me of Bitcoin. He just can't be stopped. But he scores a goal, and he's humble and shows humility. He doesn't take life or himself too seriously. I just love this guy. And to me, this is like a shining beacon of culture. And it's a. It's such a stark reminder of the. The parts of being human that we all adore is like, wait, this guy eats good foods, lives good life works hard, and this whole World cup thing. And, like, this is what it's about. Like, now this is a superstar. This is inspiring to me. And, I don't know, today I didn't feel like complaining about government. I didn't want to complain about Trump extracting a billion dollars today, although that's such a preposterous thing to do. I kind of felt like, you know, today, guess what? My fiance and I, this guy's a big, cold plunge guy. And my fiance today, woke up this morning and we biked over to the lake here in Chicago and we dove in and did a little cold plunge. It was just cool. And that's just like, it's fun. It's summer, World Cup. Go Team usa. And this, like, what. What a fun reminder of like, hey, get outside, touch grass, work hard, earn more than you consume, stay humble, stack sats, eat well, take care of yourself, go tour wedding venues, go fall in love, go plan how you're going to have kids, go spend time with your parents. Just a great. I know the bear markets are tough. I'm not taking that away from anyone. I mean, hard on all of us. Hell, I mean, if I want to feel bad about myself, I'll open my phone, open my social media. You guys give me. No, you guys don't spare an inch. But I don't know, just World Cup. Such good vibes, such good energy. I really have been enjoying the summer, and I'm grateful for the World cup. And I love this guy. I look, I mean, if. If we have to play Norway, my heart will be torn. This guy, to me, is a superstar in every sense, exemplifying diet, optimism, life. There's a Norwegian kind of folktale saying of, don't take yourself too seriously. Don't value yourself above your peers. It is kind of their version of Stay humble, work hard. You're not too cool for school. You're not the. You don't need to be the boss, the president, the main character. It's this egoless energy. This guy cracks me up. He's the man. So shout out to Holland, Shout out to the World Cup, Go USA and with that, let me play this video from him, which I think kind of exemplifies this type of bitcoiner energy that I, when I was watching and getting to know this guy, I was binging all of his stuff after catching up on the World Cup. I think he's just a superstar in every sense and just reminded me of some of the things I talk about on the show. So let me play this clip. Do I want to do this? No, I don't. Will I do it? Yeah. How am I doing it? Yeah, because why not? It's good for my body, it's good for my mind. I feel I'm tired, but then I tell my body, I'm not tired. Then I think it's a psychological thing that telling yourself, okay, I'm not so tired, it's okay, we keep going. If you tell yourself you're tired, you're going to be tired. If you tell yourself, I'm not that tired, it's okay, you're not the tired. Simple as that. So it's also a really psychological thing because our bodies can handle so much more than we think. I just think that I couldn't agree more with that. You know, do I want it? He said in the video, do I want to be doing this? No. Will I do this? Yes. Am I doing it? Yes. When I feel tired, I tell myself I'm just not tired, because why not? I don't know. It reminds me. I mean, I'm much more vulgar in my expression of this. I call it, don't be a bitch. But it reminds me of what I tell Dylan. You know, sometimes I'll say to Dylan, you know, success is a choice, is a decision. I think our bodies and us as humans are so capable. Really, it's up to you. You know, I don't like excuses in life because excuses, whoever's fault it is, gives them the power over outcomes in your life. That's why it's never in my life. It's never anyone else's fault but mine. And I tell this to my employees I hate. Don't tell me, don't point a finger at somebody else, because then you're worthless to me. And you don't want to be worthless at one of My companies. Because then why are you on my payroll? Don't say it was. Well, it was really that guy's fault. Okay, cool. All you're telling me is that that guy defines outcomes. And sure, this one might have not gone his way, but then I got to work with him to make sure that we get the outcomes we want. But why the fuck am I talking to you? So I don't do excuses. I don't give anybody else that level of power over my life. It's a decision. I'll decide if I'm tired, I'll decide if I can do it. But we are far more capable than we think. And so sometimes I don't want to do things. Do I want to go through this bear market? No, of course not. I want bitcoin to be 500k. I want strike to have every license and have launched all of our fees, features. I want. I want all sorts of things. But am I going to go through this bear market? Am I going to stack the SATs? Yeah. Yeah, I am. I've made a decision for myself and my family that we're going to win. That's just what it is. I made that choice. So hopefully serves us some inspiration positivity. Go Team usa. Okay, Strike, what we launched last week. Reminder, we got our Mika license. So now Europe, I can market to you guys. I can talk to you guys more directly. We can launch certain features. So we are now everywhere that Mika allows us to be, which includes Italy and Spain. Check your app stores. Really exciting. And then a sneaky one that obviously didn't get all the love and the attention that Mika. And this is like strike Europe 2.0. We're here and we're here in a big way. We're going to invest a lot more into the region, a lot more into the features, into the app. So if you're European and you're listening to this, let me know. One, let me know how embarrassing I was talking about football. And then two, what you guys want to see in the app, what features we're missing, what features Americans have that you don't have, that you really, really want. Because we're hungry. We're already building. We're going to continue to build for you guys now in a big way. We previously weren't allowed to. And now we're here to stay. And we're here to stay in a big way. Italy and Spain, we weren't there before. We're there now. Download it, let us know what you think. But what flew under the radar is Account switcher. So a lot of you guys have multiple accounts, multiple Strike accounts or you maybe have a business account and a personal account and you can now easily toggle between all of your accounts inside of the app, which is really exciting. I mean it's a tiny feature. It's not like going to change your life. But these are the little things. This was one of the top requests was I have multiple Strike accounts. I want to be able to swipe switch between my LLC and my, my account or maybe my wife's account and flip flop between and it's one click away now. And so we continue every single week. I don't know a company that ships as much as we do, listens to customers as much as we do. It's, it's one of my biggest prides is just the level of execution and, and bitcoin culture that we've brought to a business. I mean strike is just we live and breathe the stay humble, stay focused, keep shipping. The humility it takes to sacrifice your own opinions and ideas for that of the customer. It's just an incredible group to work with. It's so much fun to work at Strike and work on this product. And now all the products we have coming, so very exciting. Tomorrow we completed testing today. I gave the official thumbs up product shout out to Gina. Shout out Sam, shout out Caitlin. We did our full end to end testing for production for volatility proof loans. So tomorrow we will be turning on and enabling the ability to open a bitcoin backed loan without the ability of getting liquidated. Okay, crazy. I know it costs a little bit more than a normal loan but the money that we charge, the difference between the two loans is we're taking that money and we're putting on hedges in the market so that we are protected if the market goes down and we do not have to liquidate any of your collateral. So no longer can anyone say Jack launches these products only to liquidate people's bitcoin. That's it was always a lie and now we've launched a product to solve for that problem. So if you want to open a bitcoin backed loan, you think bitcoin is going to go up 15, 20% a year and you're not worried about, you know, 10, 11, 12% interest on your loan and you don't want to face any world and where in which your collateral can get liquidated. We uniquely will offer that in app. Beautiful experience. Could not be more excited. So you guys get the early scoop. Listening to the show here, ride or dies. That'll come out tomorrow. I'll. I'll obviously have a video, a presentation, I'll walk everybody through it. And then this month, July, we should be enabling. I don't know if we're going to do some beta testing first, but interest on cash. So we think we'll have some of the best rates in the market. And then I've talked about my vision where I think we can end up offering 4, 5, 6% interest on cash. I'll talk about that vision later. I'll spare you guys right now, but our first version of that, which I would expect somewhere, you know, three and a half, 4%, somewhere in that range. We should have that turned on maybe for some beta customers first. Obviously we don't like shipping things without some thorough testing, but that's a this month thing. So our foot remains on the absolute gas bear markets are for building. This company is unbelievable. I'm just so proud to work here and I don't know, it's just such a fulfilling thing to build things for bitcoiners and for, for you guys to be receptive towards it. Or you guys say, no, I don't use strike yet because of this. And then we don't take it personally. We say, got it. Give us a month, we're going to go build that shit. I mean, we're turning into an AI company. The amount of products we're able to get to market securely with beautiful experiences as fast as we do, it's just a joy. It's just a joy. So shout out to the team, thank you guys, all the customers that support us. I really, really appreciate it. Obviously, we wouldn't be in business without you. And yeah, let us know what you want us to build. Liquidating proof loan so no liquidations will launch tomorrow and interest on cash after that. With that, maybe we got 15 minutes or so for some Q and A before it's World cup time. So let me blow up my screen and pull up what Dylan's got for me and we'll rock and roll. There we go. Okay, there's Dylan at. There he is. All right. Okay, Bitcoin slash markets question. Does MicroStrategy really need to satisfy the four capital stacks? Do bitcoin holders count? I'm thinking they are not technically tied to MSTR and so MSTR has no obligation to them. So this person is referencing my understanding of. Let me just give a quick summary. So there's, you know, four capital categories in the Ms. In the strategy capital stack. You've got bitcoin right? Then you've got common equity, which is mstr, you've got preferred equity, you've got strc, and then I think there's what, four or five of them. But you've got these preferred equity instruments. Saylor calls them credit, not quite credit, but I get what he's trying to do. And then you've got debt, convertible debt, right? And you've got these four. And the question is, how do you make everybody happy? Because right now, strategy is sitting at a significant loss on the Bitcoin. So their Bitcoin investment is underwater and their mnav, so the equity is not trading above net asset value. So the question is, you now have permanent obligations with these perpetual preferred equities, where you owe hundreds of millions of dollars a month and you're a company that doesn't generate any net income. So how do you come up with the money to pay these obligations? And. Well, let's walk through the options. One, you can sell Bitcoin. And selling Bitcoin is theoretically not harmful to MSTR investors, although we'll get to that in a second. So you're kind of sparing the MSTR investors by not diluting common stock, and you're sparing the preferred equity holders by not pausing dividends. Okay. The other option is you can sell mstr. So you're sparing Bitcoin in the price of Bitcoin and you're sparing the preferred equity holders. But the people burdened are mstr. Common is they're getting diluted, so they're carrying the cost. Then the other option is you can just pause dividends on these preferreds. You could say bear market. We don't have the money right now, so there's just not much we can do. And every single option, though, someone is a loser. And so the question that the listener writes in is, well, do they have to appease Bitcoin? Could they just sell Bitcoin? Yes, of course. In fact, that's what they did today. Now, the question is, I already know I'm gonna get myself in dangerous territory here, but I swear I mean it with no harm. I didn't even make it a, like a topic in the show today. The question is, why would you. Why would you own mstr? So the. From my understanding, I've never owned MSTR or Stretch or any of these things. So I've never, never shorted it, Never, never owned it. So just my opinion, which could carry no weight or merit because I, like I said, I don't focus too much on this stuff, it doesn't really interest me. I'm more focused on like, you know, bitcoin itself. But the thesis as I understand it, is that MSTR is engineered, quote unquote, to outperform bitcoin. Right? But it's. If they're, if they're constantly selling bitcoin, the equity will not outperform bitcoin. So you have to then ask yourself, why am I owning it instead of bitcoin now? Could it outperform bitcoin? Yes. Could the M Navs expand? But then you're making an investment thesis that a company is going to trade at multiples of its net asset value, which I don't know why it would. And I kind of. This is a point I'd made a long time ago, which is when you introduce the preferred equities, you've added leverage to your M Nav where if the M Nav is not rich and you're not in an ability to sell MSTR accretively, where you can do so without crashing the price of the stock, you notice MSTR last week went up a lot. Probably had something to do with the fact that the company itself wasn't selling a fuck ton of the equity. So it's great. I mean, they let, they let the equity recover without selling it. But anyways, when you have a preferred equity that has hundreds of millions of dollars of monthly obligations, you've added a lot of, I call it leverage. But you give a lot. You're burdening the common equity a lot because the common equity now has to trade at a rich premium or else you become what we just described, just a seller of bitcoin. And you can see here, hold on. The CEO Fong Li tweeted today, Let me. How can I share this on my screen? The CEO of Strategy tweeted today, oh, sorry, not a professional podcaster. He tweeted today, strategy is evolving from one way capital issuance to active capital management. That is, I don't totally understand what that means. It's kind of the, it's kind of the funny thing about strategy and some of the treasury company stuff is I never seem to fully understand. They talk in like riddles, like, so I, I don't totally understand what that means. I could take a guess. That means we've gone from buy Bitcoin, never sell to, you know, active management. Means we're going to do what we need to do when we feel like doing it, which is we've turned into a seller of bitcoin if we have to. That's that's how I interpret this is that we went from a buy never sell to a sometimes sell never buy. Depends on the context and depends on the price of the credit and this and that. And so anyways, if that's the case, then how are you going to. I don't know. I guess my point is there's a lot of risk. And by the way, that's every company, like there's a lot of risk in owning Meta stock. I'm not saying it's a bad thing. Like Meta stock, you're trusting Zuckerberg's allocation of all this capital they've raised and all the stuff they're doing and it looks like there might be some mal investment and now they're spinning out a cloud business and Meta has performed very poorly recently. And investing in Meta, there's a risk, risk in the management team, risk in execution, risk in consensus with the investor base. But the question I have is why wouldn't you just own bitcoin? Why would you? The thesis is that I guess like the MSTR will outperform it. But like today, for example, see today Bitcoin was up like a couple percent and I think strategy was down a percent. And so it's like, well, you know, and if the M Nav stays at this level, it doesn't matter how high Bitcoin gets. Let's say Bitcoin gets to. To 120k. If the M Nav isn't really rich, where they can aggressively sell equity, then they just have to sell bitcoin all the time. So I just, I don't know, I haven't worked that out. So anyways, my personal approach, which I guess offends some people, is it's just for me, the lesson I've learned in my career in bitcoin is the answer was always right in front of you. It's to own bitcoin and cold storage. You know, like, you know, people were like, well FTX was giving me all this APR and Sam Bankman Fried was a whiz kid or Mount Gox was really safe or GBTC and blah blah, blah. It's like, yeah, but blockfi to the moon. But in hindsight the answer was just, always just, just hold the keys. Like because I guess, are you compensated for the risk? And yeah, and the other thing is like, you know, you can't go wrong with doing what Saylor's doing. What Sailor's doing is selling equity to buy bitcoin to hold and cold storage. So I don't know Why I wouldn't do the same thing if I owned equity in these companies. I would just swap it for bitcoin cold storage. So who knows? I don't know. I think to me it's gotten complicated as to how this, like, what's MSTR's all time high, like $400. So Bitcoin right now is a 2x away from, from an all time high, right? We're sitting at 64k if we 2x128k all time high, but MicroStrategy is a 4x from all time high. And so I don't know. And you know, all these financial engineering wizards out on the Internet are surely going to clip this and call me an idiot in an asshat, but it turns out my questions were pretty good questions, right? Like obviously, you know, STRC fell a bit. The other thing that's interesting is they increased the dividend from 11 and a half percent to 12%, which adds a ton. I mean, when you have, you know, so much, when you have so much issued out, like over $10 billion of STRC, that's a lot of money that you're burdening with future payments and it's still only at 88 bucks. So I don't know, it seems like STRC cares more about the sentiment and price of bitcoin than it does the US dollar reserve or the fact that strategy is selling bitcoin. I mean, STRC didn't move and MSTR didn't move even though they sold bitcoin. I don't know if I answered any of your questions, but yeah, I mean if, if the, if there's no m nav, then you got to sell bitcoin and if you're selling bitcoin, I don't know how you plan on outperforming bitcoin with an equity. So we'll see. I have no idea. Who knows, Saylor has, is super smart and has proved many people wrong all the time and obviously we're all cheering for him and I don't by the way, last thing, I don't think, like tragedy is going to all this like talk that they're going to get liquidated and stuff. There's nothing like that. It might be the case that the equity kind of trades around 1M navigation and doesn't outperform bitcoin in any significant way. So it might be that we're transitioning to an era where the outperformance of bitcoin was because people were giving it these crazy m navs and it might Just perform more normally and it'd be harder to justify owning MSTR instead of owning just bitcoin and cold storage. I could see that happening but I definitely like there's no margin call on his bitcoin so we'll see. But the market, clearly the bitcoin market seemingly, you know, cares a lot about the position that they're in and wants, wants to see his actions so his actions of increasing the USD reserve. Now selling bitcoin, he is communicating back to the market and trying to say I hear you, here's some pain. I'm willing to take some pain because at some point, one point he was selling MSTR below nav and and still buying bitcoin in the face of all of this. And you know, bitcoin went to 58k. MSTR fell to 70 bucks or something. So we'll see. I don't know. If you guys have questions about it, let me know. But like I said this stuff like all the you know, financial engineering preferred this that it, it is not as interesting to me as some you know, as like core bitcoin stuff. So it's not a bad or good thing. It's just kind of my personal taste. But I'm obviously happy to talk about it as it's interesting to you guys or as it matters to bitcoin. But I thought I made my point pretty clear earlier. Like no company including strategy. But that goes for BlackRock, that goes for Strike 21. No, no company is bitcoin. Bitcoin would survive without any of us. Like so I thought I made that point pretty clear earlier. So if I ever feel like a company is threatening bitcoin or it's relevant to talk about in regards to bitcoin, I will bring it up. But yeah, okay, let's move on. I'm not even going to go into any of the other MSTR questions that that should have answered. Pretty much all of them. Too much time spent on that. Anyway, strike questions shout out to everyone who received a margin warning from strike question for Jack. When auto top up. It's a good question. I mean I think our priority was to get out the like no margin call, no liquidation, anything first. But I will ask product and get back to you. I know it's somewhere on our roadmap for sure. Good afternoon Jack not gonna make the live today so I'm asking in advance. Last year you mentioned joint accounts was in the future roadmap. Any idea when? Yes, I, I wanna say Q3 which is this quarter that we're in But I also don't wanna let you down. The president of the company who also leads a lot of our product stuff. Well, all of our proc stuff. She is at a wedding this week so she's usually here in this little dock I have helping me be as accurate as I possibly can. But she is out of office. So I will get back to you once I talk to her. But I appreciate the support and yeah, I. It's a this year thing. Obviously we want it sooner than later. Just so many things on the go that people want. But let's go with Q3, which would make it, you know, maybe September, August, September thing. But we'll see when personal line of credit for Ohio and for California. California should be soon. I mean this is. It's all license. It's all license. So. You know one of the funny things about Strike. Nobody has had the patience and the ability to focus on just building a bitcoin institution globally. And all that takes is ruthless execution, ruthless focus and just getting every single license, shutting up and listening to bitcoiners, building what they actually want and not guessing and going off and getting distracted by crazy ideas. And so that's what we're committed to doing. And a lot of this stuff is just we apply for these licenses, the regulars come out to our offices, they examine us, they inspect us, they do all this and then we get the license and we turn it on. So we're all, I mean all of this is a any day now, we're working on it type of thing. Most of it is licenses. Like for example now we've got MAA and Strike Europe. Our next big like market project is both the UK and Canada. But Strike Canada is well in the works. On our way coming. We're really, really excited about that. But the technology is ready, I'm ready to serve Canadians. The problem is just licensing and structure and meeting with the regulators. And this takes time. I mean I wanted to do this kind of two sided market where we obviously lend out dollars to bitcoiners that want to borrow against their bitcoin. Now where do I get the dollars from? Well, all these institutional people and you say well why are the prices so high sometimes? And blah blah, say well if there are people on our platform that want interest on their cash and there are people on our platform that want cash borrowed against their bitcoin, why don't I pair them up where I say hey, I'm going to pay 6% interest on cash that wants to contribute and basically have the their dollars be Part of this giant pool that lends out against over collateralized bitcoin loans. And then Strike adds a couple percent for ourselves for our take. And then we've lowered the rate that people are borrowing significantly. And it's not like you know, all of the, this money is going to some institution you guys don't know. It's bitcoiners borrowing and lending to bitcoiners. We're creating this dual sided market where like someone's USDT in Argentina can be on the app gathering 6% interest, financing someone to open a new business in Manhattan. And I want to do that today. Like why wouldn't I be able to do that? I have a global customer base. I have tons of people that want interest on, on their cash deposits and tons of people that want to borrow cash against their bitcoin deposits. The only reason is I don't have the right license me. What the hell? And so when's that going to launch? As soon as we're allowed to. So so much of it is just. And then what happens is a lot of these companies, they get wide eyed, they get ambitious, then they get into prediction market coins, they get distracted. Too much VC capital, they lose control of the company. Now all of a sudden the board controls the company. Like for strike, I control strike. Strike is mine. Every decision that we make, you track back to me, period. Fuck that board, board this, that, none of that shit. And but you see these companies raise too much VC money and they lose control and then the company starts going to wherever it's best. Profit seeking, it has a very high time preference and then no one ends up building like the global bitcoin bank or like the global financial institution for bitcoin miners. So anyway, sorry this started a, you know when personal line of credit for Ohio, it's coming, but all these things are coming, it's just chipping away the licenses, making sure we stay profitable. We stay listening to you guys, we continue to harden our culture, our work ethic, our execution. How quick can we go from you guys tweeting me something to launching it and using AI and, and so anyway, okay, other so two questions that are random and then it's World cup time. Dylan, question for Jack. Now that you have full self driving, is that what FSD is? I think so. What are your thoughts? I. I think you're talking about self driving on the Tesla. Best thing ever, ever. I actually had to rent a car where I was touring wedding venues and having to drive a car again was brutal. The self driving thing, it's it's also safer for everybody on the road. I mean 10 out of 10 I think it's great. And yeah, I don't know. I, I don't have enough good things to say about the self driving. Every car will have it soon and people will use it more. Like right now I'm not allowed to go on the app and basically say like just program it like go to Whole Foods and someone puts the groceries in there and come back. I can't tell it if I'm at a bar, like come pick me up and take me home. Like I can't tell it to do that yet I'm sure because regulators are getting in the way. I mean it's the, the technology is fully capable. So I'm very bullish. And then last question. Yo Jack, what kind of meat smoker do you use and what are the best cuts for someone just getting started? I have a Traeger now that I'm home, happy to be home. I will be smoking, let's see because I use AI to kind of guide me through the smoking process. Again, highly recommend bullish. AI just there might be some mal investment along the way that needs a bailout to. Tomorrow I'm smoking a 5lb bison chuck roast. It'll be an about an 8 hour smoke. So I'll start it when I wake up and I'll have it for dinner. So I do the. As I told you guys, I do this kind of like butcher selection cut from. What is it? Something in Bellow, Beck and Bellow. So I do, I get a random box once a month. So this month I have some duck, I've got a bunch of bison, I got some elk and I've smoked all sorts of stuff. I've smoked elk shoulder, I've smoked beef ribs, I've smoked. I mean tomorrow I'm smoking the bison chuck roast. So I just look it up. I mean it's really simple. Once you have the Traeger, the most complex it will get. Now it depends. Obviously there's professional smokers that make it more complex because they're good and they invest their time in it. But I don't, I mean the most complex smoke is where halfway through when you check the temperature, you want to take it out, spray a bunch of shit on it like beef tallow or something, rewrap it and put it in a container so that the juice and the flavor stays this, that and the third. But that's as complex as it gets. Is that like halfway through my eight hours, an hour, four Take it out for a second, wrap it in some tin foil, spray some shit on it and then put it back in. But really it just sits there. It's a slow cook, so it's like putting something in the microwave, but for eight hours instead of eight seconds. So it's really simple, it's really easy, especially with AI. So what I do is, you know, obviously you got to defrost these things. So I pull out my freezer every single morning, I pull out the freezer and I look at all I have. I've got Wagyu hot dogs, I've got wagyu beef patties for burgers, I've got bison chuck roast. All the. And I look at it and I say, huh? What would I want to have this week? And I pull it out, I put it in the fridge, let it defrost. And then when it's time to smoke something, I take a picture of it. So I took a picture of this 4.7 pound bison chuck roast. I said, what's the plan? Question mark to my little AI tool. And it just gave me the whole protocol. So now I'm ready to rock and roll tomorrow. Wake up, we're smoking this bad boy. Maybe I'll post some photos to nostr. So that's it. Keep it simple. Stupid. All right, well, go Team usa. Hey, hang in there, guys. Bear market. Enjoy the summer. Get outside. Earn more than you spend. All the same shit. I say, I don't want to drown your ears, but we got this. We got this and we matter. That notion that like if without BlackRock, Bitcoin would fail. Fuck right off. Fuck right off. We are the ones that are hodling right now. Our DCAs from six months ago are not in profit and we don't give a fuck. We're hodling, we're producing cash flow. We're not over levered, we're not distressed, we're working hard, we're stacking sats. We're staying humble. Keep that attitude, keep that energy. Don't let anyone scare you or wear you out of this market. We're going to be fine. Hopefully some of these slides and this data showed you AI is not all that it claims it is. The Fed is full of and bitcoin is right where you want it to be if you're long term bullish. Just hang in there. All right, go Team usa. I will talk to you guys on the Internet. Comments, questions, feedback, you know how it goes. I love you all. Oh, last thing I saw like a dozen of you guys on My wedding venue trip, I was, I was along the west coast and so many of you guys came up. I got some DMs like, Hey, I see you're eating lunch with your fiance. I don't want to interrupt you guys. Dude, interrupt us. I love it. We love it. When I tell you, if you would have told the 18 year old version of me dropping out of college that you'd get into this crazy bitcoin thing that has a real chance to change the world and people would want to come up and give you a hug and take a picture and have a chat about bitcoin with you. Like, I wouldn't believe you for a second. I am so grateful for this life and for the relationship I have with you guys. You're never bothering me. You're never not. Like, please. And so I, I must have hugged a dozen of you guys and your families along my road trip with my fiance. And it was such a joy. So just, I want to say to you guys how much I appreciate the support and the relationship I have with the community and how much you guys care about me. You guys, really, for a lot of you long term bitcoiners, I've grown up in front of your eyes. I've gone from college dropout to, you know, on my way to hopefully getting married next summer. And you guys really care about me and my company and it means a lot. It really does. I don't take it for granted. So for those of you listening that I did get to meet, it was awesome meeting you guys, meeting some of your kids, your significant others, taking some photos, sharing some hugs. And if I see you guys out, please say hi. I really genuinely, from the bottom of my heart, I wouldn't have it any other way. I hope I meet all of you someday. So cool. Okay, I'll talk to you guys later. See ya.