The Lawfare Podcast: Rational Security—The “Scare Them When They’re Young” Edition
Date: January 15, 2026
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Tyler McBrien (Managing Editor, Lawfare), Michael Feinberg (Senior Editor, Lawfare), Ari (Public Service Fellow, Lawfare)

Episode Overview

In this “Rational Security” edition, Lawfare’s panel analyzes three high-stakes national security developments:

1. Iran’s unprecedented domestic unrest and the U.S. response
2. A controversial ICE shooting and what it reveals about American immigration enforcement
3. The Trump administration’s renewed push to acquire Greenland and diplomatic fallout in NATO.

With vivid discussion and some dark humor along the way, the panel offers historical perspective, policy analysis, and predictions on unfolding crises.

Key Topics & Discussions

1. IRAN IN TURMOIL: Between Iraq and a Hard Place

[04:41–39:07]

Background

• Since late December, Iran faces its most serious domestic unrest in decades, triggered by economic collapse and broader regime vulnerability post-conflict with Israel & U.S.
• Regime responded with unprecedented repression: tens of thousands arrested, Internet shutdowns, and estimates of 2,000–12,000 dead.
• President Trump issues forceful threats; U.S. weighs possible military action.

Panel Analysis

• Ari [09:06]:

  • This wave is “a bit more intense and concerning for the regime” compared to prior cycles, both because unrest began in traditional regime-supporting merchant classes and due to already battered proxies and nuclear assets after summer attacks.
  • Unusually high violence level likely reflects regime panic.
  • “The fact that it's willing to go up to this level of violence, of massacre, and this quickly, really indicates to me that they are feeling the pressure.”

• Michael Feinberg [16:06]:

  • Warns against U.S. rhetorical overreach reminiscent of 1956 (Hungarian Uprising):

    “While Eisenhower was very encouraging of the protests ... when it came to the moment ... he balked, and they all got killed.”

  • Cautions Trump’s promises may outstrip actual policy support and laments a likely lack of historical awareness.

• Scott R. Anderson [19:04]:

  • Stresses complexity of regime’s power structure (not a single figurehead):

    “Iran is your classic tinderbox case. If things really, really suddenly destabilize...no easy way out.”

  • Points to challenges of external intervention, risk of fragmentation, and potential for regional chaos should regime collapse occur.

• Tyler McBrien [24:13]:

  • Raises the specter of Kurdish armed crossings and regional escalation:

    “Really speaks to the possibility of regional instability ... should the regime fall.”

• Options & U.S. Calculus [30:44]

  • Panel debates possible U.S. responses: limited airstrikes, sabotage, “Venezuela model” targeting the supreme leader, and differing lessons drawn from 2025’s Maduro operation.
  • Skepticism about both military options and administration’s improvisational policymaking (“if we’re being polite, we could call it spontaneity or improv” — Feinberg [33:28]).

• European Response [21:52]:

  • Ari summarizes EU’s “shy” posture, as they historically lag behind U.S. in condemning or acting, waiting to calibrate moves amid uncertain facts on the ground.

Key Quotes

• Ari: "You don't always need to, you know, take over countries or use force to be able to achieve certain goals.” [67:26]
• Feinberg: “I fear we could be seeing a very unfortunate historical echo...” [17:59]

2. ICE SHOOTING & THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN ENFORCEMENT

[45:19–62:53]

Incident

• A violent ICE enforcement encounter in Minneapolis: Agent shot and killed Renee Goode, a driver/protestor, in a scenario disputed between law enforcement and bystander videos.
• The White House brands Goode as a “domestic terrorist.” FBI opens investigations into Goode’s widow. Career prosecutors resign in protest.

Panel Analysis

• Michael Feinberg [47:14]:

  • Itemizes failures: ICE’s tactics, preempted review of deadly force, and the agency’s “deprofessionalization.”

  • Criticizes rhetoric of impunity (“federal immunity”), calling it legally unfounded:

    “J.D. Vance made reference to federal immunity, which is not a concept that I have ever heard before in my life... What police officers have...is qualified immunity.” [50:28]

  • Warns ICE’s actions threaten public trust and could “set up the preconditions for [qualified immunity’s] demise.”

  • Explains that law enforcement “relies upon the cooperation of the polity,” which ICE is actively eroding:

    “If we demonize every Hispanic in the country...why on earth would anybody in that community ever rush to help law enforcement deal with the criminal element?” [53:45]

• Tyler McBrien [57:21]:

  • Notes surge in public support for abolishing ICE (“46% support,” highest ever), and queries whether ICE should even be considered part of law enforcement proper.

• Scott R. Anderson [58:29]:

  • Skeptical of “abolish ICE” and anti-law enforcement slogans, but underscores that “ICE…has had problems, frankly for a long time.”
  • Urges focus on incentives for good law enforcement, but recognizes the challenges ICE in particular presents.

• Feinberg on reform [60:20]:

  • “If you live in a house for a long enough time, at a certain point...you need to decide do you fix these problems or is the structural rot deep enough that it makes more sense to do a tear down and rebuild?”
  • Concludes that ICE’s alienation of target communities is so severe that “it’s really difficult for me to see how you rebuild that agency.”

3. THE GREENLAND CRISIS: U.S. vs. NATO

[62:53–78:53]

Developments

• Trump renews demand to buy or annex Greenland; threats escalate to suggest force.
• Denmark, Greenland, and allies send clear signals: the territory is not for sale and move to reinforce presence with European and Canadian troops.

Panel Analysis

• Tyler McBrien [65:10]:

  • Notes public and expert bafflement:

    “It’s not clear what Trump wants other than to make the US map bigger... It seems much less like a joke now.”

• Cites historian Daniel Immerwahr’s view this is a novel “break” in U.S. colonial attitudes and realpolitik.

• Ari [67:26]:

  • Argues no practical U.S. benefit versus immense diplomatic cost:

    “You don’t always need to...take over countries or use force to be able to achieve certain goals.”

  • Predicts fracturing of NATO and warns of potential nuclear proliferation among uneasy European allies.

• Scott R. Anderson [69:59]:

  • Describes real-time troops deployment as “facts on the ground” deterrence, reminiscent of Taiwan scenarios.
  • Lays out three U.S. strategic options:
    1. Persuade Danes & Greenlanders (now unlikely)
    2. “Soft occupation”/investment (harder given current U.S. posture)
    3. Military operation (calls this “absurd” and politically untenable).
  • Sees a “classic example” of presidential improvisation and lack of internal dissent.

• Michael Feinberg [75:40]:

  • Draws larger alliance lesson:

    “…If you are one of those nations in the Indo-Pacific region or really anywhere else on the globe, why on earth would you accept an overture of an alliance from the United States if you see them violating the very concept as soon as it’s convenient?”

• Memorable Moment [78:04]:

  • Tyler recounts a Greenlander filing a police complaint in Nuuk against Trump’s “aggressive behavior.”
  • “I just love the idea of walking into the police station of Nuuk and being like, yeah, there’s this guy, he’s being really aggressive. He’s harassing me. His name’s Donald.” [78:04]

Notable Quotes & Soundbites

• Ari:

  “This is a bit more intense and a bit more concerning from the regime’s perspective than what we’ve seen before.” [15:47]

• Michael Feinberg:

  “I fear we could be seeing a very unfortunate historical echo in what happened a long time ago.” [17:59]

  “By abusing [qualified immunity], ICE is very much setting up the preconditions for its demise.” [52:02]

• Scott R. Anderson:

  “Iran is your classic tinderbox case.” [24:52]

  “This just strikes me as a classic example of just the problem of the President going out on a limb. No one in the administration having the guts...to second guess him.” [69:59]

• Tyler McBrien:

  “You hear a lot of messaging from Trump officials about how ICE agents can act...with impunity…” [49:50]

Important Segment Timestamps

• Panelist intros and episode setup: [04:15–05:41]
• Iran’s mass unrest begins: [09:06]
• US posture compared to 1956, Tiananmen, Venezuela: [16:06–18:02]
• Complications of Kurdish groups and regime fragmentation: [24:13]
• U.S. options analysis (“Venezuela model,” airstrikes, etc.): [30:44]
• ICE shooting in Minneapolis and debate over impunity, qualified immunity: [45:19–53:45]
• Law enforcement trust and ICE’s future: [53:45–62:53]
• Greenland situation, Denmark/Greenland response, NATO fissures: [62:53–78:53]

Object Lessons — Recommendations to End the Episode

[79:15–84:10]

• Tyler: Musical album “Way Dynamic—Massive Shoe” (“Every song is different and yet coherent.”)
• Mike: Paul Thomas Anderson film retrospective at Silver Spring’s AFI; highlights his first film, “Hard Eight.”
• Scott: Endorses bizarre but effective “shoulder harness book light” for bedtime reading (“You do look … like you are in some sort of post-apocalyptic wasteland.”)
• Ari: The film “Pain and Glory” (Pedro Almodóvar, 2019, starring Antonio Banderas), described as “beautiful…excellent cinematography, great acting.”

Takeaways

• Iran is at a dangerous inflection point, with the regime on the defensive and U.S. deliberating high-risk responses; historical echoes are front of mind.
• ICE enforcement has reached new levels of controversy; legal doctrines of immunity and trust in federal policing hang in the balance.
• Greenland is now both a flashpoint in U.S.-European relations and an object lesson in the consequences of improvisational foreign policy and disregard for allied sovereignty.
• The panel’s tone is serious but irreverent, with empathy for those on the ground and pointed criticism of performative and reckless executive behavior.

For more context or to follow ongoing coverage, visit lawfaremedia.org.