Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update. Despite clear deterioration in the labor market — where he argues real unemployment is closer to 5.4% than the reported 4.3% — Henrik is not calling a market top yet. In fact, he sees a 30%+ rally still ahead in the Nasdaq, echoing the 25% surge in mid-2007 and the 45% explosion in 2000, both of which happened right before everything fell apart. He breaks down why the Fed is repeating the exact same mistake as 2007, why PMI numbers are widely misunderstood, and why private credit is the new subprime — only this time the dominoes are lined up in a dark room and nobody knows who's exposed to what. He also shares his current positioning and his outlook for gold and silver.

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome back Henrik

1:23 - Macro view: economy slower than expected, the jobs reality

3:46 - Why Henrik doesn't trust the jobs numbers

8:44 - Why PMI is one of the most misunderstood indicators 1

0:21 - What's keeping the market propped up

11:00 - Consumer delinquencies and private credit cracks

13:26 - The final blow-off rally: are we still in it?

16:36 - The 2000 and 2007 parallels: Nasdaq surges right before the crash

8:15 - "We have not seen the top" — 30%+ rally still ahead

20:29 - Is Henrik buying the dip right now?

25:30 - The Titanic

28:46 - The Fed making the same mistake as 2007

34:09 - Private credit: the new subprime

38:27 - Why the next crisis will be harder to backstop than 2008

40:47 - The greatest Fed policy mistake in history

44:16 - What the Fed should have done

46:29 - 2007 flashback: 125 basis points in a single month

48:46 - The Zeberg Business Cycle Model explained

53:59 - Gold and silver: why he expects a major decline from here

56:12 - Henrik's current positioning: fully risk-on

57:27 - Parting thoughts