The Lawfare Podcast: Rational Security – The “Skrill Ex Parte” Edition
Release Date: July 30, 2025
Host: Scott R. Andersen
Guests: Tyler McBrien, Natalie Orpen, Alan Rosenstein

Rational Security, hosted by Scott R. Andersen of The Lawfare Institute, delves into critical national security issues intersecting law and policy. In this episode, the discussion revolves around three main topics: the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the Trump administration's AI Action Plan, and recent developments in the military commissions handling 9/11 perpetrators.

1. The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

The episode opens with an urgent examination of the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Since March, the Israeli government's near-total blockade has severely restricted humanitarian assistance, leading to dire consequences for Gazan civilians.

Key Points:

• Blockade Impact: The blockade has limited the influx of food, medical supplies, and other essential aid, pushing the civilian population towards the brink of famine.
• International Pressure: Major global players, including European nations like France and the United Kingdom, are expressing increasing concern. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the UK has even hinted at the possibility of recognizing a Palestinian state if the crisis persists beyond September.
• Shift in Israeli Policy: While Israel has initiated minimal aid airlifts, domestic pressure within Israel is mounting. Notably, Israeli officials from Netanyahu's cabinet have made statements suggesting extreme measures against Gaza, contrasting with the suffering depicted in international media.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott R. Andersen [05:54]: “Reports indicate dozens, including children, are dying from malnutrition and starvation in Gaza.”
• Tyler McBrien [12:44]: “There's a shift in the discourse, and we are seeing a convergence of media and political pressure that is hard to ignore.”

Analysis: Tyler McBrien contends that while this moment feels pivotal due to the convergence of humanitarian need and international pressure, it's premature to determine if it signifies a lasting change or a temporary setback. The internal dynamics within the Israeli government, coupled with the resignation of exacerbating factors like the lack of evidence supporting claims that Hamas is diverting aid, suggest a complex landscape ahead.

2. Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan

Transitioning to artificial intelligence, the podcast discusses the Trump administration's newly released AI Action Plan. This 28-page document marks a significant departure from the Biden administration's AI policies focused on safety and ethics.

Key Points:

• Three Pillars: The plan emphasizes innovation, infrastructure development, and international policy and security.
• Comprehensive Approach: With 90 policy recommendations, the plan aims to bolster American AI dominance, foster economic growth, and mitigate security risks associated with AI advancements.
• Reception: The plan has been met with cautious optimism due to its inclusive nature, addressing concerns from various stakeholders in the AI community.

Notable Quotes:

• Natalie Orpen [36:43]: “The plan includes 90 policy recommendations aimed at keeping the U.S. at the forefront of AI development while addressing potential security concerns.”
• Scott R. Andersen [48:17]: “Many provisions rely on government spending and infrastructure improvements which, under the current administration, may face implementation challenges.”

Analysis: Natalie Orpen highlights that the administration sought input from over 10,000 contributors, reflecting a broad consensus across different sectors. However, Scott Andersen expresses skepticism about the plan's feasibility, pointing out potential conflicts between ambitious policy recommendations and the administration's existing constraints on government spending and infrastructure capacity. The discussion underscores the tension between fostering rapid AI innovation and implementing necessary regulatory safeguards.

3. Military Commissions and 9/11 Defendants

The third segment addresses the ongoing legal battles within the military commissions at Guantanamo Bay, specifically focusing on the plea agreements involving 9/11 perpetrators.

Key Points:

• Plea Agreements: Initially, plea deals were struck to avoid the death penalty in exchange for guilty pleas, aiming to provide some closure for victims' families.
• Defense Secretary's Intervention: Lloyd Austin attempted to nullify these agreements, leading to significant legal disputes.
• D.C. Circuit Decision: The court upheld Austin's decision to rescind the plea deals, citing overreach of authority. This decision raises concerns about the future of the military commissions and the potential for an interminable legal process.

Notable Quotes:

• Alan Rosenstein [57:00]: “The D.C. Circuit ruled that the Secretary of Defense overstepped his authority in rescinding the plea agreements.”
• Tyler McBrien [68:35]: “The implications of this decision could lead to an interminable legal process, with no resolution in sight.”

Analysis: Alan Rosenstein emphasizes that the military commission system, fraught with procedural ambiguities and legal uncertainties, is unlikely to achieve closure on the 9/11 cases. The court's decision, seen as a setback for finalizing appeals, underscores the systemic challenges within the military justice framework. Tyler McBrien adds that this prolonged legal battle not only affects the administration's credibility but also leaves families of victims without the anticipated closure.

Conclusion and Object Lessons

The episode concludes with object lessons where the hosts share relevant insights and recommendations:

• Kevin Frazier: Highlights a technological breakthrough from the University of Texas, where AI was used to identify materials that could significantly reduce energy consumption in buildings.

  Quote: “This is a huge breakthrough... AI might not cause the end of the world.”

• Tyler McBrien: Discusses an article from The Baffler magazine on the evolution of professional bull riding, emphasizing the industry's growth and inherent dangers.

  Quote: “It's a total romp. It's really interesting.”

• Natalie Orpen: Recommends Drive Your Plow Over the Bones of the Dead by Olga Tokarczuk, praising its unique narrative blending murder mystery with cultural insights.

  Quote: “It's a very beautiful book, very, very unique.”

• Alan Rosenstein: Reflects on the role of AI-generated misinformation in conflicts, citing an article by the Carnegie Endowment that illustrates how fabricated images can distort public perception and influence international responses.

  Quote: “It's absolutely fascinating and a very important front of research.”

Final Thoughts

This episode of Rational Security offers a comprehensive exploration of urgent national security issues, blending in-depth analysis with expert perspectives. By addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the dynamic shifts in AI policy under the Trump administration, and the protracted legal struggles within military commissions, the podcast provides listeners with critical insights into the complex interplay of law, policy, and national security.

For more episodes and in-depth analyses, visit www.lawfareblog.com