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- [00:01]
Podcast Host
The following podcast contains advertising to access an ad free version of the Lawfare Podcast. Become a material supporter of lawfare@patreon.com lawfare that's patreon.com Lawfair also check out Lawfare's other podcast offerings, Rational Security, Chatter, Lawfare, no Bull and the Aftermath why Choose a Sleep Number Smart Bed?
- [00:34]
Mary Ford
Can I make my sight softer?
- [00:35]
Brian Winter
Can I make my site firmer? Can we sleep cooler?
- [00:39]
Podcast Host
Sleep Number does that cools up to eight times faster and lets you choose your ideal comfort on either side your Sleep Number setting. Get early Access to sleep number's biggest sale of the year, 25% off the i8 bed. Our most popular plus free home delivery limited time All Sleep Number Smart beds offer temperature solutions for your best sleep. Check it out at a Sleep number store or sleepnumber.com today. Group health insurance can put businesses in a tough position Now a new form of employer coverage called an ICHRA can help. Unlike group insurance, ICHRAs offer predictable costs and personalized health plans. Learn more at ambetterhealth.comichra.
- [01:30]
Mary Ford
I'M Mary Ford, intern at Lawfare, with an episode for the Lawfare archive for August 9, 2025. This week, President Trump announced a new round of sweeping tariffs. Brazil and India were two of the most hard hit countries, with tariff rates jumping to 50% on Wednesday. While President Trump's economic brinksmanship has led some countries like Switzerland to come to the negotiating table, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been defiant in his response. In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Lula indicated that he had no intention of having direct talks with President Trump, saying he, quote, won't humiliate himself. For today's archive episode, I selected an episode from June 7, 2023, in which Serafine Dunani sat down with Editor in Chief of America's Quarterly Brian Winter to take stock of President Lula's performance in his first hundred days in office, his vision for Brazil and more. So we had you back, I think in November and then even before then in September when Lula was running for president of Brazil and then in November. He had just won the election at the time. You shared your predictions on what Lula's first 100 days in office would look like. It's been about roughly 150 days since Lula took office, and I'm wondering what ended up coming to surface. Were there any surprises in the last 100 days or any curve balls that you didn't expect?
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Brian Winter
Well, it seems like it's been 300 days as opposed to 150 because there's been so much action. Brazil is rarely boring. Lula, whatever you think of him, is a leader who is always out there mixing things up in an active way. And so far, I would say that, you know, when you're in Brazil, as I was fairly recently, what you sense is in certain quarters is a degree of normalcy that has returned after the tension of the Jair Bolsonaro years. You know, a lot of the things that we were worried about during the Bolsonaro years, mainly the integrity of Brazil's democracy. Those concerns are not gone. But Lula has managed to bring a degree of institutional calm that we really didn't see during the Bolsonaro administration. Some of those worries about Brazil's democracy have been replaced by concerns about the economy under Lula's watch, about Brazil's place in the world, particularly his comments on Ukraine and Russia drew a lot of attention all around the world in recent weeks. There are some concerns about stewardship of the Amazon as well. But, you know, these kind of existential questions that we were asking ourselves about the future of Brazil's democracy, whether it would remain intact, those seem to have dissipated somewhat during this time.
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Mary Ford
So let's take some of these issues in turn. Let's start with the economy. What is happening in Brazil, and how is Lula responding?
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Brian Winter
Well, if you talk to people in the business community in Brazil, they're pretty negative. You know, Lula has come back in and really re emphasized the state's role in the economy in a way that the private sector doesn't generally like. Brazil is a country that, by Latin American standards, it already has one of the biggest, most active states of any. Any country in the region. Taxes are very high. Regulations are very complex. And, you know, those are things that the private sector doesn't usually like. At the same time, the global economy has changed in a way that's actually somewhat positive for Brazil. There is clear demand for Brazil's commodities in particular. There's also been some signs of life in the agribusiness sector. And as a result, economists and others are currently ratcheting up their growth forecasts for Brazil for this year. The latest expectation in this weekly survey that the Brazilian Central bank takes. They now expect growth this year of about 1.7%. That's up from 1% just a month ago. Neither of these are great figures, but, you know, it's above the trend that we've seen in Brazil in recent years. So I'd say, you know, a mixed picture with some grumbling from the private sector, but external environment that seems to be pushing the country in a more positive direction.
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Mary Ford
Anyway, the reason I also wanted to invite you on this podcast at this point is because of the second item that you mentioned, which is Brazil is also tackling some questions about its place in the world. So why don't we start with the war in Ukraine? Lula is adamant on keeping Brazil neutral, but in the process, he seems to be playing footsie with Russia, much to the US's chagrin. So what's motivating that?
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Brian Winter
Well, I think that there's a strategic motivation for Brazil on this one and a personal motivation for Lula. And these things mix together, but it's best to talk about them separately. The strategic motivation is Brazilian foreign policy thinkers, including Celso Amorin, who is Lula's top foreign policy advisor, was also effectively the most important person on foreign policy during Lula's first presidency from 2003 to 2010. This group of people really believe that a multipolar world in which there are several different powers competing for prominence is a better world for Brazil. That this shift from a US dominated, so called hegemonic world order that we've seen for the last, at least the last 30 years, that it's been okay for Brazil, but that Brazil as a large country, as a large economy, would benefit from a relative weakening of the United States and the rise of other countries, including those of the global south, like Brazil, India, China, but also potentially Russia is sometimes included in that group. Of course, Brazil is a member, a charter member of the BRICS, which is that group that's been around for 20 years that also includes Russia, India, China and South Africa. And you know, that's a point of view that you can be in favor of, that reasonable people can disagree, but that's the way they see things personally. At a personal level, Lula believes that he is writing the final chapter of his biography. And it is a long, epic biography. This is a guy who has been at center stage in Brazilian politics for more than 40 years now. And you have to remember that the previous chapter was one of disgrace, where he went to jail on corruption charges that were then later thrown out. And he has now kind of staged this triumphant return to the presidency. But he still feels the pressure of those nearly two years that he was in jail. He knows that that is a stain on his story. So he is determined to make this final chapter as good as it can be. And at some point, either he convinced himself or someone convinced him that mediating peace in Ukraine was. Was part of the way to write this amazing final chapter that would make people forget at least somewhat, what happened before. Now, where Lula has gotten into trouble on this is when he doesn't sound neutral. I mean, it's one thing to be neutral on the Russia versus Ukraine question, but when Lula has said things like Zelensky and Putin deserve easy, equal blame for their share in the war, or when Lula says that above all, what has contributed to the war is the actions of the United States and the European Union, that's not really. I mean, I don't think, at least that doesn't sound like neutral rhetoric. That sounds like Russian rhetoric. And that is certainly one reason why these comments have generated so much attention.
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Mary Ford
Why is that? He knows better. As a politician, he ran under the slogan of peace and love. It's a little bit surprising that he, under the guise of being neutral, is cozying up to Russia.
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Brian Winter
Well, you can ask yourself lots of questions about why Lula is doing this. And I frequently joke that the best analysts of Latin American politics are not political analysts, but psychoanalysts. The reason I say this is because executives, presidents, are so strong and most of these forms of government, that so much of it ends up coming down to kind of the feelings and whims of this one individual. And in the case of Lula, I've tried to understand why he has said and done these things. And, you know, my conclusion has been that, again, Lula believes that a multipolar world would be better for Brazil than the current world order. I, to me, that's a. A reasonable argument. The problem is, is that he sometimes seems set on tearing down the west and specifically the United States in order for that new order to become a reality. He and his. The people in his government would strongly dispute that and point out that Lula made a trip very early in his government to the White House to see President Biden and that they value all of these partnerships equally. But I think it's fair to say that Lula's actions and statements over the last several months raise doubts about how strong a relationship he wants with the United States and what kind of role he wants the US to play in the world. His actions often, I mean, he takes frequent digs at Washington, and he has made these statements which I think, you know, can be interpreted. I don't think it's anti Americanism per se. I just think they are the actions of someone who, you know, believes that a world with a less powerful United States would be a better world. And okay, I get it. But you have to also understand that that's not going to go over well, not only in the United States, but in Europe, where, you know, my understanding is that some of the most, you know, disappointed reactions have come from not the US But Europe in a way that would have been really difficult to predict prior to Lula taking office. I mean, look, there was so much goodwill around Lula in the capitals of Western Europe. People, for the most part there were happy to see the back of Bolsonaro. They really believed in Lula's, you know, biography and story and thought that he did a good time the first time around. But Lula's you know, insistence on making, you know, inserting himself into these discussions about peace in Ukraine have really cost him a lot of trust in some of those places.
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Mary Ford
Now, turning maybe towards the region itself, last week Lula invited Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to Brazil after the country's cutais some eight years ago. What is Lula doing here? Is this an effort to unite Latin American countries under a single bloc? Or does this suggest that Lula perhaps is becoming more comfortable with left leaning dictators in the region?
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Brian Winter
Well, you could make an argument that Lula was always comfortable with left leaning dictators in the region. He had a good relationship with Hugo Chavez under circumstances that were somewhat less authoritarian 15 years ago. I mean, I think the Venezuela of today is, is clearly a much worse, much more authoritarian place than it was during the 2000s when Lula was first in charge. But, you know, to speak to your question, I think, and this is a corollary of some of what we've been talking about up until now, I think it reveals Lula's worldview, which is that the most important thing is that people be on the side of the people, that they be on the left, and that Lula is willing to forgive a lot, including in the Venezuelan case, a regime that imprisons and tortures its political opposition as long as they are on the left. I think it's a worldview that prizes that again, that that ideology above questions of democracy. I think there are other elements here. I think, as you mentioned, that South American collaboration and integration is important to the Lula government. I understand the decision that Lula made to invite Maduro to Brasilia, that again, is something that a reasonable person could argue in favor of. They share a long border. There was arguably no good in leaving Maduro out of a summit like this. So fair enough. But it's also true that Lula received Maduro with a level of pageantry and enthusiasm that surpassed that of any other foreign leader who has come to Brazil so far in his government. And so, again, to me, that raises the question of, okay, why did he do this? And to me, it reveals this ideological sympathy that essentially, if he thinks that someone is on the same team ideologically, if he thinks that Maduro is on the left, then he's willing to forgive or ignore a lot of other sins.
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Mary Ford
I also read a piece of. I believe it was also in podcast form, where you interviewed the foreign minister of Brazil, and he shared a bit more about what Lula's grand strategy is. Did anything else come out of that interview that you think is worth sharing?
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Brian Winter
Yeah, I mean, I do think that there's a philosophy of Brazilian foreign policy that has traditionally been to try to be friends with everybody. And this was why, if you were to rewind the tape back to, say, January or February, I thought at the time that there might be some role for Brazil to play on the Ukraine question. You know, Brazil is the world's sixth biggest country. It has a tradition of peaceful relations with its neighbors. Lula is a figure of great historical importance, as well as a charisma that is renowned not only at home but abroad. I thought the idea of a country stepping in of Brazil's weight and with Lula's force of personality and saying, hey, Ukraine and Russia, shouldn't we at least start to think about what peace might look like? I thought there might be some role for that. But it was always going to be a very narrow path and a risky thing for Brazil to do for reasons that we've seen. And I believe that, unfortunately, in my view, when Lula made some of these comments that I already alluded to, particularly the one about Zelenskyy and Putin having equal responsibility for the war, I think that whatever small window there was for Brazil to be a meaningful mediator on this question, I think that window closed. And it also, as I've said, damaged Brazil's reputation in a lot of other places around the world. The people in Brasilia, whom I respect, have not reached that conclusion. It's clear that Lula and his main aide, Salsa Amoring, continue to go down this path and spend time, political capital, and resources traveling the world, trying to ensure that Brazil plays an important part in this question. And we'll see where it goes. But I don't have much hope right now.
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Mary Ford
I'm sort of shifting gears here because I also want to talk about Lula's paranoias that You've written about that. He and his allies seem to see some existential threats everywhere. And then you reach an interesting conclusion, which is that they're not entirely wrong. What are these threats that he's seeing, and how is that then affecting how he's leading?
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Brian Winter
Well, I'm reminded of the expression, you know, you're not paranoid if everybody's actually out to get you. And let's remember that just five months ago, Brazil had its own version of the January six riots at the Capitol that we had here in the United States. Even on the date, the Bolsonaro supporters were not that original. They did it on January 8th. And in some ways, it was worse than what happened here in the U.S. i mean, this was thousands of protesters who made their way into all three government buildings, the Supreme Court, the Congress, and the Presidential palace trashed the place with the goal of pulling, you know, sort of forcing the military out onto the streets, where these rioters believed that the military would then take their side and, quote, unquote, restore Bolsonaro to his rightful place. That's full air quotes, by the way. You know, they did not come particularly close to achieving their objective. But we have, again, similar to what we saw in the United States, where we learned just how precarious some of these things were during those days, there have been some revelations in Brazil that show that actually, you know, Brazilian democracy was in some danger, not just on January 8th, but in the months immediately beforehand where President Bolsonaro was talking about changing the entire electoral system and making threats both publicly and behind the scenes, about what he was prepared to do if those changes did not happen. And so if I know these things, Lula knows these things, and he understands that, for example, the military's rank and file is about 90% in favor of Bolsonaro. Even today, in a country like Brazil with a recent history of military intervention and politics, that matters. And so, you know, there's been a lot of questions about Lula's performance so far in his government, and people asking whether he is, you know, whether he's old or whether he has decided not to listen to his advisors anymore. And I, you know, you can make cases for many different explanations, but another explanation that I don't think gets enough attention is that Lula is at least somewhat scared that he knows the danger that he is in with a Congress and armed forces that are working against him, ready to spring at the first sign of either illegal or unethical behavior, or even a deviation from what they see as Brazil's proper path on the economy. Brazil is a country where two presidents. Since democracy returned in 1985, two presidents have been impeached and removed from office. A couple of others face the legitimate threat of impeachment proceedings, including Lula the first time around. And so there's always this precarious element to being a president of Brazil that I think Lula has front and center and is the explanation for at least some of his behavior.
- [22:19]
Podcast Host
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- [24:49]
Mary Ford
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- [24:50]
Brian Winter
I'm just gonna disconnect from the world and disassociate and just open up my phone and start scrolling and it's like a way of escaping. But then once you're done scrolling, your problems are still there.
- [25:01]
Podcast Host
Doom scrolling is something we all struggle with with on the latest episode of Mind if We Talk host and licensed therapist, he Su Jo talks with singer songwriter David Archuleta as he opens up about the emotional toll of doomscrolling and how he's working to break free from this cycle. When the world feels like too much, it's okay to take a step back. Join us for this episode of Mind if We Talk to hear real conversations and gain practical tools to help you cope with the things we all struggle with. Listen and subscribe to Mind if We Talk wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:34]
Mary Ford
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- [26:33]
Podcast Host
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- [26:35]
Mary Ford
Can I make my site softer?
- [26:37]
Brian Winter
Can I make my site firmer?
- [26:38]
Podcast Host
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- [27:06]
Mary Ford
There is something that I also wanted to mention which is that in the President's Palace, Lula has chosen not to repair some of the damages done by the insurrectionists and it's in an effort to display the visual damages and remind everyone of what happened. There are similar questions that have been asked in the United States. Should we do the same with the Capitol building? And I'm just wondering to get your thoughts on this, was that the right thing to do to keep these. Some of these. Some of the areas of the building in disrepair and remind the people of what happened that day.
- [27:41]
Brian Winter
I went inside the Presidential palace back in March, and I saw this painting by a Brazilian artist called that was stabbed in seven different places with some sort of knife by one of the Bolsonaro protesters on January 8th. And, you know, I had read about it and seen it on tv, but actually seeing it with my own eyes provoked a very strong emotional reaction. It showed to me the, frankly, the barbarism of some of the people who were there that day, the total disregard that they had for Brazil's institutions and for the rule of law. And, you know, look, taking this beyond Brazil a little bit, widening the lens, I mean, this has been. It's been a difficult decade for Latin America as a whole. Economies have been going sideways or down. Democracy has been backsliding in many countries. And, you know, for me, the biggest challenge. I say this as someone who has been watching Latin American politics for more than 20 years, who has seen these countries enjoy periods of success, real success, talking mainly about the 2000s with the growth of the middle class and democracies that were moving in the other direction, that were getting better. I know that progress is possible. I've seen it. And when it happens, it's usually because institutions and the rule of law are strong. And so, to me, anything that leaves a permanent monument, a permanent record of that day, and that shows us, in an emotional way, the cost of when these authoritarian groups move in, trying to use, you know, vandalism and violence as a way to impose their will after having lost an election. I think anything that can remind us of that and touch people in a different way, I think is. Is. I think it's worthwhile to leave that behind.
- [29:54]
Mary Ford
So let's turn to the final point that you made, and hopefully this is a bit more of a positive note, which is Lula and his efforts with the Amazon and tackling deforestation. It seems like he's going full steam ahead. Can you give us a sense of where that project is, what his goals have been so far, and what he's done?
- [30:18]
Brian Winter
Well, there's no doubt that Lula is better on environmental issues than Bolsonaro was. I mean, Bolsonaro's coalition included illegal agribusiness interests that wanted carte blanche to go into the Amazon, slash and burn and create cattle ranches and do illegal mining and engage in all kinds of other activities. Lula has a. A different view, a view that is more constructive, more in line with Sort of the global consensus on this issue. And there's been some progress on this, including falling rates of deforestation. But it's not, you know, it's not so black and white, first of all, because it's not just about Lula on this question. He can believe that deforestation is bad, but stopping deforestation in Brazil is very complicated, in part because, forgive me if this seems obvious, the Amazon is big. I mean, it is gigantic. And exerting the rule of law again, and effective control over that area is exceptionally difficult. More to the point, people in these regions that have seen the most deforestation over the last five to six years generally agreed with Bolsonaro. And we know this because in the 2022 election, the parts of the country that most enthusiastically voted for Bolsonaro were the parts of Brazil that saw the most deforestation. Which is to say, people there agreed with Bolsonaro's view that essentially cutting down the forest leads to progress. Now, there's all kinds of reasons why over the last 50 years of Brazilian history, that has been proven wrong again and again. We've repeatedly seen that progress does not come to deforested areas, or more to the point, whatever revenue comes from cattle ranching and soy farming tends to just fall into the pockets of a very few people, generally speaking. But again, this is a political question. People were seduced by Bolsonaro's argument. So back to the question of now, what happens with Lula? You know, unless he can get political buy in and cooperation from the people in these regions, it's going to be very difficult for him to turn this story around. It's important to point out that during Lula's first presidency, from 2003 to 2010, people believed that Amazon deforestation was an intractable problem. Under Lula's first government, deforestation rates fell by 70%. He proved the first time around that there is a way to push these numbers in the other direction that involves everything from increasing the number of police and environmental inspectors in these areas to the use of satellite technology and other techniques as well. But the bottom line is it's going to be hard for history to repeat itself because the political circumstances in Brazil have changed. The economy is not booming like it was during Lula's first term. And so he doesn't have these vast amounts of resources that he can pour into things like law and environmental enforcement. So I am somewhat hopeful, and the early returns have been encouraging. But there is a long way to go to get this really headed back in the positive direction that it was in Brazil over a long period of time.
- [33:53]
Mary Ford
Before we wrap up, I'm also curious if you can share with us your predictions for US Brazil relations. You mentioned quite a bit about Brazil's tactics right now and how it's trying to have greater influence in the world and sometimes even sidelining the United States or reprimanding the United States globally. But we do share a shared interest with Brazil in that both countries are trying to protect democracy and have those shared values. Will that be enough to safeguard the U.S. brazil relations? Or do you anticipate perhaps, that Brazil's efforts to ally with Russia and China more intimately to prioritize, perhaps his socialist views over democracy will cause maybe US Brazil relations to fray even more?
- [34:53]
Brian Winter
Look, I think Lula and Joe Biden have a lot in common, an eerie amount of things in common. They both won in, you know, fair elections that were protested by the losers they faced. Similar, I think, threats to democracy in Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, who were openly sharing ideas with each other and kind of working from the same playbook. And we saw this when Lula came to the White House back in February. I mean, there, there by all accounts, was a genuine connection on this issue of having survived a major challenge to democracy and come out successfully on the other side. To your point, there will always be shared interests between Brazil and the US on issues like climate and so on. But I would say that, you know, these things that Lula has done and said over the last several months have taken their toll in European capitals as well as in Washington. They have shown a government that is less committed to democracy, at least outside its borders. I don't question Lula's commitment to democracy inside of Brazil. I do fundamentally question his commitment to democracy outside of Brazil. And I think that's been a disappointment. Lula did more than welcome Nicolas Maduro. He threw out the red carpet. And he said that the only real problem that Venezuela faced was a narrative of authoritarianism, which is clearly not the case. I mean, this is a dictatorship that has been imprisoning and torturing its opponents for many years. That's not a narrative. That's a reality, as the Chilean president, also on the left, Gabriel Borich, rightly pointed out. So all these things have had their cost in Washington, not just in the Biden administration. But, you know, there's a community of people actually in both the Democratic and Republican parties who have always doubted Brazil's constructive role in the world and Lula's that of Lula's Workers Party as well. And I think the last couple of months have, have given ammunition to that crowd. So I expect a relationship that will continue to be constructive and cordial, but perhaps not as close as some people would have liked.
- [37:35]
Mary Ford
And I would assume that the United States has to tread lightly in this department because we also don't want to totally. This is not what you're suggesting, but we don't want to totally sideline Brazil. It's an important partner, just as India is, in thinking about responding to Russia and China and their growing influence in the world.
- [37:56]
Brian Winter
I think that there is a certain humility that has characterized the Biden foreign policy, including their foreign policy towards Latin America, and a recognition that the US Cannot and should not try to throw its weight around in the way that previous governments have tried to do. I mean, look, it's 2023, not 1983, which means in practice, that the US has to be understanding and can't try to bully other countries around the world into accepting their view. At the same time, the Biden government has clear values. And that's, I think that's where the disappointment has been in seeing that, you know, in the specific case of Venezuela as well as Russia, that, you know, the, the, the world that Lula would like to see has led him to cover his eyes and effectively not see, not prioritize democracy in the way that certainly people in Washington would like him to do.
- [39:03]
Mary Ford
So. Brian, let's also turn to a point that you made earlier about some of the polarization. How does that look like in Brazil right now? And seeing as a lot of institutions are in opposition of Lula, what is he doing to either rein them in or perhaps convince them that he is a good leader and that they can trust him?
- [39:28]
Brian Winter
Well, there have been so many strange parallels between Brazil and the United States over the last six years or so, and one of them is just, you know, not only the similarities between Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump and so many of the, you know, people from both sides who were talking to each other. Steve Bannon, notoriously, you know, had a lot of interest, very close ties with the Bolsonaro family. But another common thing has been this degree of polarization. It has at times looked like almost a 5050 country in the same way the US did. And the election of 2022 was a 5149 election. It was the closest election in Brazil since democracy returned in the 1980s. But, you know, there's, there's another story here, which is that Bolsonaro's rise reflected changes in Brazilian society over the last, really, the last 20 years. And the most obvious one is that Brazil has gone from being a mostly Catholic country for all of its modern history to something else where, you know, back in the 1980s, evangelical Christians accounted for about 7% of Brazil's population. Today, it's estimated to be about a third. And some people say that the evangelicals could become the majority as soon as the 30s. That is a huge transformation of a country in the span of really one lifetime. And it has resulted in the rise of a new kind of politics that is more socially conservative, in which you hear about some of these issues, like, you know, questions over gender, LGBT questions and so on, that were just not on, really on the radar of Brazilian politics as recently as 10 or 15 years ago. So that is now the Brazil that Lula is trying to govern. And I think it's an open question as to whether he understands just how much the country has changed over the last 20 years. Since he was president the first time, he has tried to have some dialogue with evangelical pastors, recognizing that, you know, what happens on Sunday and what's said inside of churches ends up really influencing the way that a lot of Brazilians feel about their politics. But he has struggled somewhat because, you know, even though Lula is a religious person, he is Catholic. So was Bolsonaro, by the way. But Bolsonaro, I guess you could say, despite being Catholic, was able to really win over the evangelical community. And it's not clear yet whether Lula is really able to speak their language. The only other thing I'd add is that it did feel to me when I was back there in Brazil earlier this year, that kind of running parallel to this polarization was a hunger for normalcy. Brazil under normal circumstances, in the Brazil that I first got to know 25 years ago, it's not usually a political place. There are other countries in Latin America, and I always think of Argentina, where if you turn on the television at 9 o' clock at night, most channels are going to be showing current affairs shows and people arguing with each other about politics. In Brazil, you turn on the TV that time of night, and you're usually going to see telenovelas and soccer matches. I'm exaggerating a bit, but there's an element of truth to that. And I heard from a lot of people once the election had passed, I heard several Brazilian friends and kind of random people who I came into contact with saying, yeah, I'm really tired of politics. And I just let Lula kind of do his thing and Some of the polling backs that up. I mean, it may only be, at least for now, only 25 to 30% of Brazilians in polls are saying that they, like, really strongly oppose the Lula government. So far, a lot of others are on the fence. There's about another third of society that says that they're neither in favor of nor against what Lula is doing. So we'll see if, out of that climate, Lula is able to kind of get the country not only economically back on track, but politically back to kind of where it's usually been, which is a country where, you know, people would rather focus on other things.
- [44:03]
Mary Ford
One thing I want to tease out in drawing the parallel between Brazil and the United States and talking about the increase of evangelical Christians in the country, I noticed that you didn't say anything about race. And I'm wondering if in Brazil there's a similar strand as there is in the United States of this resurgence of white supremacy or something close to that, and a racial divide when it comes to politics as well.
- [44:30]
Brian Winter
Look, race is a complicated subject in Brazil, as it is everywhere. And I always try to be very humble talking about this question as. As an American, where we have our. Certainly our own hierarchy, our own history, and our own way of looking at this. I would say that there are some similarities in Brazil to the, you know, the increased role of race in the public debate and in politics in recent years, a reexamination of our history. You know, blacks in the United States account for approximately 12% of the population. In Brazil, people who identify as either black or mixed race account for 52% of the population. So it's, you know, it's a very. It's obviously a very different equation there. You will still find Brazilians who insist to Americans and as well as to other Brazilians that Brazil does not have a racial problem, that discrimination in Brazil has historically happened because of class, not because of race, that there was never legalized segregation in Brazil, for example, in the way that there was in the United States. What I can tell you is that there has been, I think it's fair to say, an increased black consciousness in both social questions and political questions in Brazil in recent years, where people are really pushing back against that idea and saying, no, there is absolutely racism present in Brazil's society and its economy and its politics. And there's, you know, some politicians are speaking about that more openly than others. And I think it's still very much a debate that's. That's underway.
- [46:16]
Mary Ford
Brian Winter, thank you very much.
- [46:18]
Brian Winter
Thank you for having me.
- [46:23]
Mary Ford
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