Podcast
The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro · EN
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events!
32episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Are the Cartels Winning?
2w ago00:54:26Tap to summarizeIoan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:33) - Name Pronunciation(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy(14:28) - US Role and Intervention(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk(27:11) - US Role In Mexico(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting(53:01) - Closing And Links--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Static, Not Strategic
3w ago00:58:27Tap to summarizeOur favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:08) - Sim is Back(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy(26:15) - NATO Threat Question(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro--Sim's Work:AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Warp Speed for Everything
4w ago01:13:49Tap to summarizeJacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too(37:43) - China Fears Volatility(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race(42:05) - AI Slips Control(43:09) - Energy Limits Return(44:52) - Automation And Work(47:22) - All Swans Black(52:36) - Politics Need New Story(57:50) - Cities For New Economy(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits--Referenced in the Show:Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Gross Diplomacy
Apr 2900:57:14Tap to summarizePeru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox(26:38) - Instability Origins(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy(36:57) - US China Reality Check(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism(49:52) - No Offers From Washington(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void(56:44) - Closing and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Fertilizer 101
Apr 2200:52:03Tap to summarizeJosh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (01:15) - War Context and Stakes(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage(06:12) - Why US Lags Production(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained(10:47) - China and State Strategy(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve(16:25) - Investment Reality Check(19:00) - Food Security Imperative(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps(26:44) - Survey Skepticism(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →The Off Ramp Is Right Now
Apr 1600:52:44Tap to summarizeJosef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:36) - Prewar Oil Market Setup(02:24) - War Impact and Price Paths(05:15) - Ceasefire Doubts and Escalation(09:02) - Markets vs Reality Gap(10:32) - Supply Now Product Later(12:47) - Trump Strategy and Nuclear Endgame(16:03) - Drill Baby Drill Reality Check(18:53) - Can Americas Output Replace Gulf(20:57) - Energy Hegemony and China Angle(25:18) - Allies Drift and US Quandary(27:18) - Biofuels Reality Check(29:38) - War Changes Everything(31:13) - New Supply Hunt Worldwide(32:59) - Policy Reversals for Security(39:31) - Pipelines LNG and Takeaway(40:38) - Global Plays Beyond Canada(42:36) - 2030s Demand vs Efficiency(46:19) - Portfolio Positioning in Energy(49:48) - Risks That Break the Thesis(51:39) - Closing and Sign Off--Referenced in the Show:Josef's Site - https://schachterenergyreport.ca/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →The View From Delhi
Apr 300:55:58Tap to summarizeKabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:57) - Global Economy Worries(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained(03:26) - Why Dubai Matters(04:14) - India View on War(06:46) - Economic Fallout at Home(08:56) - Politics and Nonalignment(11:40) - Cooking Gas Stove Detour(12:51) - What Can India Do(13:55) - Energy Dependence Reality(15:01) - Iran Ties and JCPOA(18:25) - Trump Exit and Trust(24:58) - China Perception and Border(27:12) - Galwan Shifts Public Mood(28:36) - Russia As China Counterweight(29:28) - China Benefits From Gulf War(30:51) - Pakistan Diplomatic Surge(32:46) - Islamabad Reenters Washington(34:54) - Pakistan Security Leverage(37:21) - Asymmetric War Lessons(39:23) - India Pakistan Conventional Focus(42:10) - Iranian Frigate And US India Ties(44:56) - India Best Case Strait Outcome(49:28) - Gulf Partnerships And Multipolarity(54:48) - Closing Thanks And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Kabir Taneja - https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/kabir-taneja--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Soft Power is Underrated
Apr 101:07:14Tap to summarizeChase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question(03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps(06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation(09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios(15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock(21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real(27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes(32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift(33:32) - China Soft Power Play(34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes(35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery(37:02) - What To Do With 401k(40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet(44:19) - Pre War Market Themes(47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium(50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy(55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate(01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro--Referenced in the Show:Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Renegade Scottish Economics
Mar 2300:54:52Tap to summarizeJacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome And Setup(01:30) - Why Scotland Now(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization(31:20) - Searching For Analogies(34:19) - Ireland And Independence(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate(46:41) -Future Growth Model(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision(53:56) - Closing--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →Firepower Is Not a Strategy
Mar 1900:24:45Tap to summarizeSolo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate. --Timestamps:(00:27) - Why No US Attack(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction(06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic(07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout(08:43) - Hardliners Take Over(10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy(11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves(12:43) - Allies China And Shipping(15:06) - South Pars Escalation(16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage(17:36) - Is The Framework Broken(18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting(19:38) - White House Meme Strategy(21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock(23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
Transcribe →