The Lawfare Podcast

Episode Title: Lawfare Archive: Zelensky’s Victory Plan, with Anastasiia Lapatina and Eric Ciaramella
Host: Benjamin Wittes (Editor in Chief of Lawfare)
Guests: Anastasiia (Nastya) Lapatina (Lawfare Kyiv Fellow), Eric Ciaramella (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Date: November 28, 2025 (original episode October 18, 2024)

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode analyzes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s publicly presented “Victory Plan” for the ongoing war with Russia. The hosts break down the plan’s contents, its political implications, and reactions from both Ukrainian society and international supporters, especially the U.S., in the context of Western political shifts and upcoming elections.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Overview of Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan

[05:00 – 08:36]

• Zelenskyy finally presented his “Victory Plan” directly to the Ukrainian public in a dramatic speech to Ukraine’s parliament.
• The plan had previously been discussed with Western allies, but details were unknown within Ukraine until this speech.
• The plan consists of five main points and three secret annexes.

Key Plan Points:

1. Immediate invitation to NATO for Ukraine
   • Ukraine insists on short-term NATO membership, but the U.S. ambassador to NATO quickly signaled that prospects for immediate accession are unrealistic.
2. Increased and unrestricted military aid
   • Requests more long-range weapons, removal of restrictions on their use (including inside Russia), and joint missile/drone defense operations (especially with border NATO states like Poland).
   • Calls for enhanced western intelligence-sharing and ongoing operations inside Russia to “bring the war home to Russians.”
3. Non-nuclear deterrence package hosted in Ukraine
   • Possibly implies NATO bases or advanced defensive assets on Ukrainian soil, ambiguous in public details.
4. Stronger sanctions on Russia and economic agreements for resource exploitation
   • Special agreements proposed with allies for joint investment/use of Ukrainian mineral resources (uranium, titanium, lithium, etc.).
5. Ukrainian troops potentially replacing American troops in Europe after the war
   • Aimed at burden-sharing, possibly targeted to appeal to critics of U.S. overseas deployments.

Quote:
“He gave a dramatic speech, he talked about these points. He said that this plan is basically now on the table of our partners and it's now up to our allies to fulfill the plan and bring victory to Ukraine.” (Anastasiia Lapatina, 07:58)

2. Secret Annexes – What’s Inside?

[08:36 – 10:36]

• Speculation on the content of three classified annexes: likely technical elaborations on military/intelligence cooperation, not entirely new objectives.
• Unlikely that Zelenskyy’s real plan is hidden entirely in secret documents.

Quote:
“It’s hard to envision that there would be some huge category of other activities that aren’t covered by these five points that would be totally secret.” (Eric Ciaramella, 09:42)

3. What’s New and What’s Not in the Plan?

[10:36 – 14:55]

• Some elements (NATO, military aid requests) are longstanding Ukrainian positions, but there’s “a renewed sense of urgency.”
• Several aspects—such as asking NATO-border states for joint operations, focus on resource exploitation, and non-nuclear deterrence packages—are more novel or now elevated priorities.
• "Ukrainians replacing Americans in Europe” is seen as an overture to U.S. political debates about burden-sharing.

Quote:
“I was actually a bit surprised by how much new stuff I saw in the plan...The fact that you, Zelensky, is bringing [natural resources] to such a high level of a talking point...that’s also pretty new.” (Anastasiia Lapatina, 12:14)

4. Political Messaging and Target Audiences

[14:14 – 17:28]

• The resource and troop replacement proposals appear designed for U.S. (specifically Trump’s camp) who are skeptical of “values” arguments but may respond to tangible, transactional benefits.
• The plan’s vagueness about the definition of “victory” (return to 1991 borders?) leaves room for negotiation and flexibility, possibly strategically deliberate.

Quote:
“It’s deliberately ambiguous. Are we talking about still military liberation of all territory up to the 91 borders or something short of that...? It’s deliberately vague.” (Eric Ciaramella, 17:45)

5. Nuts-and-Bolts: The U.S., Allies, and What’s Achievable

[17:31 – 23:23]

• Most crucial demands are NATO invitation, more/fewer-restrictions weapons, and a robust long-term deterrence model.
• The U.S. response has been noncommittal; no immediate rejection, but no endorsement. Conversations ongoing at working levels regarding specifics.
• Coordination with U.S. and its allies is complicated by shifting domestic politics (impending election).

Quote:
“It sparked a series of conversations at kind of lower levels...There are conversations ongoing about what points can be elaborated and adopted, what points need further refinement, what points are not really somewhere the American administration wants to go.” (Eric Ciaramella, 22:17)

6. Ukrainian Domestic Reaction and Criticism

[25:04 – 30:38]

• Public and political reaction within Ukraine is muted; the plan is mostly a compilation of existing goals.
• Critics argue the plan lacks concrete strategies or reliance on domestic policy; accuses Zelenskyy of shifting burden to international partners.
• Concerns about corruption, efficacy, and especially the ongoing issue of military mobilization.

Quote:
“The plan isn’t really enough of a plan. It’s more of, like, a bunch of goals and dreams and aspirations, but it’s not really a plan of action...” (Anastasiia Lapatina, 26:30)

7. Military Realities: Manpower, Mobilization, and Deep Strike Limitations

[28:01 – 32:22]

• Lapatina notes the plan’s leaning on long-range strikes instead of ground offensives, seemingly as a way to sidestep domestic mobilization debates.
• Ciaramella and Wittes are skeptical that “deep strikes” into Russia will end the war, warning Russia’s manpower and territory cannot be neutralized by missiles alone; losing ground in Donetsk is mainly a manpower, not munitions, issue.

Quote:
“There is no way that Ukraine is going to deep strike its way out of this war. It’s losing ground in Donetsk oblast pretty much by the day. And that is primarily a manpower issue.” (Eric Ciaramella, 30:46)

8. Communication Difficulties Between Ukraine and Western Allies

[33:08 – 40:45]

• Rising frustration in Ukraine over perceived abandonment and lack of transparency by international partners.
• Ukrainians feel U.S. communications are insufficient, sometimes condescending. American officials face material constraints and shifting priorities, which are not well communicated or understood in Kyiv.
• Planning and interoperability gaps persist, with Ukraine urged to better articulate its multi-year military needs.

Quote:
“Whoever is at the podium explaining this during a press conference isn't explaining it as eloquently as you do, Eric…It takes months of analysts and people like Eric to explain it on podcasts like this.” (Anastasiia Lapatina, 35:58)

9. Freezing of Diplomatic Momentum Before U.S. Election

[41:19 – 42:55]

• Major strategic decisions are on hold until after the U.S. presidential election; supplemental budgets and future military aid will hinge on the outcome.
• Both Harris and Trump scenarios considered: Harris seen as “predictable” and likely to maintain Biden’s course; Trump’s intentions are worrying but some believe his unpredictability could open opportunities for Ukraine.

Quote:
“There is a, you know, I think the general understanding is that, you know, a President Harris would be more predictably supportive of Ukraine and would probably continue a lot of what Biden has done...On Trump, it seemed like there were kind of two minds in Kyiv...” (Eric Ciaramella, 42:16)

10. Ukrainian Attitudes Toward U.S. Political Outcomes

[44:34 – 45:42]

• Previous hopes some in Ukraine placed in Trump’s potential for “chaotic” boldness have faded as he’s leaned openly pro-Putin.
• Many Ukrainians feel stuck between unattractive options for U.S. leadership, uncertain what the outcome will signal for Ukraine’s support.

Quote:
“His statements on Ukraine and Russia have gone like progressively worse and worse over the past few months...People are, I feel like, kind of finding themselves in almost a lose-lose situation.” (Anastasiia Lapatina, 45:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|-----------------------------|-------| | 07:58 | Anastasiia Lapatina | "He gave a dramatic speech...and it's now up to our allies to fulfill the plan and bring victory to Ukraine." | | 09:42 | Eric Ciaramella | "It's hard to envision that there would be some huge category of other activities that aren't covered by these five points that would be totally secret." | | 12:14 | Anastasiia Lapatina | "I was actually a bit surprised by how much new stuff I saw in the plan..." | | 17:45 | Eric Ciaramella | "It's deliberately ambiguous. Are we talking about still military liberation of all territory up to the 91 borders or something short of that...? It's deliberately vague." | | 22:17 | Eric Ciaramella | "It sparked a series of conversations at kind of lower levels...what points can be elaborated and adopted, what points need further refinement..." | | 26:30 | Anastasiia Lapatina | "The plan isn't really enough of a plan. It's more of, like, a bunch of goals and dreams and aspirations, but it's not really a plan of action..."| | 30:46 | Eric Ciaramella | "There is no way that Ukraine is going to deep strike its way out of this war. It's losing ground in Donetsk oblast pretty much by the day. And that is primarily a manpower issue." | | 35:58 | Anastasiia Lapatina | "Whoever is at the podium explaining this during a press conference isn't explaining it as eloquently as you do, Eric, and in this great of a detail." | | 42:16 | Eric Ciaramella | "There is a...general understanding that...a President Harris would be more predictably supportive of Ukraine...On Trump...there were kind of two minds in Kyiv..." | | 45:39 | Anastasiia Lapatina | "His statements on Ukraine and Russia...have gone progressively worse...People are...finding themselves in almost a lose-lose situation." |

Segment Timestamps

• [05:00] – Break-down of the Victory Plan’s five public points
• [10:36] – What’s new and what’s not in the plan (Nastya’s analysis)
• [14:14] – Discussion of political messaging and likely Western reception
• [17:31] – Parsing real (vs. symbolic) demands (“nuts and bolts”)
• [25:04] – Ukrainian domestic reaction, opposition criticisms
• [28:01] – Mobilization and manpower: the military realities of the plan
• [33:08] – Ukrainian frustration and communication challenges with allies
• [41:19] – U.S. election freezes major decisions; possible outcomes
• [44:34] – Ukrainian attitudes toward U.S. elections, pro/anti-Trump sentiment

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a frank, analytical tone with moments of humor and candor (e.g., Wittes welcoming baby noises; jokes about whom Zelenskyy’s plan is “for”). The speakers balance policy detail with accessible explanations for listeners both familiar with and new to the subject.

Summary

This in-depth Lawfare Podcast episode lays out the contents, context, and implications of Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan”. The hosts dissect the feasibility of the plan’s points—especially in terms of Ukraine’s capabilities, military manpower constraints, and Western political will. While there’s some innovation in tone and messaging, the episode finds Ukraine remains heavily dependent on uncertain foreign support. Both domestic criticisms and transatlantic communication issues complicate implementation, and major developments are frozen until U.S. political uncertainties are resolved. The discussion gives listeners a grounded sense of the evolving diplomatic and military realities behind Zelenskyy’s proposition for victory.