The Lawfare Podcast

Rational Security: The “Sects, Lies, and Twin Peaks” Edition

February 19, 2026

Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Dan Byman, Ariane (Ari) Tabatabai, Mike Feinberg

Episode Overview

This lively “Rational Security” episode features Lawfare’s international affairs crew dissecting upheavals and shifting alliances across three major foreign policy fronts: the US-Europe transatlantic relationship, Iran nuclear talks, and the evolving US approach to China under Trump’s second administration. Interwoven throughout is a candid, sometimes wry analysis of political speech, diplomatic symbolism, and the underlying values (or lack thereof) shaping today’s geopolitics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Munich Security Conference & the State of the Transatlantic Relationship

(Main segment: 05:13–28:37)

Core Topics:

• Shift in European Attitudes: European leaders at the 2026 Munich Security Conference signaled unprecedented willingness to “go it alone” from the US, moving beyond calls for burden sharing to posing the United States itself as a potential threat.
• Comparison of Rhetoric: Secretary Rubio’s “conciliatory” remarks were perceived as less incendiary than last year’s Vice President Vance’s, but the hosts argue the underlying US message and policy are not vastly different.
• Europe’s Changing Calculation: Recent crises like the “Greenland incident,” longer-term doubts about US reliability, and American interventions in European domestic politics have deeply shaken trust.

Notable Quotes:

• Ari Tabatabai [09:36]:
  "You have European allies whose intelligence communities are increasingly putting out public assessments about the United States as a threat, not as an ally, not even just unreliable—as a threat."
• Dan Byman [13:05]:
  "The bar is so much lower in terms of what is expected of the United States... We’re in a place—really a kind of an abyss—when it comes to the transatlantic relationship."
• Mike Feinberg [14:47]:
  "This read like a really bad syllabus from a Hillsdale dropout. In trying to talk about the intellectual tradition that binds Europe and the United States, by not focusing on any of the liberal tradition, Rubio actually alienated the Europeans."

Key Insights:

• More Europeans now see the US as a source of unpredictability, not just a wavering partner.
• Different US delegations at Munich (from the Trump admin, Congress, state governors) sent conflicting signals, weakening the sense of future continuity.
• The traditional US “elite consensus” on the value of the alliance has eroded domestically, making reassurances less persuasive abroad.

Memorable Moment:

• Scott R. Anderson [16:31]: "The conciliatory description of Rubio’s remarks is really a US press description... His substantive point isn’t that different [from Vance]."

2. Iran Negotiations—the Possibility of a New Nuclear Deal

(Main segment: 28:37–56:04)

Core Topics:

• Geneva Talks: Fresh direct and indirect negotiations are ongoing as Iran, under significant internal pressure after defeat and crackdowns, faces heavy US demands.
• Iran’s Weakness and US Leverage: Brutal protest suppression, economic crisis, and severe security setbacks have created a rare moment of Iranian vulnerability.
• Debate: To Negotiate or Not:
  • Dan Byman and Scott Anderson: Argue that extreme leverage means now is the time to negotiate key nuclear and security concessions.
  • Ari Tabatabai & Mike Feinberg: Skeptical—see danger in legitimizing the regime after massive domestic abuses and question the readiness for a substantive deal.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Byman [30:17]:
  "Iran is in an exceptionally difficult spot right now. There is a tremendous political crisis... and a broader security crisis. The regime desperately needs something to move the country forward."
• Ari Tabatabai [34:28]:
  "If you want to actually negotiate on these very complex issues... you need the two sides to actually sit down and talk. To me, it signals there is not a seriousness on behalf of regime decision makers."
• Mike Feinberg [44:46]:
  "Every study from World War II going forward shows that [air and naval] strikes usually have the opposite effect and serve to unify disparate factions within the affected country."
• Scott Anderson [48:40]:
  "Negotiations are important. Lines of communication are there. I think there is a moment of extreme leverage here to accomplish long-term objectives."

Key Insights:

• Despite dire regime circumstances, both skepticism (over indirect talks and timing) and concern about negotiating with a weakened, brutal regime dominate the non-State viewpoints.
• Ari and Mike advocate less visible pressure, such as sanctions, intelligence outreach, or covert support for local opposition, rather than overt negotiation or strikes.
• Dan stresses the need to use leverage for tangible US strategic goals, cautioning that ignoring negotiations leaves only military escalation.

Memorable Moment:

• Mike Feinberg [53:32]:
  "True to form, the two State Department alumni are optimistic about a negotiation and the DoD and IC alumni are... urging covert action rather than discussions at a table. So do not come to Rational Security to see professional stereotypes shattered."

3. The Quixotic US Approach to China: Conciliation Amid Rising Threats

(Main segment: 56:04–72:47)

Core Topics:

• Trump Administration’s Surprising Moderation: Despite hawkish reputations, US policy toward China has grown notably less confrontational, centered mainly on trade and economic interests.
• Chinese Assertiveness: China’s military purges, nuclear buildup, and naval expansion continue largely unchecked; US allies in Asia are left questioning American resolve.
• Disconnect Between Rhetoric and Policy: Trump-era bluster against China has not translated into substantive counter-policy, and past China hawks within the administration appear sidelined or ineffective.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Feinberg [59:39]:
  "China is always taking steps that strategically disadvantage the United States, but never so confrontational as to push the moment to crisis... There wasn't a there there [in Trump administration policy]."
• Ari Tabatabai [67:24]:
  "We have an administration that not only has kind of deprioritized China... but is signaling to Indo-Pacific allies that we are not going to be reliable partners."
• Mike Feinberg [72:47]:
  "There is a lot of bloviating rhetoric... but I really struggle to think of a materially tougher US policy on China [from 2016–2020] than came out during the Obama or Bush years."

Key Insights:

• The administration’s national security focus on “balance of payments” with China sidelines traditional military and security concerns, unsettling traditional partners.
• Even internal “China hawks” (e.g., Colby, Rubio) are unable or unwilling to shape more assertive policy.
• The episode suggests US deterrence on Taiwan and broader Asia could be eroding, with potential long-term risks.

Other Memorable Moments

• Twin Peaks Opening Banter (02:23–04:15): A brief, humorous detour into the hosts’ personal connections to the cult TV show “Twin Peaks.”
• Reflection on Domestic-International Linkages ([25:00] & [26:49]):
  • The durability of the “elite consensus” on transatlantic relations has collapsed, with political changes in the US making European leaders skeptical about any assurances of continuity—even under more moderate presidents.
• Values Gap, Not Just Policy Gaps ([26:49]–[28:37]):
  • Ari remarks on how US and European values are diverging, complicating attempts to shore up old alliances with familiar rhetoric alone.

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps & Attribution)

• Ari Tabatabai [09:36]:
  "...European allies whose intelligence communities are increasingly putting out public assessments about the United States as a threat..."
• Dan Byman [13:05]:
  "We’re in a place—a kind of abyss—when it comes to the transatlantic relationship..."
• Mike Feinberg [14:47]:
  "This read like a really bad syllabus from a Hillsdale dropout."
• Scott Anderson [16:31]:
  "The conciliatory description of Rubio’s remarks is really a US press description..."
• Dan Byman [19:23]:
  "It's very hard for any leader to speak on behalf of America's future when there's not a bipartisan consensus."
• Mike Feinberg [25:00]:
  "...both parties are very much groping for some sort of unified vision. There are no grand strategists yet...that leaves a lot of uncertainty if you're Europe..."
• Ari Tabatabai [26:49]:
  "...the values piece...is really important, gets lost a lot...you have this fundamental shift..."
• Dan Byman [30:17]:
  "Iran is in an exceptionally difficult spot right now. Multiple crises... The regime desperately needs something to move the country forward."
• Ari Tabatabai [34:28]:
  "I am not sure that I'm seeing a lot of seriousness in the negotiations right now."
• Mike Feinberg [44:46]:
  "Every study From World War II going forward shows that [air and naval] strikes...usually serve to unify...disparate factions within the affected country."
• Scott Anderson [48:40]:
  "Negotiation is important...there is a moment of extreme leverage here to accomplish long-term objectives..."
• Mike Feinberg [59:39]:
  "[China] always taking steps that strategically disadvantage the United States, but never so confrontational as to push the moment to its crisis..."
• Ari Tabatabai [67:24]:
  "We're really missing a strategic opportunity to be focusing on this issue..."
• Mike Feinberg [72:47]:
  "There is a lot of bloviating rhetoric...but I really struggle to think back...and find a US policy that was materially tougher on China..."

Object Lessons & Closing Recommendations

(78:30–end)

Dan Byman: Recommends the board game “John Company,” a dysfunctional game about the British East India Company, highlighting competitive dynamics and unintended consequences.

Ari Tabatabai: Recommends seeing the Broadway adaptation of “Death Becomes Her”—a quirky, delightful performance well worth the trip.

Scott Anderson: Promotes the comedic short videos of “Jess and Quinn” for fans of absurd, pun-heavy humor.

Mike Feinberg: Warns against reading the “Poetry for Kids: Robert Frost” collection to small children, due to unexpectedly dark subject matter.

Conclusion

This episode of Rational Security offers a nuanced, sometimes wary account of a global security landscape in flux—where old alliances fray, adversaries maneuver under radar, and the values that once anchored US foreign policy prove less persuasive both at home and abroad. The hosts balance sharp policy analysis with candor, wit, and the occasional pop culture detour—making for an engaging and incisive guide to the week’s international affairs.

For full analysis and timely links, visit lawfaremedia.org.