Summary of The Lawfare Podcast Episode: "Lawfare Daily: The New Syrian Government and Its Problems"

Episode Information:

• Title: Lawfare Daily: The New Syrian Government and Its Problems
• Host/Author: The Lawfare Institute
• Release Date: March 19, 2025

The Lawfare Podcast delves into the complexities surrounding the newly established Syrian government following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Hosted by Daniel Byman, the episode features an in-depth discussion with Middle Eastern Studies Professor Steve Heideman from Smith College. The conversation navigates through the political transition in Syria, the challenges faced by the interim government, the roles of external actors like Turkey and Israel, and the critical stance of the United States in shaping Syria's future.

1. Introduction to the New Syrian Government

Steve Heideman provides an overview of the political landscape in Syria post-Assad regime. He emphasizes the unexpected rapidity of the regime's collapse on December 8 and the swift movements towards a political transition.

“We have the political framework for a transition in place. We have the security framework for a transition in place.”
(02:13 - 02:32)

Key Developments:

• Ahmed El Shara's Ascension: Leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, now acting as interim president.
• Political Framework: Agreement with armed factions, convened assemblies for transitional principles, and approval of an interim constitution.
• Security Framework: Establishment of a National Security Council and agreements with Kurdish forces in the northeast.

2. Concentration of Power and Authoritarian Concerns

While outward progress appears substantial, Heideman raises alarms about the concentration of power in President El Shara's hands, echoing authoritarian traits.

“While there’s been a lot of discussion of minority rights and tolerance and freedom and participation and accountability, what we’re seeing… leads us to be a bit wary about where the country is going.”
(06:00 - 06:10)

Concerns Highlighted:

• Centralized Authority: El Shara holds presidential and military command.
• Control Over Institutions: Significant influence over parliament and judiciary.
• Islamist Attributes: The transition reflects the ideological leanings of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, raising questions about future governance and social policies.

3. Comparing Syria to Turkey Under Erdogan

When asked about potential authoritarian models, Heideman draws parallels between Syria’s new government and Turkey under President Erdogan.

“The closest model that comes to mind really, is the way Turkey has evolved under President Erdogan… super empowered executive… surveillance and control of media…”
(08:22 - 09:51)

Key Similarities:

• Empowered executive branch with control over other government sectors.
• Intolerance of dissent and close surveillance of media.

Differences Noted:

• Ideological Commitment: El Shara’s government may adopt a more restrictive Islamic vision compared to Erdogan’s more economically liberal approach.

4. Recent Violence and Interim Government's Control

The episode covers the tragic confrontations that erupted following an attack by Assad loyalists against the interim government’s forces, resulting in over 1,000 fatalities.

“Episodes like this could happen again… return of Iranian intervention in some form which Israel would view as a significant threat.”
(09:51 - 10:13)

Analysis of the Conflict:

• Assad Loyalists' Attack: Approximately 4,000 former regime soldiers engaged in violence.
• Interim Government’s Response: Deployment of security forces to quell the uprising.
• Civilian Casualties: Significant loss of civilian lives, highlighting the government's limited control over armed factions.
• Implications: Demonstrates the fragility of the interim government's authority and the potential for recurring violence.

5. The Shara-Kurdish Agreement: Details and Implications

A pivotal moment in Syria’s transition was the agreement between the interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Mazlum Abdi.

“It acknowledges Kurds as full and equal citizens of Syria… removing any incentive that Turkey might have had to intervene militarily against the SDF.”
(20:45 - 25:43)

Key Points of the Agreement:

• Citizenship and Political Participation: Recognition of Kurds as equal citizens with rights to participate fully in Syrian politics.
• Integration of SDF Fighters: Although details remain unclear, the agreement aims to incorporate SDF members into a unified Syrian security sector.
• Turkey’s Influence: By stabilizing the relationship with the SDF, the agreement alleviates Turkey’s concerns over the PKK extension in Syria, reducing the likelihood of Turkish military intervention.
• US Involvement: US military advisement played a role, especially concerning the withdrawal of US forces as per the Trump administration's commitments.

Outstanding Issues:

• Autonomy for Northeast Syria: The agreement lacks clarity on the extent of self-governance for Kurdish regions.
• Integration Processes: Detailed mechanisms for integrating SDF fighters into the national military remain unresolved.

6. Turkey’s Role in Syria’s Political Transition

Heideman elaborates on Turkey’s strategic interests and its significant influence over Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction.

“Turkey has really moved very quickly to consolidate its position as really the preeminent regional actor with an interest in shaping Syria's political transition.”
(26:01 - 28:07)

Turkey’s Objectives:

• Regional Dominance: Aspires to lead Syria’s reconstruction efforts, leveraging its long border and pivotal position in northern Syria.
• Countering Kurdish Influence: Views the SDF as a proxy linked to the PKK, which has been a longstanding adversary.
• Military Interventions: Repeatedly intervened to prevent Kurdish consolidation, sponsoring various armed factions as proxies.

7. Israel’s Military Interventions and Strategic Interests

The podcast addresses Israel's active military involvement in Syria and its strategic calculations regarding the new government.

“Israel's strategy in Syria has been interesting and somewhat troubling… leads to the instability of Syria, which… has implications that may work very much to Israel's disadvantage.”
(28:25 - 32:59)

Israel’s Actions:

• Military Occupation: Secured significant territories in southern Syria post-Assad.
• Targeted Strikes: Degraded Assad regime’s military capabilities through hundreds of attacks.
• Community Outreach: Engaging with the Syrian Druze minority to form potential alliances.

Strategic Assumptions:

• Weak Syria Equals Security: Israel believes that a fragmented Syria diminishes Iranian influence and reduces security threats.
• Concerns Over Iranian Presence: A destabilized Syria could pave the way for increased Iranian intervention, posing a direct threat to Israeli security.

Internal Israeli Debate:

• Opposing Views: While current policies favor a weakened Syria, voices like former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert advocate for engaging with the new Syrian government to foster stability and improve bilateral relations.

8. The United States’ Role: Sanctions and Economic Recovery

The discussion shifts to the critical role of the United States in Syria’s future, particularly regarding economic sanctions and support for the interim government.

“The economic crisis that Syria is experiencing as perhaps the most significant threat to the progress of Syria's political transition.”
(33:37 - 36:22)

US Policy Under the Trump Administration:

• Sanction Stalemate: Reluctance to lift or modify existing sanctions, many of which were initially targeted at the Assad regime.
• Economic Implications: Continued sanctions hinder economic recovery, fueling public discontent and undermining political stability.
• Support for New Government: While acknowledging the interim government's anti-terrorism stance, the US has not sufficiently eased economic pressures to facilitate tangible improvements for Syrian citizens.

Recommendations by Heideman:

• Lift or Modify Sanctions: To enable economic recovery and stabilize the political transition.
• Comprehensive Engagement: Broader US support could enhance the legitimacy and effectiveness of the new Syrian government, preventing the resurgence of conflict.

9. Conclusions and Future Outlook

Professor Steve Heideman encapsulates the precarious state of Syria’s transition, balancing cautious optimism with significant concerns about authoritarianism, external influences, and economic instability. The episode underscores the intricate web of regional and international actors shaping Syria’s path forward and the pivotal role of economic policies in determining the success of the political transition.

“The inability of the interim government to support improvement in Syria's economy is increasingly going to become a target of popular grievance and popular anger.”
(36:22 - 36:32)

Final Takeaways:

• Fragile Transition: Despite structural frameworks, the concentration of power and limited control over armed factions present ongoing threats.
• External Pressures: Turkey and Israel’s strategic maneuvers, along with the US’s economic policies, will significantly influence Syria’s trajectory.
• Economic Recovery as a Cornerstone: Addressing economic challenges is essential for political stability and the legitimacy of the new government.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• “We have the political framework for a transition in place. We have the security framework for a transition in place.”
  (02:13)

• “While there’s been a lot of discussion of minority rights and tolerance and freedom and participation and accountability, what we’re seeing… leads us to be a bit wary about where the country is going.”
  (06:10)

• “The closest model that comes to mind really, is the way Turkey has evolved under President Erdogan… super empowered executive…”
  (08:22)

• “Episodes like this could happen again… return of Iranian intervention in some form which Israel would view as a significant threat.”
  (10:13)

• “It acknowledges Kurds as full and equal citizens of Syria… removing any incentive that Turkey might have had to intervene militarily against the SDF.”
  (20:45)

• “Is Saudi's strategy in Syria has been interesting and somewhat troubling… implications that may work very much to Israel's disadvantage.”
  (28:25)

• “The economic crisis that Syria is experiencing as perhaps the most significant threat to the progress of Syria's political transition.”
  (33:37)

• “The inability of the interim government to support improvement in Syria's economy is increasingly going to become a target of popular grievance and popular anger.”
  (36:22)

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the podcast episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the current state of Syria’s political transition, the interplay of regional and international influences, and the pressing issues that could determine Syria’s future stability.