In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital.

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Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit

4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about

7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now

8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not?

8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language

11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis?

13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil?

16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year

17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington?

19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked?

20:30 - Trump's economic endgame

23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways?

25:57 - Banks

28:12 - Viewer mail

35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week