The Lawfare Podcast: Rational Security – The “Don’t Upset the Masks” Edition

Date: October 15, 2025
Panel: Scott Anderson (C), Benjamin Wittes (D), Kate Klonick (B), Molly Roberts (A)

Overview:

In this edition of Rational Security, the Lawfare team dives deep into three main topics: the Trump administration’s new peace plan for Gaza and the first return of hostages, an unprecedented politicization of messaging during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and China’s dramatic move to restrict rare earth exports, escalating its tech war with the U.S. The team delivers both serious and skeptical takes on historic events, legal debates, and the shifting sands of global economics, all while maintaining their trademark blend of intellectual rigor, dry humor, and dire caution.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trump Administration’s Gaza Peace Plan: Ceasefire & Return of Hostages

[05:48–31:33]

The Context & What’s Happened

• After two years of conflict, the U.S.-brokered peace plan has produced a “triumphal” speech by President Trump at the Israeli Knesset, followed by a peace conference in Sharm el Sheikh.
• All living Israeli hostages have been returned from Gaza; in exchange, Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including some high-profile members of Hamas (but not all).
• The plan is applauded worldwide, with both Democrats and Republicans celebrating—an unusual moment of bipartisan and global agreement.

Skepticism & Limitations

• Ben Wittes:

  • Warns this is, crucially, a ceasefire, not a real peace.
  • Quote [11:21]:
    “It is a very good thing to have a ceasefire ... to get the 20 living Israeli hostages out ... The taking of hostages is a great war crime and the return of hostages is a positive good.”
  • But cautions, “a major speech to the Knesset by an American president and a big peace summit all seems to me to be wildly premature. This is not a matter of peace. This is a matter of a ceasefire.” ([12:20])
  • Doubts the Israeli government can or will survive this new situation more than a few weeks unless hostilities resume.
  • Suggests there’s significant skepticism about moving toward the much-hyped “two-state solution,” seeing this as a fragile achievement.

• Molly Roberts:

  • Acknowledges Trump’s role—his ability to leverage personal relationships with Gulf states and Israel, as well as his public popularity in Israel—but remains unconvinced of a stable process:
    “I don’t really understand what is to stop Israel from saying, ‘Hey Hamas, you haven’t disarmed to our satisfaction, which I don’t understand why Hamas would do, and then deal's off.’ ... I don’t really understand how this doesn’t fall apart.” ([18:13])

• Scott Anderson:

  • Argues what’s extraordinary is a fundamental shift: “The thing that has really shifted in this whole regard is a complete 180 of the Republican Party’s approach to this conflict.” ([19:20])
  • Walks through plan details: Israel denounces any annexation/permanent occupation of Gaza, guarantees right of return, Gaza to be governed by a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA)—returning to the Oslo framework.
  • Concedes Israeli buy-in is uncertain at best (“...maybe these really are like, yeah, we're on step one and then we're going to bail. But the administration's got like its whole credibility baked into this.” [23:57])

• Ben Wittes (skepticism on Trump’s staying power):

  • “We live in a post-truth world ... the administration's view this week ... announce whatever you want and do your photo ops and then we'll raise Gaza to the ground tomorrow. I mean, like, why does any of this bind Netanyahu for a second?” ([25:01])
  • Questioned the reliance on Trump’s ego: “I think you're relying on shame to regulate Trump ... Ego, not shame ... I think he will walk away from ever having done this in a heartbeat. He's flip flopped on Ukraine 30 times in a month and a half and his ego doesn't seem to have remotely taken a bruise...” ([27:05])

• Molly Roberts (re: Trump’s speech):

  • “It’s just hard to take it as seriously as one might wish. If he had said something that felt a little more concrete and coherent about a two state solution or really anything in that speech ... he got the ego boost that might be what he was looking for.” ([27:55])

The Takeaway

• All agree the return of hostages and immediate pause to violence are meaningful positives.
• The mood overall is deeply cautious—celebrating what’s immediately achieved but warning against premature triumphalism over peace prospects.

2. Partisanship and Lawbreaking: The Shutdown, the Hatch Act, and Political Messaging

[31:33–49:17]

What’s New

• A government shutdown has led to almost all federal websites carrying banners blaming Democrats/the “radical left.”
• Automated emails from federal employees and even airport videos repeat the political blame—which appears to be White House directives.

Legal and Ethical Analysis

• Molly Roberts:

  • Explains the Hatch Act’s Depression-era origins—made “to prevent federal employees from basically engaging in politics while on the job.”
  • “It seems really obvious ... that this is exactly what’s happening now under the Trump administration. Unfortunately ... the Hatch Act ... is pretty weak and the letter of the law is not necessarily being violated as clearly as its spirit is here.” ([34:28])

• Kate Klonick:

  • “Anyone can file a complaint through the Office of Special Counsel. Then the OSC investigates and reports to the President, who has discretion to act.” ([39:20])
  • “There is no private right of action ... You can file all these complaints ... the penalties ... can include reprimands, fines, suspension, or removal ... but [the President] will pardon all those people in the telephone book of pardons that comes out ... in 2028.” ([39:20])
  • Her favorite ChatGPT response, about enforcement: “That’s a sharp and important question. And it exposes a potential accountability gap in the enforcement structure of the Hatch Act. I’m like, oh, you’re about as useful and sycophantic as one of my 1Ls.” ([41:41])

• Ben Wittes:

  • Clarifies: “The Hatch Act remedy is a report to the President. And the idea is that the President ... will ... take administrative action to correct it. ... It's just one where the remedy contemplated is super quaint relative to our current capital S situation.” ([41:46])

• Molly Roberts:

  • Points out the acting OSC head is a Trump loyalist with concerning ties—"the nominee ... described federal workers as bugmen who leach the diminishing lifeblood of the dying republic." ([44:01])
  • Conclusion: “Nobody’s going to enforce any of these [laws]. And that’s exactly the problem. And the President is not going to do anything about it. And that’s the machine that Congress was talking about.” ([45:41])

Broader Implications

• Panel laments erosion of legal norms, the lack of true remedies, and the hollowing of institutional guardrails that constrain political power.

3. China’s Rare Earth Export Controls: Escalating the Tech War

[49:17–65:19]

What Happened

• China announced major new export controls on rare earth metals, threatening U.S. and allied access to materials crucial for high-tech manufacturing (especially semiconductors for AI).
• Trump responds by threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.
• The restrictions are “not a ban” but require onerous licenses. Targets downstream products with even minimal Chinese-origin content, mirroring U.S. approach to chip exports.

How Big of a Deal Is This?

• Kate Klonick:

  • Lays out how China’s dominance of rare earths (70% global supply, 90% of refinement) makes global tech sectors deeply vulnerable ([53:34]).
  • Notes that this move may be a bargaining ploy ahead of trade negotiations, with the real possibility that these controls never take effect if a deal is reached.
  • Discusses difficulties in replacing China as a supplier, especially for high-purity materials like noble gases needed for chips (“creating places that will ... reliably give you very high quality neon gases ... there’s just a few places that do them really well ... it actually turns out that ... creating [these] ... in China is prohibitively difficult” [59:20]).

• Benjamin Wittes:

  • Offers a chemistry lesson: “Noble gases are not makeable because they ... don’t bond with other chemicals ... you have to just find them ... The world is running out of helium right now ... you can’t just collect it from the atmosphere.” ([58:13])

The Leverage and Broader Stakes

• Scott Anderson:

  • Points out the timing suggests China aims for leverage in broader trade disputes; restrictions don’t start until after scheduled U.S.-China talks.
  • “These export controls could be a threat to the whole global economy. ... we have so much money pouring into infrastructure for AI development, which suddenly ... will have big economic ramifications all over the place.” ([61:50])

• Molly Roberts:

  • Adds that, on chips alone, the Biden administration’s export controls rather than Trump’s are the direct antecedents, but the move reflects broader trade war dynamics: “So definitely I think that this is about something bigger. ... as far as the impact ... as far as the impetus, I would guess, yes, it has to do with the broader trade war because on chips, Trump has been giving ground.” ([64:28])

Bottom Line

• China’s move is a high-stakes power play amid a superpower tech rivalry—with huge consequences for AI, manufacturing, and the global economy.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Gaza ceasefire:
  “Life under a ceasefire is better than life not under a ceasefire ... That is why ... the vast majority of Israelis have supported a deal ... for quite a number of months now ... most Palestinians have wanted a deal roughly like this for a goodly amount of time.”
  — Ben Wittes ([11:21])

• On the Trump administration’s role:
  “The thing that has really shifted in this whole regard is a complete 180 of the Republican Party’s approach to this conflict.”
  — Scott Anderson ([19:20])

• On the limitations of U.S. law:
  “Every time I talk on Rational Security, I’m like, and then there was this time we used to have the rule of law. And also I’m remiss to say that, like, the rule of law is actually maybe less of a thing than anyone ever thought it was.”
  — Kate Klonick ([37:59])

• On noble gases and chemistry:
  “Helium ... has a limited supply ... And so if you happen to have a landmark mass that doesn't have pockets of argon gas ... it's not like you can just manufacture it. You got to buy it from someone who's got it.”
  — Ben Wittes ([58:13])

• On institutional accountability:
  “The Hatch act remedy is a report to the President ... It’s just one where the remedy contemplated is super quaint relative to our current capital S situation.”
  — Ben Wittes ([41:46])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic/Segment | Start–End | | ---------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------- | | Show start, banter, introductions | [01:19–05:01] | | Gaza peace plan: events, praise, and skepticism | [05:48–31:33] | | U.S. government shutdown and partisan messaging (Hatch Act) | [31:33–49:17] | | China’s rare earth export controls & U.S. response | [49:17–65:19] | | Chemistry tangent: noble gases, history and consequences | [58:13–67:09] | | Object lessons (sunflowers, old sweatshirts, baking, gardening) | [67:09–73:22] |

Tone and Takeaways

• The panel mixes sharp legal analysis, historical context, and realpolitik with playful, self-aware banter.
• The team is vigilant in celebrating real policy accomplishments—hostage returns, ceasefire—but issues strong warnings against reading too much into early progress or believing bold political proclamations at face value.
• Across the board, there's deep concern about the erosion of legal and institutional checks in both U.S. domestic politics and the international system.

Object Lessons & Memorable Closers

[67:09–73:22]
A lighthearted segment where:

• Ben Wittes describes his campaign to mildly troll the Russian embassy with dead sunflowers, “littering” to annoy the neighbors in solidarity with Ukraine.
• Kate Klonick reflects on the bittersweet realization of having a 20-year-old “practically new” sweatshirt and the passage of time.
• Scott Anderson requests crowd-sourced ideas for recipes using his garden’s over-abundant ghost peppers.
• Molly Roberts encourages listeners to try baking a Swedish Princess cake (prinsesstårta), with resources to make daunting recipes approachable.

Lawfare’s Rational Security continues to provide high-level analysis at the intersection of law and national security, with equal doses of skepticism and wit—a crucial resource for making sense of tumultuous times.