The Lawfare Podcast: Rational Security – The “Midnight Train to Ukraine” Edition

Air Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Benjamin Wittes (Editor in Chief, Lawfare; recent visitor to Ukraine), Nastya Lapatan (Lawfare Ukraine fellow, Kyiv-based journalist)

Episode Overview

This special edition of Rational Security departs from the show’s usual round-up of national security stories to feature a deep, firsthand debrief from Benjamin Wittes, who has just returned from a two-week trip through Ukraine with Nastya Lapatan. Using their experiences on the ground, the hosts focus on three major topics: Russia’s winter attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the stalled state of negotiations over the war, and the rapid development—and future implications—of drone warfare in Ukraine.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Humanitarian Crisis: Russia’s Winter Offensive on Energy Infrastructure

[08:15 – 18:15]

• Russia’s Renewed Targeting of Energy: As in previous years, Russia is deliberately attacking Ukrainian power and heating infrastructure during winter, but this year the tactics are more sophisticated—with better drones, larger payloads, and more targeted strikes by both drones and ballistic missiles.
• Severity of Winter: A harsher, abnormal winter, with temperatures dropping below -25° C (-13° F), has left cities like Kyiv extremely vulnerable, as millions rely on centralized, Soviet-era heating systems.
• Kyiv’s Precarious Position: The complete destruction of one of Kyiv’s three centralized power plants has left large parts of the city—particularly the Left Bank—without heat or electricity, with the city and national government under criticism for failing to diversify energy generation or adequately fortify existing facilities.
• Insufficient Countermeasures: Ukrainian air defenses are strained, especially due to frequent shortages of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors. Promised protective structures over power stations remain unbuilt or ineffective. Calls for energy “mini power plants” have gone largely unheeded by local authorities.
• Everyday Hardship: Residents endure days without heat, water, or electricity, affecting mental health, productivity, and even basic hygiene. Nastya shares:

  “My family had to stay at a hotel because we had no heating and no water, and we have a toddler and literally could not bathe her.” – Nastya Lapatan [23:07]

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s hard to overstate just how much all this really gets under your skin on a day-to-day basis.” – Nastya Lapatan [23:07]
• “It’s actually much worse than anything you expected. There are places you can stand and look out over a landscape of hundreds of apartment buildings, and they’re all dark with just occasional lights in windows.” – Benjamin Wittes [18:54]
• “People have a lot of confidence in Ukrainian resilience… but people are not okay.” – Benjamin Wittes [24:06]

2. The Negotiating Table: Stalemate and Strategic Pressures

[25:22 – 56:07]

• War of Attrition—But Asymmetric: While some frame the conflict as a war of attrition, Russia’s pain tolerance skews toward conscript casualties and economic malaise (felt less by elites), whereas Ukraine’s democratic government faces direct public pressure from across society.
• Negotiations’ Stalled Progress: U.S.-backed talks in Abu Dhabi achieved only a prisoner swap for 157 Ukrainians. The central deadlock remains Russia’s demand for full Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining Donbas territories—a political and strategic non-starter for Kyiv.
• Both Sides Unwilling to “Cry Uncle”: Neither Russia nor Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. As long as neither feels existential urgency, meaningful breakthroughs remain elusive.
• U.S. Pressure and the Trump Administration: The Trump administration’s push for a peace deal by summer 2026 likely links to U.S. midterm elections, aiming to leverage both sides into a compromise. Yet actual American leverage—especially before the elections—is limited, as cutting off Ukraine would come with domestic political costs.

Notable Quotes:

• “The Russian goal is for Ukraine to be crushed and not be a sovereign nation, and Ukraine wants the exact opposite of that. How you reconcile that is an impossible task.” – Nastya Lapatan [55:16]
• “I think the best way to understand their position is they are assuming they do not have a single major patron… They have to play for time, both with respect to the war of attrition and with respect to the domestic politics of every country.” – Benjamin Wittes [61:11]
• “It is amazing how often you hear the term ‘midterm elections’ in Kyiv.” – Benjamin Wittes [58:38]

3. Drones: The Front Line of Technological Warfare

[66:42 – 79:29]

• Ubiquity of Drones: Ukraine is witnessing the first major conflict where drones—both aerial and ground-based—are integral for combat, logistics, and reconnaissance. Ben and Nastya visited a civilian-accessible drone school, underscoring Ukraine’s philosophy that “they’re not going to be civilians forever.”
• Rapid Iteration and Innovation: The development cycle for drones and countermeasures is lightning-fast, often a matter of weeks. Innovations emerge directly from the battlefield, requiring constant dialogue between troops and technical developers.
• Beyond Flying Drones: Unmanned ground vehicles are now used for logistics, supply runs, and evacuations. Ground and aerial drones have, in some cases, replaced traditional artillery with greater accuracy.
• Countermeasures & The Move Toward Autonomy: Counter-drone tactics range from high-tech (jamming, electronic warfare, detection systems) to low-tech (netting strung across roads). There is consensus that autonomous, “program-and-release” drones are inevitable:

  “Autonomy is coming. The human-in-the-loop crowd is going to lose this debate and we should just be frank about that.” – Benjamin Wittes [76:22]

Memorable Description:

• “Drone school is part escape room, part video game, part war.” – Benjamin Wittes [67:48]

Memorable Moments & Lighter Points

• Opening Banter: Wittes jokingly challenges Vladimir Putin to an “Ultimate Fighting” match for America’s 250th.
• The “Midnight Train”: Ben and Nastya recount sharing a Ukrainian train cabin, with Ben giving a “two-hour lecture on the Founding Fathers” [03:22]. Nastya jokes, “How you’re even a country is kind of crazy.” [03:44]
• Kyiv Street Life: Ben notes the irony of severe wartime living conditions—fully dark apartment blocks and icy roads—immediately visible after stepping outside.
• Object Lessons:
  • Ukrainian Hipster T-Shirts: Nastya takes Ben shopping for streetwear with sardonic anti-Russian slogans (“Ukrainsky slid,” “Kyiv regime,” and “Western curator”).

    “Anytime anything goes boom in Russia…the Russian propagandists are like, ‘Well, there is a Ukrainian trace in here.’” – Nastya Lapatan [81:10]

  • Ongoing Fundraiser: Nastya and Ben discuss their grassroots campaign to buy batteries and generators for Kyiv families suffering from power outages. [82:44]

    “If you want to help people in Ukraine and in Kyiv specifically suffering from the energy crisis—yes, give us your money. We need a lot of it.” – Nastya Lapatan [83:55]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [08:15]: Nastya details Russia’s winter assault on energy infrastructure and humanitarian fallout
• [18:54]: Ben describes the “shocking” darkness of Kyiv at night
• [25:22]: Transition to negotiation stalemate and strategy
• [36:55]: Update from the frontlines: mood, attrition, and geography
• [48:56]: Nastya on current negotiation status and territory red lines
• [61:11]: Ben analyzes Ukraine’s multi-pronged diplomatic strategy
• [66:42]: Deep dive into drone warfare innovations
• [76:22]: Ben on the inevitability of autonomous drones
• [79:41]: “Object lessons” segment—cultural and humanitarian recommendations

Overall Tone & Final Thoughts

The discussion is serious, richly informed, and at times darkly humorous—balancing firsthand on-the-ground testimony with strategic analysis and frank personal opinion. The recurring theme is resilience under adversity: Ukraine’s people endure a “perfect storm” of hardship, its government faces unrelenting strategic and diplomatic pressure, and its armed forces are pioneering the future of high-tech war.

The guests urge Western audiences not to overlook crisis “just because Ukrainians are plucky” and to recognize that both military and social resilience are under severe ongoing strain. The episode wraps with encouragement to stay informed and support relief efforts—while always keeping an eye on both the resilience and the needs of Ukraine’s civilian population.

Links to further information, donation methods, and referenced reports (e.g., CSIS report on Ukraine) are promised in the show notes.