Lawfare Daily: All Things Ukrainian Energy with Anastasiia Lapatina

Podcast: The Lawfare Podcast
Host: Benjamin Wittes (Lawfare Institute)
Guest: Anastasiia Lapatina (Lawfare Kyiv Fellow)
Date: November 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode provides a comprehensive and timely exploration of Ukraine’s energy sector amid war, focusing on three main areas:

• The Russian campaign to cripple Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter sets in
• Ukraine's own strikes against Russian energy assets
• The eruption of a major corruption scandal at the heart of Ukraine’s energy sector, with potential implications for President Zelenskyy and his administration.

Anastasiia Lapatina brings direct, street-level insight from Kyiv, even as she records during a power outage. The discussion is candid, critical, and richly detailed—ideal for listeners seeking to understand both the technical and political challenges Ukraine faces regarding energy security and governance during war.

1. Living through Energy Attacks in Kyiv

[03:11 – 08:13]

• Power Outage Reality:
  • Lapatina records during a real-time outage in Kyiv caused by Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
  • "I'm very lucky to have a large portable battery that's big and expensive, but is very, very useful because it can power a lot of stuff in your apartment." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 03:41)
• Centralized Heating Complications:
  • Ukraine has a centralized post-Soviet heating system; when electricity fails, heat (especially in smaller apartments or for supplemental electric heaters) can also be lost.
  • "More than half of all Ukrainian households rely on the centralized heating, where local authorities, the government, decides when to turn it on or off." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 05:10)
  • The system’s interconnectedness means attacks in other regions can create rolling blackouts or long power cuts in Kyiv.
• Living Conditions:
  • "It's actually quite cold...it's 2 degrees Celsius, which is almost freezing." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 04:33)
  • "It's cold to not have heat." (Benjamin Wittes, 04:50)

2. Russia’s Energy War: Strategies and Impacts

[08:25 – 15:13]

• Annual “Plunge Into Darkness” Campaign:
  • Russia systematically targets Ukraine’s energy grid at the start of each winter, aiming to break civilian morale and pressure government to settle for unfavorable terms.
  • "Every fall, they begin this campaign trying to, as every headline, it feels like, have said, plunge Ukraine into cold and darkness before winter." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 09:19)
  • Notably, "plunge" is the go-to verb in media coverage.
• New Russian Tactics in 2025:
  • Improved drones—faster, harder to intercept, deadlier.
  • Methodical targeting of Ukraine’s most vulnerable energy points, especially in eastern and central regions (Donbas, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), with an apparent strategy of splitting the power system and creating unmanageable demand.
  • "They're very methodically trying to attack the most vulnerable areas in Ukraine...their strategy is to sort of split Ukraine in half." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 12:23)
• Ukrainian Resilience:
  • Despite Russian hopes, such attacks historically have steeled rather than broken Ukrainian resolve.
  • Blackouts (cascading national failures) have been rare and short-lived due to swift repairs.

3. Ukraine’s Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure

[15:13 – 21:51]

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Campaign:
  • Ukraine is running its own campaign using domestically-produced long-range drones and missiles, targeting Russian energy assets like refineries and export terminals.
  • "Ukraine launched more than 60 attacks into Russia between August and October." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 15:54)
• Impact and Challenges:
  • Russia maintains high repair capacity despite sanctions; the campaign’s effectiveness depends on sustained pressure and accumulated costs of repeated repairs.
  • Damage is incremental (rarely total destruction), but may lead to fuel shortages and rationing within Russia; some regions have banned or limited diesel/gasoline exports.
  • "There have already been reported shortages of fuel in Russia in many areas in Russia, and some areas even introduced sort of rationing at the gas stations." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 20:08)
• US Policy Shift:
  • Under the new Trump administration, the US is allegedly sharing intelligence to help Ukraine target Russian assets, a reversal from previous Biden-era caution.
  • "Supposedly, US has been sharing crucial intelligence for targeting, including for evasion of Russian air defenses, which is a big move for the Trump administration." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 17:44)
• Notable Insight:
  • Wittes: "One problem that Ukraine has had over the course of the war is that Moscow elites are relatively shielded ... [these] attacks [might] affect people who Putin actually has to keep happy." (Benjamin Wittes, 19:41)

4. Ukraine’s Massive Domestic Energy Corruption Scandal

[21:51 – 31:34]

• The Scandal in Brief:
  • On Nov 10, NABU (Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Bureau) announces it uncovered a criminal scheme at the state-owned nuclear energy firm Enerhoatom.
  • Contractors paid 10-15% kickbacks to win and retain roles; leaders include close Zelenskyy allies such as Timur Mindich (business partner, co-owner of Zelenskyy’s TV production studio).
  • "The company’s contractors were forced to pay 10-15% of the contract value in kickbacks to this criminal, in the words of NABU, organization." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 25:03)
• Political Fallout:
  • Implicates:
    • Timur Mindich (businessman, Zelenskyy’s friend and ex-business partner)
    • Ministers of Justice and Energy (Halushenko, fired hours before the show)
    • Another former Deputy Prime Minister—a close Zelenskyy friend
  • Audio clips published from wiretaps; while ministers are not charged, their close links create "political responsibility."
  • Lapatina: "Regardless of whether she was charged or not, she still has political responsibility over the fact that it happened on her watch." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 29:16)
• Degree of Presidential Involvement:
  • Only direct tape mention is of Zelenskyy supposedly making a call at Mindich’s request, but conversation context is unclear.

5. Zelenskyy’s Role: Incompetence, Tolerance, or Complicity?

[31:50 – 41:53]

• Historical Context & Power Grab Attempts:
  • In July 2025, Zelenskyy moved to put NABU & SAPO under direct presidential control—sparking mass protests.
    • This is now seen as possibly aimed at stifling Operation Midas before it broke.
    • "It was perceived by everyone as an obvious power grab and an obvious effort by Zelenskyy to shield his friends from prosecution." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 37:13)
• Three Interpretative Scenarios:
  • Zelenskyy is directly corrupt and involved in the scheme
  • Zelenskyy is incompetent, oblivious to (or unable to control) the scoundrels around him
  • Zelenskyy knowingly tolerates corruption in the energy sector for wartime expedience, focusing reforms on defense procurement
• Notable Quote:
  • "Nothing directly points to him ... the only direct mention of Zelenskyy in this whole scheme is that there is an episode in the tapes where you can hear President Zelenskyy allegedly calling the energy Minister ... but you don't know ... what the conversation was actually about." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 35:08)
  • "He may not be directly engaged in it. He may just be aware of it and choosing not to do anything about it, which, again, certainly is a huge problem." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 41:05)

6. Societal and Political Repercussions

[41:53 – 47:16]

• Public Reaction:
  • Outrage and a sense of “new low”; comparisons to the 2013 Yanukovych era.
    • "Everyone is feeling sort of a new low. Right. Like, everyone is perceiving this as like, okay, things were bad, but this is as bad as it has ever gotten in people's recent memory." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 43:10)
  • Others point to institutional progress: For the first time, it's a government agency (not just journalists) exposing corruption at the top, reflecting Ukraine’s maturing anti-corruption reforms.
  • "Nothing that we learned from these revelations ... is anything deeply shocking about how the Ukrainian political system works ... what was new, however, is the fact that this scheme was uncovered ... by the Anti Corruption Bureau, which is a real institution with real detectives ..." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 44:01)

7. What Happens Next?

[47:16 – 52:37]

• Escalating Crisis:
  • Mindich has fled Ukraine (reportedly to Israel).
  • Both Ministers of Justice and Energy fired; government promises audits and management “reboots” for state-owned energy companies.
  • Reports suggest Zelenskyy may fire key Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak—potentially a pivotal event for Ukraine’s governance.
    • "There has been growing reporting that Zelenskyy is considering firing Yermak to sort of show that he's willing to overhaul the system ... that would be truly revolutionary and truly transformational." (Anastasiia Lapatina, 49:13)
• Yermak’s Alleged Role:
  • Rumors swirl he may be the figure codenamed “Ali Baba” in tapes—a key player in the scheme. Official confirmation awaited.

8. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the Russian strategy:
  • "They're hoping that the Ukrainian society becomes more open to a deal that may be highly unfavorable ... because of the strikes and because of the energy situation. It hasn't worked in the past ... it only hardened Ukraine's resolve."
    (Anastasiia Lapatina, 09:59)
• On Zelenskyy’s leadership conundrum:
  • "Is he part of all of these corruption schemes, in which case he is of course guilty? Or is he just so incompetent at his job and so completely oblivious about what's happening right under his nose ... ?"
    (Anastasiia Lapatina, 37:33 and again at 16:16)
• On Ukraine’s anti-corruption progress:
  • "The very fact that an actual government law enforcement agency uncovered this and was able to investigate the closest people to the President, that's an amazing achievement ... that’s not something that could even be conceivable like six, seven, ten years ago."
    (Anastasiia Lapatina, 45:33)

9. Closing Thoughts & Further Reading

• For follow-up:
  • Lapatina has detailed Lawfare articles on both the Russian energy attacks and the Ukrainian domestic scandal—recommended resources for more depth.

Summary Table: Key Segments and Timestamps

| Segment | Start | End | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | Living through Kyiv outages, reality of centralized heating | 03:11 | 08:13 | | Russian winter campaign against Ukrainian energy | 08:25 | 15:13 | | Ukraine’s deep strike campaign on Russian refineries | 15:13 | 21:51 | | Explaining the Ukrainian energy corruption scandal (Operation Midas) | 21:51 | 31:34 | | Zelenskyy’s role: tolerated, oblivious, or complicit? | 31:50 | 41:53 | | Societal and political implications, historic moment for reform | 41:53 | 47:16 | | Next steps: ministerial fallout, Yermak speculation | 47:16 | 52:37 |

For listeners/readers:
This episode is an essential, timely account of Ukraine’s wartime energy struggles, offering a rare, on-the-ground perspective and deep political analysis of both external threats and internal crises shaping Ukraine’s future.