The Lawfare Podcast: Rational Security – The “Whole Etsy Store of Horrors” Edition

Date: August 20, 2025
Host: Scott R. Anderson (plus Anna Bauer, Chris Mirasola, Mikhailo Soldadenko)

Overview

This episode dives into a week packed with high-stakes national security developments: seismic negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, the evolving federal intervention in Washington, D.C. policing, and the continued political tumult over the so-called Epstein files. The Lawfare team (Scott, Anna, Chris, and debut guest Mikhailo) break down the latest events with their signature blend of expertise and conversational wit.

Main Discussion Topics & Key Insights

1. Ukraine-Russia Negotiations: New Leverage and Uncharted Terrain

Key Points:

• Intense diplomatic efforts have led to a new round of talks, notably following a summit in Alaska between Trump and Putin, and a subsequent meeting in Washington, D.C., including Zelensky and European leaders.
• Russian concessions: After a deadlock in Istanbul, Russia appeared—at least rhetorically—to soften demands, shifting from requiring Ukraine’s withdrawal from three oblasts to just Donetsk for a ceasefire ([08:23]).
• US role: The Trump administration is applying pressure on Russia with threats of secondary sanctions and pushing for creative security guarantees ("not NATO Article 5, but similar") ([08:23]).
• Security guarantees v. territorial concessions: The negotiations now hinge on two prongs: Ukraine’s potential territorial compromises and the shape of security assurances from Western allies.

Notable Quote:

“There seems to be at least a public expression of an interest of hitting some sort of agreement at least. Certainly the Trump administration is pushing in that direction.” — Scott R. Anderson ([07:19])

Timestamps / Segments:

• [05:49–08:23]: Scene-setting, recap of recent shuttle diplomacy.
• [08:23–15:22]: Mikhailo breaks down new negotiation dynamics.
• [15:22–21:31]: Internal U.S. roles and potential shakeups (Kellogg vs. Witkoff), European stances.
• [21:31–37:41]: Deep dive into the hard questions—territorial trade-offs, nature of security guarantees, the practicality and politics of a “neutral” Ukraine.

2. Federal Control and National Guard Deployments in Washington, D.C.

Key Points:

• President Trump has escalated efforts to assert federal authority over D.C.’s policing, deploying hundreds of National Guard and federal officers, with some governors sending additional troops ([39:03]).
• Legal authorities: Chris clarifies that the deployments use Section 502(f) (Title 32), keeping Guard units under governor control and outside the strictures of the Posse Comitatus Act ([40:28]).
• Protective power doctrine: The episode explains the Executive Branch’s broad interpretation of its constitutional authority to protect federal property/personnel—an approach with significant legal controversies ([42:56, 47:06, 49:22]).
• Litigation updates: Anna recaps emergency court hearings over the appointment of a federal police commissioner and the attempted assertion of direct federal command over the Metropolitan Police ([54:15]).
• Tactical legal adjustments: DOJ walked back its most aggressive orders after judicial pushback, shifting to a “liaison” model rather than outright control ([54:15]).

Notable Quotes:

“The substantive authorization...goes back to the protective power, this theory of inherent constitutional authority...It’s a particularly important distinction.” — Chris Mirasola ([40:28])

“Judge Reyes said...‘I'm going to wait to see if there's a new order from Bondi issued, and if there's not, I'm going to issue a TRO, because I do think that this order goes beyond what the act allows.’” — Anna Bauer ([54:15])

Timestamps / Segments:

• [39:03–42:56]: Unpacking the D.C. military deployments.
• [47:06–54:15]: Protective power legal arcana; implications for D.C.
• [54:15–59:01]: Trial diaries—courts, DOJ, and the legal brinksmanship over federal-local command.

3. The LA Deployment & The Protective Power Principle in Court

Key Points:

• California litigation (Newsom v. Trump) spotlighted the blurred line between public order, military deployment, and the limits of the Posse Comitatus Act ([60:43]).
• The government argues all actions were in defense of federal property—an exception; challenges abound over whether the Posse Comitatus Act allows for civil remedies at all.
• Big legal issue: Can states bring suit under a criminal statute? If not, does any meaningful remedy exist for violations of the Posse Comitatus Act?
• Chris points out confusion and inconsistency in executive and legal interpretations, and courts wrestling ineffectively with foundational questions.

Notable Quotes:

“The law of domestic military deployments is broken, you know, three ways to Sunday...It’s an absolute mess.” — Chris Mirasola ([64:43])

Timestamps / Segments:

• [60:43–68:25]: Detailed trial breakdown, litigation strategy, and legal philosophy on the military's domestic role.
• [68:25–72:57]: Enforcement mechanics for the PCA; exclusionary rule as workaround; constitutional concerns.

4. The Epstein Files: Transparency, Conspiracy, and Political Fallout

Key Points:

• The issue of the "Epstein files" has uniquely riled Trump’s political base, even leading to rare dissent within administration ranks and at DOJ ([72:57]).
• MAGA figures, once purveyors of conspiracy narratives, are now finding themselves targets of suspicion for failing to release information, fueling distrust ([74:32]).
• The parallel is drawn to the "28 pages" of the 9/11 report: years of speculation and disappointment once released.
• The panel discusses larger issues of institutional trust, government secrecy, and political weaponization of transparency promises.

Notable Quotes:

“If every time somebody went through a criminal investigation, you released every document related to them...it would be A, a huge volume of materials, and B, a bunch of people could be implicated...because they happened to do business with them once...” — Scott R. Anderson ([78:35])

Timestamps / Segments:

• [72:57–83:06]: Epstein files as a political and cultural phenomenon; roots of the controversy and its dangers.
• [83:06–84:16]: Reflection on public trust and agency legitimacy.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On U.S. personnel presence as a deterrent:

  “When you have troops located somewhere...you practically cannot attack that state without putting those soldiers at risk. And that creates both a political imperative to defend them...” — Scott R. Anderson ([33:13])

• On legal absurdities:

  “If you assert this...we can just ignore all the statutes that Congress has enacted about D.C....It’s just totally dissociated from the more nuanced, detailed way we think about separation of powers...” — Chris Mirasola ([49:22])

• On the Trump administration’s negotiation approach:

  “Sometimes, you can imagine a situation where we have a ceasefire...but there is rearming, regrouping on the Russian side and there is no security infrastructure in place.” — Mikhailo Soldadenko ([15:22])

Object Lessons (Fun, Lighthearted Recommendations)

• Anna: The recent “New Heights” podcast episode featuring Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. (“Just talking for two hours...maybe never happened in Taylor Swift’s career!”) ([84:27])
• Chris: Visiting Michaels crafts stores for non-battery, creative fun with kids—“the heaven I did not know existed for parents!” ([87:17])
• Scott: Anthropologie’s “dog shirt” fashion trend and its accidental homage to Lawfare’s Benjamin Wittes. ([88:29])
• Mikhailo: Yale’s Timothy Snyder lecture series on Ukraine’s history—vital context for modern conflict analysis. ([90:07])

Conclusion

This episode weaves expert legal analysis with lively, relatable dialogue, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the latest in international diplomacy, U.S. federalism under strain, and the cultural/political ripples of high-profile secrecy battles. Listeners come away both informed and entertained, with plenty of food for thought about the shifting ground of national security and governance.

For further reading/listening, see www.lawfareblog.com and check out Lawfare’s other podcasts.