Summary of "Lawfare Daily: Resisting Democratic Backsliding"

Release Date: May 8, 2025
Podcast: The Lawfare Podcast
Host: Quinta Juarez
Guest: Laura Gamboa, Assistant Professor of Democracy and Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame

1. Introduction

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, host Quinta Juarez engages in a deep conversation with Laura Gamboa, a political scientist specializing in democratic backsliding and opposition movements. Their discussion centers on the current state of U.S. democracy, drawing comparisons with other countries that have faced similar challenges.

2. Diagnosis of U.S. Democracy

Laura Gamboa begins by expressing significant concern over the health of U.S. democracy.

[03:03] "Very unhealthy. Democratic backsliding... a regime that has elections that somehow the opposition systematically cannot win."

She highlights the erosion of democratic institutions, such as the government using state apparatus to target dissenting citizens, censoring freedom of speech, and issuing executive orders against law firms and universities. Gamboa warns that:

[04:44] "All my alarms are up. I am really, truly very concerned."

3. Civil Society's Response to Backsliding

Quinta asks Gamboa to evaluate the pushback against democratic erosion in the U.S.

Gamboa observes that initially, Americans were less attuned to these threats compared to regions like Latin America. However, recent actions by Democratic leaders indicate a growing urgency:

[05:08] "In my research, unlike coups, the erosion of democracy leaves oppositions with resources to fight back."

She emphasizes the importance of not hesitating to use available resources, arguing against a passive approach:

[05:08] "Waiting is the worst possible strategy because those elections might not be free and fair."

4. Comparative Perspectives: Lessons from Other Countries

The conversation shifts to the value of comparing the U.S. situation with other nations experiencing democratic backsliding, particularly in Latin America.

Gamboa asserts that while each country's experience is unique, valuable lessons can be learned from regions like Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Africa. These lessons include the importance of early protection of democratic institutions and leveraging political systems effectively.

[12:20] "The United States does not need to invent the wheel. There are lessons... to identify and react to these kind of threats."

5. Specific Case Studies: Venezuela vs. Colombia vs. Guatemala vs. Hungary

Gamboa contrasts Venezuela and Colombia to illustrate different opposition strategies:

• Venezuela: The opposition's radical strategies, including coups and strikes, backfired, leading to increased authoritarian control by Chávez.

  [15:11] "In Venezuela, opposition strategies like coups and strikes led to Chávez purging the armed forces and consolidating power."

• Colombia: A more measured approach using institutional strategies such as litigation and electioneering proved effective in mitigating some power grabs.

  [23:44] "In Colombia, the opposition used institutional strategies to delay and limit executive power."

• Guatemala: Highlighted as a successful example where coordinated opposition and international pressure prevented authoritarian consolidation.

  [23:46] "Guatemala's opposition mobilized effectively, with international pressure aiding in the peaceful transfer of power."

• Hungary: Serves as a cautionary tale where opposition efforts were insufficient against Viktor Orban's consolidation of power.

  [52:30] "Hungary defied my theory; the opposition did everything right, yet backsliding still progressed."

6. Role of Courts and Institutions

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the judiciary's role in resisting backsliding. Gamboa emphasizes the necessity of protecting courts as a bulwark against authoritarianism.

[40:14] "Protecting the courts is essential... the courts are where a lot of these battles are being fought."

She cites Poland's successful defense of its judiciary against attempts at forced retirement, underscoring the power of institutional resistance.

[43:18] "In Poland, crowds protected the judiciary, showcasing the importance of civic engagement in safeguarding institutions."

7. Challenges and Opportunities in the U.S. Context

Gamboa discusses the unique challenges the U.S. faces due to its size and federal structure. While decentralization offers multiple entry points for opposition, it also presents risks, especially concerning local election administration vulnerabilities.

[47:45] "The decentralized system provides opportunities but also easy targets in particular states."

She warns of potential relentless attacks on local election bodies, which could undermine electoral integrity.

[50:38] "Because elections are run locally, they are easy to target, especially in smaller states."

8. The Decentralized U.S. System: Advantages and Risks

The conversation delves into how the U.S.'s vast geography and fragmented political landscape impact the ability to organize resistance.

Gamboa notes that while decentralization allows for localized resistance, it complicates nationwide coordination necessary to counteract authoritarian moves effectively.

[50:57] "The U.S. electoral system feels very ad hoc, making it harder to mount a unified defense against backsliding."

9. Future Prospects and Closing Thoughts

In concluding the discussion, Gamboa offers a mixed outlook. While she remains optimistic about the resources and institutional supports available to the opposition, she underscores the unprecedented speed and technological aspects of backsliding in the U.S.

[56:15] "The pace at which democratic erosion has happened in the US is incredibly, incredibly concerning."

She calls for a coordinated effort between institutional strategies and social movements to effectively safeguard democracy.

[56:15] "Institutional strategies need to work together with social movements to stop democratic erosion."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Laura Gamboa: "Very unhealthy. Democratic backsliding... a regime that has elections that somehow the opposition systematically cannot win." [03:03]

• Laura Gamboa: "Waiting is the worst possible strategy because those elections might not be free and fair." [05:08]

• Laura Gamboa: "Protecting the courts is essential... the courts are where a lot of these battles are being fought." [40:14]

• Laura Gamboa: "In Venezuela, opposition strategies like coups and strikes led to Chávez purging the armed forces and consolidating power." [15:11]

• Laura Gamboa: "The pace at which democratic erosion has happened in the US is incredibly, incredibly concerning." [56:15]

Conclusion

This episode of The Lawfare Podcast provides a comprehensive examination of democratic backsliding in the United States, enriched by comparative insights from Latin America and Europe. Laura Gamboa's expertise underscores the urgency of coordinated institutional and civil society efforts to resist authoritarian tendencies, emphasizing that the health of U.S. democracy is at a critical juncture.

For more insights and discussions on national security, law, and policy, visit Lawfare Blog.