The Lawfare Podcast: Iran Protests and Internet Shutdown

Date: February 6, 2026

Main Theme & Episode Purpose

This episode of The Lawfare Podcast centers on the recent wave of protests in Iran, the government’s unprecedentedly violent crackdown—including a prolonged and near-total internet shutdown—and the implications for both Iranian society and US foreign policy. Hosted by Ariane Tabatabai (Lawfare Public Service Fellow), with guests Nate Swanson (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project) and Iria Puyosa (Senior Research Fellow, Democracy & Tech Initiative), the discussion addresses how Iran’s regime has changed its repressive measures, the technical reality and consequences of internet blackouts, comparative global examples, and possible US responses.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Three Phases of Iran’s Protests

(02:43 – 06:07)

• Origins & Expansion:

  • Protests ignited December 28 over economic grievances (like currency devaluation and soaring food prices), with bazaar merchants at the forefront.
  • Quickly spread to all 31 provinces, shifting from economic to deep-rooted anti-regime demands.
  • “You had a lot of, you know, ‘death to Khamenei’ chants... They don’t want regime reform anymore, they want regime change.”
    — Nate Swanson (03:29)

• Escalation:

  • Notable intervention from external actors: protest calls by Reza Pahlavi and statements from then-President Trump spurred more fervor.
  • Numbers unclear, but much larger and more widespread than previous cycles.

• Violent Crackdown & Aftermath:

  • Death toll estimates: 10,000–30,000—surpassing Tiananmen Square.
    • For comparison: 550 (Mahsa Amini protests), 1500 (2017–2019), fewer than 100 (2009 Green Movement), 4 (1999 student protests).
  • "You didn’t have these body bags strewn across the street [before]... This is unprecedented in terms of crackdowns.”
    — Nate Swanson (05:10)
  • Protest movements now largely suppressed; people mostly confined to sporadic, non-public acts of dissent due to fear.

2. Machinery of Repression

(06:07 – 08:50)

• Security Forces:

  • Crackdown is a multi-pronged effort involving:
    • Basij militias (para-police)
    • IRGC (military)
    • LEF (police)
  • Estimates: Over one million personnel involved.

• Who Orders the Crackdown?

  • Supreme Leader seen as ultimate decision-maker, with Supreme National Security Council’s Ali Larijani as public face.
  • Initial statements recognized protesters’ economic grievances; narrative rapidly shifted to “foreign-backed coup” rhetoric to justify escalation.
  • "Very clearly, the Supreme Leader...was behind this decision."
    — Nate Swanson (08:26)

3. Anatomy & Impact of the Internet Shutdown

(08:50 – 18:49)

• How the Shutdown Worked

  • Slowing: Initially, connectivity was throttled to prevent uploading/protesting coordination.
  • Cut-Off: Progressed to outright disabling of internet and even phone/SMS services nationwide.
  • Regime control over all telecommunications infrastructure made this feasible.

• Consequences

  • Severely limited external reporting and internal coordination.
  • “People living in different regions... can’t communicate. They don’t know what is happening in other areas... More difficult to coordinate protests or even to protect themselves.”
    — Iria Puyosa (11:01)

• Comparative Perspective

  • Shutdowns not unique to Iran: similar incidents in India, Ethiopia, Belarus, Venezuela, Uganda, Cuba.
  • What’s new? In Iran, the shutdown is not temporary—regime signals no intention to restore full service, aiming for a “national intranet.”
  • “The plan is to have a sort of intranet for Iranian people... This is what is considered unprecedented.”
    — Iria Puyosa (15:22)

• Feasibility of “National Intranet”

  • Despite regulatory and infrastructure control, Iran lacks China’s economic might and domestic tech alternatives.
  • Cultural, economic, and social ties to the outside world make such insularity unprecedented and difficult to sustain.

4. Current State and Domestic Outlook

(18:49 – 24:28)

• “Powder Keg” Dynamic

  • Swanson notes that, while regime control is temporarily restored, underlying economic and political discontent is greater than ever.
  • “This is just a powder keg waiting to blow again.”
    — Nate Swanson (20:36)

• Regime Legitimacy at a Low Point

  • Notable dissidents (e.g., Green Movement leader Mousavi) say government has lost legitimacy.
  • "Whatever legitimacy that was there in a social contract between Iran and its people is gone now."
    — Nate Swanson (23:22)

• New Willingness to Use and Admit to Violence

  • Leadership is openly owning mass killings—another departure from even previous moments of violence.

5. Government Two-Tier Internet System

(28:44 – 31:54)

• Elite Access Only
  • Select regime elites (~16,000 people) receive “whitelisted” SIM cards for global internet, while the public is entirely blocked.
  • “That idea that you can keep connectivity for an elite and the rest... is kind of novel.”
    — Iria Puyosa (30:41)
  • Technically viable but socially unstable.

6. US & Allied Policy Options

(31:54 – 44:49)

• Challenges & Dilemmas

  • Trump’s initial threats appeared to target a domestic audience.
  • “There is not a readily available military option to support the protest[ers]... I have yet to hear a compelling case for how that tangibly helps.”
    — Nate Swanson (34:40)
  • Previous approach was to keep human rights/nuclear issues separate in diplomacy; now, the scale of repression “can’t be siloed” anymore.

• Possible Actions

  • Internet: Efforts to increase access—satellite and technical workarounds—are critical, but have limited impact.
  • Diplomatic Pressure (“naming and shaming”): Multilateral efforts, such as kicking Iran off international commissions, can carry symbolic and some practical weight.
  • “You just don’t see killings like this really anywhere. It has to be a core part of what we’re thinking and what we care about.”
    — Nate Swanson (38:16)
  • Sanctions & Conditional Diplomacy: If any major sanctions relief is contemplated, it should be explicitly tied to changes in internal repression and foreign policy, not just nuclear compliance.

• Limitations

  • Multilateral/diplomatic efforts have so far been limited to statements of concern (e.g., Freedom Online Coalition), which don’t directly help people on the ground.
  • Satellite solutions (e.g., Starlink) are being actively jammed by Iran and present security risks to users.
  • “In Iran, the Iranian government is actively jamming the signal from Starlink... It can be criminalized to have that device... It really is not a solution.”
    — Iria Puyosa (46:13)

7. What’s Next?

(48:27 – 52:14)

• The regime’s current trajectory is “not sustainable”—without fundamental change, crisis will recur.
• “It’s basically in a death spiral... How fast that goes is really hard to predict. Maybe it’s like a couple of weeks, maybe it’s like 10 years.”
  — Nate Swanson (49:05)
• Major future inflection point will be the eventual death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, whose longevity keeps the system’s succession question open and precarious.
• For the US: Keep pressure, define clear expectations, provide tools for opposition, but ultimately recognize real change must be Iranian-driven.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Crackdown’s Scale:

  “These numbers... surpass the Tiananmen Square massacre.”
  — Ariane Tabatabai (02:14)

• On Open Admission of Repression:

  "The Supreme Leader... came out and said, yeah, we killed thousands of people. I mean, he didn’t say it quite in so many words, but he might as well have.”
  — Ariane Tabatabai (22:45)

• On Internet Access Disparity:

  “A group of people... who are part of the elite in the Iranian government... have been provided SIM cards... to bypass the current blockage.”
  — Iria Puyosa (30:41)

• On the Limits of Satellite Solutions:

  “It is really not a solution... It presents security risk, is easily disrupted using the jamming.”
  — Iria Puyosa (47:07)

• On the Death Spiral of the Regime:

  “This can’t continue long term... It’s basically in a death spiral, right? How fast that goes is really hard to predict. You know, maybe it’s like a couple of weeks, maybe it’s like 10 years.”
  — Nate Swanson (49:05)

Timeline of Discussion Highlights & Timestamps

• [02:43] – Nate Swanson details three phases of Iran’s protests, context, and escalation.
• [06:32] – Security apparatus and political decisions behind the crackdown.
• [09:19] – Iria Puyosa explains the technical nature and societal consequences of the internet blackout.
• [12:28] – Comparative global examples and why Iran’s move is especially unprecedented.
• [18:49] – Nate Swanson on current dynamics: regime control, underlying discontent, and loss of legitimacy.
• [28:44] – Iria Puyosa explains how the regime retains internet access for elites while cutting off the public.
• [33:30] – Swanson analyzes US policy options and limitations of military intervention.
• [41:34] – Discussion of multilateral diplomacy, sanctions, and Starlink’s (in)effectiveness.
• [48:42] – Swanson speculates on regime longevity, succession, and US strategic posture going forward.

Tone and Atmosphere

The conversation is sober, detailed, and policy-oriented, blending technical description with firsthand expertise. The guests are deeply informed and candid, and the tone grows more urgent and bleak as the scale of repression and paucity of policy options become clear.

Summary Takeaway

The Iranian regime has entered a new, deeply repressive phase, using both mass violence and unprecedented digital censorship to suppress dissent. While these tools have temporarily restored regime control, underlying grievances remain severe and unresolved—leaving the possibility of future unrest high and the regime’s legitimacy at a historic low. For the US and allies, options are constrained; expressions of support and technical/diplomatic pressure have so far failed to alter the regime’s course, and the podcast’s experts agree that lasting change can only be driven by developments inside Iran itself.