The Lawfare Podcast: El Salvador’s President Cracks Down on Gangs—and Democracy

Release Date: June 21, 2025
Host/Author: The Lawfare Institute
Episode Title: Lawfare Archive: El Salvador’s President Cracks Down on Gangs—and Democracy

Introduction and Background

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, released on June 21, 2025, Mary Ford sets the stage by highlighting recent events in Los Angeles that have reignited national debates over President Donald Trump's immigration policies. Central to this discussion is the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland resident who was deported to El Salvador and subsequently held without trial in a notorious maximum-security confinement center. Garcia’s return to the United States on June 6, after nearly three months, underscores the strained partnership between Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele and the Trump administration.

Mary Ford explains, “Abrego Garcia was returned to the United States on June 6, nearly three months after being deported to El Salvador. But during that time, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele made headlines in the United States over his partnership with the Trump administration” ([01:45]).

El Salvador’s Security Crisis and Bukele’s Response

The heart of the episode delves into El Salvador’s tumultuous journey under President Nayib Bukele, focusing on his aggressive crackdown on powerful gangs. Mary Ford introduces the archival episode from May 9, 2023, featuring Manuel Melendez Sanchez, a PhD candidate in political science at Harvard University. Together, they explore Bukele's strategies to dismantle gang influence and the broader implications for democracy in El Salvador.

Bukele’s Crackdown Strategy:
At [04:36], Melendez provides an overview: “Since March of 2022, El Salvador's criminal groups, street gangs known as maras, went on a sudden and very violent killing spree. In its aftermath, Nayib Bukele, the Salvadoran president, and his allies declared a state of emergency, which basically gave the government widespread powers to carry out mass arrests and to imprison those suspected of being gang members since then. So in the 12 months since, El Salvador has conducted a massive number of arrests, nearing 70,000.”

This massive crackdown has led to approximately one in every 100 Salvadorans being incarcerated, significantly reducing gang-related violence. Melendez notes the apparent success: “The sort of headline development in the past five or six months is that as far as we can tell, this crackdown has succeeded in defeating these massive violent criminal groups, at least for now” ([06:02]).

History and Evolution of Gangs in El Salvador

Formation and Rise of the Maras:
Melendez traces the origins of El Salvador's gangs back to the 1990s, post-civil war era. The dismantling of the war left the country vulnerable, with thousands of refugees returning, often forcibly, creating fertile ground for gang recruitment. By the early 2000s, these gangs had grown into powerful, violent organizations that exerted control over entire neighborhoods.

He explains, “The gangs have a long history, but the modern history of these groups really starts in the 1990s... these groups begin to recruit their members and they begin to grow” ([06:21]).

Bukele’s Leadership Style and Use of Social Media

Charismatic and Modern Leadership:
Bukele emerges as a charismatic and youthful leader, breaking the mold of El Salvador’s traditional political figures. His adept use of social media, particularly Twitter, allows him to communicate directly with the populace and international observers. Melendez highlights Bukele’s savvy PR strategies: “Bukele is a little bit of a PR genius... lacks transparency around data... allows the government to turn around and basically cherry pick what's being presented” ([13:49]).

He further elaborates on Bukele's appeal: “Bukele is selling that, oh, I'm not like this old system that's failed everyone. I truly am different. And Salvadorans love that. They respond to that” ([17:05]).

Human Rights Implications of the Crackdown

Severe Human Rights Concerns:
Despite the reduction in violence, Bukele’s methods raise significant human rights concerns. The state of emergency has led to widespread arrests without due process, with estimates ranging from 2,000 to 25,000 wrongful arrests. Additionally, reports indicate dire conditions within overcrowded prisons, with numerous accounts of inmates dying under suspicious circumstances.

Melendez states, “Under the state of emergency... there have been reports from both local and international organizations of many wrongful arrests... conditions inside of these prisons must be extremely dire” ([35:16]).

Popular Support Despite Human Rights Violations

Public Perception and Security Trade-offs:
A paradox emerges where, despite knowing someone who has been wrongfully arrested, Bukele enjoys approval ratings soaring above 80%. Melendez attributes this to the palpable increase in public safety: “88.2% of Salvadorians... say they currently feel very safe in the place where they live... 95% of them tell you that it has something to do with Bukele's crackdown” ([41:23]).

This suggests that many Salvadorans are willing to accept severe sacrifices in personal freedoms and human rights in exchange for enhanced security and reduced gang violence.

Comparison to Peru’s Political Crisis and Future Implications

Lessons from Peru:
Melendez draws a cautionary parallel between El Salvador’s current trajectory and Peru’s experience in the 1990s under President Alberto Fujimori. Both leaders emerged amid security crises, consolidated power by undermining democratic institutions, and maintained high approval despite human rights abuses.

He warns, “what happens in Peru is before long, after a couple of years, Fujimori really, for all intents and purposes has... completely undermine all checks and balances... Bukele is running for reelection in 2024... it's very easy to imagine a scenario where Bukele stays in power not only for a second term, but also a third term” ([64:11]).

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Sustainability of the Crackdown:
While Bukele’s crackdown has achieved short-term success in curtailing gang violence, Melendez remains skeptical about its long-term viability. He highlights several concerns:

1. Re-emergence of Criminal Groups: Persistent underlying issues such as poverty and lack of opportunities may give rise to new or resurgent gangs.
2. Influx of External Criminal Organizations: Absence of major cartels has so far shielded El Salvador, but differing power dynamics could attract foreign criminal enterprises.
3. Reintegration of Formerly Incarcerated Individuals: Massive releases could lead to instability and potential reorganization of gang structures.

Melendez concludes, “This is yet another example of a bug with democracy that we sort of know about and that we've seen before” ([46:47]).

Notable Quotes

• Mary Ford ([01:45]): “Abrego Garcia was returned to the United States on June 6, nearly three months after being deported to El Salvador.”

• Manuel Melendez Sanchez ([06:02]): “The crackdown has succeeded in defeating these massive violent criminal groups, at least for now.”

• Melendez ([13:49]): “There isn't really a lot of transparency around data... allows the government to turn around and basically cherry pick what's being presented.”

• Melendez ([17:05]): “He's selling that, oh, I'm not like this old system that's failed everyone. I truly am different. And Salvadorans love that.”

• Melendez ([35:16]): “Conditions inside of these prisons must be extremely dire.”

• Melendez ([41:23]): “Many Salvadorans have evaluated this trade-off between... we'll take security and safety.”

• Melendez ([64:11]): “It's very easy to imagine a scenario where Bukele stays in power not only for a second term, but also a third term.”

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive examination of Nayib Bukele’s administration in El Salvador, highlighting the delicate balance between achieving security and preserving democratic principles. Through insightful discussions with political science expert Manuel Melendez Sanchez, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the complexities and potential long-term consequences of Bukele’s approach.