The Lawfare Podcast – Rational Security: The “Chestbursters Roasting on an Open Fire” Edition
Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Scott R. Andersen
Panelists: Alan Rosenstein, Ari Tabatabai
Episode Overview
This episode of Lawfare’s Rational Security, hosted by Scott R. Andersen with panelists Alan Rosenstein and Ari Tabatabai, delves into three key national security topics: the Trump administration’s decision to reverse chip export controls to China, a controversial executive order seeking to preempt state regulation of AI, and the aftermath of a horrific ISIS-inspired terrorist attack at a Hanukkah event in Australia. With an end-of-year tone, the hosts employ trademark puns and dry humor, but dive deeply into complex geopolitical, legal, and social dynamics shaping contemporary national security.
Key Topics & Discussion Points
1. US Export of Nvidia H200 Chips to China: Strategy or Business?
(Starts ~06:00)
- Trump Administration’s Decision: The administration reversed restrictive export controls on advanced Nvidia AI chips (H200 series), allowing sales to China. This breaks with prior “small yard, high fence” policies designed to keep cutting-edge AI hardware out of Chinese hands.
- Scott: “Trump administration has come in, kicked the doors out, open to a variety of diffusion... this is one part of the anti-diffusion part of which there seemed to be a lot of consensus...” [07:40]
- Rationale & Debate: Some justify the move as undermining China’s domestic chip industry by making it dependent on US products, thus maintaining strategic leverage. Others worry it will empower China’s AI capabilities, including for military modernization, undermining US national security.
- Inter-Administration Contradictions: The panel highlights inconsistencies within the Trump national security strategy: it recognizes the importance of alliances and technological supremacy but simultaneously undermines international partnerships and funding for research and education critical to innovation.
- Ari: “It’s almost like you have these different sides of the House that wrote different parts of the document and they didn’t really clear it with one another...” [14:15]
- Industry-Led Innovation and the 25% “Kickback”: The group dissects the economic arguments (Nvidia’s interest vs. national interest) and raises serious concern over the administration’s planned 25% “kickback” or tax on exported chips, worried it reflects a focus on transactional benefit over robust strategy.
- Alan: “The very idea that we’re operating in a policy environment ... where idiotic, truly asinine considerations like can we make some money off of this deal? Is even being considered next to the profound strategic questions here makes me very uncomfortable...” [27:26]
- Military and Geopolitical Ramifications: Discussion includes how this could affect China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) advancements and global competitive balance, while noting uncertainties over diffusion, control, and the potential for China to double down on indigenous chip development regardless of access.
Notable Quote:
- Ari Tabatabai (on strategy contradictions):
"None of these policies that the administration has been pursuing over the past year seem to be driving in the direction that the National Security Strategy tells us it wants to go in." [17:38]
Key Segment:
- 06:42 – 28:03: AI chip exports, national security strategy contradictions, economic incentives, and legal issues with the administration’s approach.
2. Executive Order on AI: Federal Preemption vs. State Regulation
(Starts ~43:00)
- Overview: Trump’s executive order tasks the DOJ and regulators to preempt or deter state-level AI regulations, after legislative preemption failed in Congress.
- Alan’s Legal Breakdown: “An executive order is not magic. It is just a Truth Social post on nicer stationery… fundamentally, in almost all circumstances, it’s an interoffice memo…” [49:55]
- Legal Mechanisms Used: The EO directs the DOJ to challenge state laws on dormant Commerce Clause grounds and leverages federal funding (like BEAD broadband grants) as a lever against states.
- Likely Impact: The panel is skeptical, viewing the EO as largely performative (“horseshit” in Scott’s words [54:21]). They doubt its legal durability, practicality, and political effectiveness—especially in blue states intent on regulating AI for consumer protection or bias mitigation.
- Scott: “This administration loves to threaten things and it does sometimes get wins from that, and maybe they’ll get a little bit of win from here. But... it’s really, really a perverse and odd set of incentives...” [55:21]
- Strategic Tensions & Global Competition: Ari points out the contrasting ambitions of dominating global AI development with minimal regulation, while US diplomatic and tech-export infrastructure (e.g., USAID, State Dept. resources) is being eroded, hampering real competitive advantage abroad.
- Ari: “We are cutting the diplomatic infrastructure upon which we have relied to advocate for US businesses for the US models. Right. And so… we are making it more challenging, I think, to compete in this space.” [58:50]
Notable Quote:
- Alan Rosenstein:
"If you want really durable preemption, it’s going to have to come through Congress. An executive order is not magic." [49:55]
Key Segment:
- 43:00 – 58:00: Analysis of the executive order, legal and political constraints on federal preemption, state-federal dynamics in tech regulation.
3. Australia’s Hanukkah Massacre: Terrorism, Antisemitism, and Policy Response
(Starts ~63:41)
- The Attack: A father-son pair, inspired by ISIS, killed 15 and wounded 40 at a Hanukkah event in Bondi Beach, Sydney, shocking a nation with strict gun laws and contributing to a global pattern of rising antisemitism.
- Intersecting Issues:
- Immigration: Both attackers had immigrant backgrounds, fueling political discourse on migration and integration; the hero who subdued a shooter was a Muslim immigrant, complicating the narrative.
- Antisemitism: This joins a global surge linked to (but predating) the Israel-Gaza conflict. Ari calls for a “depoliticized,” global strategy to tackle hate, noting existing US and Australian failures to prioritize it.
- Ari: “This is a global trend… just to name a few incidents ... Australia itself has seen 3700 anti-Semitic attacks since October 7th. And this was as of this fall. That is an outrageous number.” [69:46]
- Counterterrorism as "Afterthought": The current national strategies (US and allied) downplay terrorism, which hasn’t disappeared.
- Ari: “Counterterrorism is very much an afterthought in that document. It’s almost as though we are wishing for the terrorism challenge to go away.” [67:40]
- Free Speech vs. Suppression: The panel wrestles with liberal responses to hate speech and policy effectiveness in democracies with differing traditions.
- Alan: “What does it mean to combat antisemitism in a liberal democracy where you don’t want to sacrifice speech? ... I have no idea.” [74:56]
- Gun Control Lessons: The limited casualties compared to US mass shootings underline the efficacy of Australia’s restrictive firearm laws but also the persistence of risk.
- Scott: “This is a real case study and exactly how those laws are really... effective. If you saw two attackers armed with those sorts of weapons you can buy in the United States, I cannot imagine how many more people would be dead.” [80:09]
Notable Quotes:
- Alan Rosenstein (on the persistent problem):
“The last, you know, there was a kind of golden age, I think, from… the 80s to the early 2000s, at least when I was growing up, where you could sort of forget that [antisemitism]. But history has reasserted itself with quite a vengeance.” [70:51]
Key Segment:
- 63:41 – 82:17: Attack details, policy ramifications, the global state of antisemitism, and challenges for liberal societies in response.
Object Lessons
(Starts ~82:44)
A signature Rational Security feature, where panelists share quirky or meaningful recommendations:
- Alan: Jesus Christ Superstar (musical & nostalgia for its wild retelling of Christianity) [82:44]
- “It’s metal man. It’s awesome.” [87:03]
- Scott: Family recipe for dense, rich sour cream coffee cake (“keeps you going through the holiday season”) [87:23]
- Ari: Recommends the film Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight (a heavy, nuanced movie about post-colonial southern Africa—“maybe save it for after the holidays” [89:05])
Memorable Moments & Quotes
-
On testing positive for the flu:
Scott: “I may have just infected my colleagues. I may have caught an international incident.” [03:26] -
AI and Potato Chips Puns:
Alan: “Can we also address the question of whether or not you’re allowed to talk about AI chips without making a potato chip pun?” [06:42] -
On the performative nature of executive orders:
Scott: “I am strongly in the horseshit camp 90% of the time.” [54:21]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 06:42 – AI chips to China
- 43:00 – Executive order on AI/state preemption
- 63:41 – Australia Hanukkah attack/antisemitism
- 82:44 – Object lessons
Tone & Style
The episode combines intellectual rigor, policy expertise, and sly wit—alternating brisk explanations, sharp analogies, and wry self-deprecation typical of the Rational Security crew. Banter and puns give way to deep concern on issues like antisemitism and global competition, wrapping with personal recommendations both heavy and light-hearted.
Takeaways
- The intersection of business, national security, and technology is fraught and often contradictory within the current administration’s strategies.
- Attempts to “preempt” state regulation of AI via executive order are legally dubious and may be politically counterproductive.
- The global escalation of antisemitic violence requires not just national but coordinated international policy responses—and deeper societal introspection.
- Performative executive orders and policy “showmanship” often mask the lack of substantive, coherent approaches.
For those who missed the episode:
This summary covers the episode’s main substance and tone, capturing the nuances, disputes, and dark humor of Lawfare’s year-end Rational Security roundtable.