The Lawfare Podcast: Lawfare Archive – How is Lula Doing? Release Date: August 9, 2025
Host: Mary Ford
Guest: Brian Winter, Editor in Chief of America's Quarterly

1. Introduction

In this archival episode, Mary Ford interviews Brian Winter to evaluate Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's performance approximately 150 days into his second term. The discussion revisits Winter's predictions from June 7, 2023, and assesses Lula's current standing on various fronts, including economic management, foreign policy, domestic challenges, and environmental initiatives.

2. Lula’s First 100 Days in Office

Mary Ford [01:29]: "This week, President Trump announced a new round of sweeping tariffs. Brazil and India were two of the most hard hit countries... For today's archive episode, I selected an episode from June 7, 2023... you shared your predictions on what Lula's first 100 days in office would look like. It's been about roughly 150 days since Lula took office, and I'm wondering what ended up coming to surface."

Brian Winter [03:08]: "Brazil is rarely boring. Lula... has managed to bring a degree of institutional calm that we really didn't see during the Bolsonaro administration."

3. Economic Policies and Response

Mary Ford [04:39]: "Let's start with the economy. What is happening in Brazil, and how is Lula responding?"

Brian Winter [04:47]: "If you talk to people in the business community in Brazil, they're pretty negative. Lula has re-emphasized the state's role in the economy in a way that the private sector doesn't generally like... Economists and others are currently ratcheting up their growth forecasts for Brazil for this year to about 1.7%, up from 1% just a month ago."

Summary: Lula's administration has taken a more state-centric approach to the economy, which has met with disapproval from the private sector. Despite high taxes and complex regulations, global demand for Brazil's commodities and signs of growth in agribusiness have led to optimistic economic forecasts, albeit modest.

4. Foreign Policy: Neutrality and Relations with Russia

Mary Ford [06:16]: "Brazil is also tackling some questions about its place in the world. Lula is adamant on keeping Brazil neutral, but in the process, he seems to be playing footsie with Russia, much to the US's chagrin. So what's motivating that?"

Brian Winter [06:44]: "There's a strategic motivation for Brazil... Brazilian foreign policy thinkers believe that a multipolar world is better for Brazil... At a personal level, Lula is determined to make his final chapter as president as positive as possible, including mediating peace in Ukraine... However, Lula's statements, such as saying 'Zelensky and Putin deserve easy, equal blame for their share in the war,' have been perceived as aligning more with Russian rhetoric [10:10]."

Notable Quote:
Brian Winter [10:10]: "Lula's comments... can be interpreted... akin to Russian rhetoric."

Summary: Lula advocates for a multipolar global order, seeking to reduce U.S. dominance and increase Brazil's influence. His attempts to mediate in the Ukraine conflict have been marred by statements that appear to side-step neutrality, drawing criticism from Western allies.

5. Engagement with Venezuela and Latin American Politics

Mary Ford [13:19]: "Last week Lula invited Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to Brazil... Is this an effort to unite Latin American countries under a single bloc?"

Brian Winter [13:47]: "Lula prioritizes ideological alignment over democratic concerns, welcoming Maduro despite his authoritarian regime... This reflects Lula's worldview that being on the same leftist ideological side takes precedence over other political considerations."

Summary: Lula's invitation to Maduro signals a willingness to engage with left-leaning leaders regardless of their democratic credentials, aiming to foster regional solidarity but raising questions about his commitment to democratic principles.

6. Domestic Challenges: Polarization and Paranoias

Mary Ford [18:31]: "Lula and his allies seem to see some existential threats everywhere. What are these threats, and how is that affecting his leadership?"

Brian Winter [18:56]: "Following Bolsonaro's January 8th insurrection, Lula is wary of threats from a Congress and military still sympathetic to Bolsonaro... This paranoia stems from Brazil's history of presidential impeachments and the recent Capitol-like riots, leading Lula to adopt a more cautious and defensive stance in governance [22:18]."

Notable Quote:
Brian Winter [22:18]: "You're not paranoid if everybody's actually out to get you."

Summary: Lula faces significant internal threats from Bolsonaro loyalists and a polarized society. Memories of past political instability and recent violent attempts to undermine democracy have made Lula cautious, impacting his governance style and policy decisions.

7. Environmental Policies and the Amazon

Mary Ford [29:53]: "Lula and his efforts with the Amazon and tackling deforestation seem to be progressing. What has he achieved so far?"

Brian Winter [30:17]: "Lula has made strides in reducing deforestation compared to Bolsonaro's administration by increasing law enforcement and utilizing satellite technology. However, challenges remain due to the vastness of the Amazon and the lack of political support from regions benefiting from deforestation [30:17]."

Summary: Lula has improved Brazil's environmental policies, significantly reducing deforestation rates through stringent enforcement and technology. Nevertheless, sustaining these efforts is challenging without broader regional cooperation and economic incentives.

8. US-Brazil Relations Under Lula

Mary Ford [33:53]: "What are your predictions for US-Brazil relations given Lula's recent actions?"

Brian Winter [34:52]: "While Lula and President Biden share common democratic values, Lula's recent actions have strained relations, particularly his engagement with authoritarian figures like Maduro and his critical stance towards the US. The relationship will likely remain constructive but not as close as desired [34:52]."

Notable Quote:
Brian Winter [37:55]: "The Biden government has clear values... Lula's approach to Venezuela and Russia has disappointed Washington."

Summary: Despite shared democratic interests, Lula's foreign policy choices have introduced tensions in US-Brazil relations. While cooperation on issues like climate change remains, mutual trust has been undermined by Lula's perceived favoritism towards other global powers.

9. Race and Politics in Brazil

Mary Ford [44:02]: "Is there a racial divide in Brazilian politics similar to the US?"

Brian Winter [44:30]: "Race is a complex and evolving issue in Brazil. With over 50% of the population identifying as black or mixed race, there is increasing black consciousness and activism. However, debates about the significance of race versus class continue, and racism remains a contentious topic [44:30]."

Summary: Brazil is experiencing a heightened awareness of racial issues, paralleling some aspects of the United States. The majority black and mixed-race population is pushing back against longstanding narratives that prioritize class over race, leading to ongoing political and social debates.

10. Conclusion

Brian Winter provides a nuanced assessment of Lula's presidency, highlighting both achievements and challenges. While Lula has brought institutional calm and made progress on economic and environmental fronts, his foreign policy maneuvers and internal polarization pose significant hurdles. The interplay between Brazil's domestic issues and its position on the global stage will continue to shape the nation's trajectory under Lula's leadership.

Final Notable Quote:
Brian Winter [46:15]: "Progress is possible when institutions and the rule of law are strong."

Key Takeaways

• Economic Management: Lula's state-centric policies have mixed receptions, with modest economic growth forecasts buoyed by commodity demand.

• Foreign Policy: Lula's push for a multipolar world and attempts at neutrality in conflicts like Ukraine have led to strained relations with Western allies.

• Regional Engagement: Welcoming leaders like Maduro demonstrates ideological solidarity but questions Lula's commitment to democratic norms.

• Domestic Challenges: High polarization and historical threats to democracy necessitate a cautious governance approach.

• Environmental Initiatives: Progress in reducing deforestation is significant but requires sustained effort and regional cooperation.

• US-Brazil Relations: Shared democratic values coexist with emerging tensions due to divergent foreign policy strategies.

• Race and Politics: Growing recognition and activism around racial issues reflect an evolving political landscape in Brazil.

This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the key discussions from the Lawfare Podcast episode "Lawfare Archive: How is Lula Doing?" ensuring clarity and depth for those who have not listened to the original episode.