Lawfare Archive: Former Ambassador Roberta Jacobson on the Mexico Presidential Election

Summary

The Lawfare Podcast: Former Ambassador Roberta Jacobson on the Mexico Presidential Election
Date: January 11, 2026 (original interview: June 18, 2024)
Host: Anna Hickey
Guest: Roberta Jacobson, former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico

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Episode Overview

This episode revisits a Lawfare Podcast interview from June 2024, following the historic Mexican presidential election that brought Claudia Sheinbaum to power—the first woman and first Jewish president of Mexico. Anna Hickey speaks with former Ambassador Roberta Jacobson about the implications of Sheinbaum’s victory, the political landscape, pressing issues such as cartel violence, the functioning of Mexican democracy, and the future of U.S.-Mexico relations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historic Election Context and Results

• This was Mexico’s largest election, with over 20,000 offices contested, from president to local councilors.

  “It was a massive undertaking and a massive result.” (03:12–03:37)

• Morena (the governing party) and Claudia Sheinbaum won decisively:

  • Sheinbaum defeated her closest rival by 30 points.
  • Morena won 7 of 9 governorships (including Mexico City).
  • Secured a supermajority in the lower house; just shy of the same in the Senate.

  “…it was a mandate. It was a landslide in many ways. And so that was what surprised a lot of people.” —Roberta Jacobson (03:42–04:42)

• Morena is situated from the center-left to the left on Mexico’s political spectrum, though Jacobson notes ex-President AMLO’s populist and at times authoritarian leanings.

  “The party, I would say, would be center, right, center left or leftist.” (04:48–05:14)

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2. Major Issues Shaping the Election

• Top Concerns:

  • Security and cartel violence ranked highest for voters, alongside persistent economic challenges.
  • Economic growth has been anemic (1–3% annually), with social programs deepening citizens’ connection to government.

  “The polls showed that people were extremely concerned about security issues, personal security, cartel violence… and yet… the party was reelected in a landslide.” (05:14–07:24)

• Inflation:

  • Mexico faced higher-than-usual inflation post-COVID, but nothing resembling the hyperinflation seen elsewhere in Latin America. (07:24–08:09)

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3. Democratic Resilience and Authoritarian Risks

• Concerns about a possible slide back toward one-party dominance, referencing Mexico’s 71 years under PRI and relatively young democracy (since 2000).

  “Mexico’s experience with alternating parties in power… is only 24 years old. It’s a young democracy in many respects.” (08:30–09:53)

• Power Concentration Under AMLO:

  • AMLO further centralized executive power, cut budgets of autonomous agencies (especially the electoral body INE), and disparaged civil society and journalists.
  • Attempted reforms to bring independent regulators under direct executive control—raising fears about future checks and balances.

  “It is actions like those that make me much more worried about authoritarianism and potential for one party rule…” (09:53–11:41)

• Cuts to the electoral authority likely had personal motivation:

  “Many people suspect that AMLO’s real reason… was revenge for what he thought was keeping him out of the presidency years ago.” (11:56–13:00)

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4. Claudia Sheinbaum: Continuity or Change?

• Sheinbaum’s political trajectory closely mirrors AMLO’s; she kept tight alignment with him during the campaign, rarely contradicting him, even on scientific or energy policy, despite her own technocratic credentials.

  “She has never contradicted AMLO… there were some strange moments… but there was no way she was gonna let any daylight come between herself and a president who was wildly popular…” (13:09–14:44)

• While seen as disciplined and democratic, questions linger if—when—or how she’ll diverge from her predecessor and political mentor.

  “…how soon, if ever, she diverges from AMLO’s policy… That is a question that’s legitimate since she has been his protege…” (14:56–17:32)

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5. Judicial Overhaul and Civil-Military Relations

• AMLO’s February 2024 Reform Proposals:

  • Most concerning: Proposed election of all judges (including the Supreme Court) via popular vote.
  • Risk: Could put virtually the entire judiciary under the influence of the ruling party, deepening fears of eroded checks and balances.

  “…the level of uncertainty that could bring to Mexico’s judicial system is pretty startling.” (17:48–19:55)

• Other Alarming Proposals:

  • Legalizing expanded military roles in domestic areas such as ports, airports, infrastructure.

  “The judicial power overhaul is the one that really has people concerned…” (17:48–19:55)

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6. Political Violence and Cartel Influence

• Leading up to the election:

  • 36 candidates or campaign affiliates killed; hundreds threatened.
  • Violence targeted mostly local and state candidates, orchestrated by narcotics cartels seeking local influence.

  “Hundreds of cases of people threatened… It was to the best information… entirely carried out… by narcotics cartels.” (23:55–26:02)

• Protection Efforts:

  • Some candidates received police or National Guard protection, but many felt campaigning with bodyguards was untenable.
  • Widespread violence, not limited to a few states. (26:02–27:30)

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7. Policy Approaches to Cartel Violence

• Sheinbaum:

  • Offered few specifics; likely to avoid criticizing AMLO or pre-empting the policy direction before taking office.
  • Her past as Mexico City mayor shows some improvement in local crime rates, hinting she might take a harder line than her predecessor.

  “She has said very little, in part because I think almost anything she said would probably look like a criticism of him and his policy… But some of the rumored cabinet selections suggest she may be thinking about doing more…” (27:41–29:24)

• Opposition:

  • Emphasized prosecuting criminals and breaking from the “hugs not bullets” approach, though concrete policies were lacking.
  • Jacobson emphasizes “follow the money” as a vital strategy for both U.S. and Mexico to undercut cartel power.

  “The most important thing Mexico and the US could do is follow the money… until you dry up the ability to launder their cash… you’re playing whack a mole.” (29:31–32:02)

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8. U.S.-Mexico Relations

• AMLO’s Relationship with Trump and Biden:

  • Cordial, even transactional, with Trump despite policy differences.
  • Productive, though cautious relationship with Biden, especially around migration.

  “Amlo saw himself like Trump, as an outsider... He was highly transactional… the relationship ended up being very heavy on migration and the other issues were not as public at least.” (32:28–36:08)

• Sheinbaum Outlook:

  • Likely positive rapport with Biden 2.0, but a more tenuous dynamic with a prospective Trump return.
  • Mexican domestic reaction to GOP calls for military intervention is one of strong rejection, but such rhetoric earns only fleeting concern in Mexican campaigns.

  “The reaction to those kinds of proposals in the United States, such as bombing the cartels… was huge in Mexico. It’s one of the few things that unifies Mexicans is opposition to those kinds of proposals.” (36:45–38:37)

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9. Femicide, Representation, and Gender Quotas

• Mexico has high rates of violence against women (“femicide”); Sheinbaum—the first woman president—has voiced commitment to change.
• Both leading candidates were women, reflecting years of electoral gender quotas:

  “Parties must have… 50% women [in congressional lists]... to the extent that results in more acceptance of women candidates, I think that may have played a role…” (38:37–41:10)

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10. What to Watch in Sheinbaum’s First Months

• Key early signals:
  • Cabinet appointments (will she pick technocrats or political loyalists?),
  • Response to judicial/military/policy reforms in the pipeline (especially if AMLO attempts last-minute changes before leaving office),
  • Moves on security, economy, renewables policy, and public health.
• Jacobson believes Sheinbaum is less comfortable with an expanded military role in civilian affairs and may seek partial reversals.
• First months will reveal if she charts her own course or follows AMLO closely.

  “How early she deviates from her political mentor I think will be interesting…It may come on energy with more oomph behind the renewables. It could come on an agreement to really get some of the deep water drilling done in the Gulf of Mexico…” (41:16–44:51)

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11. Optimism Amid Uncertainty

• Despite setbacks, the peaceful conduct of a massive election, broad participation (including out-of-country voters), and the ascension of a woman president fuel a sense of hope.

  “There is a sense of hope and optimism in having the first woman president in Mexico… are little Mexican girls going to now think about being president?… I want to try and end it… on an upbeat note because I’m an inveterate optimist.” —Roberta Jacobson (45:00–46:54)

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Notable Quotes

• On Mandate:
  “It was a mandate. It was a landslide in many ways. And so that was what surprised a lot of people.” —Jacobson (04:42)

• On Democratic Backsliding:
  “It is actions like those that make me much more worried about authoritarianism and potential for one party rule…” —Jacobson (09:53)

• On Sheinbaum’s Alignment:
  “She has never contradicted AMLO… no way she was gonna let any daylight come between herself and a president who was wildly popular…” —Jacobson (13:09)

• On Cartel Strategy:
  “The most important thing Mexico and the US could do is follow the money… until you dry up the ability to launder their cash… you’re playing whack a mole.” —Jacobson (29:31–32:02)

• On Hope:
  “There is a sense of hope and optimism in having the first woman president in Mexico… I want to try and end it… on an upbeat note because I’m an inveterate optimist.” —Jacobson (45:00–46:54)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:12 — Scope and Results of 2024 Mexican Election
• 05:14 — Top Issues: Economy and Security
• 08:30 — Concerns about Democratic Backsliding
• 13:09 — Sheinbaum’s Political Trajectory and Relationship with AMLO
• 17:48 — AMLO’s Reform Proposals and Judicial Threats
• 23:55 — Political Violence and Cartel Influence
• 27:41 — Sheinbaum and Opponents’ Policies on Security
• 32:28 — U.S.-Mexico Relations under Trump/Biden
• 36:45 — Mexican Reactions to U.S. Calls for Direct Action against Cartels
• 38:37 — Violence Against Women and Gender Representation
• 41:16 — What to Watch in Sheinbaum’s First Months
• 45:00 — Concluding Optimism about Mexico’s Future

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Conclusion

Anna Hickey and Roberta Jacobson’s conversation offers a nuanced, hopeful, yet clear-eyed look at the challenges and opportunities facing Mexico with Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency. While the Morena landslide creates risks for Mexican democracy and checks and balances, Sheinbaum’s leadership opens new possibilities—especially for women and for more pragmatic, technocratic governance—in a country deeply intertwined with the U.S. The coming months will reveal how she navigates this legacy and forges her own.

Transcript

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I'm Isabella Arroyo, intern at Lawfare, with an episode from the Lawfare archive for January 11, 2026. On January 3, U.S. troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and First Lady Celia Flores in Caracas and transported them to the United States, where they have been indicted in the Southern District of New York on four counts related to drug trafficking and illegal weapons possession. In a statement the day after the raid, President Trump asserted that drugs are still entering the United States from cartels in several Latin American countries, and specifically that drugs are pouring through Mexico and we're going to have to do something. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum responded by reiterating her commitment to security cooperation with the US against cartels, while also emphasizing Mexico's sovereignty and territorial integrity. For today's archive, I chose an episode from June 18, 2024, in which Anna Hickey sat down with former U.S. ambassador to Mexico Roberta Jacobson to discuss the election of President Sheinbaum. The major issues she campaigned on how she would approach combating Mexico's persistent cartel violence and.

[Anna Hickey]

Anna it's the Lawfare Podcast. I'm Anna Hickey, associate editor of communications at Lawfair, with Roberta Jacobson, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico.

[Roberta Jacobson]

What is she going to announce on security, if anything? And some things she may not announce for months, right? Do you want to announce on Security before you know who's in the White House, because that's your security partner. Maybe not. Maybe she holds on that, or maybe there's pressure to do something because that was such an important issue for people.

[Anna Hickey]

Today we're talking about the recent Mexican presidential election and what the election of President elect Claudia Sheinbaum may mean for democracy in Mexico. So today you're joining us to talk about the recent elections that were in Mexico. And first, I just want to ask, you know, who were people voting for? What were the offices that were up for election that day?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, it's a great question because this turns out to have been the largest elections that Mexico has ever held. Over 20,000 offices were up for election from president all the way down to your local council members, the entire Senate and lower house and state governorships in some cases. So it was a massive undertaking and a massive result.

[Anna Hickey]

And what were the results of this election? Did one party do especially well?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, I mean, at the presidential level, most people believed that the current governing party, Morena, their candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, would win. And indeed she won. What I think was unexpected was the size of her victory. It was enormous. She beat her rival, her closest rival, by 30 points. Morena took seven out of nine governorships. If we include Mexico City, which is considered a governorship these days, as well as getting a super majority in the lower house of Congress, which means a lot in terms of what kinds of laws can be passed and constitutional changes, and being two seats shy of a super majority in the Senate, which for practical purposes may be a super majority on individual issues. So it was a really, you know, it was a mandate. It was a landslide in many ways. And so that was what surprised a lot of people.

[Anna Hickey]

Moreno, if you were to put that on the political spectrum of left to right, where would they fall on that spectrum?

[Roberta Jacobson]

You know, I think you could say anywhere from center left to left, certainly, although, you know, the former president, the current president who will be leaving office shortly, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as amlo, was really more a populist and I would argue veering authoritarian than he was a classical leftist. But the party I would say would be center, right, center left or leftist.

[Anna Hickey]

What were the main issues on the top of voters minds as they went to the ballot box to vote for this election?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Well, I think in Mexico, as in our own country, the economy is always on people's minds. It's always a high priority for people. But I think what was interesting about this election was that the polls showed that people were extremely concerned about security issues, personal security, cartel violence in the country. And yet, although Amlo had really done very little about the violence, in fact, it got worse during his tenure. The party was reelected in a landslide. So there's an interesting sort of juxtaposition. Now, on the other hand, economically, the country has had very anemic growth, obviously some loss economically during the COVID pandemic, as most countries had, but it really hasn't recovered fully to sort of leap up. It's had an anemic growth rate of, you know, between 1 and 3% every year for quite a while now. But what Lopez Obrador did that was very interesting is he changed the social programs. And the social programs which benefit more than 26 million Mexicans now give you a cash card that goes directly to you. If you have children and you're getting social benefit for child care, it doesn't go to the child care provider. You don't have to use it with a child care provider. You just get the money. The same is true for care for the elderly and other things. And so there was a very direct connection made by many Mexicans between their president and the money they got from the government. And I think that played a big role. When you're looking at the economy, there were clearly a lot of people not doing that well economically, but they felt connected to this president and they felt that this president understood them in a way that Mexican politicians quite honestly had not in recent decades, frankly.

[Anna Hickey]

And has Mexico also faced the like, high inflation that other, like the US and other countries have faced post Covid?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, I mean, it certainly faced higher inflation than it had had in a while. You know, when you're looking at Latin America and you have countries such as Argentina or others at various times which are talking about triple digit inflation. You know, the first time I ever saw barcode scanners were in Argentina because they couldn't put prices on the actual items in a grocery store fast enough because that's how fast the inflation rate was moving. It is not hyperinflation and it's not high by many standards in this region. But yeah, it was higher than it has been. And that takes its toll. There's no doubt.

[Anna Hickey]

Obviously you mentioned that the results, this, you know, kind of massive victory by the Marino party were a little bit shocking. There have been some concerns that kind of this massive result may, you know, lead to more of a one party political system that Mexico has seen in the past. How seriously are you taking those concerns or do you think people should in General, take those concerns.

[Roberta Jacobson]

I think the answer is I take them quite seriously and I think and hope other people are. Obviously, the pre. The Institutional Revolutionary Party ran Mexico for 71 years until you had a change in governing party in 2000 for the first time. So Mexico's experience with alternating parties in power in some respects is. Is only 24 years old. It's a young democracy in many respects. And I think the reason for the concern is really not just that the same party has been reelected. I think many of us are perfectly comfortable with a party that gets reelected if the population believes they deserve it. I think the thing that makes me more concerned is some of the actions that Lopez Obrador has taken as president that really further concentrate an already fairly presidentially centric, if you will, system in the presidency. There have been the gutting of some budgets of independent agencies, including, frankly, the electoral agency. Mexican elections are publicly funded. That is not to say that private money doesn't get into them somehow, but they are publicly funded.

[Anna Hickey]

And.

[Roberta Jacobson]

And as part of that is a nationwide electoral institution which had been at various times the envy of the world. The head of their electoral institute would go around the world giving talks about how to set this up. And it was really reduced by, I want to say, well, more than 50% of its budget as well as its staff at a time when you were having the largest election ever in Mexico. However, in the end, the elections came off okay. But then you had a proposal by AMLO in February that would basically do away with all the independent regulatory agencies and put them into the executive branch, secretariat, or ministry that they were nearest to. So you're, your telephone regulator might get put into your Ministry of Communications and Transport, or your competition regulator, your antitrust regulator, in some respects, might get put into your economy or your finance ministry. That is worrisome. He also, frankly, had very little patience with what I think is critically important, and that's civil society NGOs. He disparaged them publicly at the microphone, in his daily press conferences. He disparaged some journalists, putting some of their lives in danger. And so it is actions like those that make me much more worried about authoritarianism and potential for one party rule even more than just a party getting reelected once. Right. So I just think it's something that we kind of need to keep an eye on.

[Anna Hickey]

For the first part that you mentioned, with the defunding of the electoral agency, did AMLO give a specific reason for why he was reducing the staff and the funding to that agency before the largest election in Mexico well, the ostensible.

[Roberta Jacobson]

Reason was that it was wasted money, that they had too many people, that there was a lot of chaff that could be cut. The same way he cut government ministries by a third when he came into office, both for fiscal reasons, he said, budgetary reasons, and because he just didn't think they needed all those people. But many people suspect that AMLO's real reason for cutting ine the electoral authority was that in 2006, the first time he ran for president, this was his third attempt. But in 2006, he came the closest until he won when Felipe Calderon was elected by only 0.58% of the vote. And he insisted at that time that he had actually won, that there had been fraud, and that he was the legitimate president of Mexico for months. And so there were many who suspected that his actions vis a vis the ine, frankly, was revenge for what he thought was keeping him out of the presidency years ago.

[Anna Hickey]

And has the president elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, said anything about whether she supported those cuts or whether she'd want to reverse them when she took office?

[Roberta Jacobson]

I mean, it's very interesting because although she has some very different views than AMLO does, and we could talk about that in a second, especially as the election grew closer, I would say kind of in the last year or two, she has never contradicted amlo. In fact, there were many, myself included, who thought she was becoming a kind of mini me for the president. And that included areas which were really surprising, frankly. Amlo made a lot of comments during the COVID pandemic that, frankly, were anti science. And she associated herself with those remarks. She said that she supported the president. This is a woman who was educated as a physicist and. And trained as an environmental engineer, saying she agreed with some positions that were anti science or that she agreed with his position to pursue almost solely fossil fuels during his presidency, when she was a member of the ipcc, the UN Agency intergovernmental pact on climate change that won the Nobel Prize in 2007 and was a real booster of renewables in Mexico City. So there were some strange moments, some things that looked odd, but there was no way she was gonna let any daylight come between herself and a president who was wildly popular in her pursuit, frankly, of the candidacy that she eventually got and now has won the presidency.

[Anna Hickey]

What was President elect's Claudia Shaman's position before running for president? And how closely tied was she to, like the National Marino political party?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, Morena, as a political party, didn't really exist until I want to say it was 2013 or 2014. So AMLO had the same progression that Claudia had, which is to say they started as members of the Pre, they became members of the prd, the Party of Revolutionary Democracy, which was a. A left of center offshoot of the pri. And then AMLO founded Morena, and the PRD has almost ceased to exist. So he's been through this trajectory of three parties and she has been the same. She started out as, although she's younger than him, she started out as a member of the pri and the PRI at that time. And I think this is interesting about Morena now. The Pre for years was such a huge party, right? It was one party government. It had what, what were called currents within it. So. So you had people from the, from almost the far right to the far left who were all part of the prix. Morena has in some ways replicated that. AMLO sounded many times like the Pre in of the 1970s. He's, he's fairly, statistically, he is populist, not a small d democrat in many ways. And she's had that same movement. But I would say having begun as a sort of a local council person in Mexico City and then moved to the mayoralty, which is a huge job in a city the size of Mexico City and now the presidency. She's strong and disciplined as a person and policymaker, I think, but she doesn't demonstrate that authoritarian streak. I think she is a committed small d democrat. But one of the big questions is how soon, if ever, she diverges from AMLO's policy. I mean, she will soon be the president, he will be an ex president. But all the questions in Mexico and surrounding countries these days seem to be who's going to govern him or her. Which may be a little bit of sexual bias there, gender bias, because a woman couldn't possibly actually run the country, seems to be what's being suggested. But it is a question that's legitimate since she has been his protege from being his environment secretary when he was mayor of Mexico City.

[Anna Hickey]

One of the things that I know has been brought up recently, she has recently mentioned judicial overhaul reforms that AMLO had also talked about earlier. Can you talk about what exactly these like, reforms would do and why people are so concerned about them?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, I think that's really important. The reforms that he announced on February 5th of this year are numerous, but the changes to the judicial power are the ones that are getting the most attention, I think greatly so, because they would make virtually all judicial positions Judges at all levels, right up through the Supreme Court and indeed the tribunal, that, that actually comes up with the criteria for selection of judges popularly elected positions. Right. And there are obviously judges elected in the United States in some communities, but I don't, I don't know that that many of us think all of these positions should be elected. They obviously, you know, many of them federal judges and the Supreme Court are confirmed by the Congress. So there is an indirect, you know, representation there confirmed by the Senate. But I think that's the one that has people the most worried because the, the level of uncertainty that that could bring to Mexico's judicial system is pretty startling. And the one thing that investors and business people who are trying to expand in Mexico get more investment for near shoring. The one thing they hate is uncertainty. And I am very worried about that. And a lot of other people are as well. There are other provisions, such as the codification in law of the military's role in certain domestic activities, such as running the ports, the airports, and much infrastructure. That, that is also part of those initiatives that AMLO announced on February 5. And I think those too worry a lot of people. But I think the judicial power overhaul is the one that really has people concerned because they just. With a sweeping election like this in which Morena was so very strong, there's no real way would all judges be politically morenistas from the party. It's just, it's not clear. And that that could be very worrisome.

[Anna Hickey]

I think right now. Are any judges elected in Mexico or would this be a true overhaul?

[Roberta Jacobson]

That is a good question. I don't think any judges are elected right now, but there could be a sort of equivalent of a local judge or justice of the peace that's. That's elected. I mean, I think, I think the biggest, the biggest problem with this also is that AMLO has progressively reduced the checks and balances on the presidency. Right. You're going to have super majority or virtual super majority in both houses of the legislature. If you elect judges, one presumes they will be judges all the way up and down will be more in line with your political positions. And that is the thing that, that has worried me the most, where I don't necessarily think Sheinbaum will move away from this. Will she continue it or accelerate it? I don't know. But this closing of checks and balances, reducing the power of checks and balances on a president with increasing authority, I think is very worrisome. I don't know that she will be able to do as much as he has. He is a super charismatic figure. He really does, you know, connect with people. You might say that she is the anti charisma character candidate. She's very serious. She's not sort of outwardly demonstrative. You know, you have to go around and glad hand and kiss babies and all that good stuff. And she always looked quite uncomfortable with that. But she's incredibly smart and she is disciplined, more technocratic than he is and a little bit perhaps less ideological, you know, so, so it'll be interesting to see whether some of the things that I think are overreach during his government are simply not possible by her because she doesn't command the same kind of affection that clearly lots of people voted for her, but how many of them were voting for a continuation of him? Uncle Tonight's meal Tilapia Surprise with boiled cabbage.

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[Anna Hickey]

Kind of Returning to a comment you made earlier about violence being on the top of voters minds. There were reports of political violence leading up to this election, especially for local candidates. Can you talk a little bit about the violence that local candidates and some federal candidates like faced and who was targeting these candidates?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, I think as of election day there were 36 candidates or people associated with campaigns who were killed ahead of the elections. However, there were hundreds of cases of people threatened and who subsequently pulled out right by death threats or whose families were threatened or other people killed as part of this sort of reign of terror. In some ways, pre election it was to the best information that, that I have. Entirely carried out or almost entirely carried out by narcotics cartels. Which cartels in which areas? I'm not sure I could say exactly because there are some overlaps in places where there are where the violence is greatest. It's because one or where two or more cartels are actually fighting for territory. But this was a very bad year. There was just a lot of intimidation and pressure. And the reason was, and it was much more at the local or state level, it was not at the federal level. If you were running for Congress at the federal level, it doesn't mean you might not have gotten some threats, but you were in much greater danger if you were a lower ranking official. And part of the reason is because what the cartels care most about is, I mean they care about the laws that are being passed at the national level. But what they really care about is will you let them use your territory as they ply their trade? Right. Will you allow them to carry out their activities? And so they want a mayor or a council person or a governor who's going to turn a blind eye or not have very effective policies. And so that's what was going on in many cases. It was pretty obvious that where people were targeted it was because they had said things like we're going to go after organized crime in this state, we're not going to let this continue, people are dying and we're going to lower this level of violence by going after some of these guys.

[Anna Hickey]

Have there been any calls for protection for political candidates like from the federal level or policies that could be implemented in the next congressional term to protect people running for office?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Certainly. I mean, there were a number of very prominent NGOs which spoke out quite forcefully on the need to protect candidates. There were candidates who requested and got protection, either state level protection because there are local, state and federal police or National Guard. And there were many who got that protection. But there were others who thought I Can't go out campaigning with bodyguards all around me. It just sends the wrong message. I can't communicate with people well. And it was the most well intentioned instinct in the world, but it probably wasn't smart in the end. So I think there is going to be a hard look, certainly by the opposition, if not some of the candidates that were killed were included Morena ruling party candidates. But I think they are going to have to take a look at how they organize and protect polling places candidates, you know, candidate fora when they go to local communities. And it wasn't the other difficulty is it wasn't in one or two sections of the country. It was in many. You know, there are states with lower violence rates than others, but there are none that are untouched by this.

[Anna Hickey]

While she was running for office, did Claudia Sheinbaum mention any specific policies to combat these, these high levels of violence or was it just a continuation of AMLO's policies from the previous six years?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, to the best of my knowledge, she did not come out with anything specific on the security situation and the violence. I suspect that's in part because his policy, which was referred to as hugs not bullets because in Spanish it rhymes, abrasos nibalazos. So he wanted to attack the problem at its socioeconomic level level and try and get kids to not join the cartels. And frankly, he didn't even do enough of that to make a difference. But he certainly didn't go after these guys either in prosecution terms or potentially extradition. He did extradite a number of people late in his term, but it was very late, not as many as his predecessors had done. So she has said very little, in part because I think almost anything she said would probably look like a criticism of him and his policy. But some of the rumored cabinet selections suggest she may be thinking about doing more, certainly more than he did, as she did, frankly, more in Mexico City. Mexico City's crime rate, while not as low as people would like, it did come down somewhat during her tenure, whereas nationwide it was continuing to skyrocket. So. And she picked a career cop for her interior ministry, which is very interesting, a young guy who's, who's really very impressive. So I think it'll be interesting to see what she, she does on the security issue. I'm hopeful she will do more than he did, but I don't know that she could say so until she's in power.

[Anna Hickey]

And did the opposition candidates have any specific policies to roll out?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yes, sorry, I knew where you were going with that. You Know, they did. They certainly made a big deal of the lack of ability to control this by the governing party and that people could just expect more of the same in violence. They did have some policies that they talked about, although in some respects it wasn't a policy heavy election. You know, they did talk about prosecuting people, about the timidity of this administration to go after bad guys and prosecute them, which was in some ways seen in its most unfortunate form when I think it was quite early in his government. The military went into Culiacan, Sinaloa, which is where Chapa Guzman was based, where he lived and his family still lives. And there was a shootout taking place among gangs members that then turned on the military, and it was led by one of Chapo's kids. And after quite a while of this going on in the middle of town, there were discussions between the two. And basically Chapo's son, Ovidio, said, well, you know, he. You're going to keep coming after us. We're just going to kill everybody here. We'll kill half the town. And Amlo decided to, in essence, do a strategic retreat from the town rather than lose both all these civilians and potentially a lot of his military participants. But it was seen as a terrible, terrible message to send. All you have to do is overpower us by force and we leave. So, you know, there were lots of things that happened that the opposition could capitalize on by saying, you've got to prosecute these people, got to prosecute them here, you've got to send them to the U.S. more than that, I don't know that there were a lot of specifics. You know, my own view is that the most important thing Mexico and the US could do is follow the money. The old Watergate saying is still true. Money is the absolute essential for these guys, whether they get it by extortion or murder or drugs or trafficking people. And so you can crack down on one crime or another, but until you dry up the ability to launder their cash and the cash itself, they're just going to come back doing something else. You're playing whack a mole and then.

[Anna Hickey]

Thinking about cooperation between Mexico and the United States. Obviously, early on in Amlo's term, there were reports that he and, at the time, President Trump did not fully get along after President Biden was elected. What was the relationship between Amlo and President Biden? And does that tell us anything about how we can expect President elect Sheinbaum to work with President Biden this fall? And then whoever wins the US Presidential elections in November.

[Roberta Jacobson]

Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because I think, although there's no doubt that Amlo disagreed with a lot of policies that former President Trump was implementing, whether it was the wall or other things. I thought it was interesting because Amlo saw himself like Trump, as an outsider to politics, shaking up the system. He did. And he was highly transactional, which Trump was also. So there was a weird relationship that in some respects wasn't as bad as it should have been based on policy. I think Amlo has gotten along quite well with Biden. Partly it's a personal thing. Biden is a sort of old time folksy politician. Amlo, as populist as he is, is also somebody who loves meeting the voters and talking with them and all the rest of that. I think what Amlo was really afraid of was that the United States would focus on, on things like democracy, human rights, femicides in Mexico, other things. And you know, Mexico has always hated that interference, the way they view it in some cases. And Amla was particularly sensitive that we not as a US Government that didn't muck around in their internal affairs and in particular on things that that mattered to him like presidential power. What was interesting was the relationship ended up being very heavy on migration and the other issues were not as public at least. And that suited Amlo just fine because on migration, while it wasn't an easy thing for him to do, he kind of held the cards right. Mexico was could help at its southern border and throughout the territory of Mexico, or it could not help and let things get really awful right at the border, which has happened obviously on, on many occasions. And so I think he did and cooperate with the United States and have a decent relationship. But it was much more on his terms than I think the US Would have liked. And so I think he would continue to have. Sheinbaum would have a very positive relationship with a Biden Administration 2.0. I think it would be a little bit more diverse, but that depends entirely on what migration numbers really are and whether they stay because right now they're quite low. People don't realize that because they were so high at the end of last year and beginning of this year, but they're actually quite low right now. I am presuming that a relationship between Sheinbaum and a Trump second term would be much more tense because we would go back to talking about walls. And worse yet, in the environment we're in in the US Congress, there'd be discussion of invasion or sending military, which would never actually come to pass because Mexico would have to agree. But I could see where that relationship might be much more difficult. And she isn't a folksy personality. She, you know, neither is Trump. But I'm unsure how, how they would get along. I think it would be formal and correct when and if they met. And in between, perhaps a little uglier, I don't know.

[Anna Hickey]

And to focus in on something you mentioned, which was, you know, during a lot of the Republican primary presidential debates and then obviously some Republican congressional members have mentioned a possible, you know, think one of them mentioned bombing cartels in Mexico are putting in.

[Roberta Jacobson]

Oh, yes, yes. Yeah, I heard that one.

[Anna Hickey]

Bringing in the US Military into Mexico. How much traction did those comments get in the Mexican political commentary? And was that brought up at all during the Mexican presidential elections as something to watch out for, how the candidates would address that, or was it really just tertiary to the big corruption, violence, economy issues?

[Roberta Jacobson]

It's always interesting to me US Presidential elections and US Politics are so much more important in Mexico than vice versa. Right. So I think, I mean, the reaction to those kinds of proposals in the United States, such as bombing the cartels, et cetera, was huge in Mexico. It's one of the few things that unifies Mexicans is opposition to those kinds of proposals. But I think at the same time, it didn't really have much staying power in the campaign. I mean, whether you could have a good relationship with the United States is usually an issue. But I think this time around, both Xochit Galvez, who was the opposition largest candidate, and Claudia Sheinbaum both asserted, I think correctly, that they could have put productive, positive relations with the United States. And so right now, Mexicans are thinking more of Biden, not of our election. And so the whole that kind of statement gets a day or two of righteous indignation from everyone and then they move back to, but what are you going to do about the economy and what are you going to do about security and what are you going to do about a collapsing health care system, frankly, and so forth. So it was interesting that in some respects it didn't have the impact that I thought it might, but that could change when the US Presidential election heats up and we have our debates and so forth and more of this kind of talk gets to Mexico after their own elections. You may hear this become much more a conversation among political and economics leaders than you have.

[Anna Hickey]

And you also mentioned femicide earlier. And you know, violence against women and femicide has been a serious issue in Mexico. And Claudia Shaban has become the first woman, first Jewish woman elected president. And I believe this was the first presidential election in Mexico where the two primary candidates were both women, both female candidates.

[Roberta Jacobson]

Absolutely. Yeah.

[Anna Hickey]

So does this, you know, rise in, you know, female politicians and women political power have any indication for how Mexico is addressing female and violence against women?

[Roberta Jacobson]

I think the only thing I can say to this is I hope so. I really hope so. Sheinbaum has definitely spoken about it, about the importance of protecting women, of reducing these kinds of killings, of changing Mexican society, if you will. She views her own, both candidacy and now election as a reflection of that, and it surely is. I mean, the notion that two women were the major candidates for this election was just stunning in many respects. But it was also interesting because Mexico has had electoral quotas for a number of years now. So parties must have, for example, in their congressional lists, they must have 50% women. And the houses of Congress have. Well, the party system is interesting because some of the congresspeople and senators are elected directly and some are part of a plurinominal list in which, depending on the percentage of votes a party gets, the first 15 names on the ballot might get into the Senate or the House, and not the next five or the first 20, but not the rest. So it's an unusual hybrid system. But there have been women at the local and at the national level in Congress for quite a while now because of these quotas. And, you know, to the extent that that results in more acceptance of women candidates, I think that may have played a role, even though neither of these women. Well, actually, I take it back, Sochi was in the Senate, so when she ran for Xochil. Galvez was in the Senate when she ran for president. So she was part of that quota. You know, so it's interesting. Claudia Sheinbaum, I don't think ever was because she was at a local level. But the party still has to demonstrate they're putting women candidates forward. And I've always had mixed feelings about quotas, but it may well have worked.

[Anna Hickey]

And then looking forward to this fall, I believe President Elect Scheinbem will take office October 1st.

[Roberta Jacobson]

Right.

[Anna Hickey]

What are you looking at in her first months in office to see whether or not she will continue potentially anti Democratic policies or. What are you looking at to see what she may reverse out of AMLO's term?

[Roberta Jacobson]

I guess. You know, it's interesting. It's a strange system, partly because the new Congress comes in September 1st, the new president comes in October 1st. So you have this odd month in which AMLO will still be president, but he's going to have the new Congress. But in any case, I think you have. There are a couple of touch points. One will happen far earlier, which is she'll announce her cabinet picks and that will be very instructive, I think. But I think the other thing that I would look for is she made a comment recently that she might have some of her own constitutional reforms that she's interested in advancing. And the presumption there was that he would succeed in getting his passed in that month period when he's still president. I don't know if he will or not. I wonder what those will be. Will she announce something soon? She is much less comfortable with a strong military role in civilian functions than Amlo is. Much less comfortable. And I don't know that she would directly take Amlo on on that issue. But it'll be interesting to see if she finds a way to re. Civilianize a little bit the security apparatus. The National Guard, for example, which really is military now it's not a civilian national police the way they once had. You know, what is she going to do on health? Covid and a series of very unfortunate decisions by the government on prescription pricing and other things has resulted in almost the collapse of the public health system. If you go to a private doctor or hospital, you can still do fine, but it costs way too much for most people. How is she? I would look to some of those things which are on people's minds. What is she going to announce on security, if anything? And some things she may not announce for months. Right. Do you want to announce on security before you know who's in the White House because that's your security partner. Maybe not. Maybe she holds on that or maybe there's pressure to do something because that was such an important issue for people. How early she deviates from her political mentor I think will be interesting. It may come on energy with more oomph behind the renewables. It could come on an agreement to really get some of the deep water drilling done in the Gulf of Mexico, which Pemex, the state oil company, can't do. It doesn't have the capability. It can only do that in consortia with international oil companies which were formed under the energy reform under the previous government before Lopez Obrador. But they've all gotten stalled because Pemex wants to control everything. Does she try and get those moving? They're going to need the revenue. Their oil revenues are dropping and they won't get enough renewables. Replacing that soon enough. So I would look to some of those economic decisions, maybe a security decisions and a kind of a kitchen table decision, whether that's on health or other things that will resonate with her base in the first months.

[Anna Hickey]

And then do you have any final thoughts for us today about the elections, Mexico, or what U.S. mexico relations may look like in the coming months and years?

[Roberta Jacobson]

Well, I think a couple of things, Anna. First of all, I guess what I would say is given the budget cuts to the electoral authority and the violence that plagued parts of the country ahead of the election, it was a remarkably peaceful day. On the election day itself, tens of thousands of Mexicans voted outside Mexico for the first time in person, not just by mail or Internet. And so I think Mexican people and the electoral authority, it sounds kind of trite, but they are to be congratulated for going to the polls and casting their votes despite everything. And there were a lot of things that could have hindered them. Second, I think there is a sense of hope and optimism in having the first woman president in Mexico that, you know, I think those of us who've been doing this work for a while can get really cynical about whether that matters. And I think the answer is it does matter. And I hope it matters to a lot of people. I was the first US Ambassador, female US Ambassador in Mexico, still the only one. I had families coming up asking if I would take a picture with their daughter. Right. That's what's going to happen to Claudia Sheinbaum on a much larger level than the US Ambassador. But. But are little Mexican girls going to now think about being president? So I want to try and end it, in a sense, on an upbeat note because I'm an inveterate optimist. And I think this relationship to me has always been the most important for everyday Americans on a daily basis because our economies are so linked, because our families are so linked, and because some of the plagues that affect us are so linked, like drugs. We really need to keep this relationship strong. And I think there's some optimism that it will stay that way.

[Anna Hickey]

On that optimistic note, we will leave it there. Ambassador Jacobson, thank you so much for joining us today.

[Roberta Jacobson]

Thank you. Really appreciated it.

[Anna Hickey]

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