The Lawfare Podcast: The U.S. Foreign Service at a ‘Breaking Point,’ with John Dinkelman

Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Tyler McBrien (Lawfare Institute)
Guest: John Dinkelman (President, American Foreign Service Association – AFSA)

Episode Overview

This episode examines the existential crisis currently facing the U.S. Foreign Service. Tyler McBrien interviews John Dinkelman, President of the American Foreign Service Association, about the recently published AFSA report, "At the Breaking Point: The State of the U.S. Foreign Service in 2025." The conversation covers troubling findings about morale, resources, firings, and the politicization of the Foreign Service, painting a picture of an institution weakened by policy changes and administrative neglect. Dinkelman offers firsthand insights from an extensive career as a diplomat and union leader and weighs in on what’s required to restore the Foreign Service’s strength and integrity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Genesis and Scope of the AFSA Report

• Background:
  The government declined to run its usual workplace survey in 2025; AFSA undertook its own.
  Quote:

  “No one was going to speak the truth that power needed to hear. And so we jumped into that breach.” – John Dinkelman (02:36)

• Survey Methodology:

  • Surveyed over 6,000 AFSA members (about 85% of active Foreign Service)
  • Over 2,000 responses—statistically significant and highly representative.
  • Covered current, not former, Foreign Service members.

2. Findings of the Report: A Workforce in Crisis

• Unprecedented Unhappiness and Anxiety:

  • 86% report their ability to do their jobs has been “inhibited over the past eight months.”
  • 78% report budget/resource reductions.
  • 75% say impacts have directly hurt their work.
  • 98% say morale has suffered.
    Quote:

  “I don’t think you can get 98% of people to agree that the sky is blue, much less that the situation is dire.” – John Dinkelman (05:34)

• Deeper Ramifications:

  • Beyond unhappiness: risk of losing candid, honest input (“speaking truth to power”)
  • Growing fear of “adverse ramifications, retribution, recrimination or retaliation” for honest dissent (01:04, 07:34)
  • “People are going to start worrying more about themselves than they are about the service to the country that they’ve sworn to do.” (07:34)

• Illustrative Anecdote:

  • Diplomats being abruptly fired, even while on leave, without warning—a new, fear-inducing practice (09:41).
    Quote:

  “Just yesterday, I received an email from an employee who was informed that he had been fired on that day while back in the United States on leave, visiting his family at Christmas...” (09:41)

3. The Public and Institutional Dangers

• Foreign Service as a Canary in the Coal Mine:
  Dinkelman parallels the crisis in the Foreign Service with potential future threats to other merit-based systems, like the military.
  Quote:

  “The Foreign Service is a canary in the coal mine for other rank-in-person systems in the U.S. Government, namely the U.S. Military.” (01:38, 23:31)

• Erosion of Meritocracy and Safeguards:

  • Longstanding rules for reductions-in-force, designed to protect merit and prevent politicization, have been “thrown out the window.”
  • Firings now targeting groups instead of lower performers based on evaluations.
    Quote:

  “That undermined the confidence... that meritocracy would prevail, and that if they did a good job, they would be rewarded or at least not punished accordingly. That went out the window on July 11 and has led to the crisis of confidence which we have.” (13:56)

4. Changing Profile and Outlook of the Foreign Service

• Political Loyalists Over Professionals?

  • If the crisis continues, Dinkelman warns of a corrupted, politicized Foreign Service filled with loyalists from the party in power rather than career experts.
  • “It will erode the institutional understanding and the expertise that we take decades to build up.” (24:58)

• Recruitment and Retention Crisis:

  • “Nearly one in three officers surveyed are considering leaving the Foreign Service.” (24:16)
  • Worries about deterring new talent:

  “Are you going to consider a profession that is undergoing such tumultuous adversity at this time?” (24:58)

  Brain Drain:

  • “Good people... are going to international organizations, going into the private sector, and they are done with it because we have eroded the confidence and goodwill with that workforce. And it will take a generation, if ever, to rebuild that confidence.” (26:30)

5. AFSA’s Response and Evolving Role

• From Quiet Negotiations to Public Advocacy:

  • Traditionally, AFSA worked “behind the scenes.” Now, cut off from accessing the State Department, AFSA must speak publicly and to the media.
    Quote:

  “I can’t even get into the State Department anymore and they don’t even recognize that I exist. So unfortunately, AFSA for its part, has to take more public of a stance...” (29:05)

  • Dinkelman’s own journey: From 37 years as a career FSO to leading AFSA during crisis.
    Quote:

  “I've seen what can go wrong, and I want to make sure it doesn’t go wrong. And unfortunately, things are going wrong.” (11:11)

6. Legal Challenges, Oversight, and the Path Forward

• Legal Remedies:

  • Litigation is ongoing regarding recent firings and procedural changes, but “successes, not yet.” (23:31)

• What Can Be Done and By Whom?

  • Primary hope is for Congress to exercise robust oversight.
  • Failing that, Dinkelman and AFSA will continue public advocacy.
    Quote:

  “In the end, we rely on external actors to make sure that our branches of government are acting within the guard rails they have been given.” (32:15)

• Final Message—A Call to Action:

  • Commitment to AFSA’s role as a truth-teller.
  • Urgency: “It is not too late to save the ship of state from the perils that are on our course. It will require the meeting of many right thinking individuals...” (33:15)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the risks of undermining the Foreign Service:

  "When you weaken the Foreign Service, you weaken America. And that message needs to be brought home."
  – John Dinkelman (06:39)

• On morale:

  "I don’t think you can get 98% of people to agree that the sky is blue, much less that the situation is dire."
  – John Dinkelman (05:34)

• On politicization:

  “We will see a politicized Foreign Service with individuals being brought in by whichever party has the administration at the time... It will erode the institutional understanding and the expertise that we take decades to build up.”
  – John Dinkelman (24:58)

• On AFSA’s new role:

  "Lamentably, my job has become much more outward facing than any of my predecessors. I would hope that someday this could return..."
  – John Dinkelman (30:45)

• On the need for oversight:

  “We look to Congress to exercise its oversight authority to make sure that they support what is being done to our foreign affairs complex.”
  – John Dinkelman (32:15)

• On resilience:

  “AFSA will never lie to our members. We will always be a source of truth and a reliable repository of institutional memory... The winds may blow, but are we are shuttered tight and we are ready for this fight going forward.”
  – John Dinkelman (33:15)

Section Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment / Theme | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:28 | Intro to episode and guest | | 02:04 | Why AFSA did its own survey—federal government opted out | | 04:23 | Methodology and response rate | | 05:34 | Survey findings: morale, resources, performance threats | | 07:03 | Real-world implications of low morale and fear | | 09:41 | Personal story: abrupt firings, loss of job security | | 11:11 | Dinkelman’s career and move into AFSA leadership | | 13:56 | Loss of civil service guardrails, meritocracy | | 23:31 | Comparison to military “canary in the coal mine”; legal remedies | | 24:16 | One in three consider leaving; future threats | | 26:30 | Brain drain and recruitment crisis | | 29:05 | How AFSA’s public and confrontational stance is a break from norm | | 32:15 | Congress’s oversight role; AFSA’s call to action | | 33:15 | Dinkelman’s final message—truth, resilience, urgency |

Conclusion

The episode paints a sobering picture of a Foreign Service facing unprecedented institutional peril, internal fear, and loss of professional safeguards. John Dinkelman’s testimony underscores both the deep-rooted problems and the abiding commitment of career diplomats to the Constitution and the nation. AFSA is transitioning from quiet advocacy to urgent public alarm, while Dinkelman holds on to cautious faith that with oversight and collective action, the Foreign Service can be preserved and rebuilt.

Summary composed in the language, tone, and direct attribution used by Lawfare Podcast speakers. All timestamps refer to MM:SS in the episode.