The Lawfare Podcast

Episode: Ukraine’s Asymmetric Blueprint in the Black Sea
Date: December 16, 2025
Host: Katyrina Schmatyna, Eurasia Fellow at Lawfare Institute
Guest: Kat Buchatsky, Director of Analytics at Snake Island Institute

Overview

This episode explores how Ukraine has leveraged innovation—especially unmanned systems (USVs) and rapid manufacturing adaptation—to reshape naval dynamics in the Black Sea. Drawing on insights from Ukraine’s recent transformation of its naval strategy, the discussion delves into technological advancements, Russian counter-adaptations, global strategic lessons, and the geopolitical intricacies of supply chains and alliances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine’s Naval Transformation and the Black Sea Context

• Depleted Starting Point

  • At the onset of the full-scale invasion (early 2022), Ukraine’s navy was “not completely functional as a traditional navy” (03:02). Post-Soviet division left Ukraine with far fewer warships and capabilities than Russia. The 2014 occupation of Crimea further devastated Ukraine’s naval infrastructure, causing a “significant hit in terms of how operational it could be.”
  • Ukraine scuttled its own flagship to avoid its capture by Russian forces.

• Strategic Necessity

  • Ukraine faced simultaneous challenges: Russian strikes from the sea, economic strangulation of Odesa’s trade, and the threat of amphibious landings (03:02-08:32).
  • “To say that we were starting on a back foot in 2022 is an understatement.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (03:02)

2. Rise of Unmanned Systems and Modularity

• Ukraine’s New Naval Arsenal

  • In absence of traditional assets, Ukraine built a navy entirely around USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels), notably the Magura and the Sea Baby—operated by different branches of Ukraine’s security services (07:40).
  • Modularity allows Ukraine to adapt these systems for diverse functions: launching FPV drones, carrying missiles, or acting as explosives (kamikaze USVs).

• Memorable Quote

  • “We’ve essentially built this modular maritime capability where you can kind of put anything onto those that will serve your purpose... The state of our navy today is completely different.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (07:40)

3. Breakthrough Operations

• Sevastopol Port Raid (Late 2022) (08:54)

  • An unprecedented USV incursion demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to infiltrate and strike one of the most heavily defended Russian ports.
  • Showcased “Ukrainian USV swarm tactics” for the first significant time in history.

• USVs as Anti-Air Assets

  • Ukraine modified Magura USVs with Sidewinder missiles to down Russian fighter jets and helicopters, marking a global first in naval warfare (09:48).
  • “That’s historic. It’s pretty much the first time in history that an unmanned sea vessel has threatened a fighter jet and has successfully downed a fighter jet.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (10:11)

4. Economics and Asymmetry in Warfare

• Cost-Effectiveness Ratio
  • Estimated at $1 spent by Ukraine for every $50 of Russian target value damaged (12:20).
  • “Wars now are very much wars of economies of scale... The only way we can remain viable is to find something that is competitive with those systems at a much cheaper price.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (12:38)
  • Unmanned systems allow a less wealthy Ukraine to remain highly competitive and resilient.

5. Russian Maritime Dilemmas

• Constraints

  • Russia’s "meat grinder" infantry tactics do not translate to the sea; their finite fleet precludes the expendability seen on land (16:16).
  • With every large ship on the water at risk, Russia withdrew most vessels to safer, distant ports.

• Memorable Summary:

  • “They have an unlimited amount of soldiers... but they do have a limited number of ships. Quite literally, they are not going to be able to replenish their fleet fast enough.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (16:16)

6. The Black Sea as a Laboratory for Future Naval Warfare

• Who’s Watching and Learning?

  • Countries with maritime borders facing Russian or similar threats (Baltics, Nordics, China, Taiwan) are closely observing Ukraine’s innovations (19:38).
  • The key lessons are not just in deploying USVs, but in developing means to counter them.

• Global Implications

  • “Any country that is thinking about future maritime operations should be looking at the Black Sea... countering USVs is potentially an even bigger lesson.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (19:38)

7. Supply Chains, Localization, and China’s Role

• European and U.S. Support

  • Ukraine receives aid from partners, but “naval warfare has just been a very uniquely Ukrainian project” (29:49).
  • Localization of drone manufacturing supply chains is a hot topic—Ukraine is focused on internalizing key components (motors, batteries), while European dialogue is still mostly at a high level (30:46).

• China’s Complex Position

  • China previously supplied crucial components, with recent export restrictions creating uncertainty (34:44).
  • Russia often gets priority access to Chinese suppliers, causing Ukrainian manufacturers delays and forcing workarounds.
  • “We’re also just walking on eggshells... we understand that that faucet can be turned off at any point.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (34:44)

8. Turkey and the Black Sea Straits

• Impact on the Fleet
  • Turkey’s closure of the Bosphorus Straits limited Russia’s ability to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet, aiding Ukraine (38:36).
  • While this also blocks allied naval support, Schmatyna argues it benefits Ukraine more.

9. Lessons and U.S. Relevance

• Supply Chain R&D is Key

  • U.S. interest is highest in supply chain localization lessons, as America currently lacks a comprehensive drone industrial base (40:49).

• Operational Integration, Not Just Technology Acquisition

  • Real innovation is about processes, scale, and military doctrine—not just buying or imitating technology (43:32).
  • “...More about understanding the processes behind how we were able to scale this type of fighting across our army, how we were able to scale our manufacturing base, what kind of tactics we’re employing, how we’re innovating every day in terms of modularity... It’s something living, not static.” — Katyrina Schmatyna (43:32)

• Ukraine as Strategic Partner

  • Ukraine is now exporting naval drones and eager to integrate with global security architectures.

Highlighted Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Notable Moment | |-----------|---------|----------------------| | 03:02 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “We were starting on a back foot in 2022 is an understatement.” | | 07:40 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “We’ve essentially built this modular maritime capability where you can kind of put anything onto those that will serve your purpose.” | | 10:11 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “...First time in history that an unmanned sea vessel has threatened a fighter jet and has successfully downed a fighter jet.” | | 12:38 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “Wars now are very much wars of economies of scale... The only way we can remain viable is to find something that is competitive... at a much cheaper price.” | | 16:16 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “They have an unlimited amount of soldiers... but they do have a limited number of ships.” | | 19:38 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “Any country that is thinking about future maritime operations should be looking at the Black Sea... countering USVs is potentially an even bigger lesson.” | | 34:44 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “We’re also just walking on eggshells... we understand that that faucet can be turned off at any point.” | | 43:32 | Katyrina Schmatyna | “It’s really less about acquiring a Ukrainian drone... and more about understanding the processes behind how we were able to scale this type of fighting across, you know, our army...” |

Takeaways for Military Planners

• Innovation outpaces assets: Process, integration, flexibility, and modularity are as vital as—if not more than—the systems themselves.
• Supply Chains are Strategic: Localizing production down to core components is central to autonomy and resilience, especially in geoeconomically contested environments.
• Global Lessons: Both deployers and defenders against unmanned maritime systems must study the Black Sea case.

Closing Thoughts

Ukraine’s Black Sea experience is more than a regional success story—it’s rapidly becoming a global case study in asymmetric, tech-driven military adaptation. From lessons in modular innovation to the strategic shakiness of overreliance on foreign supplies, this episode distills the Black Sea not just as a battlefield, but as a blueprint for the next era of naval warfare.