The Lawfare Podcast: Escalation, Episode Seven – Boiling the Frog

Release Date: June 12, 2025

Overview

In the season finale of Escalation, titled Boiling the Frog, The Lawfare Institute delves deep into the complexities of the United States' relationship with Ukraine amidst Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Co-hosted by Tyler McBrien and Anastasia Lopatyna, this episode meticulously traces the historical ties between the two nations, the strategic decisions made by U.S. policymakers, and the profound impact on Ukrainian society. Through expert interviews, firsthand accounts, and in-depth analysis, the episode elucidates the divergent perspectives that have shaped the conflict's trajectory and the fragile alliance between Washington and Kyiv.

1. Prelude to Invasion: Rising Tensions and Intelligence Warnings

The episode opens with a recounting of the months leading up to Russia's invasion. In November 2021, as Russian troops amassed along Ukraine's borders, U.S. intelligence began signaling an imminent threat.

• Expert Insight: Shane Harris, a national security reporter, shares his apprehensions: "The intelligence that the US collects on this potential invasion is broad and quite precise... All things that you would be doing for an invasion, not a military drill." (04:47)

Harris highlights the similarities between the intelligence warnings preceding the Ukraine invasion and the misleading justifications used by the U.S. in the 2003 Iraq War. This historical parallel underscores the gravity of relying on intelligence without transparent verification.

2. Divergent Perspectives: Washington vs. Kyiv

A central theme of the episode is the starkly different viewpoints held by U.S. policymakers and Ukrainian leaders regarding the conflict's nature and the appropriate response.

• U.S. Strategy: The Biden administration, aware of the potential for rapid Ukrainian collapse, opted for a cautious approach. They aimed to "use some of this intelligence... to undercut the rationale that Putin is going to use to invade Ukraine." (06:02)

• Ukrainian Reality: Contrarily, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintained a public stance of denial about an imminent invasion to prevent public panic. However, behind the scenes, Ukrainian military and intelligence were actively preparing defenses.

• Notable Quote: Zelenskyy confronts the dissonance: "I only asked for two send us weapons or better yet, strengthen us with preventive measures so there." (09:38)

This discrepancy between public statements and private preparations highlights the tension and mistrust that would later strain the U.S.-Ukraine alliance.

3. The Invasion Unfolds: Personal Accounts and Immediate Reactions

As February 2022 dawns, the invasion commences with devastating effect. The episode features poignant personal narratives that capture the chaos and emotional toll of the first days of war.

• Anastasia Lopatyna's Recollection: "I wasn't even in Kyiv. But I also remember the sense of paralysis and utter helplessness... Everything but surviving and the lives of your loved ones." (20:34)

• Rob Chevelle's Emotional Response: "It was this sense of like, apocalypses happening around you... Some of my friends say things like, no, no, no, like, NATO is going to mobilize right now... This was not a joke." (19:10)

These testimonies emphasize the immediate human cost of the invasion and the preliminary underestimation of Russia's military capabilities by both Ukrainians and international observers.

4. The Resilience of Ukraine: Defense and Global Support

Despite initial setbacks, Ukraine's unexpected resilience reshapes the conflict's dynamics. Civilian mobilization and effective use of Western-supplied weaponry play crucial roles.

• Military Adaptation: Ukrainian forces, bolstered by thousands of civilian volunteers and strategic use of supplied weapons like Javelins, began to turn the tide against Russian advances.

• Defiant Leadership: President Zelenskyy's unwavering resolve is encapsulated in his speech: "We are all here. Our military is here. Citizens are here defending our independence, and we will continue to do so." (23:17)

• Strategic Impact: By March 2022, Russian forces were pushed back from key areas around Kyiv, marking a significant early victory for Ukraine and frustrating Russian strategic objectives.

• Insight from Rob Chevelle: "If not for the US weapons... my own hometown and my parents still would have been under the Russian occupation." (24:38)

This segment underscores the critical importance of timely and effective military aid in shaping conflict outcomes.

5. The Boiling the Frog Strategy: Gradual Support and Its Implications

A pivotal discussion in the episode revolves around the U.S.'s "boiling the frog" approach—a strategy of incremental support to Ukraine to avoid provoking Russia overtly.

• Strategic Debate: The hosts and guest Donna Aviv dissect the implications of slow, phased weapon deliveries. Aviv explains, "The boiling the frog strategy was a reflection of the fact that at the end of the day, neither side understands the other side's red lines... too high a risk of triggering a nuclear confrontation." (33:15)

• Operational Challenges: While effective from a bureaucratic standpoint, this strategy often left Ukraine waiting months for critical weaponry, hindering their immediate defensive capabilities.

• Impact on Ukraine: Anastasia Lopatyna critiques the strategy: "You can't just win that way, can you?" (36:39) The delays and predictability allowed Russia to anticipate U.S. support, diminishing its strategic surprise and effectiveness.

This analysis highlights the complex balancing act the U.S. faces between supporting Ukrainian sovereignty and managing global nuclear tensions.

6. Diverging Objectives: Ukraine's Total Victory vs. U.S. Prudence

The episode delves into the fundamental misalignment between Ukrainian aspirations for total victory and the U.S.'s cautious support aimed at avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.

• Ukrainian Standpoint: Ukraine seeks not just to repel Russian forces but to reclaim all occupied territories, driven by historical and existential imperatives.

• U.S. Perspective: The U.S. maintains a policy focused on preserving Ukrainian sovereignty without committing to the full territorial restoration, due to concerns over escalating the conflict.

• Timothy Snyder's Analysis: Historian Snyder argues that the U.S.'s Cold War mindset hinders a clear understanding of Ukraine's needs, stating, "The correct [framing] was this is a conventional war and someone’s going to win and someone’s going to lose." (43:07)

This section elucidates the strategic disconnect that complicates alliance cohesion and conflict resolution.

7. The Turning Point: Ukrainian Victory and Shifting U.S. Policies

By mid-2022, Ukrainian forces successfully defend Kyiv, demonstrating formidable resistance and strategic acumen.

• Strategic Success: Despite overwhelming odds, Ukraine's defense strategy, coupled with effective international support, prevents Russian occupation of the capital.

• Continued U.S. Support: Following initial victories, the U.S. and its allies bolster their commitments, though underlying strategic differences persist.

• Dan Aviv's Perspective: "The American understanding of this war is full of contradictions like these." (44:30) He critiques the U.S. response as overly cautious, limiting Ukraine's ability to achieve comprehensive victories.

The episode underscores the critical juncture at which Ukrainian resilience challenges and potentially reshapes international support paradigms.

8. Political Shifts and Future Uncertainties: The 2024 U.S. Election

As the conflict continues, the 2024 U.S. presidential election introduces new uncertainties regarding the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations.

• Trump's Return: The election of Donald Trump polarizes expectations, with Ukrainians uncertain about his administration's stance on the war.

• Unforeseen Consequences: A pivotal moment occurs when Trump pauses all U.S. military aid to Ukraine following a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy, severely undermining Ukrainian defenses.

• Personal Narratives: Anastasia Lopatyna describes witnessing the fallout from Ukraine: "That leaves Ukraine, which by the way, used to be one of the most pro-American countries in the world, deeply embittered with the United States." (54:50)

• Historical Context: References to past U.S. policies, such as the 2001 Chikinskyv speech and the Bucharest Summit, illustrate a recurring pattern of support followed by strategic restraint.

This segment highlights the fragile nature of international alliances and the profound impact of domestic politics on global conflicts.

9. Conclusion: The Fragility of Alliances and the Path Forward

The episode concludes by reflecting on the enduring challenges facing Ukraine and the imperative for a cohesive international response. Despite setbacks and divergent strategic objectives, the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the critical role of international support remain paramount.

• Final Reflections: Anastasia Lopatyna underscores the existential stakes for Ukraine: "The US can't declare victory if Russia suffers huge losses, but keeps some Ukrainian territory. But we can't. That's millions of Ukrainians living under occupation." (54:50)

• Call to Action: The narrative urges for renewed commitment and strategic clarity to support Ukraine's sovereignty and prevent further humanitarian crises.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Tyler McBrien: "Different camps trying to manipulate around Ukraine. It's late November of 2021..." (02:37)

• Shane Harris: "I think to myself, oh, shit." (02:58)

• Anastasia Lopatyna: "The horror and shock of that first day is still indescribable." (18:17)

• Yulia Timoshenko: "We are all here defending our independence, and we will continue to do so." (23:17)

• Donna Aviv: "If we do X, then Y will definitely happen." (33:15)

• Timothy Snyder (Referenced): "The correct framing was this is a conventional war and someone’s going to win and someone’s going to lose." (43:07)

Key Takeaways

• Strategic Misalignments: The U.S.'s cautious support strategy often conflicted with Ukraine's urgent need for comprehensive military aid, leading to strategic frustrations.

• Resilience and Adaptation: Ukraine's ability to mobilize civilian support and effectively utilize supplied weaponry played a crucial role in defending against Russian advances.

• Political Influence: Domestic U.S. politics, exemplified by the election of Donald Trump, significantly impacted the continuity and effectiveness of international support for Ukraine.

• Imperative for Cohesion: The episode underscores the necessity for aligned strategic objectives and unwavering international commitment to effectively support Ukraine's sovereignty and resilience against aggression.

Final Thoughts

Boiling the Frog serves as a compelling exploration of the intricate interplay between geopolitical strategy, international alliances, and on-the-ground realities of war. By weaving together expert analysis, personal testimonies, and historical context, The Lawfare Podcast provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the challenges and imperatives facing Ukraine and its allies in a rapidly evolving conflict landscape.