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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Hosted by Bernard Hickey · EN
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The Weekly Hoon: Downplaying climate scenarios; China's sabre-rattling & Chris Bishop's RONS U-turn
5d ago01:00:41Tap to summarizeThe podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Robert Patman & Cathrine Dyer about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.This edition also included discussions with special guest:* Green MP for Wellington Bays and Green Transport Spokesperson Julie Anne Genter, talking about the Government’s RONS U-turn yesterday.This week:* Bernard and Peter talked about America’s 250th anniversary. They referred to this FT-$ (gift) article by Simon Schama about the US Declaration of Independence.* Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about Climate Minister Simon Watts’ letter to mayors saying they shouldn’t use ‘high impact emissions scenarios’ in their investment planning.* Then Bernard and Peter talked with Robert about China’s missile test in the Pacific.* Bernard and Peter then talked with Julie Anne Genter about the Government’s RONS U-turn yesterday.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey. Peter Bale will be back next week.The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The way we run the economy isn't working
6d ago00:18:10Tap to summarizeIt’s just not working.We’ve known this for a long time, but we felt it being seared into the body of our political economy all over again yesterday. The Reserve Bank tightened monetary policy to slow economic activity again. It wasn’t a mistake. It hiked the key interest rate in order to reduce jobs and wages growth, as well as investment. All because it has one blunt tool, the Official Cash Rate, and one target, to keep inflation around 2%.This way of running our economy isn’t a bug. It’s a feature. The RBNZ acted yesterday as it was directed to do by the latest version of the Reserve Bank Act (1989). It decided that hurting consumers and workers more in the short term was necessary to ensure they weren’t hurt in the long run by higher inflation. It believes it has no choice but to increase unemployment in order to reduce inflation. It was burning the village again to save the village.Our primary macroeconomic manager did this at the same time as the Government is also tightening fiscal policy to slow activity. All because it believes it has one aim, to reduce deficits and borrowing to get the size of Government back under 30% of GDP and to get public debt back around 30% of GDP. All because it believes, without evidence, the world’s bond markets might punish New Zealand by not lending to our Government in the event of a crisis. Even though our Government actually has more assets than debts, and a net worth of over 30% of GDP, more than most other countries.Our Government — and this has been a bipartisan approach for decades — did this because it interprets the Public Finance Act (1989) as meaning it should almost always put a sinking lid on spending, not raise taxes, and tirelessly strive to reduce deficits and borrowing. Gallingly, both tightenings are happening at a time when:* 20.3% of young women and 14.4% of young people overall are unemployed;* a million people, 20% of the population, have so little money after paying for their rent, power, fuel and insurance that they need donations of food to stay alive; and,* there is an ongoing and desperate need for investment in hospitals, schools, roads, railways, water pipes and, especially, the skills and health of our youngest and oldest.We are saving for a rainy day, even though we’re in the middle of our second 1-in-100-year flood in a year. And we are putting up the cost of building rain shelters at the same time.A scarred generation being scarred even deeperYesterday’s hike was especially galling because it demonstrated that this way we run our economy deliberately puts more young people out of work for longer, in order to solve an inflation problem that was created overseas and/or is administered by Governments and monopolists. Our poor and young people are being punished for the sins and accidents of people overseas and rich people here. They are being punished repeatedly, and in a way that scars them for a lifetime. I spoke about this in my questions to the Reserve Bank Governor in the news conference yesterday, which are included in the video above.It’s most painful for those who graduated into the workforce in the last decade or so. They graduated from school and university into a jobs market where hundreds are applying for single low-level jobs every day. If they could get a job, their real wages have fallen more since 2021 than any other country in the developed world. NZ real wages down most in OECD in 2026 & since 2021From those wages, they’ve had to repay student loans and hope to save for a home. If they were lucky (or unlucky) enough to buy one in 2021 or 2022, their deposits will have been wiped out by real house price falls of more than 30 percent in two of our three biggest cities — caused largely by first money printing and high interest rates.This generation face being told they’ll probably be forced to put even more of their money aside into a savings fund they won’t be able to access unless they are in complete poverty or reach the retirement age, which will probably have been pushed back by the voters and politicians who will have already retired by then.Our two pillars of economic policy just don’t workFor the last 40 years, New Zealand has made a collective decision to manage our economy and society with a strict delineation and delegation of the levers of power between directly-elected politicians, who run fiscal policy by taxing, borrowing and spending, and an appointed Governor, who changes interest rates to speed up or slow down the economy, all with a single aim of keeping inflation around 2%.It has meant the Government believes someone else (the Reserve Bank) is responsible for short-term economic growth and inflation in the long term. Bizarrely, this has actually incentivized governments of both flavors, and both central and local governments, to load more and of the capital costs for infrastructure onto consumers through user pays and fees. The Reserve Bank pointed out yesterday that administered prices had been rising at a rate of 7-9% per year in recent years, making up 0.7 to 0.8 percentage points of the 3.9% inflation rate in the first quarter of this year.They believe they can achieve their PFA targets and let the RBNZ achieve the inflation target separately. This happens by the Reserve Bank effectively bearing down on the parts of the economy it can influence through interest rates directly, including construction, consumer spending and business investment, and indirectly, through the currency, which can shift export receipts and the costs of imports. It means that these sectors are suppressed, while the Government and monopolies can get on with their own business. This change in relative prices has effectively crunched our export sector well below 30% of GDP over the last 30 years. That’s your problem. Not mine.For the Reserve Bank, it has regularly pointed out it can’t change the underlying tax settings and policies that drive productivity and investment in the longer run. Governments of both flavours have chosen to ignore those gentle pleadings towards taxing capital gains and improving productivity, largely because the Reserve Bank was able to deliver very low interest rates for most of the last 20 years, thanks to imported deflation from the factories of China and, for much of the last 20 years, cheaper energy.Meanwhile, productivity has stagnated here even more than overseas and generations of investors and bankers have come to focus their investments on land, rather than actual businesses and productivity-enhancing technology, skills and businesses. By separating the levers of power and splitting responsibilities, neither have achieved progress in the long run. And the poor generations in the middle have paid the price, especially the ones that happened to be unlucky enough graduate into recessions. We’ve known forever that monetary policy is not just blunt, but shifts wealth from the poor to the rich, and from workers to asset owners. When interest rates are raised, those in debt paid more to those with savings in banks. When interest rates fall, those with assets are made wealthier by rises in the value of those assets. The rules and targets in our economic machinery and the separation of the responsibilities for achieving those targets just haven’t worked. We should look to repeal both the RBNZ and the PFA Acts of 1989 and replace them with a new operating system for the economy that prioritises investing in the future of our kids, rather than using a higher unemployment rate to try to bludgeon a variable down that is determined by those overseas and by those who don’t have to pay the price. We need to get rid of the slavish focus on 2%, 30% and 30% rules, and focus instead on getting all our young people into work. CheersBernardPS: I have opened this one up to the public immediately and in full. Last week, I asked paying subscribers if I should do this for all these articles until the election on November 7. They agreed I should. I’ve also restarted the 50%-off introductory discount for the first year of subscription, which we had for the first three years of The Kākā, after existing paying subscribers agreed. It will stay on until the end of the year. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Govt's housing cuts come home to roost
1w ago00:20:36Tap to summarizeAotearoa’s decades-long housing crisis is now deep into another winter of discontent.Last week’s events show the Government’s cuts to state house building and emergency housing in motels through 2024 have come home to roost even harder in 2026 than seen in the winter of discontent in 2016, when Te Puea Memorial Marae in Māngere opened its doors to Auckland’s homeless in the absence of Government action. It became an election issue the next year.Add in this years ‘moving on’ orders going through Parliament that will criminalize rough sleepers as young as 14 years old, and effective cuts to rent subsidies for Kāinga Ora tenants and Accommodation Supplement recipients, and 2026 is shaping up as New Zealand’s housing crisis annus horribilis.Just in the last week, we’ve learned:* Staff at MSD were threatened in late 2024 with the sack unless they kicked people out of motels to meet the Government’s target of cutting the numbers of people housed in motels by 75% by 2030. * MSD achieved the target five years early, but only by by failing to find and offer other places to live for around 30% of the 4,000 people forced to leave the motels, with just 20% of those moving out of transitional housing going into permanent home;* Those missing 1,000 or so homeless people were not tracked, and homeless shelters and food banks are reporting hundreds more people are now living on the streets, especially in Auckland;* The Auckland City Mission has called on the Government to fund at least 200 new homes for many hundreds more people sleeping on the streets in Auckland with nowhere to go after the Mission closes each night at 5pm;* Prime Minister Christopher Luxon admitted after being asked for the seventh time in a news conference that he did not know homeless people in Auckland had nowhere to go after 5pm, but he said he was comfortable homeless people were being offered enough help; but,* MSD admitted it rejected 30% of applications for emergency housing because applicants were deemed not eligible, with the criteria of ‘caused their own homelessness’ used as the main reason for rejection; and,* HUD reported in its Homelessness Insights report for the March quarter that Health NZ had recorded 1,037 people using hospitals last year were homeless, vs 790 in 2023, and Corrections reported 532 ex-inmates were homeless last year, vs 430 a year earlier. Health NZ also recorded 1,631 mental health patients were homeless last year.(See more detail in the Chart Pack, along with my full interview above from last week with Auckland City Mission CEO Helen Robinson).Elsewhere in the news today:* Newsroom has published the results of a three-year investigation into diagnoses of unexplained injury diagnoses from Auckland’s Starship Hospital. (See more below in my Picks n’ Mixes of scoops and deep-dives)* Paula Penfold details her investigation for Stuff of a new ACC policy denying income support to sufferers of child abuse because it happened before they became income earners. (See more below in my Picks n’ Mixes of Scoops and Deep-dives)* Infrastructure Minister and Hutt South MP Chris Bishop acknowledges in a deep-dive by Jim Kayes for Stuff that Hutt Hospital is run down and leaky, but says it’s not the worst hospital in New Zealand.* The Post-$ leads this morning with expectations of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday.* NZ First Leader Winston Peters is campaigning to deny voting rights to non-citizens, while National says it wants to do seven more trade deals in the next five years.(Usually, I put a paywall in at this point in the email and the podcast and video above is only available to paying subscribers, but I wanted to make sure this was available to all immediately today so have opened it immediately. The Kākā covers Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate. Subscribe to support more of this work being done in the public interest and being made available to the public.) (I am considering removing the paywall on The Kākā’s entire archive and all emails and articles produced between today and the election on November 7. I am also considering offering half-price annual subscriptions to new subscribers until the end of 2026. I did this in 2022 and at the ends of 2023 and 2024, but not 2025. But I first want to ask permission of existing paying subscribers, almost all of whom now pay the full price for The Kākā and have come to expect it will not be available to all. I have created two polls for paying subscribers to ask for that permission over the next week. Non-paying subscribers cannot vote. I’ll proceed if over 50% of voting paying subscribers say yes to both questions.)Chart Pack of the DayWhy people say they’re homelessHospitalisations of homeless people rising since late 20237% of youth homeless, including garages and carsRejection of Housing Special Needs grants more than triplesMy Picks n’ MixesMy Top Pick n’ Mix Six* Investigation by Bonnie Summer for Newsroom: What is going on at Starship’s child protection unit? ‘For decades, a small group of specialists at Starship Hospital’s child protection unit have played a central role in some of NZ’s most serious physical child abuse cases. What happens if those findings are wrong?.’* Deep-dive Laura Walters for Newsroom: Health NZ’s silence on child abuse misdiagnoses ‘Newsroom Investigates has spent almost three years trying to get answers from Health NZ and ministers on what now appears to be serious issue with the misdiagnosis of non-accidental injury in infants.’* Deep-dive by Cass Mason for Newsroom: ‘If we think it’s abuse, it’s abuse’ ‘For decades, NZ juries have heard that unexplained rib fractures in infants are highly indicative of abuse. But a Dunedin court hears the science underpinning these diagnoses is facing growing global scrutiny.’* Comment by anonymous for Newsroom: Clinging to hope when your world is kicked out from under you ‘What began as a grandmother’s fight to help her daughter get back custody of her twins has become a case of medical negligence and broken systems.’* Investigation by Paula Penfold for Stuff: How one woman’s eight-year fight raises questions about ACC’s ‘abhorrent’ new approach to weekly compensation* Deep-dive Jim Kayes for Stuff: Bad, but not the worst. Chris Bishop says other hospitals in worse shape than leaky HuttScoops elsewhere this morning* Jimmy Ellingham for RNZ: Health NZ apologises over paused bowel cancer procedures - but what next?* Marty Sharpe for Stuff: Seymour ‘implores’ Gisborne council to go easy on forestry companies* Stuff: Airport said it’d fixed driver double charging issue. A Solving stuff investigation reveals it hadn’t* Column by Rob Stock for SST-$: Compulsory KiwiSaver has a property loophole banks will exploit* John Anthony for BusinessDesk-$: Air NZ and Air India preparing JV application, CEO says* Deep-dive by Amelia Wade for SST-$: The Google files: Inside the lobbying that stalled New Zealand’s media lawMy full Picks n’ Mixes, plus front pages and Cartoons are available earlier to paying subscribers online, who are also able to comment and enter The Kākā’s chat room.Timeline Cleansing Nature Pic: Best puddle ever.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Weekly Hoon: Homelessness, Foreign Policy, the Reality of Everything & the gutting of safety reforms
2w ago00:59:07Tap to summarizeThe podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Robert Patman & Cathrine Dyer about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.This edition also included discussions with special guest:* Author and journalist Rebecca Macfie about the gutting of safety reforms put in place after the Pike River disaster. Rebecca wrote Tragedy at Pike River: How and why 29 men diedThis week:* Bernard and Peter talked about the climate in Europe, social housing policy in New Zealand and the political news of the week locally.* Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about the Reality of Everything symposium Cathrine helped organise last week and the excess deaths caused by Europe’s heat domes last month, which were worsened by climate change.* Then Bernard and Peter talked with Robert about the 60th Otago Foreign Policy school in Dunedin last weekend, which Robert helped organize and Peter attended and spoke at. Peter’s reports from the conference are linked to below.* Bernard and Peter then talked with Rebecca about the health and safety law rewrite.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey. Peter Bale will be back next week.The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Half a million New Zealanders living in poverty
2w ago00:20:42Tap to summarizeThe New Zealand Council of Christian Social Services (NZ CCSS) published a report this morning showing measures of the number of people in Aotearoa who are hungry and living in poverty has risen over the last year to their worst-ever levels. One in six households are living in income poverty after housing costs, just over one in ten have to go without essential items regularly, and one in three households experienced food insecurity in the last year. (See more detail and charts below, along with a full interview above with NZ CCSS CEO Alicia Sudden).Elsewhere in the news today:* The Government has executed another handbrake turn under pressure from New Zealand First, delaying the start date for its widely-opposed and already-passed Health and Safety law rewrite until well after the election (See more below in my Picks n’ Mixes of scoops and deep-dives);* Work on designing and consenting the Northwest Busway project has halted after a dispute between NZTA and Auckland Council over the fast-tracking of approvals for the $4.9 billion project to transform public transport in West Auckland, Thomas Manch reports for BusinessDesk-$ this morning; and,* A conflict of interest controversy has engulfed National MP for Waimakariri and Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey over his cousin’s 850-section development in North Canterbury. The project was rejected twice by the local council, but is now being fast-tracked under legislation Doocey voted for without declaring his family’s interests, Stuff’s Nadine Roberts reports this morning.(Usually, I put a paywall in at this point in the email and the podcast and video above is only available to paying subscribers, but I wanted to make sure this was available to all immediately today so have opened it immediately. The Kākā covers Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate. Subscribe to support more of this work being done in the public interest and being made available to the public.) (I am considering removing the paywall on The Kākā’s entire archive and all emails and articles produced between today and the election on November 7. I am also considering offering half-price annual subscriptions to new subscribers until the end of 2026. I did this in 2022 and at the ends of 2023 and 2024, but not 2025. But I first want to ask permission of existing paying subscribers, almost all of whom now pay the full price for The Kākā and have come to expect it will not be available to all. I have created two polls for paying subscribers to ask for that permission over the next week. Non-paying subscribers cannot vote. I’ll proceed if over 50% of voting paying subscribers say yes to both questions.)Half a million New Zealanders now living in povertyThe New Zealand Council of Christian Social Services (NZ CCSS), which represents over 100 non-Government social services organizations, has called for major structural change and the passing of a Poverty Reduction Act after publishing a major new report documenting a worsening of poverty and hunger across the Motu.“Social service providers report increasing demand for support with the cost of living, including a rise in demand for financial mentor support and provision of food parcels and housing support. “The New Zealand Council of Christian Social Services calls for structural change to recognise and reduce the levels of poverty in Aotearoa. The introduction of a Poverty Reduction Act would help to identify and track cohorts who are experiencing high levels of poverty in Aotearoa, while changes to the welfare and housing systems would help to free New Zealanders from poverty and ensure that no one is left behind.” NZ CCSS CEO Alicia Sudden wrote in the foreword to the 85-page report titled: Kua Mahue | Left Behind Poverty in Aotearoa in 2026.The report details how:* 10.2% of New Zealanders experience income poverty;* 16.5% of New Zealanders experience income poverty, after housing costs are paid;* 9.1% experience material hardship, which is defined as going without essential items such as shoes, food or not being able to visit the doctor or dentist;* Almost half of benefit recipients with children reported they were in material hardship;* 47% of beneficiaries without children reported being in income poverty;* 473,000 people overall were estimated to be living in hardship in 2025;* Over 900,000 people were given food parcels in the year to June 2025;* One in three households reported food insecurity in the past 12 months;* More than half of New Zealand’s lowest-earning 10% are spending more than 40% of their disposable income on private rentals, which is the highest in the OECD;* The decline rate for applications for special needs grants for food has more than doubled to 7% since mid-2023; and,* The decline rate for applications for special needs grants for housing have sextupled to 30% since mid-2023, while the number of applications has collapsed from over 8,000 per month in mid-2023 to just over 1,000 by the end of 2025.There is much more detail in the report and in my interview above with Alicia Sudden.Chart Pack of the DayMy Picks n’ MixesScoops* Craig McCulloch for RNZ: Govt pushes back date of health and safety shake-up* Nadine Roberts for Stuff: Death threat, conflict claims and an 850-home subdivision: The row engulfing Matt Doocey* Kate Green for RNZ: Rapid review to be carried out after patient dies in Waikato Hospital ED waiting room* Justin Wong for LDR/RNZ: ACT candidate resigns after Chinese political group link revealedDeep-dives* Mary Argue for RNZ: In with the bulldozers, out with the gravel - flood-hit farmers want change in river management* Phil Pennington for RNZ: The police back-office holding back the front line* Reuben Smith for 1News: Severe specialist doctor shortage at Palmerston North Hospital. The hospital’s last gastroenterologist resigned two weeks ago.* Interview with Combined Building Suppliers Cooperative Carl Taylor with Kathryn Ryan for RNZ’s Nine to Noon: Builders fear new home warranty rules will price them out of market* Anna Whyte for Interest: Treasury’s internal issues pile up* Shannon Pitman for RNZ: Former Whangārei Coin Saver owner Snehal Patel accused of blackmail and migrant exploitationCartoon of the Day: We get it.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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What a rewrite of NZ's political & economic DNA might look like
2w ago00:13:54Tap to summarizeGanesh R Ahirao published a proposal today for a new Government to pass an Economic Governance Act within 100 days of the November 7 election. It would put ‘Being a good ancestor’ at the heart of Government & supplant the current primacy of the Public Finance Act & the RBNZ’s inflation target.I spoke to Ganesh today about what an Economic Governance Act would aim to achieve and what’s wrong with the 35-year-old framework making deficit and debt reduction the Government’s main task, and enabling an independent Reserve Bank to dominate macro-economic policy through a single inflation target. The full video is available for all.Here’s the full detail in his substack post today. I’d recommend a read, and/or a watch/listen of/to our chat above.cheersBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Hipkins' pitch is empty & performative, for now
2w ago00:11:18Tap to summarizeLabour Leader Chris Hipkins gave a stirring speech over the weekend ahead of the election in 137 days time, pledging a warm home, secure jobs and accessible healthcare for all. He even declared ‘Neoliberal, trickle-down economics is a hoax.’ But he remains wedded to neoliberalism’s guide rails in New Zealand - the 30:30 rule limiting the size of Government and public debt to a third of GDP. Without disavowing this bipartisan compact to always put a sinking lid back on the size of Government as soon as a crisis is over, Hipkins’ rhetoric is empty and performative. (See more below and in the video and podcast above.)Elsewhere in the news this morning:* Prime Minister Christopher Luxon admitted last night he was unaware Auckland doesn’t have a night shelter open after 5pm, but he said he was comfortable with his Government’s housing, despite record-high homelessness; * A blood cancer specialist is migrating because he says a lack of specialists is making it too dangerous to work here; and, * Nurses at the Hutt Hospital are in despair over leaks and building problems after decades of underinvestment in new facilities and maintenance, thanks to the 30:30 rule. (See more below in my Picks n’ Mixes)Hipkins’ pitch is empty & performative, for nowLabour Leader and former PM Chris Hipkins was successful on Sunday in firing up Labour’s troops before the election on November 7, clearly identifying the frustrations of voters after years of real wage deflation and an exodus to Australia for a better life.Here’s a sampler from his speech to Labour’s Congress in Wellington, which drew the calculated calls, responses and standing ovations (highlighting mine):Are we ready? The fight is on! In just 137 days, we go to the polls and we choose our future.We can choose better jobs, affordable healthcare, and household bills you can finally pay - a government that backs you to build your future here.Or we can choose more of the same: more broken promises, more cuts, higher costs.Hipkins went on to articulate the hopelessness many feel was leading to the young leaving:We’re not going to accept higher costs and lower wages. We’re not going to watch more and more of our friends and neighbours packing up and leave.Because Kiwis have been doing the right things for years and getting the wrong results. That isn’t a problem with how hard they’re working. It’s a problem with the system.Neoliberal, trickle down economics is a hoax. Smaller government just for the sake of it doesn’t give people more choices and more freedom, it takes those things away.He then went on to describe an aspiration for a different economy and results for workers:Our next Labour Government will lead New Zealand to become a magnet for talent, enterprise and innovation.A country where the brightest minds want to live, where entrepreneurs want to build, where creators want to create, and where working people share in the rewards of success.Not because we compete by lowering standards, but because we lead by raising them.We’ll be a nation that backs its people, investing in skills, research, clean technology and high-value industries, so that ideas born here, grow here, and jobs created here stay here.And then the wrap-up:The Kiwi Dream has always been simple and powerful: if you work hard, you can build a decent life. A warm home. A secure job. Good schools for your kids. Healthcare when you need it.Under Labour, that dream won’t be reserved for a few, it will be delivered for everyone. It comes down to this. Your job. Your health. Your home.Not promises we can’t keep, but a practical, funded plan, ready to start the day after the election.I won’t pretend we can fix it all straight away. We’ll focus on what matters most, and we’ll deliver it.Easing the pressure you’re feeling right now, while we build a stronger economy that lifts everyone over time.How can you promise those things with the same Budget policy?Those are all fine things to say, but could only be meaningfully achieved with fundamental changes in the tax incentives for saving and investment, along with a much more muscular approach to using the Crown’s balance sheet to achieve those aims.In my view, none of those can be achieved with the Budget Policy principles both Labour and National have agreed to in the years since the Public Finance Act was passed in 1989, which include “reducing and maintaining debt to prudent levels, and once those levels have been reached, running operating surpluses on average.”Treasury has interpreted that to mean the Government must always try to get net debt down to around 20-40% of GDP, with a current cap of 50%, and to use the sinking lid of slower Government spending growth than nominal GDP growth to reduce the size of Government to 30% of GDP. That’s its definition of ‘reducing debt to prudent levels.’This 30:30 has been the main tool of neoliberalism embedded in legislation, alongside the Reserve Bank Act (1989) and the State Sector Act (1989). For the last 35 years, Labour and National have both agreed to the 30:30 rule or a version of it with functionally similar numbers, after definitional shifts. The Green Party even signed up to it before the 2017 election, although it has since dropped its adherence.No signs of dropping adherence to those fiscal rulesHipkins did not specify Labour’s fiscal or Budget strategy in the speech, and Labour has been tightlipped about when it would release it. But one indication was given during the news conference after the speech (video below from 8 mins on), where he was asked where Labour would find the money to pay for pay equity deals. He said Labour would use the same $2.4 billion per year operating allowance used by National, which is itself one of the outputs allowed under the 30:30 rules, given Treasury’s economic forecasts.Labour’s Finance Spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds also agreed to the same debt targets as National, in an interview with Tom Pullar-Strecker from The Post-$ in May last year.Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds has confirmed in the run-up to Thursday’s Budget the party supports the existing cap on government debt recommended by the Treasury.She also affirmed that achieving an operating (Obegal) surplus by the end of the Treasury’s forecast period, which currently terminates in the year ending June 2029, remained the appropriate goal.Edmonds said Labour had agreed with the 50% cap when last in power and said it would continue to do so “unless Treasury gives us advice otherwise when we come into government”.“It’s based on a number of pieces of advice. We clearly need to make sure we have fiscal headroom for ‘shocks’.” Finance Spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds in an interview with Tom Pullar-Strecker from The Post-$Unless there is a massive about face from Labour in the coming weeks, it is in exactly the same position with exactly the same fiscal strategy as National. That would mean no room for extra state house building, little room for substantial pay equity upgrades, little room for increasing operational and capital spending on health, and little room for electrification.Hipkins risks falling into the same ‘Third Way’ trap of UK Labour PM Keir Starmer, of promising many good things, but ultimately deciding pleasing the bond markets is more important. My Picks n’ MixesToday’s Top Six Scoops and Breaking News* Ethan Griffiths for NZ Herald: Three MPs rack up $20k in domestic travel bills in three months* Giles Dexter for RNZ: National abandons 2023 campaign policy to allow KiwiSaver for rental bonds* Chelsea Daniels for NZ Herald’s The Front Page: Luxon raises coalition doubts as Labour and Act unveil election priorities* Stuff: ‘I’d be so embarrassed’: Shane Jones should pay back limo bill, says David Seymour* 1News: ‘Health system is dangerous for Māori’ says Dr Lance O’Sullivan* RNZ: Most households see an average 8% increase in power prices this winterToday’s Top Six Deep-dives* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald-$: Inside Andrew Little’s inner circle: The former Beeh...
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Where growth isn't paying for growth
2w ago00:08:45Tap to summarizeThis morning I highlight another case where the 30-30 rule adhered to by both National and Labour means infrastructure growth can’t keep up with population growth. In essence, despite the claim over the years by MPs, Mayors and councillors, growth doesn’t pay for growth.Elsewhere in the news this morning: more MPs are exposed for taking accommodation allowances for living in Wellington, and there’s a striking case of how staffing and infrastructure shortages are crippling the health system. (See more below in my Picks n’ Mixes)Where growth isn’t paying for growthToday I wanted to focus on the idea that growth pays for growth. You may have heard this phrase used, particularly in council meetings and around the discussion of how we deal with the growth of our population and in particular the growth of housing. A home can’t be built until there are water networks underneath it, and they’re expensive. You have to build not only the pipes and the interconnectors to the rest of the network, but you often need to build brand new sewage treatment plants. And as we’ve seen, particularly in Wellington and in Christchurch, these things don’t often work and need to be maintained regularly and upgraded.Before 1990, a lot of these networks were funded by councils and by the government through debt. This is plain old government debt. The government or a council would borrow overseas or locally and service the debt from taxes and rates.That means a developer wouldn’t necessarily have to pay a huge development charge to connect to that network. And the networks grew as fast as the population grew, particularly through the 40s, 50s, and 60s. You could argue it was easier then because there was more easily available space on the edges of cities and people were comfortable living in standalone houses on reasonably large sections, and it was easier to jump in the car and commute away. That’s obviously more difficult now and certainly more expensive. And since the 1990s, governments and councils have argued that it shouldn’t be the taxpayer that pays for growth, it should be whoever buys that marginal new house. And often that is restricted because every time a developer has to pay a larger charge, that makes it more difficult to build a new house or build a new subdivision. The numbers get much larger, particularly when you start talking about large-scale subdivisions. The upfront costs are very high, and various attempts to try to create financial vehicles just haven’t worked. I wanted to focus on a particular story that came out in The Press in Christchurch on Saturday, which illustrates this problem and shows how growth doesn’t pay for growth within the current system of the 30-30 rule, which restricts government borrowing to no more than around 30 percent of GDP and restricts central government spending to no more than around 30 percent of GDP. You can’t build all this extra water infrastructure for all these extra people and maintain it unless you’re able to allow the state to have a higher share of GDP.I wanted to point you to what’s going on on the fringes of Christchurch particularly in the Selwyn District Council and around the area of Hallswell. Increasingly, those sections are getting quite small, and the houses are taking up a larger chunk of them. And that’s because buyers want as much land as they possibly can, but can only afford a certain amount. And that really packs in a lot of people into a small space, which of course means you have to really beef up your order networks. Christchurch sprawlsSo you can see that how Christchurch has sprawled out. This is partly because of the earthquake. There was a real drive to develop new suburbs, build new houses to replace the ones that were broken, if you like. And Christchurch has increasingly seen its ability to build lots of new houses fast as a competitive advantage to pulling people into the the region. And that certainly helped. It helped because it was it was it was helped by the government effectively paying for the and underwriting the redevelopment of water networks across Christchurch after the earthquake.That broke the normal 30-30 rules and of course the effective suspension of the Resource Management Act in many of those areas. But it’s meant there’s been very strong growth in the number of houses. It means now the growth isn’t paying for that growth.Mike Blackburn, a consultant who deals with the building sector in Christchurch, is quoted in Th Press on Saturday as hearing from builders that they are being told by the Selwyn District Council and Selwyn Water that there’s now no more space for new developments in and around Christchurch because they don’t have the water network and treatment.He’s spoken to 15 builders that have confirmed the same thing. They’ve been told by Selwyn Water that there are capacity restrictions, particularly in the east of the district. Selwyn District Council’s executive director for planning and building, Robert Love says that Selwyn’s growth has been among the fastest in the country. This has put enormous pressure on infrastructure. And that as he points out is in large part because the government has intervened to force councils to open up areas/They’ve been fast track tracking, but the government isn’t providing additional funding for the extra investment. So the 30-30 rule, is stopping these new houses from being built. Government won’t share fruits of growthThe larger problem, of course, is that the government benefits from the extra population growth through income and GST receipts, but doesn’t pass that on to councils. But councils are the ones who have to pay at least half of the infrastructure costs for population growth but aren’t given the funding for it and are restricted in their growth of debt.That’s because the local government funding agency is owned by the Crown Government. And so, in effect, that 30-30 rule applies not just to the government but to councils. My Picks n’ MixesToday’s Top Six Scoops and Breaking News* Chris Knox for NZ Herald-$: MP Housing Perks: See how the number of MPs claiming the full allowance has skyrocketed* Michael Morrah for NZ Herald: ‘Standing room only’: Nurse describes worst day in 18 years at Waikato ED* Andrea Vance for The Post-$: Climate activist Mike Smith takes Government to court over bid to halt landmark lawsuit* Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: Deadline on future of Clean Vehicle Standard looks set to quietly come and go* Tom Hunt for The Post-$: ‘Withered on the vine’: New water entity spends as promised users’ group fades* Kate Newton for RNZ: The big switch: Electrifying NZ homes could save billionsToday’s Top Six Deep-dives* Jack Tame for Q+A: ‘Perverse incentive’: MSD staff metrics include emergency housing grantsSome staff receive regular grading on eleven measures, including the number of people in their region who receive emergency housing grants.* Emily Simpson for 1News: ‘The cost of living in NZ is so high, we can’t afford children’House and food prices led a Wellington woman and her American husband to make some tough decisions.* Q+A: Labour ‘won’t’ work with ACT, but NZ First ‘highly unlikely’ – McAnultyWinston Peters has previously been emphatic that the door is shut from his side.* Mildred Armah for Stuff: ‘It’s gonna be a death sentence’: The 16-year-old New Zealand says is too sick to stay* Isaac Davison for Stuff: What is TOP? A left-wing party in disguise, pure hype, or something else?* Janika Ter Allen for Stuff: Will Labour cancel ‘tax breaks for landlords’? Here’s what it could mean for rents and house pricesCartoon of the day: ‘You, sunshine’Ka kite anōBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Weekly Hoon: Climate, housing, Iran and the revival of the Alliance Party
3w ago00:58:37Tap to summarizeThe podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guest Robert Patman from Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.This edition also included discussions with special guests:* Author Jonathan Lyons, PhD, who publishes the Signal to Noise: History. Philosophy. Commentary. substack, about the history of Iran; and,* Alliance Party Leader Victor Billot on the party’s history, re-registration and policies.This week:* Bernard and Peter talked about the climate in Europe, social housing policy in New Zealand.* Then Bernard and Peter talked with Robert and Jonathan about the Iran conflict.* Bernard and Peter then talked with Victor about the Alliance Party.* Victor read a poem written especially for The Hoon at the end. The skateboarding dog story was about Larry the Cat from 10 Downing Street, who has outlived six British Prime Ministers.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey. Peter Bale will be back next week.The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Bernard's Chorus: Why so relaxed Minister?
4w ago00:17:01Tap to summarizeToday in the news from Aotearoa and elsewhere about our political economy around housing, climate and poverty:* Tax Minister Simon Watts says he doesn’t have a view about the fairness of global tech giants arranging their finances so they don’t have to pay $600 million per year in taxes in New Zealand, Jenée Tibshraeny reports this morning for the front page of the Weekend NZ Herald-$ (See more below in Today’s Top Six Pick n’ Mix & in Front Pages in the Early Bird.)* The Government’s over-arching aim to reduce state spending to below 30% of GDP is behind the lack of funding for about 80 new abuse-in-care claims coming through each year. Julia Gabel had the scoop for NZ Herald last night. (See more below in Today’s Top Six Pick n’ Mix.)* That same sinking lid policy, which is framed as being focused on squeezing more value from the same money by reducing back office staff rather than front office staff, is responsible for Oranga Tamariki being short of 180 social workers, which in turn means they’re not turning up to crucial regular meeting with whanau, Police and others, as Phil Pennington reported last night for RNZ. (See more below in Today’s Top Six and Poverty Picks n’ Mixes.)* Consumer confidence is closely inversely correlated with CPI inflation and petrol price inflation. Consumer confidence is also correlated with confidence in any Government, as expressed in polling on questions about whether the country is on the right track or wrong track. That polling is often a leading indicator of support for the main governing party. (See more below in Chart Pack of the Day.)(This email and the video above is a sampler for all free subscribers. A much more detailed version went earlier as the Early Bird to paying subscribers, who also have access to a live recording of my Dawn Chorus video above. Please join us as a paying subscriber to support my work and get much more detail in the Early Bird posts and below the paywall fold)My Picks n’ MixesToday’s Top Six* Scoop by Jenée Tibshraeny for NZ Herald-$ (front page lead): ‘I don’t have a view’: Revenue minister deflects fairness query on big tech firms’ tax ‘According to a “conservative” estimate by Tax Justice Aotearoa, New Zealand missed out on more than $600 million of tax revenue from eight of the biggest tech companies over the past five years.’* Scoop by Julia Gabel for NZ Herald: Abuse in care: Officials estimate up to 80 new claims a year under expanded redress system ‘Officials predict up to 80 additional abuse in care claims for redress could be lodged each year as the Government expands the state system to include more contemporary claims of abuse. Advice prepared for the minister in charge of the scheme, Erica Stanford, and obtained by the Herald under the Official Information Act, includes warnings from officials to ensure the right level of funding is provided for these additional claims. Stanford’s office said funding decisions were still being considered by ministers. Officials, in their advice to her, said extending the system would require reallocating existing Crown Response Funding as the Finance Minister Nicola Willis did not invite a bid for additional money in the latest Budget. The Ministry of Health and Health NZ also did not have funding available from baseline for these additional claims.’* Reportage by Torika Tokalau for LDR/RNZ: Church’s plan for low-cost cafe to feed hundreds shunned by locals* Deep-dive by Phil Pennington for RNZ: ‘A risk to life’: Social workers called out for no-shows on keeping kids safe ‘Oranga Tamariki’s new CEO said earlier this month it was 180 social workers short and staff shortages were hampering efforts to hit targets responding to urgent concerns over children.’* Op-Ed by Otago Uni Associate Professor Bernardette Jones for The Waikato Times-$: The health system failed an 11-year-old child at every step, and two reports fall short of saying why ‘What neither report does is ask whether this child’s status, as Māori, as disabled, as autistic and as non-verbal, shaped what was done to her, and neither analyses the obligations owed under Te Tiriti o Waitangi or under the United Nations conventions on the rights of the child, of persons with disabilities, and of indigenous peoples. The statutory iwi Māori partnership board for the region, Te Tiratū, was not consulted in the inquiry at all.’* Op-Ed by AUT’s Sarah Maessen, Bridget Dicker & Heather Hutchinson for The Conversation: Time is critical when someone’s heart stops – portable defibrillators could save more lives ‘More lives could be saved if community responders were equipped with portable automated external defibrillators (AEDs) to get treatment to patients sooner.’Scoops & Breaking News this morning* Scoop by Hanna McCallum for Newsroom Pro-$: Australian firm advises Stanford on ‘winning hearts and minds’ of NZ teachers* RNZ: National election policy announcement expected as party gathers for AGM‘National leader Christopher Luxon is expected to announce an election policy, which RNZ understands will be in the economic space.’* Investigation by Katie Harris for NZ Herald-$: ‘Culture of fear’: Leaders quit, probe at hockey association over alleged staff conduct* Reuters: Lebanon ceasefire agreed after US-Iran talks in Switzerland scrapped* Reuters: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards set up covert Iraqi cells to attack Gulf neighborsThank you to all paying subscribers who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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