In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials.

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Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

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Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen

00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years

02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right?

05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months

06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out"

09:08 -Goldco

10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave?

13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now

16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you

18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March

19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be?

22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing"

23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals

26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame

27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel

30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up?

31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling?

33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried?

35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system?

36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week