In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer.

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Links:

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The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

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Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5%

0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now?

6:14 Market

7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money

9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 2008

9:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum

11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year

12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5%

12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal?

14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway?

19:02 Silver surging - What's going on?

21:03 The next Countrywide?

24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh

27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact

29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting?

30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts