Warsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house.

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Links:

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Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

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Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome & intro

0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it

1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt

3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment?

3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal

4:41 Still money pouring into private credit

8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets

11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk?

12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it?

14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank"

16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first

19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk?

the year

23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift"

25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming

26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive?

27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet?

27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done?

29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime?

29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition

31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations"

32:13 What is Chris watching next week?

33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817