The Lawfare Podcast: Former Ambassador Roberta Jacobson on the Mexico Presidential Election
Date: January 11, 2026 (original interview: June 18, 2024)
Host: Anna Hickey
Guest: Roberta Jacobson, former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico

Episode Overview

This episode revisits a Lawfare Podcast interview from June 2024, following the historic Mexican presidential election that brought Claudia Sheinbaum to power—the first woman and first Jewish president of Mexico. Anna Hickey speaks with former Ambassador Roberta Jacobson about the implications of Sheinbaum’s victory, the political landscape, pressing issues such as cartel violence, the functioning of Mexican democracy, and the future of U.S.-Mexico relations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historic Election Context and Results

• This was Mexico’s largest election, with over 20,000 offices contested, from president to local councilors.

  “It was a massive undertaking and a massive result.” (03:12–03:37)

• Morena (the governing party) and Claudia Sheinbaum won decisively:

  • Sheinbaum defeated her closest rival by 30 points.
  • Morena won 7 of 9 governorships (including Mexico City).
  • Secured a supermajority in the lower house; just shy of the same in the Senate.

  “…it was a mandate. It was a landslide in many ways. And so that was what surprised a lot of people.” —Roberta Jacobson (03:42–04:42)

• Morena is situated from the center-left to the left on Mexico’s political spectrum, though Jacobson notes ex-President AMLO’s populist and at times authoritarian leanings.

  “The party, I would say, would be center, right, center left or leftist.” (04:48–05:14)

2. Major Issues Shaping the Election

• Top Concerns:

  • Security and cartel violence ranked highest for voters, alongside persistent economic challenges.
  • Economic growth has been anemic (1–3% annually), with social programs deepening citizens’ connection to government.

  “The polls showed that people were extremely concerned about security issues, personal security, cartel violence… and yet… the party was reelected in a landslide.” (05:14–07:24)

• Inflation:

  • Mexico faced higher-than-usual inflation post-COVID, but nothing resembling the hyperinflation seen elsewhere in Latin America. (07:24–08:09)

3. Democratic Resilience and Authoritarian Risks

• Concerns about a possible slide back toward one-party dominance, referencing Mexico’s 71 years under PRI and relatively young democracy (since 2000).

  “Mexico’s experience with alternating parties in power… is only 24 years old. It’s a young democracy in many respects.” (08:30–09:53)

• Power Concentration Under AMLO:

  • AMLO further centralized executive power, cut budgets of autonomous agencies (especially the electoral body INE), and disparaged civil society and journalists.
  • Attempted reforms to bring independent regulators under direct executive control—raising fears about future checks and balances.

  “It is actions like those that make me much more worried about authoritarianism and potential for one party rule…” (09:53–11:41)

• Cuts to the electoral authority likely had personal motivation:

  “Many people suspect that AMLO’s real reason… was revenge for what he thought was keeping him out of the presidency years ago.” (11:56–13:00)

4. Claudia Sheinbaum: Continuity or Change?

• Sheinbaum’s political trajectory closely mirrors AMLO’s; she kept tight alignment with him during the campaign, rarely contradicting him, even on scientific or energy policy, despite her own technocratic credentials.

  “She has never contradicted AMLO… there were some strange moments… but there was no way she was gonna let any daylight come between herself and a president who was wildly popular…” (13:09–14:44)

• While seen as disciplined and democratic, questions linger if—when—or how she’ll diverge from her predecessor and political mentor.

  “…how soon, if ever, she diverges from AMLO’s policy… That is a question that’s legitimate since she has been his protege…” (14:56–17:32)

5. Judicial Overhaul and Civil-Military Relations

• AMLO’s February 2024 Reform Proposals:

  • Most concerning: Proposed election of all judges (including the Supreme Court) via popular vote.
  • Risk: Could put virtually the entire judiciary under the influence of the ruling party, deepening fears of eroded checks and balances.

  “…the level of uncertainty that could bring to Mexico’s judicial system is pretty startling.” (17:48–19:55)

• Other Alarming Proposals:

  • Legalizing expanded military roles in domestic areas such as ports, airports, infrastructure.

  “The judicial power overhaul is the one that really has people concerned…” (17:48–19:55)

6. Political Violence and Cartel Influence

• Leading up to the election:

  • 36 candidates or campaign affiliates killed; hundreds threatened.
  • Violence targeted mostly local and state candidates, orchestrated by narcotics cartels seeking local influence.

  “Hundreds of cases of people threatened… It was to the best information… entirely carried out… by narcotics cartels.” (23:55–26:02)

• Protection Efforts:

  • Some candidates received police or National Guard protection, but many felt campaigning with bodyguards was untenable.
  • Widespread violence, not limited to a few states. (26:02–27:30)

7. Policy Approaches to Cartel Violence

• Sheinbaum:

  • Offered few specifics; likely to avoid criticizing AMLO or pre-empting the policy direction before taking office.
  • Her past as Mexico City mayor shows some improvement in local crime rates, hinting she might take a harder line than her predecessor.

  “She has said very little, in part because I think almost anything she said would probably look like a criticism of him and his policy… But some of the rumored cabinet selections suggest she may be thinking about doing more…” (27:41–29:24)

• Opposition:

  • Emphasized prosecuting criminals and breaking from the “hugs not bullets” approach, though concrete policies were lacking.
  • Jacobson emphasizes “follow the money” as a vital strategy for both U.S. and Mexico to undercut cartel power.

  “The most important thing Mexico and the US could do is follow the money… until you dry up the ability to launder their cash… you’re playing whack a mole.” (29:31–32:02)

8. U.S.-Mexico Relations

• AMLO’s Relationship with Trump and Biden:

  • Cordial, even transactional, with Trump despite policy differences.
  • Productive, though cautious relationship with Biden, especially around migration.

  “Amlo saw himself like Trump, as an outsider... He was highly transactional… the relationship ended up being very heavy on migration and the other issues were not as public at least.” (32:28–36:08)

• Sheinbaum Outlook:

  • Likely positive rapport with Biden 2.0, but a more tenuous dynamic with a prospective Trump return.
  • Mexican domestic reaction to GOP calls for military intervention is one of strong rejection, but such rhetoric earns only fleeting concern in Mexican campaigns.

  “The reaction to those kinds of proposals in the United States, such as bombing the cartels… was huge in Mexico. It’s one of the few things that unifies Mexicans is opposition to those kinds of proposals.” (36:45–38:37)

9. Femicide, Representation, and Gender Quotas

• Mexico has high rates of violence against women (“femicide”); Sheinbaum—the first woman president—has voiced commitment to change.
• Both leading candidates were women, reflecting years of electoral gender quotas:

  “Parties must have… 50% women [in congressional lists]... to the extent that results in more acceptance of women candidates, I think that may have played a role…” (38:37–41:10)

10. What to Watch in Sheinbaum’s First Months

• Key early signals:
  • Cabinet appointments (will she pick technocrats or political loyalists?),
  • Response to judicial/military/policy reforms in the pipeline (especially if AMLO attempts last-minute changes before leaving office),
  • Moves on security, economy, renewables policy, and public health.
• Jacobson believes Sheinbaum is less comfortable with an expanded military role in civilian affairs and may seek partial reversals.
• First months will reveal if she charts her own course or follows AMLO closely.

  “How early she deviates from her political mentor I think will be interesting…It may come on energy with more oomph behind the renewables. It could come on an agreement to really get some of the deep water drilling done in the Gulf of Mexico…” (41:16–44:51)

11. Optimism Amid Uncertainty

• Despite setbacks, the peaceful conduct of a massive election, broad participation (including out-of-country voters), and the ascension of a woman president fuel a sense of hope.

  “There is a sense of hope and optimism in having the first woman president in Mexico… are little Mexican girls going to now think about being president?… I want to try and end it… on an upbeat note because I’m an inveterate optimist.” —Roberta Jacobson (45:00–46:54)

Notable Quotes

• On Mandate:
  “It was a mandate. It was a landslide in many ways. And so that was what surprised a lot of people.” —Jacobson (04:42)

• On Democratic Backsliding:
  “It is actions like those that make me much more worried about authoritarianism and potential for one party rule…” —Jacobson (09:53)

• On Sheinbaum’s Alignment:
  “She has never contradicted AMLO… no way she was gonna let any daylight come between herself and a president who was wildly popular…” —Jacobson (13:09)

• On Cartel Strategy:
  “The most important thing Mexico and the US could do is follow the money… until you dry up the ability to launder their cash… you’re playing whack a mole.” —Jacobson (29:31–32:02)

• On Hope:
  “There is a sense of hope and optimism in having the first woman president in Mexico… I want to try and end it… on an upbeat note because I’m an inveterate optimist.” —Jacobson (45:00–46:54)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:12 — Scope and Results of 2024 Mexican Election
• 05:14 — Top Issues: Economy and Security
• 08:30 — Concerns about Democratic Backsliding
• 13:09 — Sheinbaum’s Political Trajectory and Relationship with AMLO
• 17:48 — AMLO’s Reform Proposals and Judicial Threats
• 23:55 — Political Violence and Cartel Influence
• 27:41 — Sheinbaum and Opponents’ Policies on Security
• 32:28 — U.S.-Mexico Relations under Trump/Biden
• 36:45 — Mexican Reactions to U.S. Calls for Direct Action against Cartels
• 38:37 — Violence Against Women and Gender Representation
• 41:16 — What to Watch in Sheinbaum’s First Months
• 45:00 — Concluding Optimism about Mexico’s Future

Conclusion

Anna Hickey and Roberta Jacobson’s conversation offers a nuanced, hopeful, yet clear-eyed look at the challenges and opportunities facing Mexico with Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency. While the Morena landslide creates risks for Mexican democracy and checks and balances, Sheinbaum’s leadership opens new possibilities—especially for women and for more pragmatic, technocratic governance—in a country deeply intertwined with the U.S. The coming months will reveal how she navigates this legacy and forges her own.