The Lawfare Podcast: Rational Security - The “Altered State” Edition Release Date: July 16, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Rational Security, the Lawfare Institute delves into pressing national security issues with co-hosts Ben Wittes, Scott R. Anderson, and returning guest Eric Charmela. The discussion centers around significant policy shifts in the Trump administration concerning Ukraine, sweeping personnel cuts at the State Department, and the contentious airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This comprehensive summary captures the essence of their conversation, enriched with notable quotes and timestamps for reference.

1. Shifting Sands: Trump’s Pivot on Ukraine

Overview

The episode opens with an analysis of President Trump’s evolving stance on Ukraine amidst heightened tensions with Russia. The hosts explore the recent agreement to supply Ukraine with Patriot missiles and other U.S.-made weapons, funded by European allies, marking a notable shift from previous skepticism towards supporting Ukraine.

Key Points

• Diplomatic Recalibration: Eric Charmela outlines how Trump’s early administration exhibited skepticism towards Ukraine, pressuring Ukrainian officials for concessions to encourage a ceasefire with Russia. Recent weeks, however, have seen a warming of rhetoric and a willingness to provide substantial military support to Ukraine.

  “Trump has been a little more, at least to my ear, openly critical of Putin... we are still willing to provide the support and provide these sorts of arms that's essential to Ukraine's defense.”
  (11:10)

• European Involvement: The agreement to have Europeans fund U.S. weapons for Ukraine represents a strategic maneuver to distribute the financial burden, potentially increasing the policy’s durability.

• Contributory Factors: The pivot is attributed to effective European diplomacy, increased Russian military pressure on Ukraine, and internal political dynamics within the U.S., including congressional Republican support for sanctions.

Notable Quotes

• "We have a lot of backroom diplomacy trying to iron out this deal... the Europeans deserve a lot of credit."
  (11:10) — Eric Charmela

• "I think Trump has a good sense of when something is damaging his image... that puts him in a position where..."
  (22:45) — Scott R. Anderson

2. Deep Cuts: State Department’s Massive Personnel Reductions

Overview

The conversation shifts to the State Department's recent announcement of cutting approximately 1,350 foreign and civil service positions in Washington D.C., part of a broader effort to make the department leaner and more efficient. This restructuring has significant implications for American diplomacy and the functioning of national security apparatus.

Key Points

• Scope of Cuts: Scott R. Anderson details the scale of the reductions, highlighting that combined with voluntary departures, the cuts could exceed 20% of the State Department’s workforce in D.C.

• Impact on Operations: Eric Charmela emphasizes the chaotic nature of the cuts, where positions were eliminated based on organizational needs rather than employee performance, leading to the dismissal of competent staff members.

  "These reductions in force riffs basically... trying to say, like, what parts of our body can we cut off and have the least damage to our overall mission."
  (46:56) — Eric Charmela

• Morale and Functionality: Ben Wittes observes that morale at the State Department has plummeted, reaching an all-time low, exacerbated by the dismantling of crucial offices and the National Security Council.

  "Morale is at an extreme low... We're in for really rocky times ahead."
  (52:01) — Eric Charmela

• Administrative Chaos: The restructuring undermines the coordination between agencies, as evidenced by the Pentagon’s unilateral suspension of military aid to Ukraine, highlighting the detrimental effects of the cuts.

Notable Quotes

• "It's a dramatic change in how it's structured, how it's operated far more than even the changes instituted by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson eight years ago."
  (52:01) — Ben Wittes

• "We're just totally busting up that apparatus... it's very disturbing from the standpoint of the continued independence of these agencies."
  (53:57) — Eric Charmela

3. Strike or Smoke? The Controversial Iran Airstrikes

Overview

The third major topic addresses the Trump administration’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21 and the ensuing debate over their effectiveness. While the administration heralded the strikes as a decisive blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions, intelligence reports suggest a more nuanced and limited impact.

Key Points

• Administration’s Claim: President Trump and Defense Secretary Lynch proclaimed the strikes as a historic success, claiming significant, possibly definitive, setbacks to Iran’s nuclear program.

  "President Trump... was very clear, we are not footing the bill for this anymore."
  (05:30) — Ben Wittes (contextual)

• Intelligence Community’s Assessment: In contrast, Eric Charmela cites media reports and intelligence sources that indicate the strikes may have only temporarily delayed Iran’s nuclear progress, with facilities still operational and recovery underway.

  "We're not going to get anywhere fast... there's still a lot of questions about what we've accomplished."
  (66:33) — Scott R. Anderson

• Public and Political Ramifications: The conflicting narratives between the administration and the intelligence community have sparked concern over the credibility and transparency of government communications, raising questions about future policy directions and military strategies.

• Strategic Implications: The strikes have implications for regional stability and U.S.-Israel relations, with the administration possibly aiming to deter further Israeli military action by portraying the strikes as a sufficient deterrent.

Notable Quotes

• "This is deeply disturbing... an incredibly large scandal."
  (65:53) — Scott R. Anderson

• "The President and the Secretary of Defense's obliteration comments are clearly analytically incorrect."
  (72:15) — Scott R. Anderson

• "OCD is debilitating, but it's also highly treatable with the right kind of therapy."
  (41:02) — Advertisement Skipped

(Note: The quote above is from an advertisement segment and is not included in the content summary.)

Conclusion and Reflections

The episode concludes with the hosts reflecting on the precarious state of U.S. national security policy under the Trump administration. Ben Wittes and Scott R. Anderson express deep concerns about the administration’s approach to foreign policy, bureaucratic restructuring, and its impact on national security institutions.

Key Points

• Institutional Damage: The restructuring of the State Department and conflicts with the intelligence community signify a broader erosion of institutional integrity and effectiveness in U.S. foreign policy.

• Future Implications: The hosts worry about the long-term consequences of current policies, including weakened diplomatic channels, reduced operational readiness, and diminished trust in government institutions.

• Call to Action: Ben Wittes emphasizes the importance of supporting institutional memory and expertise through initiatives like the Lawfare Public Service Fellowship, aiming to preserve critical national security knowledge.

Notable Quotes

• "This is an effort to make government as personal as possible and to reduce its capacity to act independent of the leader."
  (55:28) — Scott R. Anderson

• "When you're being attacked for that... it's just crazy."
  (66:33) — Scott R. Anderson

Object Lessons and Recommendations

The hosts conclude with recommendations for further reading and podcasts:

• Public Service Fellowship: A fundraising initiative to support individuals exiting government service with valuable insights and expertise.

• Recommended Reading: Hanif Abdurra Aqeeb’s New Yorker article, "Zoran Madani and Mahmoud Khalil are in on the joke," which explores the experiences of Muslim Americans under the current administration.

• Podcast Suggestion: The Rest is History by Dominic Sandbrook and Tom Holland, praised by Eric Charmela for its engaging exploration of various historical events.

Closing Remarks

The episode underscores the intricate interplay between policy shifts, institutional integrity, and national security. The hosts urge listeners to remain informed and supportive of efforts to uphold robust and effective governmental institutions amidst turbulent political landscapes.

For more insights and detailed analyses, visit Lawfare's website and explore their array of podcasts and written content.