Podcast Summary: The Lawfare Podcast

Episode: Lawfare Archive - Joel Braunold on What Donald Trump’s Return Might Mean for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Date: January 25, 2026 (Archive discussion originally from December 6, 2024)
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guest: Joel Braunold, Managing Director, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace

Main Theme

A deep-dive into the possible ramifications of Donald Trump’s return to the White House for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, analyzing administration appointments, policy signals, regional implications, and the shifting calculus for all stakeholders—from Israel and the Palestinian Authority to U.S. allies in the region.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Uncertainties and Personalization of U.S. Policy under Trump 2.0

(05:43–14:06)

• Policy Ambiguity: There is significant conjecture about Trump’s second-term approach; outsiders claiming to know for certain “are wrong” (05:55), and the Trump team’s intentions remain a “black box.”
• Personalization: Trump views himself as the “dealmaker in chief,” with foreign policy often run based on his personality and relationships (06:17).
  • “President Trump puts himself as the dealmaker in chief for America and he does personalize many of America’s foreign policy to his personality.” — Joel Braunold (06:30)
• Envoy Appointments: Early notable selections include Steve Witkoff (Trump’s “best friend”) as Mideast envoy and Massad Bullas (in-law) as special advisor for the Middle East, signaling highly centralized and personalized policymaking (07:01–07:56).
• Use of “Peace” Language: Trump’s team notably foregrounds “peace”—unlike the Biden administration, which Braunold characterizes as having “banned peace almost as a dirty word” (08:16).
• Policy Contradictions: Cabinet choices signal conflicting intentions: some appointments tilt hardline skeptic on Palestinian statehood, yet the rhetoric in appointments nods toward dealmaking and possibly restarting the peace process (09:15–12:51).

2. Changes in Key Personnel & The Role of Kushner

(14:06–17:15)

• Notable Absences: Figures like David Friedman are missing from official Trump roles (11:50); Jared Kushner remains outside but likely influential.
• White House Dominance: Middle East policymaking is heavily “run out of the White House” via personal envoys/advisors, with little role for the State Department or NSC (15:34).

3. Trump-Era Legacies & Policy Continuities

(17:15–32:49)

• Jerusalem, Golan Heights, and Settlements: Biden kept many Trump-era shifts intact; these have become the “new American norm” (17:30–18:00).
• Peace to Prosperity Plan (Deal of the Century):
  • “It breached basically every one of the Palestinian red lines, but it preserved the concept that… they would have a state.” — Joel Braunold (21:20)
  • The Trump plan—once boycotted by Palestinians and also rejected by the Israeli religious right—may now serve as a “starting point” but with the changed political landscape post-October 7. (19:24–25:57)
  • Palestinians now engaging Trump post-election, including direct communication between Abbas and Trump (22:32).
  • U.S. leverage is seen as broader than just aid; Trump may use loans, executive orders, and pressure on Arab states to extract concessions from both Israel and Palestinians (25:23–27:59).
  • “With Harris, it’s like going into a casino and knowing you’ll lose. With Trump, you can either win a house or lose a house.” — Quoting Jonathan Schanzer via Joel Braunold (27:38)

4. The Abraham Accords & Regional Dynamics

(32:49–41:43)

• Durability: Accords with UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have outlasted the Gaza War and been more robust than older peace deals (34:30).
  • “The normalization has survived the Gaza war which is not for nothing… something worked there that hasn’t worked elsewhere.” — Joel Braunold (34:32)
• Unfulfilled Promises: Signatory nations expect Trump to “deliver” U.S. commitments under the Abraham Accords.
• Saudis’ Calculus: Saudi interest in normalization and security guarantees stems more from a lack of confidence in U.S. defense commitment (post-Houthi attacks) than with any particular U.S. party or president.
• Iran and Maximum Pressure: Trump’s team is poised to return to “making Iran broke again” with aggressive sanctions (39:50–41:45).

5. The Northern Fronts: Lebanon & Syria

(41:44–54:13)

• Strategic Victories & Deterrence: Trump likely advocates minimal U.S. sacrifices; expects allies to shoulder burdens in Lebanon/Syria (43:25–44:15).
• Israeli Freedom of Action: Anticipates Trump will grant Israel a free hand against regional foes but little U.S. appetite for direct military involvement (48:23–49:15).
  • “Do whatever the hell you want. I don’t care. Knock yourself out. Just don’t rely on us.” — Joel Braunold (48:54)

6. Gaza, the West Bank, and the Limits of U.S. Leverage

(54:13–68:47)

• Gaza:
  • No clear Israeli disposition plan; Trump administration unlikely to push humanitarian aid or restrict weapons (55:14–56:02).
  • “I can’t imagine pressure on weapons, a desire to do international humanitarian aid. I just… don’t see it.” — Joel Braunold (55:15)
  • Resolution of Gaza tied to broader regional bargains (Abraham Accords extension), with U.S. pressing Arabs to foot the bill if a minimal political solution is found (56:20).
  • “The Israelis are on the hook for it. Because if the Americans are constantly trying to say, ‘We’ve got to solve this’… If the Americans are like, ‘Do what the hell you want, just get it off my TV screens and don’t bother me with this,’ it puts the onus on the Israelis.” — Joel Braunold (57:50)
• West Bank:
  • Potential for Annexation: Lifting of U.S. handbrakes may embolden Israeli hardliners but political and societal constraints remain (49:48–52:20).
  • Israeli domestic divisions on the PA, two-state solution, and annexation are reaching a climax (“historic opportunity to collapse the Palestinian Authority”; 53:10).
  • Trump’s plan envisioned a Palestinian state, and it could be hard to shift him off that should the PA “play ball,” e.g., by changing prisoner payment policies (62:20).
  • Limits of Evangelical Support: U.S. religious right might support Israeli control but not forced Palestinian expulsion (61:27–62:24).
  • “The concept of transfer, voluntary immigration… is not something that appeals to evangelicals… It’s far more of a noblesse oblige.” — Joel Braunold (61:50–62:10)

7. International Law, Domestic Fallout, and Strategic Resets

(49:15–54:13; 61:30–68:47)

• International Law: Trump’s team will likely push hard against the ICC, UN, and overwhelming pro-Palestinian activity in the U.S., reframing the conflict as an America-first issue (63:45–67:15).
• Strategic Realignment:
  • Trump could give Israel “emotive wins” (UN, ICC, crackdown on protests) while quietly shifting the strategic foundation (no more 10-year grant MOUs, preference for loans, new leverage points; 64:30–67:08).
  • “He could steal a march on Netanyahu quite easily… while simultaneously… demolishing some of the strategic underpinnings that Israel has benefited from.” — Joel Braunold (67:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Conjecture & Opacity:

  • “Everything I’m about to say is conjecture because no one knows. And I think people who deterministically tell you they know exactly what the second Trump administration term will be vis-à-vis the Israeli Palestinian conflict is wrong because I don’t think we know.” — Joel Braunold (05:50)

• On the Trump Doctrine:

  • “If President Trump wishes to deal through personal relationships, they will adapt in order to make that work.” — Joel Braunold (06:40)

• On the Abraham Accords:

  • “It is a remarkable event that they have continued [post-Gaza War] … something worked there that hasn’t worked elsewhere. — Joel Braunold (34:32)

• On U.S. Leverage & Aid:

  • “If he says there are no more free meals, he’s like, everyone goes to forgivable loans. I didn’t see the Republican conference pushing back against him when it comes to an MoU to Israel.” — Joel Braunold (26:17)

• On Israeli Domestic Constraints:

  • “…even if the Trump administration’s like, go forward and settle, 70% of the country doesn’t want you to do that. It’s cold, it’s winter now, lots of people need food and aid. Are you really going to take on the entire costs of that yourself? Because the Trump administration isn’t going to be paying for it….” — Joel Braunold (03:49, reprised at 49:55 and 54:55)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Policy Ambiguity & Personalization: 05:43–14:06
• Kushner’s Role & White House Centralization: 14:06–17:15
• Trump Legacies (Jerusalem, Golan, Peace Plan): 17:15–32:49
• Abraham Accords & Regional Alignment: 32:49–41:43
• Lebanon & Syria/Northern Fronts: 41:44–54:13
• Gaza, West Bank, & U.S. Leverage: 54:13–61:27
• Annexation Debates & Evangelical Dynamics: 61:27–68:47

Conclusion

The episode underscores profound uncertainty about the Trump administration’s future role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, emphasizing both the risk and opportunity of highly personalized foreign policy. The competing impulses—between hardline, ideological appointees and Trump’s self-conception as a “historic dealmaker”—could yield either dramatic breakthroughs or destabilizing shocks. The stakes for all involved have never been higher, with U.S. strategic, regional, and domestic dynamics in unprecedented flux.