Podcast
The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro · EN
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events!
39episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Shipping for Dummies
2d ago00:57:34Tap to summarizeJacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation--Referenced in the Show:Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyerWebsite: www.vieresearch.comBox book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
Transcribe →Frontlines: Ukraine, Iran, oil markets, and what the World Cup reveals about global politics
1w ago00:50:17Tap to summarizeCrosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.--Referenced in the Show:Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Is The War Over?
2w ago00:59:21Tap to summarizeHamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance(03:49) - Is the War Over(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →The Cartel Math Isn't Mathing
3w ago00:55:34Tap to summarizeJacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro and Framing(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez(02:44) - Victor Background and Career(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism(10:25) - Morena and Military Power(15:29) - Future of Militarization(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities(22:26) - Will the US Intervene(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong(54:24) - Closing and Outro--Referenced in the Show:Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Crosspost: Frontlines "Hormuz to AI"
4w ago00:41:21Tap to summarizeYou might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag. Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.--Referenced in the Show:Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Who Killed the Florida Orange?
Jun 300:52:36Tap to summarizeFlorida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.Alex's article below!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton(24:25) - Oranges Through History(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell--Referenced in the Show:Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Are the Cartels Winning?
May 2100:54:26Tap to summarizeIoan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:33) - Name Pronunciation(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy(14:28) - US Role and Intervention(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk(27:11) - US Role In Mexico(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting(53:01) - Closing And Links--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Static, Not Strategic
May 1400:58:27Tap to summarizeOur favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:08) - Sim is Back(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy(26:15) - NATO Threat Question(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro--Sim's Work:AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Warp Speed for Everything
May 601:13:49Tap to summarizeJacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too(37:43) - China Fears Volatility(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race(42:05) - AI Slips Control(43:09) - Energy Limits Return(44:52) - Automation And Work(47:22) - All Swans Black(52:36) - Politics Need New Story(57:50) - Cities For New Economy(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits--Referenced in the Show:Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Gross Diplomacy
Apr 2900:57:14Tap to summarizePeru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox(26:38) - Instability Origins(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy(36:57) - US China Reality Check(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism(49:52) - No Offers From Washington(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void(56:44) - Closing and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →