Rational Security: The “Shaving Face” Edition The Lawfare Podcast | Release Date: May 7, 2025

In this engaging episode of The Lawfare Podcast, hosted by Scott R. Anderson and featuring Ben Wittes and guest Nastya Lapatna from the Lawfare Institute, listeners are treated to a rich discussion that seamlessly blends light-hearted banter with serious analysis of pressing national security issues. The episode, titled "Rational Security: The 'Shaving Face' Edition," delves into significant shifts within the Trump administration, the contentious US-Ukraine minerals agreement, and Russia's strategic maneuvers in the Arctic.

1. Leadership Shifts in National Security: From Mike Waltz to Marco Rubio

Key Points:

• Background: Mike Waltz's removal as National Security Advisor and his subsequent nomination as US Ambassador to the UN marks a significant leadership change within the Trump administration. This shift places Marco Rubio into the National Security Advisor role.

• Discussion Highlights:

  • Scott R. Anderson humorously addresses the administration's approach to Waltz's transition, emphasizing Trump's lack of need for a traditional advisor:

    "Trump doesn't need a national security adviser because the national security adviser's job is to run a process, and Trump doesn't believe in process." [07:34]

  • Ben Wittes explores the potential influence Rubio might wield, comparing him to historical figures like Henry Kissinger, albeit with skepticism about his actual impact:

    "It gives you a real sense of gravitas that I think you should think about it." [04:18]

  • Nastya Lapatna provides insights from a Ukrainian perspective, suggesting that such administrative changes may hold limited sway over actual foreign policy decisions:

    "All of these people have close to zero effect on what Trump decides to do on any given day." [12:58]

Insights: The hosts concur that Rubio's appointment is more symbolic than substantive, given Trump's preference for informal advisors who operate outside traditional channels. The discussion underscores the challenges of exerting meaningful influence within an administration that prioritizes personal rapport over institutional processes.

2. The US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement: Strategic Necessity or Exploitative Deal?

Key Points:

• Background: After prolonged negotiations, the US and Ukraine have signed a minerals agreement intended to secure US investment in Ukraine's resource extraction sectors. This deal comes amidst ongoing military and political tensions in the region.

• Discussion Highlights:

  • Nastya Lapatna outlines the agreement's evolution, highlighting that initial drafts were heavily tilted in favor of US interests, but later versions removed exploitative clauses, such as debt repayment and conditions threatening Ukraine's EU accession:

    "There is no clause or language suggesting that Ukraine has to repay the aid that it received." [36:49]

  • Ben Wittes analyzes the legal and political framework, noting that the deal is designed to incentivize continued US support while offering preferential access to Ukraine's natural resources:

    "This agreement is clearly intended to speak to the sort of worldview that Donald Trump seems to espouse." [48:08]

  • Scott R. Anderson criticizes the agreement from a US ethical standpoint but acknowledges its necessity for Ukraine under current pressures:

    "It is still a disgraceful thing for the United States government to do." [44:29]

  • Ben Wittes later offers a "silver lining" perspective, arguing that the deal could foster sustained US investment and military aid, aligning US economic interests with Ukraine's security needs:

    "America's investment into the funds can also be counted as American military aid." [50:57]

Insights: The hosts present a nuanced view of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, recognizing its potential to bolster Ukraine's economy and security ties with the US while also critiquing its transactional nature. The agreement is seen as a pragmatic, albeit ethically questionable, response to the immediate geopolitical challenges facing Ukraine.

3. Russia's Arctic LNG Facilities: Strategic Expansion Amidst Sanctions

Key Points:

• Background: Russia continues to develop its liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure in the Arctic, striving to capitalize on emerging navigable routes and resource extraction opportunities catalyzed by climate change.

• Discussion Highlights:

  • Nastya Lapatna details the operational status of Russia's Yamal LNG facility and the stalled Arctic 2 project due to Biden-era sanctions. She highlights attempts by Chinese companies to circumvent these sanctions, pointing to the effectiveness and limitations of current measures:

    "They have been trying to circumvent those sanctions at the second Arctic Yamo plant." [55:47]

  • Scott R. Anderson emphasizes Russia's geographical advantages in the Arctic, including its extensive coastline and strategic positioning relative to other Arctic nations:

    "They have one huge advantage, which is they've got the absolute majority of the Arctic coast." [58:57]

  • Ben Wittes discusses the broader implications of major power competition in the Arctic, critiquing the Trump administration's insufficient support for robust sanctions enforcement:

    "The Trump administration cut... really hurts the ability to implement these things in the long run." [60:00]

Insights: The conversation underscores Russia's persistent efforts to dominate the Arctic region's resource extraction despite international sanctions. The hosts highlight the challenges in enforcing these sanctions effectively, especially under the Trump administration's reduced focus on bureaucratic support and intelligence capabilities. This dynamic points to ongoing and escalating competition in one of the world's most strategically significant and resource-rich regions.

Conclusion

The Lawfare Podcast episode "Rational Security: The 'Shaving Face' Edition" offers a comprehensive analysis of pivotal national security developments, notably the Trump administration's internal leadership shifts, the intricate US-Ukraine minerals agreement, and Russia's strategic Arctic initiatives. Through insightful dialogue and expert perspectives, the hosts illuminate the complex interplay between politics, ethics, and international strategy that defines contemporary global security challenges.

Listeners are encouraged to explore more in-depth discussions and analyses through Lawfare's various podcast offerings and support the initiative via their Patreon page for ad-free content and additional benefits.

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