Summary of "Escalation, Episode Two: No Guarantees" – The Lawfare Podcast

Release Date: May 27, 2025

Introduction

In the second episode of the narrative podcast series Escalation, hosted by Tyler McBrien and Anastasia Lopatyna of The Lawfare Institute, listeners are taken on an insightful journey into the complex history of U.S.-Ukrainian relations. This episode delves into the pivotal moment when newly independent Ukraine inherited a substantial nuclear arsenal from the former Soviet Union, leading to high-stakes negotiations involving the United States and Russia.

Setting the Scene: A Protest at the White House [03:11 - 05:33]

The episode opens with a vivid depiction of a rainy September day in Washington D.C., where executive producer Max Johnston meets Ukrainian activist Maria Hlitin, known as Marichka, outside the White House. Marichka leads a small group of protesters carrying a 50-foot banner reading "Let Ukraine Strike Back." As they navigate the dense security, the tension underscores the growing frustration among Ukrainians over U.S. policy and support.

The Budapest Memorandum: Origins and Implications [06:19 - 12:02]

The core of the episode examines the Budapest Memorandum, a brief yet monumental agreement signed in the mid-1990s. Ukraine, upon gaining independence after the Soviet Union's collapse, was left with the third-largest nuclear arsenal globally, comprising approximately 900 nuclear warheads and over 2,000 tactical nukes. The United States, aiming to reduce global nuclear threats, negotiated with Ukraine and Russia to dismantle these weapons in exchange for security guarantees.

Maria Hlitin criticizes the memorandum, stating, “History is, you know, going like a circle, and the only thing we need to think of right now is we need to actually learn how to learn from history” (07:21). This sentiment reflects the disappointment felt by many Ukrainians who view the memorandum as a failed promise.

Challenges in Dismantling the Arsenal [12:02 - 17:53]

Despite the apparent benefits, the process of de-nuclearization was fraught with difficulties. Ukraine lacked the financial resources and infrastructure to maintain the nuclear weapons, and the command systems remained under Russian control. Boris Tarasyuk, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister’s deputy in the 90s, emphasized the mistrust developed during these negotiations: “First, do not believe Russians. Second, do not believe Russians. Third, do not believe Russians” (17:15).

Sarah Sievers, a former U.S. Foreign Service Officer, provides a firsthand account of the chaos and mistrust during this period. She recalls rumors about loose nukes in Ukraine, highlighting the precariousness of the situation: “You could go to, like, bars in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, and, you know, there would be like, you want to buy a nuke, go to that bar, talk to this guy, and maybe you'll be lucky” (12:41).

The Breakdown of the Nuclear Deal: A Miscommunication [24:29 - 26:18]

A critical turning point in the memorandum’s history occurred due to a linguistic misunderstanding during negotiations. Steven Peifer, a key American diplomat, recounts the moment when the term “guarantee” was mistranslated, effectively undermining the agreement: “It turned out that both the Russians and the Ukrainians had translated the English word assurances into garanty in Russian and hot and tea in Ukrainian” (24:39). This mistranslation meant that while the Ukrainians sought legally binding guarantees to protect their sovereignty, the U.S. was only willing to offer non-binding assurances, leading to the collapse of the deal.

Aftermath and Long-Term Effects [27:43 - 35:53]

The episode explores the long-term ramifications of the failed memorandum. Ukrainian activist Marichka and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy frequently reference the Budapest Memorandum as a symbol of broken promises, particularly in light of Russia’s continued aggression, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion in 2022. Zelenskyy remarks, “We have a formal obligation, a commitment the United States made to the Ukrainians that if they gave up their nuclear weapons, we would help them protect themselves” (33:46).

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton and Steven Peifer express deep regrets over the flawed agreement. Peifer states, “To the extent that we made a mistake, the mistake was in Washington and in Kyiv is that we did not foresee somebody like Vladimir Putin coming to power and what he did in 2014 and 2022” (34:42). This acknowledgment highlights the unforeseen challenges that have severely tested the credibility of the memorandum.

Ukrainian Discontent and Perception of Betrayal [36:14 - 37:18]

The sentiment of betrayal among Ukrainians is palpable. Sarah Sievers reflects, “Yes, it's a betrayal. We like to point out what we're doing for Ukraine, but look at what we're not doing that we could do” (36:39). This feeling is intensified by ongoing issues such as corruption within Ukraine’s government and the perceived inadequacy of international support in deterring Russian aggression.

Conclusion and Tease for Next Episode [37:18 - End]

The episode concludes by highlighting the enduring legacy of the Budapest Memorandum and its impact on current U.S.-Ukraine relations. As Ukraine faces renewed threats, the broken promises of the past continue to influence its strategic position and international alliances. The hosts hint at future explorations of Ukraine’s internal struggles with corruption and democracy, setting the stage for the next episode.

Notable Quotes with Attribution and Timestamps:

• Maria Hlitin (07:21): “History is, you know, going like a circle, and the only thing we need to think of right now is we need to actually learn how to learn from history.”

• Boris Tarasyuk (17:15): “First, do not believe Russians. Second, do not believe Russians. Third, do not believe Russians.”

• Steven Peifer (24:29): “And I said, this is a deal breaker for us.”

• Sarah Sievers (36:39): “Yes, it's a betrayal. We like to point out what we're doing for Ukraine, but look at what we're not doing that we could do.”

Analysis and Insights

This episode effectively underscores the complex interplay of trust, diplomacy, and strategic interests that have shaped U.S.-Ukrainian relations. The Budapest Memorandum serves as a cautionary tale of how linguistic nuances and political miscalculations can have profound and lasting consequences. The feelings of betrayal among Ukrainians highlight the critical importance of steadfast international commitments, especially in regions fraught with historical tensions and geopolitical rivalries.

Conclusion

Escalation, Episode Two: No Guarantees provides a nuanced exploration of the tumultuous history between the United States and Ukraine, centered around the pivotal Budapest Memorandum. Through detailed narratives and firsthand accounts, the episode illuminates the challenges and failures that have long-term implications for national security and international alliances. For those seeking to understand the roots of contemporary U.S.-Ukraine tensions and the enduring impact of past diplomatic efforts, this episode offers invaluable insights.