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I'm Josh Hammer and this is the Josh Hammer Show. So welcome back. Hope you've all had a great week. I am personally replenish and recharge from the Passover holiday Just in time for Masters Weekend, one of the greatest weekends of the year for US Sports fans. A little bit more on that towards the end of today's show. Also, is the Republican Party trying to sell you out when it comes to a horrific, outrageous, George W. Bush style mass amnesty bill? We have the analysis on Maria Salazar's horrific, horrific legislation, the so called did the acts a little bit later in the show as well. Eli Lake of the Free Press will join us a little bit later in the show as well to assess what is the topic of today's opening monologue, which is of course the ceasefire in Iran. So just as I was powering down on Tuesday evening, ready to go offline for the final two days of the Passover holiday, literally just maybe 20, 30 minutes before powering down my phone, we got the this news that President Trump had announced this two week tentative conditional ceasefire. Now this two week ceasefire with the Islamic Republic of Iran was conditioned on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. There's a lot to be said on that. And the number one thing to be to be said is that that has thus far not actually really happened. Trump has increasingly been vocal about that. Actually, he took to Truth Social just yesterday on Thursday to say as much, to say that Iran is not upholding their end of the bargain. How do we know that? Well, because we actually have cameras and we actually have metrics, we're able to track this. So for instance, over the course of just the first couple days of this ceasefire, there were one or two vessels a day on average that were able to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That's in contrast to the roughly 150 or more vessels on a given day. We're talking here about commercial vessels, oil tankers, things like that that were happening prior to the beginning of the war on February 28th of 2026. So the Strait objectively is not open. Moreover, the mullahs, or whoever is still frankly in charge these days in the Islamic Republic of Iran, is now threatening to extort the very few ships that do go through. They're talking about taking multimillion dollar, potentially bounties just to allow the vessels to go through. They're actually seemingly in a bit of a stick the knife in and twist it kind of thing when it comes to Jared Koester and Steve Wyckoff. They're now making fun of them and saying that we will only accept payment and cryptocurrency there. So the Iranians are basically just messing with us. That's essentially what they're doing. And in fact, J.D. vance, the Vice president who has been dispatched to Pakistan, to Islamabad, by the way, what a coup for Pakistan. I mean, Pakistan is a second world country at best, maybe third world country there. Pakistan infamously was where Osama Bin Laden was being housed there in Abbottabad when the United states sent in Seal Team 6 to go ahead and take out the man who perpetrated 9 11. What a coup for Pakistan to be hosting this, this summit, or at least this anticipated summit this weekend between the United States and Iran when it comes to trying to see whether there actually is a deal to be had. Trump has been talking a lot about Iran's proposed 10 point plan in theory, and it's always in theory with the malls of Iran. This two week ceasefires is supposed to be a means towards a 10 point proposal. And again, the number one problem here, zooming out a little bit, the number one problem when it comes to Iran is that they are led by some, the most deceitful, lying people on the face of the earth. Sharia law, radical Islamism commands these people at times, commands them, permits at best, commands at worst to lie, to deceive gullible Westerners, that is to say Christians and Jews as well, to deceive Christians and Americans, Europeans, the West more generally, insofar as you can lie to them to achieve your greater goal. And we've seen this with radical Muslims going back decades and decades. And a lot of this happens at any non state level when it comes to Al Qaeda is and all the various Alphabet soup of jihadist groups at a state level. Iran is the number one institutional organ that does this on a day in day basis. It's been the number one reason why you cannot make a deal with these guys because you do not trust them. Nonetheless, Donald Trump agreed to this two week ceasefire. My personal take on this so called ceasefire is essentially as follows. I believe that Donald Trump did this to try to calm jittery markets. That is what I believe Donald Trump was thinking. Trump is, if nothing else, a businessman. He is someone who has made oodles of money in real estate deals, being a general tycoon and everything from commercial real estate to residential real estate to casinos and so forth there. He's been an avid follower of the markets for decades and decades, going back to his 20s and 30s in New York City there. And he wanted to try to calm jittery market, especially energy markets there. And Hormuz, as we explained countless times on the show over the course of Operation Epic Fury, Hormuz is a very crucial waterway because it is a means of trying to hold the energy, the energy markets of the world essentially hostage. 20% of the world's oil flows through that strait. Actually, just on Friday, we got some troubling new inflation data. It looks like the monthly inflation metric went up the most month to month in four years. But the specific gasoline metric, the gasoline metric, this is really astonishing there. The gasoline metric has gone up on a month to month basis the most in six decades. That is astonishing. I mean, literally six decades going back to the 1960s to roughly the Lyndon Johnson administration. Really crazy stuff. So that above all is what Trump is essentially trying to tamp down here. The problem again is that Iran is not upholding their end of the bargain. And the latest, actually that just happened on Friday morning is that the speaker of Iran's parliament, a man by the name of Golibov, who is one of the leaders now of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Again, this regime has been deeply crippled. He's one of the leaders there essentially said, this is essentially, this is at the time that J.D. vance was getting on the plane at Andrews Air Force Base to fly to Islamabad, Pakistan, around the same time Golubov of Iran puts on X, quote. Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented. A ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations. These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin. So J.D. vance was saying, Iran better not play us. Well, I hate to say it, but Iran is literally playing us. Like they're literally doing it in real time. They are trolling us. They are just messing with us. The notion that the United States will go ahead and unfreeze the terrorist Iranian regime's frozen assets in banks held the US Is nuts. These assets have been frozen for decades. So the whole thing is frankly a mess. It's very much an open question as to where exactly we go from here. But first, folks, just a word from our sponsor, today's show, which is Angels Studio. You know, I recently joined the Angel Guild and watched their new documentary film, Death of Recess. Let me tell you, I was not expecting this. It was a wonderful, wonderful, powerful documentary about the rise of the corrupt teachers unions led by organizations like the nea. Look, folks, for me, this is actually very personal. I come from a lineage of teachers. My mother was a teacher, my grandmother, great grandmother, all teachers. And I heard my mother all the time back when she was teaching about the way in which the teachers unions would come in and indoctrinate their kids and overall just take the classroom experience and use it not as a means of enriching the pupils, but rather as a means of ultimately enriching the teachers and all that that entails there. So kids are being pulled into all sorts of ideological battles. It ultimately is what happens when institutions protect themselves instead of children. But really, this is why platforms like Angel Studios matter, because they're willing to tell stories that others won't. So, folks, go to angel.com hammer to join the Angel Guild and watch Death of Recess right now. If you care about the future of your children, this is essential viewing. I guarantee you folks, this will not prove to be a waste of your time. So again, there's a huge question as to whether or not this sit down in Pakistan is actually even going to happen. Really? I mean, is this actually even going to happen this weekend? To me, it seems eminently possible that JD Vans could fly halfway around the world to Pakistan and Iran essentially says, just kidding, you know, the conditions were met. And then he gets on a plane and hops all the way back. So Hormuz is largely still being shut. Trump is rapidly souring on the deal in real time while the Vice President is flying halfway around the world. Meanwhile, hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon are indeed heating up. Israel has waged some pretty serious warfare against what remains of Hezbollah in in Lebanon. Recall that Hezbollah is Iran's number one Shiite Islamic proxy. Hezbollah was grievously wounded in 2024, ultimately culminating in the assassination of Hasan Nasrallah, who was the decades long head of that particular jihadist organizational hierarchy. But there still are remnants, and unfortunately pretty lethal remnants. And Israel is now is now going to war as Hezbollah rockets continue to rain down on North Netanyahu for its worth. On Thursday did tell President Trump that he will scale back upon President Trump's request. So Trump seems like he is interested in trying to make this thing work, and of course he is. This is a guy who campaigns against forever wars. Now, if in theory, if in theory, this conflict were to end right now, which I do not believe it is going to do, Trump has left all the American military assets in the region. Like, literally, they're just sitting there. Like the aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln, etc. They're just sitting there. They're off the coast in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, etc. They are essentially just waiting to be ordered to resume hostilities. So I don't think this is going to be the end, but I do think that is worth emphasizing that if this is indeed the end of Operation Epic Fury, it will be a mixed bag result. On the one hand, it will still be a very fine result because the situation in the Middle east is undoubtedly much better now than it was a month and a half ago. The Iranian Navy and the Iranian Air Force, as Secretary of War Pete Hexseth has said, are essentially non existent. The navy has essentially sunk to the bottom of the sea and the Air Force is essentially done so. Nonetheless, they still do have ballistic missiles and drones and all sorts of other offensive facing weapons capabilities. Perhaps even more to the point, they still have hundreds of kilograms, we believe, of enriched uranium. The nuclear sites have been damaged, but some of them still exist. And the regime certainly still exists, albeit in a heavily, heavily subdued, dumbed down and largely, if not entirely defanged form. So it would be a partial victory, but not a total victory if this were to actually be the end of Operation Epic Fury. Again, my read on the situation is that Donald Trump was above all trying to calm down jittery markets that he's trying to indicate, not to the Iranians, because who cares what they think? He's trying to indicate to the Europeans, to our allies in Asia, the Far East, Australia, Japan, India, whoever, that we are trying in good faith to try to reach a deal here. So this thing does not go on forever, but the Iranians are just systemically incapable of engaging in good faith negotiations. Again, I could be wrong. Maybe we'll come back here on Monday, show on Tuesday, I'll be off on Monday and we'll come back on Tuesday and there will actually be a brand new deal and maybe things will look all cheery there. I would not get my hopes up. In fact, I'm very much not getting my hopes out there. If I had to place a wager I think that hostilities will probably resume within the next week or so. Obviously we will see whether I am right or not.
