The Contrarian's Jen Rubin and Global Affairs Expert Elise Labott

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Jim Acosta Show
Episode: The Contrarian's Jen Rubin and Global Affairs Expert Elise Labott
Release Date: June 18, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Jim Acosta Show, host Jim Acosta engages in a multifaceted discussion with Jen Rubin of The Contrarian and global affairs expert Elise Labott. The conversation delves into pressing geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, examines internal political dynamics within the U.S., and critiques recent policy decisions affecting vulnerable communities.

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1. Trump’s Potential Involvement in the Iran-Israel Conflict

Key Points:

• Trump’s fluctuating stance on military involvement between Iran and Israel mirrors his unsteady foreign policy approach.
• Jen Rubin criticizes Trump's potential military actions as hypocritical, especially given his past criticisms of George W. Bush's handling of the Iraq War.

Notable Quotes:

• Rubin: “Trump is now just deciding whether he wants to be the big man on campus… with this phony rationale.” [00:19]
• Jim Acosta: “...it’s so hypocritical now for Trump to be sort of on the verge of plunging the US into a military conflict in the Middle East.” [00:19]

Discussion: Rubin argues that Trump’s current posture towards potential military engagement is inconsiderate of the lessons from past conflicts, particularly highlighting the flawed rationale behind the Iraq War initiated under George W. Bush. She emphasizes Trump’s inconsistent messaging and the lack of a coherent strategy, suggesting that his actions are more about personal assertion than national interest.

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2. Consequences of Military Engagement in the Middle East

Key Points:

• Heavy consequences of entering Middle Eastern conflicts, including the protection of American installations and potential cycles of retribution.
• The inefficacy of regime change as a strategy, drawing parallels to historical interventions that led to unintended negative outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• Rubin: "There are heavy consequences if we do this. If people don't recall getting involved in Middle East wars, regime change does not work out well and it does not end well." [03:35]
• Acosta: "It's a lot... causing unintended consequences." [03:46]

Discussion: The conversation highlights the vulnerabilities of U.S. military assets in the Middle East, referencing a New York Times map showing that many troops would have minimal time to respond to incoming threats. Rubin warns that such engagements could spiral into endless cycles of attack and retaliation, reminiscent of past conflicts where regime change efforts backfired, leading to greater instability and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS.

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3. Internal U.S. Political Dynamics and MAGA Splintering

Key Points:

• The fragmentation of the MAGA movement, with prominent figures like Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz clashing publicly.
• Concerns that internal conflicts within Trump’s base could undermine his political leverage and decision-making.

Notable Quotes:

• Rubin: "These people operate in a cocoon of yes men and yes women… they are pathetically undereducated about the most important topics." [13:04]
• Acosta: "The splinter and MAGA is real, Marjorie Taylor Greene is going off in one direction, Lindsey Graham's going off in one direction… this really poses a threat to Trump's political base." [12:14]

Discussion: Rubin critiques the depth of knowledge among some MAGA supporters and lawmakers, arguing that their lack of informed perspectives hampers effective governance. Acosta adds that the visible infighting among MAGA figures could erode Trump’s support base, potentially leading to reduced political stability and influence.

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4. Immigration and the Weaponization of Government Agencies

Key Points:

• Trump’s administration’s aggressive stance on immigration, including the arrest of public officials by ICE.
• Rubin warns that such actions signify a move towards fascist tactics, using force to intimidate and suppress opposition.

Notable Quotes:

• Acosta: “Isn’t that exactly what he is doing? That is exactly what he is doing. It was projection.” [16:13]
• Rubin: “He is using violence. He's physically putting hands on lawmakers, on a judge… This is what fascists do.” [16:51]

Discussion: The discussion turns to the Trump administration’s approach to immigration enforcement, highlighting recent high-profile arrests orchestrated by ICE. Rubin condemns these actions as authoritarian, drawing parallels to fascist regimes that employ violence to consolidate power and silence dissent. She underscores the erosion of due process and the dangers of unchecked governmental aggression.

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5. Shutdown of the LGBTQ Youth Suicide Hotline: Politics of Cruelty

Key Points:

• The Trump administration’s decision to discontinue the LGBTQ youth services component of the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline.
• Acosta and Rubin label this move as part of a broader strategy of cruelty designed to appease extremist elements within the administration’s base.

Notable Quotes:

• Acosta: “...the Politics of Cruelty. Donald Trump has figured out that the politics of cruelty will pay dividends with people in his base.” [22:14]
• Rubin: “...provision of a youth suicide hotline in this country when all of this money is being wasted in all these other cockamamie ways? Shameful.” [21:23]

Discussion: Rubin passionately criticizes the elimination of support services for LGBTQ youth, deeming it a calculated act of malice aimed at bolstering Trump's appeal among his most extreme supporters. Acosta echoes this sentiment, highlighting the dire consequences for vulnerable populations and the moral bankruptcy of such policy decisions.

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6. Closing Remarks and the Role of Independent Media

Key Points:

• Appreciation for Jen Rubin and The Contrarian as exemplars of independent media efforts combating misinformation.
• Emphasis on the importance of diverse, truth-focused journalism in preserving democratic values.

Notable Quotes:

• Rubin: “Here there’s a sense of camaraderie, a sense that we are in this democracy fight together.” [21:12]
• Acosta: “A lot of it starts with just, you know, sticking to our guns in independent media.” [21:47]

Discussion: In their closing remarks, both Acosta and Rubin commend the role of independent media outlets in challenging mainstream narratives and fostering a more informed public. They stress that maintaining journalistic integrity and focusing on truth are essential components in the struggle to uphold democracy against rising threats of misinformation and authoritarianism.

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Conclusion

This episode of The Jim Acosta Show provides a comprehensive exploration of current geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel, while also addressing significant domestic political issues. Through insightful dialogue with Jen Rubin and Elise Labott, Acosta sheds light on the potential ramifications of aggressive foreign policies, the fracturing of political movements, and the harmful impacts of policies targeting marginalized communities. The conversation underscores the critical need for responsible leadership and the preservation of democratic principles in the face of mounting challenges.

Transcript

[Jim Acosta]

All right, welcome, everybody, to the Jim Acosta show. It is Wednesday, and Trump says he may or may not join in on the war between Iran and Israel. As you can see, my big guest today is Jen Rubin of the Contrarian. Jen, it's great to see you.

[Jen Rubin]

It is great. This is why I love Substack. I invite you over to my house, and then you invite me over to your house.

[Jim Acosta]

Exactly. That's it. I make dinner one night, you make it the next night. We all get to eat. It's fun. But no, I mean, there's so much going on right now. And honestly, I don't know about you, but I am getting lots of early 2000s flashbacks with all of this news about Israel and Iran and how Trump may go into this war. I was pointing this out on my show yesterday. I was out on the campaign trail with Trump in 2016, and the way he went after George W. Bush and the way he handled the war in Iraq. And so it was blistering. And it was one of the more shocking things I'd ever seen, Trump going after a Republican president, George W. Bush, but he got away with it, and it paid dividends for him. But it's so hypocritical now for Trump to be sort of on the verge of plunging the US Into a military conflict in the Middle East. And I'm just curious what your thoughts are on all of this, Jim, because to me, there's a lot of different ways this can go.

[Jen Rubin]

Well, I think it's even worse, in a sense, because George Bush convinced himself, or at least his advisors, maybe Dick Cheney convinced him, that Iraq really did have weapons of mass destruction. Trump knows because his own intelligence services told him that Israel is not on the verge of weaponizing a nuclear weapon. So he knows that this hurry up and do it, false urgency, false preemptive rationale is wrong. So he is now just deciding, I think, who knows what he is deciding whether he wants to be big man on campus. You know, presidents often do foreign policy when domestic policy is not going well. And domestic policy is not going well.

[Jim Acosta]

Not going well.

[Jen Rubin]

It's a way, a little pick me up after the birthday parade went down the tubes. It's a way for him to kind of assert himself and all with this phony rationale. A week ago, remember, he was telling the Israelis, don't attack, let negotiate. And so Bibi did it anyway. Now he pretends he was for this all along. Bibi turns around and says, well, why don't you guys get into the war? And now he's caught. So I don't know what he's going to do. No one knows what he wants to do. But I think three things are pretty clear. First, Bibi Netanyahu made a horrific gamble, almost unimaginable, that he would start this with the intended goal of ending Iran's nuclear weapons program, knowing that he would have to rely on Donald Trump. Is that insane? I mean, has he talked to anybody in the United States? It is this fantasy that he thinks he can get Trump to be reliable or to do anything from point A to point B. That's not happening. So that's number one. Number two is there are heavy consequences if we do this. If people don't recall getting involved in Middle east wars, regime change does not work out well and it does not end well. We have. There was a great map, I think the New York Times had it, of all of the installations with American personnel, American equipment throughout the Middle East. There's no way we can protect it all.

[Jim Acosta]

So fine, I saw that through the New York Times. It said that many of these troops in the region would only have minutes to take cover through from an incoming, incoming Iranian missile. That's according to the New York Times.

[Jen Rubin]

Exactly. And so we would be instantly dragged into a cycle of hitting and retribution. And hitting and retribution. By the way, hard to be the salesman who brokers a deal when you are a combatant in the war.

[Jim Acosta]

That's right.

[Jen Rubin]

Keep that in mind. And lastly, you know, what Bibi Netanyahu is really up to, I think, is regime change. Because even if they knock out Florida, let's say we give them one of these.

[Jim Acosta]

The bunker busting bombs.

[Jen Rubin]

Yeah, bunker busting bombs. And it goes down beneath the earth and it does blow this thing up. They can rebuild. It may take a few years, but this notion that they're gonna solve this problem forever without regime change is nuts. And oh, by the way, regime change is also a nutty principle. It. It doesn't work. What you get may be worse. That country may become a haven for terrorists and may unleash God knows what. We will have nuclear materials spread around that country for anyone to get their hands on. I don't think he has thought this through well. And now two guys, one in Israel, one in the United States, playing war to manipulate public opinion, to raise their own profile, to keep their government intact. And oh, by the way, can Congress here do its job? Can Congress have a role to play? They are supposed to take votes on authorization or use of force. And poor Tim Kaine in the Senate is saying, hey, me, me. We have a role here. So it's about time they discovered they really were the first branch of government. They have a role.

[Jim Acosta]

That's exactly right. And I mean, you know, lots of hypocrisy going on here. I mean, first of all, back in 2013, Trump tweeted, Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate. Not skilled. Exclamation point. He wrote back on November 10th of 2013. So there's always. Yes, there is always a tweet, as we used to say, covering Donald Trump. And, you know, I remember, Jen, when Bibi Netanyahu came to Washington during the Obama administration, I was covering the Obama White House at that time. And there were times that they could get furious. But the most furious I ever saw the Obama people ever get was when Netanyahu gave that joint speech to a joint session of Congress and was basically critical of Obama's handling of Iran and the Iran nuclear deal. That was the most furious I'd ever seen them. And the Iran nuclear deal, as flawed as it might have been, was bringing the world together, the world's powers together, to keep Iran in a box and to keep that nuclear program in a box. Netanyahu wanted to get rid of it, and then Donald Trump did get rid of it. And so what are you left with? You're left with military action. And as you said, there are lots of different ways that this can go. I remember covering the Iraq war back in the 2000s. You take off, you take out Saddam Hussein, you create a vacuum. What happened, the creation of isis, it emboldened Iran at that time. Lots of unintended consequences.

[Jen Rubin]

You make a really good point, Jim, and that is, if Donald Trump had not taken us out of the jcpoa, or we would not be here. They would be. Of course they cheat. They would be cheating around the edges. But we would have inspectors on the ground. We would have a longer lead time. Netanyahu says, well, they're now on the verge of weaponization. Let's just pretend for a moment that's true. Well, we didn't know earlier because we don't have inspectors on the ground, because he and Trump thought the JCPOA was a rotten thing. Let me kind of explain sort of my thinking on this, and I think this will help some of the other your listeners. I didn't think the JCPOA was airtight enough. I wanted a tougher deal. And I thought had Obama used a little bit more threat of force he could have gotten a better deal, right? Wrong. Whatever. We got that deal, then the decision to take that away with nothing, I thought was idiotic. It's not the best deal in the world. It could have been better. It should have been broader to include things like missiles. But what's your plan B? They never had a plan B. They never did. And the more I would argue with these people, the more I would say, well, now they have leverage. Really? What leverage? We're separated from our allies, and then time goes along and they say, oh, we don't have any diplomatic deal in place, we better resort to force. And so now I'm opposed to use of force because this whole thing has just been one colossal stupidity after another. And what really scares me, Jim, one of the most important reasons I do not want there to be a war, I do not want this president, this Secretary of State, this head of National Intelligence to be running a war. They can't operate a parade. Literally, they cannot run a good parade.

[Jim Acosta]

They can't run a signal chat without, you know.

[Jen Rubin]

Exactly. I mean, this is absolutely petrifying to me that these people could be running a war.

[Jim Acosta]

You're absolutely right. And I mean, you know, his own inner circle is going rogue. I'm sure you're seeing this drama with the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Apparently, on June 10th at 5:30 in the morning, she tweeted out this cryptic 3 minute video, according to Politico, warning that the political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. And Trump did not like this, apparently thought that was like, you know, speaking out of school and so on. And I suppose he's right in that regard. You know, you shouldn't have your Director of National Intelligence going one way and you going the other. But at the same time, as you just said earlier on, it was sort of hard to pin down where they were on any of this. I mean, even today, Trump is saying, we may do it, we may not do it. Where are you? I don't think even he knows and he doesn't know.

[Jen Rubin]

And does this instill confidence in our. Does this instill confidence in Israel? If they take confidence from this, they really are off the balance beam. And, you know, there's one other aspect of it, and I am trying to get a sense from my friends in Israel whether this is gonna come into play. The longer this goes on in Israel and the more rockets that do fall, there may be a point at which the Israeli public says, gosh, we thought Iron Dome was gonna protect us.

[Jim Acosta]

I think you are so right. I was thinking about this too. This is revealed vulnerabilities in Iron Dome. Exactly. Which is another unintended consequence in this.

[Jen Rubin]

Exactly. And so they may be saying, well, it's one thing if you get rid of the program entirely, but if we're just gonna have another d, why have 24 people died? Why have, you know, 600 and some odd people been injured? Why have we had damage? And oh, by the way, haven't they just made a case to the Iranians that what they really need is more ballistic missiles so they can carry this on longer and more intensely? I just don't see that they've thought two steps ahead or even one step ahead.

[Jim Acosta]

And look what's happened with Russia and Ukraine. The way that the Ukrainians have been able, able to improvise and, and adapt and fight this war with drones. You just don't know how this is going to play out, militarily speaking. And we're just in a different, like asymmetrical landscape right now. And the other thing we have to talk about, Jen, is the way this has just dropped a bunker busting bomb on the heart of maga. I mean, they're just going in all sorts of different directions. There's this rift widening and MAGA world. Trump supporters, Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz are duking it out. I was looking at, you know, there's one video clip that went viral of Tucker Carlson asked Ted Cruz how many people are in Iran? Which I thought was a terrific. I hate to praise Tucker Carlson because he is such a nut and he was so crazy about January 6th that I was just like, he's lost it. But the way he goes after Ted Cruz and sort of reveals his sort of, you know, very one dimensional view of this, I thought was, I hate to say it was rather brilliant, but what were your thoughts?

[Jen Rubin]

And it was not just his one dimensional view of it, but his total ignorance. People know nothing. It's one thing if some guy from Texas doesn't know the percentage of Shia and Sunni that are in Iran. But this guy presents himself as not only a U.S. senate, but the greatest authority on national security. He ran for president, he knows it all. He knew enough to contradict every Democrat that was there and he doesn't know the basic facts. I tell this to our viewers and our readers all the time. You would be shocked when you find out how little lawmakers know. And I am so sure you have had the same experience. You are stunned how well the President.

[Jim Acosta]

Of the United States might be one of those persons. But anyway, I take your point.

[Jen Rubin]

Yes. I mean, you would think that. Do they just, like, not even read the newspaper? Some of this information you can pick up if you're mildly informed. But these people operate in a cocoon of yes men and yes women, and they get clippings, which consist of all the nice news that reporters and other stories say about them. They are pathetically undereducated about the most important topics. And it sure would be nice, by the way, even if it's going to be junk. This administration actually briefed members of Congress.

[Jim Acosta]

Well, that's true.

[Jen Rubin]

Assets in the area. What has Israel accomplished? What is the lay of the land? They haven't briefed anyone because they don't know what's going on either.

[Jim Acosta]

Well, and Pete Hexseth was testifying up on Capitol Hill. Not exactly inspiring confidence. As for Senator Ted Cruz, I wasn't aware he was still a senator. I thought he was just a podcaster these days. I mean, he just. I'm being facetious, but he seems to be podcasting quite a bit and lawmaking. Not a whole lot, I just have to say. But, I mean, the splinter and MAGA is real, Marjorie Taylor Greene is going off in one direction, Lindsey Graham's going off in one direction, and they're all over the place. And this, I think, really poses a threat to Trump's political base. He could totally, I think, blow it to bits here. And my sense of it is, Jen, is that this may make him not want to do this, because his political base is sort of like his precious. It's like the Lord of the Rings and the ring. It's his precious. And the last thing he wants to do is toss that into the mountain, into the fiery mountain, you know, and do away with it. I just don't see it happening, particularly.

[Jen Rubin]

When he can do nothing, because he can just continue to make these fiery statements, say we're helping Israel and they are on the defensive side and not rattle anyone. So if there's a path of least resistance, that Donald Trump, I think, is going to take it. And I think what we've seen over and over again, this is the taco thing, he always chickens out whoever is last to him. Whenever he has to take a risk, whenever his. The. The metal is really there, and he has to risk doing something super unpopular, like actually enacting those terrorists, like actually telling TikTok it has to sell, he will stall, stall, stall. And I bet my bottom dollar that he is saying just Wait a few days, a few, you know, weeks. Bibi will take care of it, and then I won't have to do anything.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah, and he has the attention span of like an 8th grader on TikTok. I mean, last week he was at war with Los Angeles. Now he's pondering war with Iran. Next week it'll be something else. And I just have to think, as you said, he's. He's going to weigh this and see his own. So. And this may be one of those instances where Trump caring about his own self interest may end up being the right thing to do in the end.

[Jen Rubin]

Broken clock. Right is right twice a day.

[Elise Labott]

So.

[Jen Rubin]

Absolutely. Let's, you know, hope for once he's stumbled into, you know, a good answer.

[Jim Acosta]

And, Jen, I don't want to hold you up all day, but I did want to get into immigration a little bit. I'm sure you saw that the comptroller in New York City was arrested by ice. This was just days after Senator Alex Padilla was taken down by ICE agents in Los Angeles. I mean, I just, you know, you and I have studied politics in this town for some time now. I mean, Donald Trump during the campaign said time and again, oh, the government is being weaponized against me. Oh, I'm a political prisoner. Oh, me and my people were being put through the wringer, and so on. Isn't that exactly what he is doing? That is exactly what he is doing. It was projection.

[Jen Rubin]

Absolutely. And it's even worse than that because he's using violence. He's physically putting hands on lawmakers, on a judge in Wisconsin who was arrested for simply conducting her courtroom in a manageable fashion. He had the mayor of Newark arrested. He is prosecuting Representative Iver. This is what fascists do. They use force. They use violence, not only for the purpose of shattering and rattling the person there, but in sending a message, don't you come and mess with us, because if we can do this to a US Senator, just think what we can do to you. And Padilla in that great speech yesterday, made exactly that point. So it's not only as if that were not bad enough weaponizing the. The system, because, of course, he's going forward with the prosecution of Representative MacGyver. He is going forward with the prosecution of Judge Dugan. But that in the lead up to it, there is now seemed to be a new directive which is violent is okay at the least. Provocation at no provocation. Go ahead, rough those guys up. I don't know that we have ever had a federal Law enforcement agency that was kind of designated to be so aggressive, unnecessarily aggressive, unnecessarily provocative, unnecessarily violent. And this is why Padilla was warning that, you know, this, this way leads to fascism. This is the path to fascism.

[Jim Acosta]

And it's. It's almost. It has, I think, the resemblance of a Putin style thugocracy. You know, we can just send the cops out to rough people up. And it's not really clear which law enforcement agency the cops are with. They're in masks, they're wearing uniforms, but they might be plain clothes. I mean, what is this? It's just. It strikes me as a thugocracy. I mean, it is fascist, no question about it. But that's almost putting too fancy a word on it. It's just thuggishness.

[Jen Rubin]

Couldn't agree more. It really is. And this fear of, you know, guys in black masks getting out of a van. We've now had already instances in which people are, you know, doing damage, you know, impersonating people. What if someone really is kidnapped? What if someone really is snatched off the street and held for ransom? What if someone's house is ransacked? You know, once they break down all of the norms and all of the rules, people literally don't know who. Who and what to believe. And that's their end goal. And it's just rule. This is just, you know, right. You know, big might makes right, not. Not anything else.

[Jim Acosta]

No question about it. And it just seems to me that, you know, some smart person at the ACLU or one of, you know, Norm Eisen's wonderful people, Mark alliance, somebody's going to come up with a special formula for the law. The case that needs to be filed in whatever court it has to be filed that takes this stuff on. Because it just seems to me that we've lost the plot here in terms of due process. It's just. It's out the window.

[Jen Rubin]

I couldn't agree more. And I'm sure they are thinking about it. Unfortunately, this Supreme Court and others have made it very hard, as you know, to sue law enforcement and officials. But I have confidence they will come up with something because this is really completely untenable, completely un American.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah. Last thing, Jenna. I swear I'll let you go. The success of the Contrarian has been a sight to behold. My hat is off to you guys. I think it's absolutely wonderful. And to me, it's kind of a reminder, like, you know, I think you once came from sort of right, leaning Political commentary and norm from left leaning political commentary, you've come in, you've joined forces and it sort of underlines to me where we are in this country right now. It's not a right left world. We're in a pro democracy versus anti democracy world. And I guess, what's this ride been like for you? And then I swear to God I'll let you go.

[Jen Rubin]

It has been more fun than I've ever had in my professional career. I hope you are finding the same. Not only do you have the liberty to say what you want and to reach audiences, but this porous phone where you can reach out, we can really feel the audience and also that we do things like this in, you know, the legacy billionaire media. You know, NBC and CBS don't team up for a podcast or for a live.

[Jim Acosta]

That's true.

[Jen Rubin]

And here there's a sense of camaraderie, a sense that we are in this democracy fight together. So I've been loving it. I thank you for all you're doing. You yourself have been a tremendous success and we've all learned you don't need all that fancy sets and all those.

[Jim Acosta]

That's true.

[Jen Rubin]

All you need is a phone and a person that has credibility with the audience.

[Jim Acosta]

Absolutely no question about. And I think it's great. And as my friend Olivia Troy says, the cause comes first. And I think that, you know, if we just keep our eyes on that prize, I, I really. And I, you know, this is based on what I saw over the weekend with the no Kings protest. I really do think that, you know, I think we can get through this. And a lot of it starts with just, you know, sticking to our guns in independent media. I really do. A lot of it does do.

[Jen Rubin]

I absolutely do.

[Jim Acosta]

Oh, great to see you, Jen. Thanks so much. Really appreciate it.

[Jen Rubin]

Thanks for having me. It's so nice to see you again.

[Jim Acosta]

We'll do it again. Hope to do it again soon. All right, take care. All right. That was the great Jen Rubin. And, you know, it's so true. I mean, you know, this, this is kind of what it's all about these days. That's why I wanted to ask that last thing at the end because, you know, people can come from, you know, people might say, you know, Jim, you know, maybe you should have some MAGA people on. Maybe you should have some Trump people on. I know what they're going to do. They're not going to tell the truth. I mean, maybe I can find one person who might kind of tell the truth here or there. But I can talk to Republicans, I can talk to centrists, I can talk to independents, I can talk to progressives. And by and large, those folks are, no matter where they are on the political spectrum when it comes to, you know, taxes or abortion rights or healthcare, a variety of other issues. They're all on the same page when it comes to the American way of life and the Democratic freedoms and protections that we all hold so dear in this country. I want to try to get to my friend Elise labet. I might be coming to her a hair early, so we'll see if she is there and is ready to pop on. Because I do want to continue this conversation on what is taking place in the Middle East. I can't tell you that I'm the same kind of national or foreign policy expert, global affairs expert that Elise Lavit is or Barbara Starr or some of these other wonderful folks. But I do have some experience covering some of this stuff. And this is a real pinch that we're all in right now. Elise, how are you? Where are you right now? You're in the car.

[Elise Labott]

So my cosmopolitics community knows that I'm bad at math, but when I'm in California right now.

[Jim Acosta]

Oh, amazing.

[Elise Labott]

I'm driving from. I'm driving from. Sorry, I'm driving from Long Beach. We were driving in San Diego. I'm with my CFR military fellow and we're driving from San Diego to San Francisco.

[Jim Acosta]

Oh, my goodness.

[Elise Labott]

And so we're driving to LA. And when Matt said, Can you do 4:30? I was thinking, I was thinking 4:30 local.

[Jim Acosta]

Oh, goodness, no problem.

[Elise Labott]

So sorry if you see my bobblehead, but I'm. At least my mind is clear.

[Jim Acosta]

No, no, that's okay. That's wonderful and great for you for being out on the West Coast. I was in San Francisco last week. Me and my buddies are. We're talking about doing maybe a town hall in LA in a few weeks.

[Elise Labott]

Yeah, we're working on some of San Francisco too. That'd be a great community for you to do something too.

[Jim Acosta]

Totally. I love it out there. I love California. I can't get enough of it. When I go out there, I'm like, why don't I live here? It's wonderful here, you know, like the weather is great and D.C. blah. But at least I got. I got to get right to it. Since you're in a car and who the hell knows what's going to happen? Are you on the 405 or the 5 or one of those.

[Elise Labott]

I'm on the 405.

[Jim Acosta]

You know, the 405 in the O.C. you know, maybe you can pop in and say hi to Seth Cohen. But anyway, I'll stop joking around your thoughts on what's happening with Israel and Iran right now. I am just, I'm a little worried that this is heading in a direction where the forces that be, the powers that be, do not have the ability to slam on the brakes. And I just, just curious what you're thinking right now. I mean, when the Ayatollah is saying that if the US Gets involved and, and you know, becomes involved militarily, that would cause irreparable damage to Americans. And of course he has to be talking about US Forces in the region. But your thoughts on all of this?

[Elise Labott]

Well, I think I can ease your mind a little bit.

[Jim Acosta]

Okay.

[Elise Labott]

I don't think my personal opinion, and I could be wrong, and I have been wrong before, but I don't think Trump's going to get involved. I think he wants to. When he's saying we, we're going to bomb Iran, we're going to bomb Iran, I think he's attaching himself to Israel because Israel's winning and he wants to use the turn of phrase to make him look like he's winning. Okay. The one thing you would see if the US Was going to be helping the Israelis on this campaign, we don't see that yet. That underground nuclear facility at Fordo, and we don't see that yet. I think the rhetoric by Trump, he's trying to attach himself to rhetoric that gives himself leverage with Iran. We're going to bomb you. We're going to join this campaign. The US Joining the military campaign with Israel would be the one thing that could get Iran back to the table.

[Jim Acosta]

Interesting.

[Elise Labott]

Incredible threat of US Force.

[Jim Acosta]

But if that force is applied, if that force.

[Elise Labott]

I think rhetoric is irresponsible. Yeah, I think the rhetoric is irresponsible. I think threatening to kill the so called Supreme Leader, you know, that's highly irresponsible. But I just think Trump's not thinking through what he's saying. And I also think he's, at the same time he's not choosing his words carefully. But I do think he's trying to use this to threaten the Iranians to think that the US Is joining the campaign and that's what Iran is doing, matching his rhetoric for rhetoric. I mean, Iran knows what would happen if they went after US Forces in the region.

[Jim Acosta]

Right. I mean, that would be essentially World War III or something very close to it or in the proximity of it. I mean, that, and I was saying this with Jen Rubin earlier. I do think to some extent Trump knows that this would be highly damaging to his political base. We're already seeing some of that happen with Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz. And that is his precious, as I was saying earlier, sort of a Lord of the Rings reference. And that's the last thing he wants to damage is his political base. And it would be damaged and it would be splintered maybe irreparably if he does this. And so that makes me think maybe his self interest will somehow steer him in the direction that perhaps will pull us back from the brink here. But the brinkmanship is on, it seems.

[Elise Labott]

I think the brinkmanship is definitely on. And look, I think Israel likes the fact that Trump rhetoric is, is, you know, possibly scaring the Iranians. That's why they're, that's why the Iranians are saying this to the U.S. don't you dare get involved. Look at all the risks that you can face. They don't. The Iranians do not want the US Involved because they know basically the Iranians are going to be, are given a choice right now. Regime survival or your nuclear program once they come to the table. The nuclear program is really, I mean, gonna be a shell. It's already a shell of what it was, I think, but it's gonna be a minuscule shell compared to what they had and what they still have. I mean, they still have a lot.

[Jim Acosta]

No, there's no question about it. And even if you bomb it, as Jen Rubin was saying, they could try to put it back together. They will still have the. Know how to put it back together to some extent.

[Elise Labott]

That would be a very long, that would be a very long time. I mean, if the US Were to take out those nuclear facilities at Fordo and there's some reason to think that, you know, there's some stuff underground at the Natanz facility that's been damaged, but there's stuff underground. You know, if you take out all of that, it would be there. This regime will not be in place by the time they could reconstitute that.

[Jim Acosta]

But are we in this place essentially because for years Netanyahu railed against the jcpoa and because Donald Trump listened to that and said he, I'm going to get rid of it. He got rid of it.

[Elise Labott]

You know, look, we'd be, we'd probably be here anyway because the Iranians did not follow the jcpoa. I mean, they were in, you know, compliance adjacent. Yeah, you know, and you see the.

[Jim Acosta]

Oh, they're always cheating.

[Elise Labott]

There's no question from the iaea. They're not following. They weren't following. There was no way. You don't need, you don't. If it was a civil nuclear program, you don't need to enrich uranium to 60% for a civil nuclear program. They were up to something. And so I think we'd be here anyway if Israel, if that agreement was still in place, Israel would still be bombing anyway, I think.

[Jim Acosta]

You think so. And, but now we're going to find out, I suppose, where the threat of force gets you. And I mean, the, the other thing that's worrisome about this, Elise, I mean, just the other day, or this may have been in the last 24 hours, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, of all people, is the ambassador now. They are now organizing evacuations of American citizens out of Israel. And we're seeing this Iron Dome showing some vulnerabilities, and some of these missiles, some of these strikes are getting through. Is that a potential, you know, unintended consequence, all of this that the Israelis are seeing? Okay, the Iron Dome isn't foolproof. There, there, there is stuff that's going to get through. It's, it's not ironclad.

[Elise Labott]

Well, the reason why it's not ironclad is because Iran has so many missiles. You know, it can only. The capacity is pretty considerable. But I'd say what my, from what I'm hearing from sources is about, and I'm sure most of your listeners have heard the same in the news, about 1 of every 10 missiles is getting through. That's, you know, if you're launching a thousand missiles, you know, it's still a lot.

[Jim Acosta]

It's a lot. Yeah.

[Elise Labott]

And so I think Iran has, what, two, 3,000 missiles left. And so, you know, they can still keep going. They can still do damage. I think Israel, you know, look, they thought they needed to do it. I'm not sure that the nuclear program was advanced as, you know, the Israelis said it was. They might have miscalculated, I don't think. They certainly thought they were going to invite what they're getting. But, you know, they did take a calculated risk that they were certainly willing to accept a certain amount of casualties to deal with the threat that they thought they were getting. It's responsible of the US to offer evacuations of US Citizens right now, I think.

[Jim Acosta]

No, there's no question about it. I mean, you know, it's on. I mean, this is basically A war. Right now.

[Elise Labott]

It's a war. Right now. Right now. The US Is not involved in this war. They're helping Israel shoot down some incoming missiles. That's purely defensive. But once the US Undertakes a strike, it's on.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah.

[Elise Labott]

Look, and you know, the US has already been hitting the Houthis. Yep. You know, the US has kind of, again, to use the word adjacent. They're in the war adjacent. They've already been hitting Iranian proxies, but that was to, you know, combat, you know, also defensive of U.S. troops and U.S. ships in the region.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah.

[Elise Labott]

If they start. If they start attacking Iran. The US Is involved in a war with Iran. And that's one thing President Trump campaigns against, getting in these forever wars. This would be a forever war. I think I said to maybe Ryan Lizzo or something the other day, this isn't going to be a. If even if they get rid of the regime, this isn't going to be a ding dong, the witch is dead, we all join hands and, like, do a dance situation.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah.

[Elise Labott]

You know, just because they wouldn't have a leader doesn't mean the IRGC couldn't still do a lot of damage and they'd be wounded animals with nothing to lose. And I just don't think this is a war the US Wants to take on right now.

[Jim Acosta]

No. I mean, we're certainly not in Kansas any. Anymore, Dorothy. And, you know, to me, this, this reminds me of the early. This is taking. I said this to Jen. This is taking me back to the early 2000s and the old Pottery Barn rule. You break it, you bought it.

[Elise Labott]

Break it, you bought it. I was thinking that, too.

[Jim Acosta]

You break it, you bought it.

[Elise Labott]

You break it, you bought it.

[Jim Acosta]

And, you know, Israelis bought it.

[Elise Labott]

The Israelis. The Israelis bought it. I don't think the US has bought it yet. But, you know, once we're in, we're in. We're in for a penny, in for a pound. And, you know, I just don't think I can see why Israel, you know, I'm not going to. I don't know. The intelligence that they have, I think.

[Jim Acosta]

Right.

[Elise Labott]

They think the program is farther along than they wanted to. If they thought it was an existential threat and they felt they needed to take it out at this point, it wasn't an existential threat to the US and so I don't think. I can't see why the US Would want to get into a war with Iran right now.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah. I mean, taking out Saddam Hussein, you know, that might have been a notch on the Bush family's belt and everything, but it unleashed isis. It emboldened Iran. Speaking of Iran. Right, exactly.

[Elise Labott]

And ISIS could come into Iran. You know what I mean? There is a concern that, you know, a vacuum could be there, just like in Syria, just like in Libya, just like, you know, throughout the region.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah. Well, Elise, I'll let you get back to the Hotel California. You can crank up some Eagles there on the 405 and have a nice drive. You got the yacht.

[Elise Labott]

Rock on, Jim.

[Jim Acosta]

You got the yacht. Rock on.

[Elise Labott]

You know, it.

[Jim Acosta]

Isn't that a great channel that. I love that stuff. It is so good. Oh, my goodness. Yeah.

[Elise Labott]

Wait, I just want to. One last thing.

[Jim Acosta]

Yeah.

[Elise Labott]

What did you make of this U.S. colonel? Did you read about this U.S. colonel that just got fired for saying all this horrible stuff about Israel online?

[Jim Acosta]

No, I didn't see this. Let's see here.

[Elise Labott]

Yeah. U.S. colonel that was involved in Israel, in planning with Israel, you know, is being disciplined. I don't know if they got fired. I don't know what the disciplinary situation is for right now. But there was interesting by the JNs, the Jewish News Service.

[Jim Acosta]

Okay.

[Elise Labott]

And he was writing some horrible things about Israel and how he felt about, you know, Israel's policies. And it's gonna be a big story at the Pentagon coming up. I mean, you know, you have, again, this MAGA split right now between those people that are not supportive of helping Israel and those that are in the Republican Party. And I think it's gonna be a big issue.

[Jim Acosta]

No, there's no question. No, there's no question. I mean, the split that was on display between Ted Cruz and Tucker Carlson and seeing those two go at it like a couple of hyenas, you know, that to me was very illustrative of what may be to come for MAGA if Donald Trump goes through, through with this. And that is why I think he may pull back. He may see the kids fighting too much and say, you know what? You know, Marjorie, Taylor Greene's going off in one direction, Tucker is going off another. Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, that's his base. And if it splinters like that, you.

[Elise Labott]

Know, or he can let him go and see who wins.

[Jim Acosta]

Well, that's true. That's true. But I mean, that's what I'll do. His polling is so awful right now that, I mean, what he basically had left at the end of the first Trump administration was the base. And that's kind of almost what he has right now. So I can't imagine that he's going to want to jeopardize that, which is why I think he'll act in his own self interest and perhaps to your point, pull back, not, not do this, not go through with this full throttle. But very, he always does. He always does, he always, there's loyalty is always a one way street in Trump world, as we all know. Elise, great, great to see you. Enjoy Cali, great to be with you.

[Elise Labott]

We'll see you again next week, baby.

[Jim Acosta]

All right, sounds good. Okay, take care. Thanks, Elise.

[Elise Labott]

All right.

[Jim Acosta]

My friend Elise Labett chiming in from the 405. I guess as it turns out, you can substack from the 405, you know, and, and good for her that she was moving at a healthy clip there because typically on the 405 you're, you're stuck in massive traffic for hours and hours. But you know, listen, I, I, I really am throwing up the caution flag here, not to go full Tucker Carlson here. You never want to go full Tucker Carlson. I'm throwing up the caution flag here because I, you know, this was, these are the like kind of the formative years of my adult life. You know, I was in my 30s. I remember, you know, George W. Bush, Don Rumsfeld, Condoleezza Rice trying to sell the country on weapons of mass destruction, taking the country into a terrible war in the Middle East. And it just had so many awful consequences. Young people today aren't fully aware of exactly what took place, but there were so many military families that had to go through the heartache of multiple deployments there. So many families had to deal with the heartache of so many soldiers coming back dead. And I mean, as I was saying on yesterday's show, I believe the fact that we had to put aside the mission to take out Osama bin Laden, that took some 10 years to take out Osama bin Laden because of the misadventure in Iraq. And so to think that Donald Trump, who campaigned on this, he campaigned on this not once, but as at least Lab had pointed out twice, he said during the 2024 campaign he was going to get rid of all these endless wars. And to think that he would be on the brink of something like this, to me, it just goes to show you if he does go through with it, what a phony he was during the campaign to be campaigning in that fashion. But as presidents know, as people who watch the presidency, as people who cover the presidency, who study the presidency will tell you, presidents are often entranced by that siren song of go it alone foreign policy. And it is almost always at the heart of every American foreign policy blunder, when an American president goes his own way, perhaps misled by intelligence, and ends up getting the United States embroiled in a quagmire. And there is such a thing as mission creep. Not to bring back vernacular from the 70s of Vietnam, but this is a movie that Americans have seen before and older Americans have seen before. And one would think that Donald Trump has seen before, at least from the sidelines. He never served, obviously, in the military, but from the sidelines. The other thing I did want to mention, finally, is I did see this other story, and I just want to say I may start calling this segment a recurring segment, the Politics of Cruelty. And I. I just want to just make a couple of comments on this. NBC News is reporting that the Trump administration will shut down the national LGBTQ youth suicide hotline in 30 days. This is according to NBC News. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration announced Tuesday that the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline will no longer utilize its LGBTQ youth services, also known as the Press 3 option, effective July 17. Why in God's name the Trump administration would want to do something like this is beyond me. I suppose it has to do with the fact that they, from time to time, feel as though they have to throw a bone to the far religious right in this country, to the evangelical extremists that we have in this country. And it just makes me sick. There are so many young people in America who struggle with their sexuality, struggle with who they are, struggle with where their feelings lie in those formative years in their youth. And there are so many kids who take their own lives because of this very sensitive subject. And why on earth, I mean, with all the resources that we have in this country, you look at the big, beautiful bullshit bill that they want to pass in Congress, all of the tax cuts that they want to give to the very wealthy in this country, and all of the benefits that they want to give to the very top in this country. And Trump throwing a dictator military parade for himself to the tune of 40 to 50 million dollars. And he's got the US military occupying Los Angeles to the tune of 100 million dollars over the next six months. We can just throw our money away on bullshit like that, but we can't pay for a national LGBTQ youth suicide lifeline in this country. I mean, my God, again, to me, it's the politics of cruelty. Donald Trump has figured out that the politics of cruelty will pay dividends with people in his base, his precious, precious base. And how many kids will die, how many teenagers at risk? Teenagers will die because they've pulled away a suicide hotline in this country. And if you think, oh, nobody uses this hotline. Obviously it's used. And to me, it is just. It again goes to the monstrosity of the politics of cruelty that Donald Trump has fashioned for himself as President of the United States. It's not something to. I saw earlier today he planted a couple of flags over at the White House. This is according to USA Today, planted these new flag poles over at the White House. He said they were desperately needed and he would pay for them himself. Okay, fine, you're going to pay for them yourself. 88 foot tall flagpoles, one on the north lawn, one on the south lawn. And I guess this is to show how much he loves the American flag and how he loves to hug the American flag. But as I said the other day, Donald Trump can hug the American flag all he wants, but it seems to me he hates the America that we are becoming. We are becoming a more diverse, more tolerant country, more welcoming country, and he just can't stand it. He and his people just can't stand that we're becoming a more welcoming, tolerant country. And so at every turn, they want to hurt people who are different than they are. And that's not what America's all about. This country was built on our differences. E pluribus unum. Out of many 1. And the LGBTQ community in this country, they are very much part of that many. And it again is another shameful episode of the Trump politics. Cruelty. I hope that they change their mind on this. I hope somebody speaks up. The Treasury Secretary, from what I understand, Scott Besson is gay. And there are other LGBTQ members of the administration, for as much as they like to rail against it, Pete Hexeth likes to rail against it. There are members of the administration who are part of that community. Are they going to speak up and say something? Are we really going to shut down a hotline, a youth suicide hotline in this country when all of this money is being wasted in all these other cockamamie ways? Shameful. Something to think about. I hope they change course. But in the meantime, my thanks to Jen Rubin. My hats off to the folks over at the Contrarian. They're just doing gangbusters over there. And I appreciate Jen making some of her time available this afternoon to join me. Really enjoyed that conversation. I. We definitely hit a lot of subjects. And of course, my friend Elise Labett, who is roaring up or down the 405 wasn't exactly sure which way she was going there. Maybe she was making her way through the oc. She can stop in. Say hi to Seth Cohen for us. But always glad to have Lisa Laban on as well. And thank you. And also, I was on Chuck Roach's podcast earlier today, Chuck Roach, and my buddy has a new podcast out. We did this earlier today and he was asking me about my musical tastes and stuff about me and my merch. I got merch. Hang on a second, I'll show you the merch. Got some merch here. You don't have to buy it, you know, I only have a few on hand. I'll make more if people want them. But I was showing off the merch to Chuck and he, he got a chuckle out of that. But. And yes, and somebody did ask about la. I think in the comments just a few moments ago. We are plotting and scheming and coming up with ways and thinking about taking our, our town hall roadshow on the road out to Los Angeles. I think it'd be a lot of fun and I love it out there in la. And they're going through so much right now between the fires and Trump militarizing the streets there that it would be just, I think it would be wonderful to go out there and do something like that. So I'm going to be thinking about this. I'm on vacation next week. Just a little cautionary note. Housekeeping. I'll be on vacation next week, but my mind is always cooking and I'll be thinking about how we can get that accomplished here in the coming weeks. But in the meantime, thanks again everybody for, for watching. Really appreciate it. Still reporting from Washington, I'm Jim Acosta. Have a good evening, everybody. Have a good night. Take care. Bye. Bye.