← The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell
The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell
Iran missiles fired at U.S. base in Qatar intercepted
00:34:20
Tonight on The Last Word: The New York Times reports Iranian state TV is announcing a ceasefire with Israel. Sen. Mark Kelly, Amb. Wendy Sherman, Trita Parsi, and Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling join Lawrence O’Donnell.
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- [00:00]
Ashley Flowers
Hi, I'm Ashley Flowers, creator and host of the number one true crime podcast Crime Junkie. Every Monday, me and my best friend Brit break down a new case, but not in the way you've heard before and not the cases you've heard before. You'll hear stories on Crime Junkie that haven't been told anywhere else. I'll tell you what you can do to help victims and their families get justice. Join us for new episodes of Crime Junkie every Monday. Already waiting for you by searching for Crime Junkie wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [00:31]
Lawrence O'Donnell
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- [00:53]
Mark Kelly
Well, we are continuing our breaking news coverage of a possible ceasefire very soon in Israel and Iran after Donald Trump decided that the best way to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions was with bombs instead of negotiations. At 6:02pm today, Donald Trump announced on social media what he is calling a ceasefire in Iran and Israel. Donald Trump said that the ceasefire has been, quote, has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran. Israel has not confirmed a ceasefire agreement. Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement went on to say, I would like to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, on having the stamina, courage and intelligence to end what should be called the twelve Day War. God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America and God bless the world. Exclamation point. In an interview with NBC News Yamiche Alcindor, Donald Trump said, I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It's going to go forever. And at 8:46pm Iran's foreign minister tweeted, as Iran has repeatedly made clear, Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around. As of now, there is no agreement on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4:00am Tehran time. We have no intention to continue our response afterwards. The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later. And just a short time ago, Iran's foreign minister tweeted, the military operations of our powerful armed forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the Very Last minute at 4am Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave armed forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute. Donald Trump's eagerness to announce what he said is a permanent end to the war comes after polling shows Donald Trump at the lowest job approval of his presidency, with only 36% support for the United States bombing Iran. During this hour of coverage, we will consider how we got to here with former Ambassador Wendy Sherman, who was Undersecretary of State and a key negotiator in the Obama administration's agreement with Iran, brokered by Secretary of State John Kerry, in which Iran pledged not to develop nuclear weapons, an agreement that was ripped up by Donald Trump in his first term. And we will hear from Iran expert Trita Parsi. We begin our discussion tonight with former Navy pilot Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. He's a member of the Armed Services Committee and Intelligence Committee. Senator, thank you very much for joining us tonight. What do you make of the latest state of what might be a ceasefire? We haven't yet heard from Israel, but Iran does seem to be entering a ceasefire.
- [04:23]
Lawrence O'Donnell
Well, I mean, we're going to have to see what happens here, Lawrence. I mean, this is a complicated and dangerous situation. I think we only made more dangerous by Donald Trump's reckless foreign policy, not just during this administration, but you got to go back to his first term, May of 2018, when he tore up the Iran deal. And doing that has that was the genesis of the situation we find ourselves in today with Iran increasing the enrichment to upwards of 60% when they were below 4%. So I think it's important for people to recognize that this is a dangerous situation. We do not want this to escalate. I'm really concerned about the people that Donald Trump has around him. I mean, he has no national security adviser. He's got a Director of National Intelligence that doesn't show up to all the meetings. And then he has Pete Hegseth.
- [05:23]
Mark Kelly
About that. Senator, how do you think that affects the decisions that we're going to be seeing going forward given the, the posture of where this is tonight, the advisory group around Donald Trump being, to put it kindly, the least experienced we've ever had in a situation like this?
- [05:43]
Lawrence O'Donnell
Yeah, I mean, every, seemingly every new hire seems to be from Fox News. I mean, the Secretary of Defense being a, no offense, Lawrence, but a guy who spent, I think seven years as a Saturday morning Fox News host who is just, just Fundamentally unqualified for this position, has no business managing the Department of Defense. An unqualified Director of National Intelligence who often just starts with the answer she wants and then puts together the information to support it. And no National Security advisor. I mean, he says, Marco Rubio's doing the job, but he's the Secretary of State. And one person cannot do two jobs of that magnitude. So, Lawrence, I'm really concerned about what happened here. The president wasn't authorized to strike against Iran. The US Military, I think, deserve a lot of credit. They successfully conducted these strikes. But right now, the problem we have is we do not know what the Iranians are going to do. They could turn this entire program black with no insight by the IAEA and race towards the development of a nuclear weapon.
- [07:02]
Mark Kelly
And under the John Kerry negotiated President Obama agreement with Iran, this was being monitored. There was a monitoring system set up to cover exactly what Iran was doing, and Donald Trump threw that away. And that leads to eventually, Donald Trump bombing Iran.
- [07:23]
Lawrence O'Donnell
Yeah, he tore it up. I mean, there was extensive monitoring. There was inspectors that would have access routinely. There were camera systems set up up in the facilities. The Iranians brought their enrichment down to below 4%. Now it's back up to 60%. You need about 90% to make a nuclear weapon. They could do that rather quickly. We don't know if they're going to try to do that. But if they race towards the development of a nuclear weapon, that region and the entire world is less safe. And it's all because, you know, Donald Trump tore up a deal that was negotiated during the Obama administration that he didn't want President Obama to have this. That success or any other. And because of that, it's not only the 40,000 troops that are in the region, some of which were attacked today. Thankfully, our defensive systems worked. Nobody was injured or killed. But the steps that this president has taken over the last, well, his first four years and now over the last several weeks has clearly, in my view, made every American less safe.
- [08:38]
Mark Kelly
To that point of the attack on the American military base Today, Donald Trump said that they were warned ahead of time by Iran. If that is true and there are no injuries, what is? What other concerns do you have about that attack?
- [08:56]
Lawrence O'Donnell
Well, not about that one. It's just what is next. I mean, if the Iranians don't feel like they can be successful with a ballistic missile attack on a military base in Qatar or Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, maybe their next step is to go back to, you know, their playbook that they often use, which is Just terrorism. Terrorism here in the United States or in a country where we have interests and assets. They've done this in the past. They're successful at it. They could also try to shut down the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. They've done that to some extent previously. They could attack a ship, they could attack a civilian airliner. The Iranians and their proxies are really, really good at this. And I think they're probably going to strike out. I hope that this ceasefire is a real thing. I'm a little bit skeptical based on what the President has said about this. But if it turns out to be a real thing, that's positive. And then we would have to get back to negotiations to try to get us back to 2018, back to where we were during the Obama administration, where they weren't enriching uranium.
- [10:08]
Mark Kelly
And there are reports that because Donald Trump tweeted days ago that Tehran should evacuate, that the Iranian government had plenty of time to move nuclear material out of the line of fire and may have done so. We have this reporting from the New York Times. A day after President Trump declared that Iran's nuclear program had been completely and totally obliterated by American bunker busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, the actual state of the program seemed far more murky, with senior officials conceding they did not know the fate of Iran's stockpile or near bomb grade uranium. Do you expect on the Armed Services Committee and the Intelligence Committee to get an assessment from officials about what they know about what was destroyed and what may still have survived?
- [11:02]
Lawrence O'Donnell
Well, I expect to get an assessment, but I also expect that the information they give us, the answer is going to be that they just don't know where it is. And BDA bomb damage assessment of an attack on a building is a really hard thing to do. These facilities are underground. I'm not sure we're going to have a good idea of what was damaged for weeks or maybe in some cases ever. And we might not know where they took this uranium. If they can put centrifuges back together or whatever they have, they can further enrich it. So I'll get some answers tomorrow, especially on the Intelligence Committee, but I'm not confident that it's going to give us any kind of confidence that we are in a much better situation today than we were last week.
- [11:48]
Mark Kelly
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, thank you very much for starting off our discussions tonight.
- [11:53]
Lawrence O'Donnell
Thank you, Lawrence.
- [11:55]
Mark Kelly
Thank you. Thank you. Coming up, former Ambassador Wendy Sherman, who is a key negotiator in the Obama administration's Iran deal that Donald Trump, in his first turn, ripped up. She will join us next.
- [12:13]
Ashley Flowers
Hi, I'm Ashley Flowers, creator and host of the number one true crime podcast, Crime Junkie. Every Monday, me and my best friend Britt break down a new case, but not in the way you've heard before and not the cases you've heard before. You'll hear stories on Crime Junkie that haven't been told anywhere else. I'll tell you what you can do to help victims and their families get justice. Join us for new episodes of Crime Junkie every Monday. Already waiting for you by searching for Crime Junkie wherever you listen to podcasts. Coverage varies by plan. View contracts and exclusions@endurancewarranty.com if you're driving.
- [12:48]
Danica Patrick
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- [13:38]
Mark Kelly
Visit endurancewarranty.com for your fast free quote today. That's endurancewarrantied.com.
- [13:46]
Ryan Reynolds
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Mark Hertling
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Lawrence O'Donnell
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Mark Kelly
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Ashley Flowers
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- [14:21]
Mark Kelly
The breaking news of this hour is that Iran state television has just announced a ceasefire. Joining us now is Ambassador Wendy Sherman, former US Deputy Secretary of State. She was the lead negotiator on the team that finalized the Iran deal with Secretary of State John Kerry in the Obama Administration. Ambassador Sherman, thank you very much for joining us. And we just did get the breaking news that Iran's state television has announced a ceasefire. We still have nothing on a ceasefire from Israel. What do you make of the Iran state television announcement?
- [14:59]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, look, a ceasefire is a good thing. We need the killing to stop. As Senator Kelly said, in many ways, President Trump was lit the match for this war short as it was in 2018 when he pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal. And now he's playing firefighter, getting to a ceasefire with the good help of Qatar, I believe. And yes, I would like to hear from Israel that it's going to acknowledge and follow through on the ceasefire. It takes two to achieve a ceasefire. And we still have a long way to go to get from a ceasefire to a sustainable peace and a negotiation with Iran that gets us back to a place, a different place, because Iran is going to be in a different place than it was when we negotiated.
- [16:00]
Mark Kelly
So the reports tonight are that we do not know how much of the Iran nuclear program was destroyed, how, how much of it was preserved. We have no way of knowing that as of now. And so it seems if there is a ceasefire, and that includes no more bombs from Donald Trump, that the only option that the Trump administration has is, as you say, exactly the kind of negotiations that you and Secretary Kerry succeeded at with Iran.
- [16:34]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, I think Iran and Trita Parsi will have some insight in this as well. I think Iran is likely to hunker down to be very cautious and wary of negotiations given what's happened over the last several days. When the President, United States said, I'm going to give two weeks for a negotiation, it was all a deception to, in fact, bomb Iran's nuclear sites. We want all those sites to disappear. We want Iran not to get a nuclear weapon. No one wants Iran to get a nuclear weapon. But I worry, as Senator Kelly does, that Iran had enough warning that it hid a lot of that 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, enough advanced centrifuges, and there will be many what I call hard hardliners inside of Iran who will now want to go for a nuclear weapon, believing it's the only way to deter Israel from attacking again or from the United States attacking again. So I think the IAEA is likely to be kicked out of Iran, whether they leave the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty or not, I don't know. I would expect that the Europeans will, when the snapback provision of the original deal comes due this October, they'll have to notice before then will probably use that snapback mechanism. But quite frankly, having sanctions reimposed that may have come off won't matter much to Iran given what it has gone through. So I think Iran hunkers down. I think we will not know what's going on. You know, I was thinking about this, Lawrence. Add one more thing. I remember so vividly in 2009 when the United States, the UK and France announced that we had found, through intelligence, a secret facility named Fordo. The IAEA had not known about it. Through our joint intelligence operations, we were able to find it. I hope that we can get from this administration accurate intelligence, accurate bomb damage assessments, and that we can all have faith that what we're being told is the truth.
- [18:56]
Mark Kelly
Where would we be tonight if instead of ripping up the deal you and Secretary Kerry negotiated, Donald Trump had decided to become the enforcer of that deal?
- [19:10]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, to give you a comparison, Lawrence, I'm not a nuclear physicist, but the analysts that I've read over the last few days believe if that highly enriched uranium to 60% is hidden away with some advanced centrifuges, that Iran can very quickly make a dirty bomb and can probably within four or five months weaponize that amount, attach it to a launch vehicle, and have itself maybe not a well tested, maybe not tested at all, nuclear weapon. So we would have no way of really taking action if things move that quickly. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, we had at least a year till breakout. And during that year, the iaea, as Senator Kelly said, had eyes on everything from the uranium that came out of the ground all the way through the process to see whether nothing had been covertly taken away. It came out the other side exactly as it had gone in, in terms of amounts and quantities. We had eyes on every part of the nuclear fuel cycle that Iran knows so well. You can't bomb away knowledge. And so, indeed, we would have been in a much, much better place. We would have had the time if Iran had tried to break out, to take military action, if that was necessary. But we also may have had a relationship to deal with what became a very toxic Middle East. I'm glad for the ceasefire. I hope that it can lead to peace, to real peace, to a negotiated settlement that allows Iran is going to still want to enrich uranium. The administration and Israel have both said, no, everything has to be dismantled. I still think that's going to be a point of great contention, but we'll see where we go.
- [21:06]
Mark Kelly
What would. What would Iran's incentive have been to fully comply with the deals that you negotiated.
- [21:17]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, they had sanctions relief, which was critical to them. Their economy is in a very difficult place. It was in a very difficult place. Then they could be welcomed back into the international community. They were open to discussing issues like Hamas and Hezbollah and, and the militias that are so toxic in the Middle East. And yes, I'm glad that Hamas is weaker, that Hezbollah is weaker, that Assad is gone, that there's been a lot of pushback on Syria militia. All of that is good. But indeed, I think we would have been in a very, very different place and we wouldn't have gone through all of the death and destruction. And the last thing I would say that's really important for none of us to forget. We still don't have a negotiate agreement with Putin to stop his horrible and illegal invasion of Ukraine. We still don't have a ceasefire in Gaza. We still have Gazans who are starving, and we don't have the hostages returned to Israel, nor can we ensure Israel's security given the current situation. So there's a whole lot of work yet to be done. I know the president is hopeful for a Nobel Peace Prize, but it's going to take a lot more work for him to qualify, in my view.
- [22:40]
Mark Kelly
Former Ambassador Wendy Sherman, thank you very much for joining our live coverage of this continuing situation tonight. Thank you.
- [22:47]
Ryan Reynolds
Thank you, Lawrence.
- [22:49]
Mark Kelly
And coming up, Iran expert Trita Parsi will join us for more of our breaking news coverage of what appears to be a ceasefire in Iran. We have not heard from Israel on the ceasefire, but Iran state television has said that there is a ceasefire. We'll be right back. One of the agencies that Donald Trump has been trying to destroy is the Voice of America, which after World War II began broadcasting news all over the world, including to countries suffering under dictatorship where free speech is not allowed. Voice of America had been broadcasting into Iran for decades, but the Trump team tried to end all of that. Steve Herman, former Voice of America's chief national correspondent, reported more than a dozen Voice of America Farsi journalists who were emailed termination notices from Kari Lake on Friday have been ordered to return to work Monday. They're still set to lose their jobs September 1st. Joining us now is Iran expert Trita Parsi. Trita, thank you very much for joining us tonight. I just want to get your reaction to that news about the Voice of America and the Trump administration approach to this on Friday. They're trying to get rid of the people who can speak the language literally to people in Iran. And by Monday, they realize they need them back.
- [24:22]
Trita Parsi
I have to be very frank with you on this one. Over the course of the last 10, 15 years, VOA Persian has completely lost much of its audience in Iran because it's become increasingly propagandistic. There was a time in which it was actually providing real valuable news into Iran, which was clearly much needed, but it had increasingly become an instrument of policymaking, and as a result, increasingly lost its legitimacy and its viewership in Iran.
- [24:51]
Mark Kelly
So how. How can the United States or any other outside country communicate with the people of Iran? Is there a way to get through, especially in a situation like this, where they have more reason than ever to doubt their own leadership?
- [25:10]
Trita Parsi
It is obviously extremely difficult. And we saw what the Iranians did, of course, during this war in which they cut off Internet up to 95% because of the manner in which the Israelis had managed to penetrate their communication system. And as a result, they had to just shut down everything. At the same time, I do have to say we're in a situation in which, you know, the people of Iran, they may be not getting news from their government, but, you know, it's not as if much of the reporting coming out of the west has not been filled with a tremendous amount of untruth, exaggerations. It just turned into something channel that's just been celebrating, as if the single statement of Trump saying that this was a splendid attack on Fordeau was the final word that we needed to hear about this. No conversation as to whether it really was destroyed, whether the stockpile actually had been reached or not. So I have fear to say that under these circumstances, truth is the first victim of war from all sides, not just from one.
- [26:14]
Mark Kelly
What do you make of the Iranian state television announcement tonight of a ceasefire?
- [26:21]
Trita Parsi
I think there is a ceasefire. I think the way that this needed to be finessed on the Iranian side is to essentially say that it came into effect after the Israelis first stopped firing, whether that is just two seconds before the Iranians did or not, because the Iranians insist that Israel, of course, started this war, and as a result, they needed to stop first. But there is a ceasefire now. Whether that would lead to a more stable end to the war remains to be seen. I think the Israelis are very unhappy about this. They fought more than 20 years to get the United States into war with Iran. They managed to reach that point because of Trump's decision. I don't think they had envisioned that it would end this quickly, and they would like this to continue for some time and go after as much of Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure as possible. So I suspect that there's going to be a rather unstable one and probably one in which the Israelis will continue to do a lot of the sabotage and intelligence operations that they're doing from inside of Iran that nevertheless stops short from actual military attacks from Israel. But this by no means means that the conflict as a whole necessarily is over.
- [27:36]
Mark Kelly
What does this mean to the Iranian government?
- [27:40]
Trita Parsi
The Iranian government is deeply, deeply unpopular. But nevertheless, despite of that, we saw a tremendous amount of rallying around the flag phenomenon once the Israelis attacked, and particularly mindful of how the Israelis attacked. You know, in the beginning, they were striking a lot of apartment buildings to kill Iranian officials, but they killed a tremendous amount of civilians as well. In the middle of the night, two or three days into the war, the Israelis announced that they had set off five car bombs in Tehran. If the Iranians had intelligence cells in Israel, they were setting off car bombs, I think we would have correctly called that terrorism. So given that there was a tremendous rally around the flag phenomenon, but I think it was somewhat similar to what happened inside of Israel after October 7th. People rallied around the flag, but they didn't rally around the leader. Bibi Netanyahu's numbers didn't go up, but Israelis nevertheless rallied around the flag. Similarly to that, I think Iranians rallied around the flag, but not around their government.
- [28:38]
Mark Kelly
Going forward, what happens within the Iranian government, does this create different power centers? Does this create conflict within the government?
- [28:49]
Trita Parsi
There's going to be tremendous amount of suspicions inside the government because clearly their government had been penetrated by the Israeli Mossad. And there's going to be a very vicious effort, I would suspect, to try to identify and root out whatever sleeper cells or other things existed inside of it. I think one thing we also have to understand, mindful of the fact that prior to the ceasefire, Trump started to talk about regime change, which of course, the Israelis had done for several days. Now, under circumstances like this, circumstances of war, it is not likely that the regime would collapse and be replaced by peaceful protesters and pro democracy activists. It's far more likely that it would be replaced if it collapsed by other elements from within the same regime, but elements that are far more aggressive than the current leadership is right now. That is the most likely outcome. If the regime were to collapse under circumstances of war, it would be very different it were to collapse under circumstances of peace.
- [29:50]
Mark Kelly
Trita Parsi, thank you very much for joining us tonight.
- [29:54]
Trita Parsi
Thank you so much.
- [29:55]
Mark Hertling
Thank you.
- [29:56]
Mark Kelly
And coming up, retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling joins us for more of our breaking news coverage.
- [30:02]
Ashley Flowers
Hi, I'm Ashley Flowers, creator and host of the number one true crime podcast, Crime Junkie. Every Monday, me and my best friend Britt break down a new case, but not in the way you've heard before and not the cases you've heard before. You'll hear stories on Crime Junkie that haven't been told anywhere else. I'll tell you what you can do to help victims and their families get justice. Join us for new episodes of Crime Junkie every Monday. Already waiting for you by searching for Crime Junkie Wherever you listen to podcasts. Coverage varies by plan. View contracts and exclusions@endurancewarranty.com if you're driving.
- [30:36]
Danica Patrick
A car or truck with an expired warranty and suddenly lost your transmission or needed a full engine repair, would a $4,000 repair bill leave you stranded? I'm Danica Patrick. Don't get caught off guard with a vehicle breakdown. Choose the company I trust, Endurance, no matter the mileage. If your vehicle is less than 20 years old, endurance offers comprehensive auto protection plans for any budget, protection on the drivetrain, electrical transmission, AC and more, plus benefits like 247 roadside assistance and rental car reimbursement. On any plan, Endurance handles everything from making the claim through the repair process to paying the certified mechanic of your choice. Don't get caught off guard with a vehicle breakdown. Act now and get one full year of elite benefits, a $2,000 value free.
- [31:27]
Mark Kelly
Visit endurancewarranty.com for your fast free quote today. That's endurancewarranty.com.
- [31:34]
Trita Parsi
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.
- [31:36]
Ryan Reynolds
With the price of just about everything.
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Mark Hertling
Going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us we brought in.
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Ryan Reynolds
A reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a.
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Lawrence O'Donnell
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Mark Hertling
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- [32:08]
Mark Kelly
The breaking news of this hour is that minutes ago Iran state television announced a ceasefire after earlier today Iranian missiles struck an American air base in Qatar in retaliation from for United States bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran targeted the largest US military base in the Middle east with 10,000 troops stationed there. Iran gave Qatar and the Trump administration advance notice of that attack no casualties were reported. Joining us now is retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former commander of the United States army in Europe. General Hertling, first of all, I want to go to this attack on the American military base today and the warning ahead of time. How did you interpret all of that?
- [32:55]
Mark Hertling
It was expected, truthfully, Lawrence, it was. You know, the military breaks down their potential targets as being most likely and most dangerous. This was a most likely target, I think, for the Iranians, because Al Udid, I've been there multiple times before. It is the forward headquarters of Central Command. It's the closest area to southern Iran. And it is a place where President Trump was just a few weeks ago talking to the troops and giving them a pep talk about how America was going to defeat all of its enemies. So it was very symbolic in my view. There's about 10,000 US forces there, thousands of civilians that work for them, both Qataris and US Citizens. So I would have thought that that probably would have been a most likely target. The most dangerous targets. Iran didn't want to strike those. I think they were looking to, to control the escalation that they were seeing from both Israelis and the United States. And this was probably the right kind of target because they knew that the rockets would be intercepted. And of course, now we also have reports, unconfirmed, that they also told both the Kratori government as well as President Trump what they were going to do to make one last ditch effort for domestic consumption within Iran.
- [34:23]
Mark Kelly
When you're the commander of a base like that that has received the notice that the attack is coming, what do you do?
- [34:32]
Mark Hertling
Well, you get people out of there if you can. And that's what mostly happened at Qatar, although they couldn't certainly unask the entire area. As we say in the military, they still had people inside the headquarters, but they also put the defensive systems on high alert. The air defense systems, they have multiple types, so they're looking for these kinds of rockets. They know exactly what kind of rockets Iran from their vast arsenals of different types would more than likely send at Al Udid. So they know what to do, how to strike it down and how to put people on alert to counter multiple rockets. And now you see from this pictures that you're showing right now, it looks like a swarm of incoming missiles. But the fact of the matter is those can be handled by some of the air defense systems that we have at various bases in the Gulf. But it's still a very dangerous situation because even if you do hit one of the incoming missiles, you're certainly going to have debris from it that can cause dangerous situations for the people on the ground.
- [35:40]
Mark Kelly
We have no confirmation as of this minute, in this hour of Israel agreeing to a ceasefire. But assuming a ceasefire is underway or will be underway, how do you police that?
- [35:56]
Mark Hertling
Well, I was thinking about that earlier as I listened to your two great guests, Senator Kelly and certainly Ambassador Sherman, who I know both of them well from interactions we had when I was still in uniform. They set it right on the mark in terms of what they were proclaiming the issue is going to be. First of all, will the ceasefire hold? Will it become a cessation of hostilities? Will it eventually turn into a peace treaty? No one knows that. Many people are skeptical. I'm not going to go out on a limb and say whether they will or whether they won't. But you're talking about two nations that have extreme animosity toward each other, one calling the other, you know, the evilest empire in the world and Iran calling Israel a place that they want to destroy. And it's in their constitutional charter. So when you get to a point of a ceasefire and then the negotiations in that peace ceasefire, which will start soon, I would assume you're talking about, what are both sides going to ask for? I would think the Iranians will ask for no intrusions or no inspections. They will also ask for cessations of the sanctions that have been on them for so long. That's destroying their country. And Israel will probably go toward more of a Versailles type treaty. And what I mean by that is they will demand much to ensure that Iran doesn't rise up again. And we all know what happened during the Versailles Treaty of World War I and how it created the Wehrmacht of World War II for the US we're going to probably be helping negotiate that ceasefire. But I would assume that the President is going to understand that there are going to be other, many other nations who are going to be interested, not just from the region, but from other locations like Russia and China and North Korea and others who are going to be very interested in what happens with this ceasefire and, and the way forward for Iran. So this is going to be, it's going to be complex, Lawrence. It's going to be sporty, as one of my best friends says, when these kind of situations occur. And it's going to be troublesome if a ceasefire holds. I'm skeptical that it will. We've already seen both sides violate cease fire agreements in various conflicts. What you also have to consider is even though Iran has been mutilated in terms of their military. Their air force is destroyed. Most of their missile launchers are bad. We don't know what's happened to their, to their nuclear weapons. But they are in very bad shape as a military, compounding what they've experienced for the last decade or so with the sanctions. Israel, though, is also in bad shape. They have been fighting a war for two years. They have jets that have been flying constantly against Iran for the last two weeks. They've had refuelers over a very long territory, and they only have six of those that are all, they've all been decremented. And so Israel, I'm sure, is happy for a ceasefire as well, but it's going to be the negotiations that are the most important point of all this.
- [39:10]
Mark Kelly
Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, thank you very much for joining us tonight.
- [39:15]
Mark Hertling
Thank you, Lawrence.
- [39:18]
Mark Kelly
That is tonight's last word.
- [39:20]
Ashley Flowers
Hi, I'm Ashley Flowers, creator and host of the number one true crime podcast, Crime Junkie. Every Monday, me and my best friend Britt break down a new case, but not in the way you've heard before and not the cases you've heard before. You'll hear stories on Crime Junkie that haven't been told anywhere else. I'll tell you what you can do to help victims and their families get justice. Join us for new episodes of Crime Junkie every Monday. Already waiting for you by searching for Crime Junkie. Wherever you listen to podcasts.