Podcast
The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Hosted by Bernard Hickey · EN
63episodes
Episodes
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The Weekly Hoon: Budget 2026, a climate scandal, Saudi Arabia & Iran & disinformation flooding NZ's political debates
5d ago00:56:52Tap to summarizeThe podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer from Wellington and Robert Patman in Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.This edition also included discussions with Arab News Editor in Chief Faisal Abbas and disinformation researcher Sanjana Hattotuwa.This week:* Bernard and Peter began with a chat about the Government’s Budget delivered yesterday afternoon.* Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about the Government’s failure to disclose lobbyist contact on behalf of Z Energy and Fonterra with the PM’s Office over a rewrite of climate laws that shut down a climate lawsuit against Z Energy, Fonterra and others. See the background on that here.* Then Bernard, Peter, Robert talked with Faisal Abbas about the Iran conflict.* Bernard and Peter finished with a discussion with Sanjana about disinformation flooding into New Zealand in election year, including his report this week on how it has spread and deepened since 2023. We also mentioned this Microsoft report from 2022 that showed on page 79 how Russian troll farms flooded 30% more anti-vaxx disinformation into New Zealand in late 2021 and early 2022 than pumped into Australia and the United States.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey. The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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A sugar-free Budget that relies on rosy forecasts
6d ago00:14:45Tap to summarizeFinance Minister has unveiled a ‘sugar-free’ and ‘tough love’ Budget that achieves a surplus by 2028/29, a year earlier than previously forecast in December, thanks to Treasury forecasting a short energy shock that allows GDP growth to average 2.7% over the next four years. Thank you Cheese (Ashley Cheeseman), Kath, Suzanne Jansson-Bush, Steve Robinson, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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RBNZ almost hikes & eyes three hikes before election
1w ago00:20:00Tap to summarizeThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided this afternoon to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR), but it was a much closer run thing than everyone expected and the central bank has changed its forecasts to seeing three OCR hikes by the end the year. Most economists now expect three hikes in a row on July 8, September 2 and October 28, just in time for the OCR to be 3.0% by the election on November 7.For the first time, the Reserve Bank detailed how each of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, including that the three outside members, Prasanna Gai, Carl Hansen and Hayley Gourley, voted for a 25 basis point hike to 2.5%. The three Reserve Bank members, Governor Anna Breman, Assistant Governor Karen Silk and Chief Economist Paul Conway all voted to hold. Breman then used her casting vote as chair of the committee to ultimately hold. Usually, the MPC has seven members, but has yet to appoint a Deputy Governor. In the presentation above, I went through the details of the Monetary Policy Statement, the following news conference (seen below) and the key details.I also talked about my questions and the answers in the news conference on:* whether the Phillips Curve was still operating (21:14); * what the Governor would say to unemployed youth about the scarring effect of four years of high unemployment (38:32);* what the effects on inflation have been of higher inflation on regulated prices; and,* whether the Reserve Bank’s lowering of its house price inflation forecast would generate a negative wealth effect.Thank you Ian Dunn, Tanya Wintringham, AK, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Here’s the PDF of the presentation I used above.CheersBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Live with Bernard Hickey
1w ago00:45:22Tap to summarizeThis is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Weekly Hoon: Govt housing & job cuts; Iran vs Trump; Competition & banking
2w ago00:58:00Tap to summarizeThe podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer from Wellington and Robert Patman in Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.This edition also included discussions with historian and author Jonathan Lyons, PhD on the conflict with Iran and Tex Edwards from Monopoly Watch NZ about bank competition.This week:* Bernard and Peter began with a chat the Government’s social housing spending cuts and shuffles announced yesterday, along with its pre-Budget announcement about cutting 8,700 jobs.* Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about Luke Kemp’s interview with Jack Tame on Q+A last weekend about ‘limitarianism.’* Then Bernard, Peter, Robert talked about the latest in the Middle East and China with Jonathan.* Then Bernard and Peter finished with a discussion with Tex about bank competition. They mentioned Tex’s scheduled appearance at this Auckland University debate this coming Wednesday evening: Rebalancing Markets: Competition, power, and a fair economy.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey. The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Total Mobility funding cuts being finalised
3w ago00:23:29Tap to summarizeI spoke with disability advocates Blake Forbes and Nick Ruane this morning about the ongoing review of the Total Mobility subsidies provided by the Government for taxi services for disabled people. The full video is above.They met Transport Minister Chris Bishop this week to talk about the review, which is running headlong into a July 1 deadline to start a revised scheme with a lower subsidy (65% rather than 75%) and tougher eligibility criteria, designed to reduce the number of trips pensioners in Auckland are taking.It’s designed to try to cap the size of Government at 30% of GDP, despite increased costs of ageing and the growing incidence of health issues.Nick has written regularly about the review, as has Paul Singh here.Thank you Susan St John, Paul Singh, Sarah Melville, Rosemary Hipkins, Virginia McMillan, and many others for tuning into my live video with Nick Ruane and Blake Forbes! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Weekly Hoon: Trump in China & posting late at night; Luxon on migration & more climate laws rewritten
3w ago00:59:21Tap to summarizeThe podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer from Wellington and Robert Patman in Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.This edition also includes a discussion with former Productivity Commission Chair and now independent economist Ganesh R Ahirao about his substack post referring to PM Christopher Luxon’s speech on Wednesday, which included comments on migration and previewed a $300 million cut in Budget 2026’s operating allowance. This week:* Bernard and Peter began with a chat about Christopher Luxon’s speech on migration and the Budget.* Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about the Government’s move to legislate to override civil legal action against Fonterra and others over the climate actions, the Government’s recognition of voluntary nature credits markets, and its proposal to reform the Conservation Estate. Cathrine referred to these comment pieces by Marie Doole via Linked here and here.* Then Bernard, Peter Robert talked about the latest in the Middle East, China and the global rules based order. Bernard referred to an analysis about Donald Trump’s late-night social media habits.* Then Bernard and Peter finished with a discussion with Ganesh about migration and productivity.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey. The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Wednesday's Chorus Live with Bernard Hickey
3w ago00:25:49Tap to summarizeThank you Troy Baisden, Tanya Wintringham, Sue Parsons, Bryce Adams, Sam Cray, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Bernard Hickey & Verity Johnson bust the NZ debt myth
3w ago01:08:08Tap to summarizeThank you Tim, Brian Rathbone, Andrew Riddell, Carolyn Rohm, David, and many others for tuning into my live video with Verity Johnson! Join me for my next live video in the app.Here’s the PDF of the presentation I used with it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The world's oil reserves are running out
3w ago00:18:21Tap to summarizeThe Government was insistent yesterday a move to ‘Level 4’ fuel rationing was very unlikely and it’s still forecasting economic growth and relatively moderate inflation this year.It may pay for Treasury, the Finance Minister and voters in general to have a look at what the closest observers in the global oil industry were saying as recently as last night, especially now the latest suggestion of peace talks and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz have dissolved.The world’s largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, said last night global oil reserves were being drawn down at a rate of 14 million barrels per day (mbpd) while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. That tallies with other oil analysts’ estimates of reserve drawdowns of around 100mpbd, which would drag reserves down to stressful levels by June and the effective bottom of the barrel by September.JP Morgan’s analysts have been leading the market in terms of depth of detail and forecasts on oil prices and reserves. In the last couple of days, they’ve put out a note which points out that one of the reasons the oil price has not sprinted much higher than about US$105 a barrel is that global oil reserves were being drawn down rapidly.This chart shows the oil reserves estimated by JP Morgan over the last six years or so. And you can see during COVID the reserves went up because we didn’t use so much fuel. Then during 2022 because US President Joe Biden released reserves onto the market to try to limit oil price rises after Russia invaded Ukraine. And then since the beginning of March, we’ve seen global oil reserves and in particular, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, drawn down heavily as Trump and others are desperate to try to contain the rise in oil prices. The International Energy Agency also released a bunch of reserves onto the market. This was with the expectation that this would be a relatively short closure of the Strait of Hormuz. People kept expecting it’s going to open any day now, particularly once the ceasefire kicked in in April. But despite lots of juicy hints from Donald Trump on Friday and Saturday that the Iranians were doing a deal, the Iranians came back with their response to the US memorandum of understanding that Trump deemed ‘unacceptable’.The Iranians want to keep their nuclear material, to not negotiate any sort of end to their nuclear ambitions, to keep control of the Strait of Hormuz with a tollbooth, and no more Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. They want reparations from the United States for the attacks on Iran and they want the U.S. to get its bases out of the Middle East. This wasn’t the capitulation that Donald Trump has been talking about.Despite Trump’s blatherings about the strength of the US military, it’s clear that the US Navy are not putting their aircraft carrier groups, into the Strait of Hormuz because it’s too dangerous. The US attempt to escort ships out lasted just a couple of days because Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states told them it risked sparking a resumption of hostilities. The Iranians are more than able to flick a few drones across and take out plenty of tanks and refineries in the United Arab Emirates.Iran has its foot on the throat of the world economyIt’s very clear now that Iran is in control here. Iran can blockade the straits. America is trying to blockade Iran, but has plenty of reserves of food, and obviously fuel, and is able to hold out for many more months.Meanwhile, this is a very dangerous situation politically for Donald Trump. The closer he gets to the midterm elections on November 2, the less popular the war becomes.The JP Morgan chart above shows reserves being drawn down at the fastest rate in recent history. Without the strait being open, the global oil system gets down below the 8 billion barrels. That may seem like a lot of room, but as you’d expect with a complex system of tanks, pipes, tankers, refineries, there’s a lot of oil that’s actually in the system. It’s a bit like a circulatory system filled with blood. Even though you might have however many litres of blood, you die well before all the blood is out because your blood pressure drops and all sorts of systems begin failing. And it’s the same with the oil system. The system starts failing well before the bottom of the barrelAs you drop below 8 billion barrels, according JP Morgan, things start to fail. And so that puts enormous stress on the markets. And essentially, the prices have to rise to destroy demand to match this significant drop in supply. So, so far with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we’ve seen a billion barrels of oil production lost. And there is only so much oil to be obtained from other places like the United States or Latin America or Africa. And of course, every time you do get it from somewhere different, that is a different length of tanker journey. It’s a different type of oil. And so you get down to what you’d describe as the bottom of the barrel. And when we get there, JP Morgan is saying, we get over US$150 a barrel and a rise towards US$200/barrel. There are some who believe that the true price in which you match demand with supply, the sort of level described as that’ll give us enough demand destruction is well over US$200 per barrel.The wisdom of the crowds on when the Strait opensIf you look at the collective wisdom of the crowds in predictions markets such as Polymarket, the current balance is that it will open by July 31st is 52%.But it’s clear that it’s falling the longer this goes on and the clearer it becomes that despite Trump’s talk, the Strait is well and truly closed. The two sides are far apart. Iran isn’t on its knees. America apparently isn’t on its knees, although the closer we get to the midterms the more the pain at the pump intensifies.That was clear because Trump said overnight he was going to suspend the 14 cents a gallon tax on gas. It’s worth remembering that our elections are five days after the mid-terms and our electorate is just as sensitive to petrol prices.Thank you Tadhg Stopford, Alexa Forbes, Tanya Wintringham, Peter J Keegan, Kris Herbert, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Timeline-cleansing nature picKa kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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